French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

After the Roland Garros draw ceremony was held, the top-half semifinal was expected to pit Novak Djokovic against Rafael Nadal. But Nadal’s withdrawal opened the door for other contenders and in walked Dominic Thiem, who will face the world No. 1 on Friday.

Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they battle for a place in the French Open title match on Friday.

Djokovic is sweeping the head-to-head series 2-0 thanks to a pair of 6-3, 6-4 wins; first at the 2014 Shanghai Masters and then earlier this spring on the hard courts of Miami. In their most recent showdown, however, Thiem deserved better than to have bowed out via such a routine scoreline. The 22-year-old converted only one of 15 break-point opportunities, whereas Djokovic capitalized on three of his six chances. In the total points category, the world No. 1 took 52 percent to Thiem’s 48 percent.

Thiem certainly benefited from some luck when Rafael Nadal’s third-round withdrawal opened things up in the second quarter of the Roland Garros bracket, but it is not as if the Austrian needs any help to achieve great success on a consistent basis. He was already doing that long before this fortnight–just not on this kind of stage. Thiem is second on tour behind Djokovic in match victories in 2016 and boasts three titles, giving him six for his career. The world No. 15’s final tune-up for this tournament resulted in the Nice winner’s trophy and he has maintained momentum with Paris defeats of Inigo Cervantes, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Alexander Zverev, Marcel Granollers, and David Goffin.
Thiem 2
“He’s one of the leaders of the new generation,” Djokovic said of his upcoming opponent. “I’m sure he’s very motivated to show himself and others that he deserves to be at the top and compete for biggest titles. He’s playing the best tennis of his life–no doubt about it. The results are showing that.

“He’s played a lot of matches, especially on clay, which is his favorite surface. I’m sure he’s going to give it all in (the) semis. But I have something to fight for, as well.”

What Djokovic is fighting for, of course, is the career Grand Slam. The top-seeded Serb came within one win of lifting the Coupe des Mousquetaires for the first time last year only to get derailed by an on-fire Stan Wawrinka. He has put himself within two victories this time around following victories over Yen-Hsun Lu, Steve Darcis, Aljaz Bedene, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Tomas Berdych.
Djoker
“It’s gonna be unbelievably tough,” Thiem admitted. “I think he’s a little bit on a different level than all the other players.”

“It’s going to be a good one,” Djokovic added.

But how good can Thiem make it? Although the underdog has crucially managed to avoid any energy-sapping five-setters so far, he dropped sets to Cervantes, Zverev, Granollers, and Goffin–with his first two sets against the Belgian especially tough in both the physical and mental departments. Djokovic, on the other hand, has been in complete cruise control aside from a one-set hiccup against Bautista Agut. Expect something similar to their Miami contest, featuring plenty of entertainment and Djokovic raising his level in pressure-packed moments at the expense of an adversary who has never before been in this situation.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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132 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

  1. Ben Rothenberg ‏@BenRothenberg 59s60 seconds ago Paris, France
    #RG16 Friday schedule…simultaneous semis:

    Chatrier 1pm:
    Serena-Bertens
    3pm
    Wawrinka-Murray

    Lenglen 1pm:
    Muguruza-Stosur
    3pm
    Djokovic-Thiem

    #SanjuWasRight

  2. Thiem has shown himself to be mentally resilient and cool – physically he appears to recover well. Expecting two great SF matches on the men’s side.

    ditto to Ricky’s pick.

  3. “Complete cruise control” is a bit complimentary considering Lu and Darcis both had chances to steal the first set and that Novak struggled to maintain leads at times (also, how sad is it that Berdych was more competitive than Steve Darcis?)

  4. Thiem starts slow…and usually loses the first set…not going to help him with Novak…

    Novak seems to have some difficulty playing the one-handed backhand players…for that reason I expect Thiem to make it a bit more competitive and steal a set from Nole (provided Novak experienced one of his temper related self-destruction moments of late…)

    BTW.. Thiem doesn’t really believe he could beat Novak…these youngsters should read from Delpo textbook…he never stopped believing in that 2009 USO match…

  5. Maybe I’m crazy, feels very possible that Thiem can push Novak to 5 sets. No matter how well he plays, Djoko always has a mental lapse during the match.

    Novak in 4

    • I think novak will win in 3 sets. I agree with Ricky. It is possible for Thiem to take a set if he goes out just goes for his shots or if Novak has a meltdown or mental lapse.

      Either the occasion may get to Thiem or he will feel no pressure sand come out aggressive and swinging for the fences.

    • Mmmm, maybe for Rafa but Nole rarely plays that far behind the baseline even when in defensive mode so Lenglen won’t be a factor.

