French Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Bautista Agut, Raonic vs. Carreno Busta

It will be an all-Spanish affair when Rafael Nadal continues his French Open campaign against Roberto Bautista Agut during fourth-round action on Sunday. A quarterfinal spot is also up for grabs between Milos Raonic and Pablo Carreno Busta.

(17) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Nadal was unable to take the court for his third-round match at last year’s French Open. Nikoloz Basilashvili can only wish the story had been a similar one this time around. Instead, a 100 percent Nadal played and played ruthlessly well on Friday, demolishing the Georgian 6-0, 6-1, 6-0 in one hour and 30 minutes. Thus continued a dominant trek through the draw so far, as the nine-time Roland Garros champion has previously crushed Benoit Paire 6-1, 6-4, 6-1 and Robin Haase 6-1, 6-4, 6-3. Nadal is now 75-2 lifetime at this tournament and 20-1 on clay in 2017.

Up next for the world No. 4 on Sunday is a second career meeting with Bautista Agut. The only previous encounter between the two Spaniards came three years ago at the Madrid Masters, where Nadal cruised 6-4, 6-3. Bautista Agut did not exactly bulldoze his way into the last 16 this fortnight like his heavily-favored countryman, but he dropped only two total sets in victories over John Millman, Mikhail Kukushkin (in a fourth-set tiebreaker), and Jiri Vesely. The 17th seed is a stellar 24-9 this season with a title in Chennai. Although Bautista Agut is an all-court player, he is one of the few Spaniards who actually prefers hard courts to clay and he would obviously choose to contest this matchup on any other surface. Another routine day at the office should be in store for Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(5) Milos Raonic vs. (20) Pablo Carreno Busta

Raonic and Carreno Busta will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers on Sunday. All three of their previous meetings have gone the way of Raonic, who is a perfect 7-0 in total sets at the Spaniard’s expense with victories last year at Wimbledon, the China Open, and the Paris Masters.

But they have never faced each other on clay, and that is clearly a surface that favors Carreno Busta. On it the 21st-ranked Spaniard has reached five of his six career ATP finals, captured two of his three titles, and earned 20 of his 26 match victories this year. Carreno Busta booked a spot in the French Open fourth round by taking out Florian Mayer, Taro Daniel, and Grigor Dimitrov, surrendering just one set to Daniel in the process. Raonic advanced past Steve Darcis (three), Rogerio Dutra Silva (four), and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (second-set retirement). The sixth-ranked Canadian is a solid 22-6 this year but he has not yet lifted a winner’s trophy and all four of his clay-court losses have come in straight sets (to Marin Cilic, David Goffin, Alexander Zverev, and Tomas Berdych). Raonic will have a tougher time of keeping rallies to a minimum with big serve-forehand combinations that he has in the past against Carreno Busta, who will likely break him down from the back of the court in these conditions.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 4

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42 Comments on French Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Bautista Agut, Raonic vs. Carreno Busta

  1. Raonic’s results havent been that good lately. Hes lost a fair few matches follower ranked opponents and his only victories coming against much weaker opponents.

    Anyone who’s beats tenacious Dimii in a grand slam in straight sets is in serious good form.

    I think CB in 4 is possible but comes down to go well Raonic serves and how well CB handles it.

    I’m going with Raonic in 4 only because of the serve factor over 5 sets makes it hard even though all indicators point to a CB upset.

  2. My bracket pick is Raonic but I hope PCB wins – for Ed’s sake especially. 🙂

    And I think I said this somewhere else. I don’t think RBA will get more than 4 games. Rafa is in God Mode.

  3. Nadal in 4. It takes 3 sets of flawless tennis tonbeat RBA in straight sets. He’s no such and Nadal is no spring chicken.

    • Agut not good on clay, HC is his forte as he’s hitting very flat shots. He struggled against ARV at one of the clay masters recently and lost. I doubt Rafa is going to lose a set to him, whether Rafa is spring chicken or not. I think both Paire and Haase would fare better than Agut here when facing Rafa.

