No. 1 – Rafael Nadal
No. 2 – Novak Djokovic
Nos. 3-4 – Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer have the inside track, but David Ferrer would be no worse than No. 4 if he wins the Rome title. Ferrer would climb to No. 3 if he takes the title and Wawrinka loses in the second round. Tomas Berdych would overtake Federer if the Czech prevails in Rome and the Swiss loses prior to the quarters.
Nos. 5-8 – Ferrer, Berdych, and Andy Murray are safe. With Juan Martin Del Potro out due to his wrist injury, Milos Raonic is one spot away from a top eight seed. Currently in the Rome third round, Raonic would have to reach the semifinals to surpass Kei Nishikori for eighth.
Nos. 9-16 – Raonic, John Isner, Richard Gasquet (if he plays), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Grigor Dimitrov, Fabio Fognini, and Mikhail Youzhny are almost certainly safe. The race for the 16th seed, though, is a fierce one. Tommy Robredo is currently in the spot, but he left himself vulnerable by losing to Philipp Kohlschreiber on Tuesday. Tommy Haas would pass Robredo if the German beats Igor Sijsling in the second round. Ernests Gulbis would jump Robredo and Haas if the Latvian wins his next match against Stephane Robert and also fares better than Haas in the tournament. Kevin Anderson would have to make a run to the Rome semis from Federer’s section of the bracket.
Nos. 17-24 – After Haas, Gulbis, and Anderson, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nicolas Almagro, Gael Monfils, and Jerzy Janowicz are in good shape. Fernando Verdasco, the No. 24 seed as it stands now, is hanging on for dear life. Marin Cilic will surpass Verdasco if he defeats Jurgen Melzer in the Rome second round. Philipp Kohlschreiber would have to reach the semis this week in order to have a shot at top 24, but he has to face Djokovic on Thursday. Gilles Simon would have to do the same, which may be even less likely given that his Wednesday opponent is Nadal.
Nos. 25-32 – Cilic, Kohlschreiber, Simon, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Vasek Pospisil should be good to go. Andreas Seppi (a first-round loser to Haas) and Dmitry Tursunov (still in the tournament) are in some danger. Marcel Granollers and Ivan Dodig are still alive in the Rome second round and have the best chances of stealing a seed. Granollers would have to beat Andy Murray and then either Cilic or Melzer to reach the quarters. Dodig would have to beat Lukas Rosol and then Federer to make the last eight. Longshots Ivo Karlovic and Jeremy Chardy would have to reach the Rome semifinals in order to put themselves in seed contention. Santiago Giraldo, meanwhile, is currently in line for a seed if Gasquet withdraws.
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