French Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

Thirteen-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal will take on the talented Italian teenager Jannik Sinner on Monday for a spot in the French Open quarterfinals. It is a rematch of last year’s quarters.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (18) Jannik Sinner

Clay-court king Rafael Nadal will face his sternest test of the fortnight on Monday in the form of Italian youngster Jannik Sinner. The two men have met just twice before, but their matches so far have been fairly high quality and also entertaining. They first met in the COVID edition of the French Open last October and again in Rome a few weeks ago. Nadal won both matches in straight sets, but Sinner made him work for it each time.

The Italian nearly found himself out of Paris in the first round. Pierre-Hugues Herbert had a match point against him, but Sinner fought his way back to win in five. Sinner’s form has been a bit off since he made the final at the Miami Masters, but he is capable of playing fantastic clay-court tennis–as he showed in his run to the semifinals in Barcelona.

Sinner

Nadal has been slightly off his best as well this week, unable so far to replicate the form he displayed in his run to the final in Rome–where he got yet another win over chief rival Novak Djokovic. Still, Nadal hasn’t dropped a set and he showed his signature grit and determination against Alexei Popyrin in the first round. The Australian served for the third set only to have Nadal come roaring back with a break and then a comfortable tiebreak to close it out in straights.

Sinner has the kind of game and has enough control and concentration to make Nadal uncomfortable. He should play well enough to at least give himself some chances to get in front of Nadal, as he did in Rome a few weeks ago. This one will be entertaining, but since it’s Nadal at Roland Garros there really can’t be another pick than the Spaniard.

Nadal is just better in the big moments of a match, particularly on clay when he can give himself the time and space to work himself into a game.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 4

Ricky pick: Nadal in 4

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31 Comments on French Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

  1. Swiatek gets the night match!
    Rafa is on after Nole. Not before 4 French time.
    It is supposed to be 25 Degrees tomorrow afternoon and sunny. That helps Rafa!😀

  2. Rafa was just being first week Rafa at RG. He doesn’t seem to be at his best, not consistently at least, but still wins in straight sets. His strokes often lack depth, the DTL forehand is rarely attempted and pretty far from the line, the unforced error count is rather high. On the other hand his defence is superb: good returns, lobs, slices, passing shots, incredible angles and overall he’s looking pretty spry.
    I think that Nadal can lose tomorrow his first set at RG in a while. I voted accordingly, however, if Sinner could not take him a set neither in much more favourable conditions last year nor in better conditions last months he might as well not do it tomorrow either. I do expect a typical small dip in Rafa’s game in the 4th round and Jannick may as well take advantage if it.

  3. Nadal wasn’t at his best in the early stages at Rome. He was a point away from losing to Shapovalov, yet hrle still beat Sinner in straights. I’m not convinced Jannick wins a set tomorrow.

    • Neither am I. I think Rafa knows what he has to do. He often is not at his best in the first week. But here is where he should be stepping it up.

      We will see.

  4. Nadal is often not at his best in the first week but he wasnt 35 then either. This smells of selective bias. As fit as Nadal is for his age, quite possibly the demands of the ATP at his age is all starting to catch up with him.

  5. Nadal’s draw is way too easy until the final again. He’s been a big earner for the FTA over the years, almost like part of the furniture.

      • Was just checking out the WTA; looks super competitive at the moment. So much talent going around. Serena is a brave lady for hanging around.

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