      • I agree with Lucky regarding RBA. We have to remember this is clay. If Rafa is seeing the ball as well as he was serving n his last match and striking his DTL and CC backhands the way he has, then I don’t know his match ch RBA can do.

        He’s a quality player. The first one Rafa has faced. But I don’t think he can get a set off Rafa. He may win more games than Rafa’s first three opponents.

        • In my last post it should read – if Rafa is seeing the ball as well as he was in his last match, then I don’t think there is much that RBA can do.*

    • I don’t know what Rafa not being a spring chicken has to do with anything. It’s not like his first three matches would have taken a lot out of him.

      Fed is no spring chicken either and it hasn’t hurt him. Stan is no youngster either.

    • I am not a boy. Also the name Mary would indicate a woman.

      I don’t see any reason to say that we guys have been wrong before. You haven’t ever been wrong yourself?

  4. Rafa in 3; I think RBA will push him in at least one set. Raonic in 4, at least if he keeps serving as he has been.

    • MA,

      I love reading Miya’s thoughts! I heard on the tennis channel that Moya had shortened Rafa’s practice sessions. I think that was a good move. I love what he said about improving the second serve. I have been hoping they would do something about it for a while. I also love how he sees that Rafa is hitting his backhand better now. It’s become a potent weapon and gives Rsfa more options.

      It was also gracious of Moya to give Uncle Toni a good of the credit for some of the changes. It’s all paid off so well!

      Thanks again for another great read!
      ??

      • Nny!!…I knew you’re going to like this article!!hehe….We know Roger switched to a bigger racquet and have a string of success of his own…now,Rafa with a little changes on his racquet also make a great impact to his game in his season so far..add a few extra spice here and there..and Voila!…It’s heaven to be able to feel this incredible feelings once again Nny…I never thought i could feel this feeling again after those painful 2 years of Rafa’s slumped…Thank u God!Thank u!!

        • MA,

          Yes, the info sbout what Rafa did to his racket was very interesting! Moya was careful to give the credit to Uncle Toni.

          I thought what Moya said about Rafa’s forehand was also interesting. They are making adjustments that will help Rafa be more effective and also keep his opponents off guard. I think Moya said more speed with the forehand.

          All we know is that it’s paying off for Rafa!

          Love it!
          ??

  5. I picked Raonic in my bracket, but I think PCB may get the win. It is clay and PCB has been playing extremely well. Raonic’s big serve is not going to be as dominant on clay.

  6. MA to Nny!Over!…MA to Nny!Over,Over!!…Your darling start to rumble now!!..and what a rumble that is!!He’s already break in the 2nd game…Wooohooo!!!

    • MA,

      I recorded the match. I woke up briefly to see that Rafa won the first set easily. I will watch the match for myself. Some here said his level was not as high.

      That is why I am concerned about how easy it’s been so far. When Rafa gets pushed, he goes up another gear.

      I know we want him to have it easy and not get too tired like he was for the AO final, it he does need to be challenged.

      This is the time at RG when I start to get nervous. Crunch time! Quarterfinals!

      • NNY, you have to factor in the change of court, he’s playing at SL court so he needs a bit of adjusting. I think the SL court plays quicker, and Agut is good in long rallies.

        I do feel Rafa was affected by the TV warning so early in the match; from then he looked rushed during his service games and his first serves were affected. The saving grace was his second serve, I think he won 100% of his second serve points in set one!

        It wasn’t as clinical a win as his previous match(es) but he still won it in one hour fifty one mins I think, and losing only five games. It’s already quite good considering there were long points and Rafa won most of them.

        • Lucky,

          Thanks so much for that info. I have yet to watch my recording of the match. I wonder why Rafa was so affected by the time violation warning because he got one I believe in his previous match.

          Also, I should have kept in mind that the conditions are different on SL as you said. It does play quicker and Rafa’s match was supposed to be PC.

          I need to see the match and just watch how it played out. I thought that RBA might give Rafa a bit more of a match. But the score line still makes it look like an easy win.

          Raonic and PCB are locked in a real battle. Unbelievable! 6-6 in the fifth set.

          Maybe that wil tire them both out.

          Do you think either of them can give Rafa a match?

