French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Zverev

Both Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev probably feel like they should already be in the French Open final. One of them, however, will be ousted in the semis on Friday afternoon.

Nadal needed five sets to get past Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round, after which he outlasted world No. 1 Novak Djokovic 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6(4) on Tuesday night. That quarterfinal contest between the two all-time greats lasted four hours and 12 minutes. Fortunately for Nadal, he has two full days off prior to the semis and his first three matches–against Jordan Thompson, Corentin Moutet, and Botic van de Zandschulp–were walks in the park.

Zverev was one point away from being bounced out in the second round. The third-ranked German came back from the brink of defeat to beat Sebastian Baez 2-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 7-5. Zverev also got the best of Sebastian Ofner, Brandon Nakashima, and Bernabe Zapata Miralles to reach the last 16, where he upset Carlos Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(7) on Tuesday.

Needless to say, it has not been easy for either man.

But they have made it to semifinal Friday, and their reward is a 10th career head-to-head meeting. Nadal holds a 6-3 lead in the series, including 4-1 on clay. They faced each other twice last spring on the red stuff, with Zverev pulling off a 6-4, 6-4 upset in Madrid before Nadal–playing in far more favorable conditions–gained revenge in the form of a 6-3, 6-4 victory at the Madrid Masters.

Conditions should be back in the 35-year-old’s favor on Friday. His quarterfinal showdown against Djokovic was played late at night, but the first semifinal between Nadal and Zverev is scheduled for 2:45 pm local. That’s much better for the Spaniard’s game, even though–let’s be honest–it hardly matters what the situation is whenever he takes the court at Roland Garros. After all, Nadal is 110-3 lifetime at this tournament with 13 titles.

He can’t win No. 14 on Friday, but he can put himself in great position. And given his form throughout the fortnight and two day of rest following his hard-fought defeat of Djokovic, that is exactly what Nadal can be expected to do.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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22 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Zverev

  1. Not a great start but I’m not worried yet he just needs to get used to Zverev pace and serves. He’ll turn it around soon!! Vamos, Tafa!!

    • Hope so. until now he is not able to get a point on zverev’s serve. Hope he breaks back and takes first set somehow and not give sacha a belief.

  2. And Rafa strategy is to hold and be patient. He knows sooner or later Zverev will not continue serving like this and he will have his chances. He is not panicking yet! There is NO way Zverev can continue serving like this for four/five sets!! That kind of serving take a toll!!

  3. C what I told u guys?!!! Patience just patience!! Believe u ure man!! Expect Rafa”s level to dip too……we need to get used to Rafa”s moods and swings. But he knows what he’s doing out there and how to win!! Vamos, Rafa!! Mind I not sure I would want Rafa to play TB with Zverev”s serves, yikes!!

    I’m on the road so can’t watch just keeping up with the scores. Should be home in a few minutes!

  4. Rafa should move closer to the baseline to return second serves; he’s not adjusting his positions so Zverev doesn’t need to think much, just serve as Hugh as possible! He should at least create some doubts in Zverev’s head!

    He has wasted so many chances! His ROS has deteriorated even on clay.

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