Stan Wawrinka has already defended a decent chunk of his 2015 points, but he is also just two wins away from defending the Roland Garros title. A substantial roadblock on Friday, however, comes in the form of Andy Murray.
Despite buckets of rain in Paris earlier this week, the bottom half of the French Open is back on schedule. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will have a day off before semifinal action will begin on Friday, when they meet for the 16th time in their careers.
Murray owns a slight 8-7 lead in the head-to-head series, but he is 0-3 in their last three matches and has not defeated the Swiss since a three-set victory at the 2012 Japan Open. Wawrinka beat the Scot twice in 2013 before most recently getting the job done 7-6(4), 6-4 to clinch a spot in the semis of the World Tour Finals last fall.
Of course, Murray’s struggles in London can be eagerly explained. He was eager to get off the indoor hard courts and head to Belgium to prepare on clay for the Davis Cup final, which visiting Great Britain ultimately won–thanks mostly to Murray. Once a novice on the red stuff, has transformed himself on this surface over the past few years. The world No. 2 is through to a third consecutive semifinal at Roland Garros following wins this fortnight over Radek Stepanek, Mathias Bourgue, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, and Richard Gasquet. Murray shockingly required five sets to get past both Stepanek and Bourgue, but he surrendered just a single set in his next three efforts combined.
Wawrinka also got off to a rough start, managing to outlast Lukas Rosol in a five-set opener. The recent Geneva champion (he beat Rosol in that final before facing the Czech again two days later) followed that up with defeats of Taro Daniel, Jeremy Chardy, Viktor Troicki, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. He needs to more wins to defend the title at Roland Garros.
“I think it gives me more confidence, for sure, and less pressure because I (have already) won it,” Wawrinka said of last year’s triumph. “So I have a different mentality this year. I’m feeling way better.”
But the No. 3 seed does not appear to be playing better. Although he has certainly picked up the pace since stumbling to a victory over Rosol, his season remains underwhelming. Even on his best surface of clay, Wawrinka lost early in Madrid and Rome after getting clobbered by Rafael Nadal in the Monte-Carlo quarters. His run to the Geneva title was far from dominant even against mostly lackluster opposition. Murray, on the other hand, pushed Novak Djokovic to three sets in Madrid and upset the world No. 1 in the Rome final.
With new life in the wake of his scares against Stepanek and Bourgue, an ever-improving Murray looks poised to reach a well-deserved French Open final for the first time in his career.
Pick: Murray in 4
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WWW?
The men’s semi finals are on Friday, not on Thursday
oh wow. Weird.
Why weird Ricky?
It would have been grossly unfair to all those people who bought expensive tickets for Friday months ago specifically to see the SFs and presumably RG would have had to refund etc. etc.
Forgot it was the Aussie that did that
Wawa in 5. Which I fear will hinder his final chances. Unless thiem can work some magic
Should be a great match, but I like Murray in 3.
Stanimal for the win in four!! ALLEZ STAN!!
Stan could win the title if he plays like last year but I just don’t see it happening.Murray in four .
CB in four.
I think Murray will win in 4 or 5 sets, but I expect this to be a good one.
Wawrinka has been the better player so far and I think he will end up winning it if he continues to play the way he’s played. Murray hasn’t been very consistent with his serve and he needs to be in this one to win. Should be a close one, but I’m picking Stan to win in 4, I think he has played himself into form and looks more and more like the guy who won last year.
Wawrinka wins in 4, but it should be a very close match either way
Murray in 5. Respect stan the hewg fkn man
Thread is split at 5-4 for Murray.
CB will win.
#Herbert
Why are there two separate articles on picking this SF?????
This will not stand, you know, this aggression will not stand, man!
Regardless, Muzza leads prognosticators here 9-7.
Murray:
RD, Pieman, NNY, Scoot, Big Al, ratatouille, 64Aces, nats, ednumbers
CB:
Hawkeye, Kimbus, BG, TW, VR, Adam Leigh, Pete Ziebron (any relation to Lebron?)
CB will win.
#Herbert
Dammit this TANSGRESSION will not stand!!!!
Gaaaaaah T-R-A-N-S-G-R-E-S-S-I-O-N
(why does spell-check never work the RIGHT way????)
#TooMuchCaffeine
#Excited
sometimes I swear we are related. #caffeinatedfam #Excited
love your posts, hawks! 🙂 🙂
Murray hitting his forehand well ! He has not started slow today as he is aware of the danger. Stan is hitting the ball HARD.
Murray hits a wicked cc backhand to finally hold serve.
Stan is moving into the court and taking the ball very early to hit winners.
Murray comes back with a strong ROS stepping into the court to take the ball early.
