French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

There was little doubt when the French Open draw came out that a semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal would come to fruition.

That is indeed the case, as the two all-time greats will square off for the 58th time in their careers on Friday evening.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series by an incredibly slim 29-28 margin. The fact that it could be all tied up after 58 meetings is fun to think about, but it is hardly the most relevant statistic. This is what matters: Nadal is 5-0 in their last five clay-court contests, while Djokovic is 10-0 in their last 10 matches on hard courts and grass. Nadal hasn’t won on anything other than clay since the 2013 U.S. Open final.

Good news for the Spaniard: we are once again only talking about clay.

In fact, it’s more like great news. Nadal’s perfect 5-0 mark on the slow stuff, which dates back to the start of 2017, also includes an 11-2 sets record at Djokovic’s expense. Their 2020 French Open matchup came in the final and the King of Clay dominated it 6-0, 6-2, 7-5. They most recently faced each other in last month’s Rome final, with Nadal recovering from a mid-match hiccup to triumph 7-5, 1-6, 6-3.

None of those results bode well for Djokovic. Conditions at a most unusual 2020 Roland Garros event–held in October instead of June–were far worse for Nadal, and he still had no trouble giving the Serb a free clay-court lesson. It is also no secret that Nadal is much tougher to beat in Paris than in Rome. Take 2020, for example. He lost to Diego Schwartzman in the Rome quarterfinals only to dominate the French Open without dropping a single set in the process–including a 6-3, 6-3, 7-6(0) semifinal beatdown of Schwartzman.

If Djokovic could not beat Nadal in Rome, what’s to say he can do it now?

His form, although decent, definitely doesn’t. The world No. 1 cruised through his first three matches of the fortnight in straight sets, but he lost a pair of tiebreakers to Lorenzo Musetti on Monday and then required three hours and 28 minutes to get past Matteo Berrettini 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5 in the quarters.

Nadal, on the other hand, has been entirely dominant. The third seed crushed Alexei Popyrin, Richard Gasquet, Cameron Norrie, and Jannik Sinner in straight sets to reach the last eight. Schwartzman ended Nadal’s French Open set streak at 36 on Wednesday, but the 34-year-old responded to that test by winning 30 of the match’s last 35 points en route to a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-0 victory.

With five more wins under his belt, Nadal is now 105-2 lifetime at Roland Garros. He is 13-0 in semifinal matches. Add finals to the mix and he is 26-0 in his career once he advances to this stage of the French Open.

There is no reason to think such perfection will end on Friday.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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43 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

    • Exactly!!! That’s y it’s better if he got break like at 4 all then he can serve for set, smh! This is so tragic

  1. Not looking good for either of them; this will be a > 4 hours match; I hope Tsitsipas wins his first slam this Sunday, if it’s not Rafa across the net.

  2. Sigh! I have lost all faith. This is the worst Friday ina long time and my weekend will il be even worse. Rafa, Rafa, Rafa!

  3. Djoko is the better player and deserves to win this match. Rafa’s game is crappy, well at least he makes it to four sets! But, I see a new slam winner this coming Sunday, Tsitsipas for the win!

  4. Sigh. That was garbage.
    It’s been like this all.tournament with him suddenly going walkabout mentally. I thought he might pull it back when his game suddenly reappeared at the end of the fourth set but he missed chances and this set he had zero serve and lost his way again.

    • He really needs to get his head sorted out because he plays brilliantly one minute then seems crippled by self doubt the next.

      • He played amazing tennis in the first set so it’s not his underlying level.that’s the problem.
        And his serve is simply a disaster area.

        • The serves certainly let him down and he knows it!! And if his serves t not working his game goes awry. Oh I’m just glad it’s over for me

    • So it’s pathetic to celebrate another players success and achievement If it’s not Rafa, got it.

      You need to look closely you are they intolerant, self-absorbed pathetic fool.

    • amy,

      When you have nothing else in your life and you are an empty shell of a human being, you come here and post anonymously like the wretched soul you are. This is a pathetic loser who has absolutely nothing better to do.