  6. if thiem plays the way he does today, I think he can at least get a set, maybe go to 5. I dont think Djokovic has been very impressive, even today it was mostly Berdych being woeful, this is by far the toughest opponent Djokovic has faced so far. Thiem obv needs to convert on his break points, but I think his Serve is good enough to keep up and he has played really well. Djokovic will probably (sadly) win in 4 or 5, but this should be a really great match and not lopsided.

  7. Suzanne lenglen may make it easier for Thiem. He can hit through Novak here. Thiem has to start strong.

    Thiem has played today on Suzanne and never played on chartier so it may prove advantageous to him.

    Andy wawrinka deserves bigger and better billing . It’s no 2 and 4 afterall

  8. can’t see thiem beating nole unless nole has an on court nervous breakdown. thiem plays some great shots and has a lot of power but he also makes too many unforced errors. he was nearly down 2 sets to love against goffin. if goffin can nearly be ahead by that score you’d have to say that nole could win in 3, maybe 4.

  9. Can’t blame this one on corporate seats, lunch or traffic.

    Today’s indefensible boorish French RG crowd don’t deserve a Grand Slam in France…

    Simon Cambers ‏@scambers73 34m34 minutes ago
    Tickets for Djokovic-Thiem and Muguruza-Stosur on Court Suzanne Lenglen are 20 euros tomorrow, accessible to grounds-pass holders too

    For a slam semi-final???

    You cannot be serious.

    • british tv were saying they had slashed the prices to 10 euros and were encouraging us all to get across the channel…
      bit of a joke no?

      • Considering that fans were hoping for a Rafa/Novak semifinal, I guess I can understand people maybe not thinking this is going to be a “must-see” match.

        However, if one is a tennis fan then this would still be worth watching. I also think that the French had high hopes for Tsonga to get through after Rafa pulled out with an injury.

        The French are all about their own!

  10. Goffin has been playing much better than anyone Djokovic has faced so far, so beating him the way Thiem did was very impressive.

    Nothing against Ferrer or Berdych, but both have been terrible this season. This is by far the toughest test that Djokovic has faced so far, he’s played maybe 1 1/4 good matches and has had the easiest schedule ever for a grand slam up to this point. I think Djokovic needs to play a lot better if he’s going to win in 3, otherwise I don’t really get why people think this is such an easy match that everyone makes it out to be.

    • he nearly went down 2 sets to love to goffin! and he lost a set to granollers! rba played some very good tennis against nole – you’re underestimating him there. thiem will be a test but if he can lost a set to granollers and nearly lose 2 on the bounce to goffin then nole can do it in 3 or 4. those could be tough and hard fought sets so i don’t think anyone is saying it will be easy.

    • All I can say in response is – Goffin ain’t Novak! He’s a big step up in class! Thiem has not faced him in best of five set match in a slam. We have seen how tough it is for the other top players to take out Novak.

      Thiem is going to be tested in a way that he has not been yet. Also, we have seen too many times how Novak looks vulnerable and not at his best and then he raises his game to a whole new level in the semis and finals.

  11. This will be a dogfight. Thiem will give him a tough match and his lack of experience at this level along with Djokoviv’s ability to play his best when it matters most, will lead to the Austrian’s undoing.

    Thiem engaged Novak in long rallies on a hard court and played Novak tough. The suface will allow him to do that more effectively. He stood on the baseline to return Novak’s serve in Miami but he is far more comfortable returning from deep behind the baseline. He will be able to do that tomorrow and his returns are good. He will be able to engage Novak in Long rallies …Thiem has defend pretty well and his backhand slice, though far from perfect, will allow him to stay in rallies for longer. He MUST improve his backhand slice in future but the good thing for him is that Novak is not the most brutal in terms of punishing weak slices.

    I hope Thiem has plenty of energy to have a go at the world no.1. First slam semi will be a nervous occasion for him, no doubt. Go Thiem!

  12. Djoko in five. Thiem has the power to hit through Djoko, but standing so far behind the baseline makes him vulnerable to Djoko’s dropshots.

    Actually, I feel that for Thiem, Goffin is a tough opponent because Goffin takes the ball very early, earlier than Djoko, just a bit later than Kei, and Goffin is very aggressive, attacking very often.

    Djoko is less aggressive and likes to take his time before attacking, Thiem likes long rallies too so the match will be more about who wins the rallies, with Djoko throwing in dropshots to win some easy points.

    Thiem is touted by many as the next FO winner, after the likes of Rafa/Djoko retired or faded away. We’ll see how he fares vs Djoko in a slam.