Ooh nice break from Andy.
Murray with the chance to break.
Great point from both guys and Andy gets the break!
Andy hit an insane volley with his back turned at the net to get the break!
Both guys playing well.
Stan has an opening now on Murray’s serve.
briefly
Murray’s defensive and returning capabilities keeping him marginally ahead so far.. Impressed with Murray’s forehand too!
Stan needs to get 3-4% more consistent and this can turn in his favor. He is also using the drop shot to good effect
Kuh-moon Ahdeh!!!
Stan hitting SICK backhands CC but Murray’s backhand slice is SO good! He is forcing errors from Stan. Top-level clay court tennis from the British no.1
defense wins championships
Yes! Good stuff from Murray!
The commentators persist in referring to Andy as the Ecossais (Scotsman) the whole time) never Brittanic
Stan’s FH not in full gear at the moment.
Let’s see how it fares over the course of the match!
It’s becoming quite a mess watching both the matches simultaneously.
Murray just got a TV warning. So he serves An ace!
Stan is back in it fighting to break.
Very bad optics! #confused #aggravated
First set to Murray after quite the battle!
Novak is just blowing Thiem off the court.
What’s more I was posting comments on the wrong thread.
Come on, Andy. HOLD. yessssss
Now, time for Stan to win a set ?? second set rooting for Stan.
lol…you’re funny RC haha
6-4 to Murray but the margins are so thin in this match. Even a 2-3% improvement in Stan’s consistency can change the match
oh, I’d be happy, vr. Cheering for more sets o’ tennis! And a dramatic comeback by somebody.
Set 2: Novak 5 winners 2 UE , Thiem 6 winners 6 UE… and the score was 6-1….hmmmmm…. Thiem winning 22% first serve points and Djoko winning 100% second serves pnts
I’m not holding my breath Stan can turn this round.
HOW efficient was that from Andy Murray!! The quality of ROS was majestic.
#TheMostAgressiveReturneOnTour
Yes, Andy’s ROS has really been so important in this match.
Masterclass by Murray and finally some resistance from Thiem!
Stan really feeling the heat…. not hitting freely at all now….
stan looks really down to me…don’t see him getting back into this…
Allez Stanley. No time to go away. #knuckledownsport
Stan just needs one break back to get some momentum and he can turn this around. Murray playing very well but Stan is annoying me with the bunt returns ten feet out on break point chances. I dunno why but it seems to me like he doesn’t have as much energy right now. I want him to start to get more pumped up. Credit to Andy for playing well though he has earned this lead. I just haven’t seen enough bombs from Stan yet especially on the serve like Murray is an awesome returner and all but Wawrinka hasn’t been pummeling enough big serves imo. Also he should be going more to Andy’s forehand. Murray is crushing his backhand but his forehand has been still going kind of short although he has hit some big forehands as well.
Like there. Why didn’t he go to Murray’s forehand? Damnit I didn’t want to see another Murray Djokovic final lol.
me neither !! i really don’t enjoy their matches..
stan’s serve has been pretty disappointing today as has his ros…
yeah serve’s been pretty bad…on the contra, Murray’s ROS has been phenomenal..
perfect storm for stan. he has not done nearly enough attacking murray’s second serve either…
They switched to Novak/Thiem in time for me to see Novak get the break. He’s closing in on the win, although Thiem made it interesting in the third set.
Murray is playing the way I thought he would.
He wins the second set. Stan needs to regroup but it’s an uphill battle now.
Murray is finally the one up two sets!
Good point. Can’t see any way WaWa will win three sets in a row.
No…Stan can’t hit through Murray today and Murray is in his head now. I want Murray to win in straight sets and conserve energy for the battle on Sunday. If Stan can’t play the highest level, so be it…Murray is more reliable and he will at least deliver against Novak.
Now or never, Stan. Get some momentum going into the 3rd for a dramatic comeback!
stan’s body language is very negative out there right now..i see him going down in straights if this continues and it looks like it will..
stan’s ros has been inexplicable today…
He knows it, too. #sadisstan
would be nice to see just one great set of tennis rc…
actually stan is looking like pre magnus norman stan out there. like he lost self-belief very early on and couldn’t make even small adjustments that would have helped him
I do hope that Murray can close this out in three sets. He does need to conserve energy for the final. Even if Stan could somehow come back, he would not have anything left for the final.
I make no bones about it. I thought Murray would win and he has been the better player today. I am just surprised at how easy it’s been.
I wonder if Stan is feeling the pressure of defending his title.
no, that happened in the early rounds
Nole. ? is through to the final.