      Just feel pity for the poor slob.

        • amy,

          A very disturbed individual. If that is what you need to do to make yourself feel better, God help you.

          I was out for most of the afternoon, but I followed the score. I sensed it after the third set. It was not meant to be.,

          Hugs to you, too! With all that has happened in the last year with the pandemic, this is as you said, just a tennis match. Nobody died. It’s sad to see but it’s part of the sport.

          • Hugs darling!
            We’ll talk tomorrow.
            I am really tired now so need to get some sleep.
            Poor mira must have been practically up all night.
            I hope she’s ok.
            Love to you both nny and mira.
            Take good care of yourselves my darlings.
            Xxx

          • Heh heh…I was up to 4:30am amy!..and all i got was kick in the backside from Rafa!..Urgh!…Thank u so much Rafa!..This how u treated a loyal fan??..😉

            Btw,hugs to u too amy!..There goes our 21st!🙉

    • Nothing against the champion Rafa, just calling it as it is. This is a huge achievement and in my view ends the goat debate. But I speak to a rabid Rafa fan base who can’t accept this

      • You’re right Avn some of the rafa fans here are crazy unlike other places.

        They are immature or possessive something is wrong with them.

        Amy, nny etc are old lonely gals with just their cats so you can understand why they act this way just move on nothing good comes out from reasoning with this old lonely gals believe me I have tried years ago total waste of my time so I stopped.

        • Stanley,

          Still a misogynistic loser! Yawn! Get some new material you creep. Who has cats? How would you know?

          Old ladies? You are a lonely sad sack who has nothing and no one.

          I would feel sorry for you, but you are such trailer trash that I can’t bring myself to do it.
          LOL!

      • AVN,

        Whoever the hell you are, it takes a piece of trash to try to take digs at fans of a player who has lost.

        I don’t roll that way, thank God! You are full of shit and even you know it!

        This does not make your guy the goat. Nice try, but you have zero class. Not surprising.

    • Hey amy!…Yeah!…great to ‘talk’ to u too!…Sorry!..i was disappeared just like that!…Urgh!!…too painful too stick around amy!…Hope u’re ok over there!👋🥰

      Also much much congrats to RC,Big Al for Novak win!…Enjoy it guys!👍

      • To the sweetest, fairest, smartest tennis poster and Rafa fan – thank you, Mira Andi. I know you don’t particularly like Novak, but that doesn’t matter in our case. 🥰😊

  5. His problems are his serve and his BH! All tournament, in fact throughout this clay season they are the problems.

    Well he can’t always win, may have to stop at 20! He playing like this won’t do well on grass either! I hope he doesn’t drop out of top ten, I like to have his this record still ongoing!

    He playing like this will drop tons of points, esp he’s the defending champion at the USO and Canada. Well Rafa, take a good rest and then ponders what’s wrong with your game. Why so stingy when using your FH, and since your BH is so crappy why not move your legs more to hit your FH instead?

    Congrats to Djoko, he’s the better player this match and so wins it rightfully. But, I hope Tsitsipas wins the title this Sunday.

    • Oh for heaven’s sake! Really? Hope he doesn’t drop out of the top ten? Maybe he can’t get more than 20? Are you for real?

      With all that Rafa has done he does not deserve that. Good grief!

      • Why so angry? He’s not getting any younger and who knows how many more chances he will have? Also, he may want to start a family, and he said it himself, that he would like to be with his children as they grow up, and not wanting them to travel with him so often to tournaments.

        He has already won a lot, and as somebody mentioned earlier, win or loss, Rafa would get over it maybe after a few weeks or so. His fans should also do the same.

        After all, it’s just sports, and he can’t win all the time especially when he’s no longer that young.

        • Hmmm…Yeah!…Lucky has a point!..there’s a possibility too that he maybe want to start have a family…Maybe this loss will trigger it…but,maybe not!…Maybe this loss will make him more determine to win 1 more RG next year..Who knows!…Wallahuallam!

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