      • i think i would be surprised a bit if it goes 5 unless nole is very nervous. thiem is a future great and can hit some amazing shots. he has great power which will favour him in heavy conditions but he makes too many unforced errors right now. also he frequently doesn’t use his power when it could help him…
        in a year or 2 he’s going to be incredible and is already one of my favourite players.

  13. Djokovic in 3. He’s paid his dues, Thiem hasn’t. Thiem is a very good player, certainly top 10 material. Maybe even top 5 for awhile, considering the options. But he sure ain’t Fed, Nadal or Djoker. Possibly a Murray.

    • Ramara,

      Thank you for saying that! I am do glad that someone finally just came right out and reminded everyone that Thiem sure ain’t Fed, Nadal or Novak, possibly including Murray!

      Look, I like this kid. I think he’s the real deal with serious potential to do great things in this sport. But I do not think he can hang with the top players in a best of five set match just yet.

      There is a specific skill set when it comes to winning slams. Thiem got a lot of help with Rafa having to withdraw. That opened up the draw. Credit to him for taking advantage of it.

      I just think that it takes a lot to beat the top players. Stan played the match of his life to win last year. That is what it took to beat Novak.

      I do not think Thiem is there yet. However, I am reminded of Jerzy Janowicz in the 2012 Wimbledon getting to the semis and playing Murray. That year both Rafa and Fed were knocked out early. That opened up the draw. JJ took a set off Murray. He played a really good match and everyone was making all sorts of predictions that he would be in the top and win this and win that. Well, where is he now?

      I do think that Thiem can be a future great. But there is more work to do. Some perspective is the order of the day!

      • I wanted to clarify that in my previous post I meant to say that people were predicting JJ to be in the top TEN! Not just the top.

        I also wanted to add that Thiem has won 250 and 500 titles so far. This is a huge step up. He’s got a great record this year and is going in the right direction.

        • Yeah… beating Djokovic in a slam is something else. He may pose a threat tomorrow or he may not… we don’t even know he will handle the situation. Delpo pushed federer to 5 sets in 2009 when not many were expecting that. It would be good if Thiem can at least push Novak. He has the tools to do that.

      • Thiem is no Janowicz. Janowicz hadn’t done close to what Thiem has done before his Wimby run. Jerzy still has never won a title while Thiem already has six career titles with five coming on clay. All Janowicz had done prior to Wimbledon was the one great run at the Paris Masters event at the end of 2012 where he lost in the final to Ferrer after taking down Murray earlier in the tournament. I don’t think Thiem will get smoked this match. It might happen but I think at this point he’s playing with house money and will come out swinging. He may do something like power through the first set but lose the next three. My pick is Djoker in 4 but Thiem can do some damage in my opinion.

        • I am well aware that there are real differences between JJ and Thiem. I believe that I gave Thiem credit for what he’s done, which is more than what Jerzy did. I did not say they were equal.

          The general point that I was trying to make is simply to have some perspective. I am not putting Jerzy and Thiem in the same category. I am merely being a bit cautious in reminding people that it makes sense to not get too carried away with a young player. People were making a lot of predictions about Jerzy. I know that he had some injuries, but that is not why he has not done as well as expected. It’s because of his volatile temperament. I remember cautioning those who were getting carried away with predictions. I did not think he had the temperament to succeed in this sport.

          In some ways Jerzy reminded me of Marat Safin. He had such enormous talent, but his emotions got the better of him.

          I think Ricky made an excellent point to the effect that Delpo actually beat Fed. That was an achievement, especially since Fed was still playing very well and winning slams.

          I am not taking anything away from Thiem all.
          I think he will actually succeed in this sport.

          • Wouldn’t put Jerzy anywhere near Marat. Marat was a criminal, he should have won so much more.

          • Mikkers,

            Again my comment is being taken too literally! I know full well that Safin was far above Jerzy! That goes without saying. Just because mention someone as a reference does not mean that I am putting them on an equal footing.

            Safin was one of the most gifted players I had seen up to that point in time. He did win 2 slams. But his temperament got the better of him and so did a man named Fed!

  14. RBA can’t serve, if he did he was going to go take Djokovic to 5 and maybe have a shot. Djokovic was terrible for most of that game. and I love Bautista Agut and hes a real fun player to watch, but his serve is one of the worst for any top 50 player in Tennis, even worse than the standard spaniard. Can’t beat any top player serving that slowly and badly

    Also, I am not sure why it would be embarrassing to lose 2 sets to Goffin, Goffin is a very good tennis player and has played well. either player djokovic would’ve faced today would’ve been his toughest test in this tourney.