          • NNY, I think Rafa should not have problem dealing with either of them. It’s PCB that he’ll meet next; after PCB’s 4+ hours match against Raonic, I doubt PCB can match Rafa’s intensity in their next match.

      • Hey Nny!!…Morning!!…First of all,here’s the coffee to soothe your worry k?http://img1.picturescafe.com/pc/good-morning/good-morning_031.jpg

        Nny…Rafa’s play is not bad today..there’s a lot we can cheer about,amazing gets,amazing FH DTL,ferocious BH..it’s still there..but compared to Niko’s match..he made an UE’s a little bit high today[23]…and also he served poorly in the 1st set…but then again…RBA is not Niko…he’s also a clay specialist..so,to tame RBA in that score..it’s just WOW!!!…So,don’t worry k Nny?Rafa knew what to do…i think with those amazing scores..half of Rafa’s job was already done…the once feared King of Clay is back..it’s as simple as that…

        • MA,

          Thanks for the update. I will watch Rafa’s match, but now I am watching the tennis that is going on. So I will see it for myself.

          PCB just beat Raonic. So he will be Rafa’s next opponent.

          I just nervous that the road has been so easy. If Rafa faces Novak in the semis, he needs to be battle tested.

          I did watch my recording of Rafa’s previous match. Even though that guy didn’t have the game to trouble Rafa, it was still quite extraordinary to see Rafa playing such brilliant tennis. Great to see!

          Thanks for easing my worries. This is the time when the nerves start gettIng to me!
          ?

          • Hey Nny!…You’re very much welcome Nny!!It was nothing!!hehe…btw..may i add a few more words Nny?…Ermm..IMO..the road has been so easy for Rafa so far because he’s already reached the peak that once make him soo dominant on clay..the once phase that every opponents before they’re going out on court was already lost to Rafa in their head…the time when Rafa still not haunted by various of injuries and battling with confidence and self belief…

            That golden time when even the very dominant Novak can’t touch him on clay…we’re so used to see him struggled for almost 3 years that we forgot when he is in this mood…no one can touch him on clay Nny…Honestly,i don’t think PCB can trouble him..like the rest of the Spanish players..he’s also have too much respect for Rafa…Insyaallah,easy win once again..

            About Novak…i’m also worried about him Nny..but,considering that he can’t win against Rafa when he’s on his peak..i don’t think he will when he’s still struggling and battling with his own demon atm…

          • MA,

            Thanks for your words of wisdom. I just finished watching the first two sets of Rafa’s match. I must say that he really does. Have the fire back! The look in his eyes! I mentioned it in his previous match.

            It’s almost like Rafa has rid himself of his demons, fear, anxiety and doubts. Like he csn now play with so much confidence and belief. He is wiping out the memory of those humiliating defeats he endured when he was struggling.

            The body language is unreal with Rafa! He has that strut back! He’s the King of Clay and knows it!

            RBA is better on hard courts because he hits the ball flatter, as Lucky said. But he is still a quality player and to see Rafa just take him apart is really impressive.

            I just tend to start worrying at this point in slams. The closer it gets, the more I worry!

            You also make a good point about Novak dealing with his own demons. He is not all the way back yet and thank you for not buying into that, even though we have had it shoved in our faces repeatedly. He still has signs of mental fragility and lack of confidence. I think if Novak was back, he would have disposed of Diego much more quickly.

            However, I will always be nervous about a potential semifinal with Novak. Their matches can be quite physical.

            I don’t know that PCB can trouble Rafa either right now. He is playing extremely well and had a great win against Raonic. I wasn’t even worried about Raonic. This is clay abd his serve is not as dominant as on hard courts. I was confident that Rafa would beat Raonic. I don’t like to get carried away and maybe PCB will win more games. But if Rafa continues this way, he’s going to be tough. He’s a man on a mission.

  7. Rafa must be feeling so rushed after the TV warning so early in the match! Fortunately he holds for a 4-1 lead.

    Now I understand the usefulness of beefing up his second serve, just in case his first serves fail him when he rushes to serve within the time limit! Thanks Carlos Moya!

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