Well, I picked Andy as the finalist from the lower half, based on Rome. He’s the one I feared the most after Rafa withdrew. Wait… Stan is mounting a small resistance, I think.
JMac just said that conditions have hurt Stan more in this match.
minimal at best
Stan blows hot and cold and he’s not had a great season so far.
From the expert of “blowing hot”.
Heeeere comes Stanimal!!!!
#NID
Mats Wilander is a terrible commentator.
Andy too good!
the most extraordinary thing for me is stan’s failure to attack murray’s second serve….just inexplicable…
Allez Stan! bp for him…
Got it, amy! we get a 4th set hehehe
That’s what I was thinking but hey he’s got the third. What he’s gotta do is start the fourth set well. He just double faulted to start it. Needs to not do more of that. He’s gotta keep the momentum. Damnit Murray with his defense. C’mon Stan get out of this 0-30 hole
Heeeere comes Stanimal!!!!
Set point.
#NID
Stan will win.
#Herbert
Hawks. Do me a favour and stop jinxing Muzza.
Don’t forget, I said he might choose to go the long way round and need five sets. 🙂
set stan!!! he injected himself with self-belief….
ALLEZ STAN HE IS PUMPED!!
KIND OF LIKE I AM
chapeau, ??
Sneak attack by andy for 0-40
15-40
#StanWillWin
if stan had served better today the scoreline would look very different….so few free points on serve for him
I know right! He’s just kicking it in
Are you kidding me Stan. Come on really? So sloppy it’s not even funny. Alright he saves one BP. Save another Stanimal. Alright he saves another. Damnit. Another error. Shitty game from Stan. You gotta be kidding me. He needs to break back FAST.
Oh snap. Stan dug himself a hole first game.
One set is all we get from Stan, I think now.
Stan is so good at killing his own momentum. Not a good thing.
Andy has some titanic confidence going at this point in the match. Andy’s not missing anything wow.
Virtual MP for Muzza.
#StanWillWin
VMP #2.
If Stan had lost that game he would’ve been done. Now he still has a shot. Come on Wawrinka!!
Wawrinka can’t hit a backhand pass right now.
Drop shot brilliance, Andy.
Serving well too. Easy hold. 3-1
finally stan tries to mainline a second serve return – he misses but he has to do it…
at 30-30 stan has an easy second serve and he just bunts it back…unbelievable tactics!!
it’s all over …
Andy has been the more consistent player today and that was a big key. He also kept his temper under control with a minimum of outbursts.
That’s a first. 🙂
Have a strange feeling that will all change on Sunday.
Done
You mean Murray will turn back to being Murray on Sunday and lose to Djokovic tamely?
Stan just isn’t consistent enough. This sucks. I don’t know how he won last year. I do but holy cow he cannot consistently hit good shots today. Murray about to win. Damnit.
That has been the problem with Stan lately. He can’t produce his best tennis on a consistent basis and that will really show up in a slam match.
Congrats to Rafa and The Big Four reunited on Monday.
Bravo Andy!
Congrats to me! Andy in 4 it is!
Well done Andy!
Congratulations to me! I had Andy winning in 4 sets!
?
Benny,
I just wanted to say commiserations to you in stan’s loss. I know you are a big fan and it’s never easy to see your guy lose in a big match.
Thanks. At least we will see a first time FO winner.
Good point! 🙂
Stuart Fraser ‏@stu_fraser 44s45 seconds ago
Ten days ago, Andy Murray was two points away from going out in 1st round to 37yo Radek Stepanek. Now he is in the final here for first time
Ben Rothenberg ‏@BenRothenberg 1m1 minute ago Paris, France
Novak Djokovic & Andy Murray will have now met in the finals of all four Grand Slam events. Murray has won the ones outside Australia. #RG16
Bravo Andy! His first FO final – impressive performance.
Yeah, me too — comissers to a great tennis fan, Benny G.
https://tenngrand.com/2016/06/02/french-open-sf-expert-picks-murray-vs-wawrinka/#comment-119998
https://tenngrand.com/2016/06/02/french-open-sf-expert-picks-murray-vs-wawrinka/#comment-119999
Rafa will be ranked #4 when the rankings come out on Monday with Stan not making the final.
With a win on Sunday, Murray can draw within 7000 points of Nole.
#Excited
Go Andy take your first French open on Sunday
I don’t know what to expect on Sunday
Am I the only one here who thinks Sunday is 50 50
I mean it isn’t 50-50. But I doubt you’re the only one who thinks Murray will upset him.
I feel he has fair chance actually
he does for sure..all the pressure is on nole and he lost in rome…
what difference will andy having an extra day’s rest because of the schedule make??
is it a big factor?