    And I dont even care about the guy, but to disregard Thiem despite everything he has accomplished this year and the way he’s played is not paying attention to him or his game. Djokovic will win, and if he wins in 3 it wouldn’t be surprising- but then he’ll have to finally try and play a lot better is all im saying. he wont be getting another RBA or Berdbrain in this round, he’ll be getting someone who can matchup to him in more than 1 way

    • Novak doesn’t have to play his best in a fourth round match! RBA was never going to bear him. He did what he had to do.

      Nobody is dismissing Thiem out of hand. I see a lot of respect for him here. However, he is going up against the #1 player in the world. Anyone who has watched Novak knows how tough it is to take him out in a slam.

      Just ask Rafa! Even when he got the better of Novak, it was not easy!

      This is a big step up for Thiem. We will have to wait and see how he handles it.

      He’s got a bright future no matter what.

  15. Novak looks strange this year. Many players can break his
    serving game. He looked tired during the match. He won because of an easy draw. His opponents made their own mistake and unforced error. I am not a fan of both but believe Theme can win this match

  16. Novak will take the first two sets then Thiem will take the third.. making Novak lose his nerve throwing his racket and breaking the teeth of some hapless ball boy. He will be sent off from RG and his decline in tennis from thereon will be relentless.

    • I think it will be a great women’s final. Garbine is playing very well. She did beat serena at RG two years ago, so she will have that to give her confidence.

      Serena is a beast in slam finals.

  17. Boris Becker is wearing his I’M VERY SERIOUS face. I reckon the whole clan are worried in case they won’t get their big bonuses this year. I recall he looked like that last year.

  18. Thiem playing into Djoko’s hands, should slow down and not giving Djoko the pace that Djoko so likes.

    I think only Stan and Delpo could hit consistently with depth and pace to trouble Djoko. Rafa works by hitting slower heavy spinny shots on this court that doesnt allow Djoko to dictate.

  19. Unnecessary ‘in your face’ celebration when Thiem came close to breaking the Djokovic serve. It is a largely youngish crowd who have got into to see this and are rooting heavily for the underdog.

  20. You’d think one of them TC or NBC would broadcast Nole/Dom! and stay with it. dang. Both have Andy/Stan. Only a score to follow.

  21. Was kinda relying on Djokovic getting a bit nervous or something due to (burden of expectations bla bla bla) but no shit…he is in 5th gear today and wants his RG title.

    Thiem is playing stpid tactically as well. Perhaps trying to copy Stan

  22. Dont understand why Thiem keeps engaging in BH to BH exchanges with Djoko. Doesnt he know Djoko has one of the best DHBH in the game? Thiem has a better FH than the BH but prefers to camp at the BH corner and hits CC whole day long!

    Massive failure by his coach for not doing his homework and advises Thiem about it. He could just move his feet and hits his FH to change the dynamics of the rally. Serious brain cramp!

  23. TOO damn good from Djokovic. No matter how well Thiem plays here, it is irrelevant as this is beyond his capability.

  24. getting the Wawrinka-Murray Match here…is Thiem playing that badly or is Djokovic playing real well so far today?

  25. Thiem too inexperienced, made some poor shot selections. He’s not Rafa, so playing from so far behind the baseline and not having good anticipation skills will not help him even if he can move quickly (though no where near Rafa on clay and Djoko now).

  26. Actually Goffin has better skills and varieties than Thiem; Thiem just hits hard and tries to overpower or outhit his opponents, fits the bill of hard hitting tennis that Rafa mentioned. Its not going to work against the big four though unless on their off days.

  27. See, uses the FH and now he breaks Djoko’s serve! How many winners already from that FH now! Takes him so long to understand this! Not very bright player.

    • The kid just doesn’t know what to do out there. He needs to have a strategy going into a match like this.

      Thiem was not ready for this, but he will come out of it having learned a lot.

      I heard that Thiem will be ranked 7!

  28. Lucky’s analysis of what he is doing wrong so true.

    But good experience for him anyway. Bresnick concenrates on stamina and fitness. Thiem needs a good game plan strategist. Djokovic clan looking more relaxed. ha, ha. and his parents are in the box too.

  29. Thiem could have stolen the 3rd set were it not for poor shot selection.

    Too good from Novak and lots of lessons for Thiem…. he made his first slam SF so kudos.

  30. Had Thiem even taken a set, I’d have thought he could do something big at a major. But as it stands, he’s no better than the generation before him that is content at making Quarters/Semis occasionally. The game rests more on stamina today than it does on skill, so a bigger investment for this lot is going to be required in just getting the best physios money can buy.

  31. Murray plays better than Stan, he deserves to be in the final. Murray is the only one having a chance to catch Djoko in the race this year, it’ll be a Djoko/Murray race this year I feel.

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