French Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Auger-Aliassime

Rafael Nadal eased through the first three rounds at the French Open, but things could get more difficult now that we are into the second week.

They are certainly getting more interesting, as Nadal’s fourth-round matchup is a blockbuster. One, Felix Auger-Aliassime is one of the rising stars in the game and a potential future Grand Slam champion. Two, Auger-Aliassime is coached by Toni Nadal.

Toni probably won’t be around to see it–at least not in person–but Sunday’s showdown could be a good one. Both players have been in impressive form this fortnight. Nadal did not drop a set during the first week, ousting Jordan Thompson, Corentin Moutet, and Botic van de Zandschulp. Auger-Aliassime has also won nine sets in a row, although he actually lost his first two of the tournament to Juan Pablo Varillas. After overcoming Varillas in five, the world No. 9 defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Filip Krajinovic in straights.

Auger-Aliassime’s reward is a second meeting with the 21-time major winner. They previously faced each other three years ago in Madrid, long before Toni started working with the Canadian. Nadal had no trouble giving his opponent a clay-court lesson, cruising 6-3, 6-3.

Can the 21-year-old make this one more competitive now that he has a lot more experience under his belt? It’s possible. Auger-Aliassime has become extremely consistent at slams, as his three most recent results are quarterfinals (2021 Wimbledon), semifinals (2021 U.S. Open), and quarterfinals (2021 Australian Open).

Of course, the bad news for the underdog is that Nadal is looking like his normal French Open self. The 13-time champ’s preparation was derailed by rib and foot problems, but those concerns have been put to rest–at least for now–by his first three matches. Nadal had no trouble improving to 108-3 lifetime on the terre battue of Paris.

Auger-Aliassime can throw a lot more at Nadal than Thompson, Moutet, and van de Zandschulp, so this could be the Spaniard’s first test of the fortnight. But it’s one he should pass without too much of a scare.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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63 Comments on French Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Auger-Aliassime

    • Yes!!! I just had to watch Rafa”s body language, he knew he messed up in the 4th but he said to himself that’s fine, I’ll just have to do better in the fifth and fight!! And I just had to believe, Rafa wants this!! He does not look like somebody who is not looking forward to playing Novak!! I very much looking forward to this match!! My money”s on Rafa!! Vamos!!

  1. Now for those doubters? Where r u?? Where r u?!! U guys need not give up on Rafa!!! Let him do his thang!!! Vamos!!

    This is a perfect match for Rafa!! And Rafa is looking forward to it……….he fought hard he gave himself a chance!!

    • Will it be enough to beat djokovic .against djokovic there are mental demons no ..plus the 4.5 hrs on court today at 36 years is too much right to recover from n the Novak match will be super physical ..glad the foot held well today

  2. Well Rafa wins in the end, congrats! Should’ve won this sooner; he always like to fight back when his back is against the wall. He serves better when he really needs to hold serve to win, but serves poorly throughout the match! When he can serve well like in the last few games, why he just couldn’t do it earlier? I just don’t understand Rafa’s mindset!

    • Agreed. His serve games were very good in fifth set. I think none of the games went to deuce. Should have closed in four sets. Anyway this could be a test that he might have needed. Day off should be good as he had easy matches earlier. Lets see

    • Lucky,

      I just want you to know that my comments were not directed at you. There is one person who has been relentkessly negative. I get where you are coming from. I feel the same frustration. Rafa should have won it in four sets. It’s because we love him so much and want to see him win efficiently and not have to push himself.

      I don’t understand his mindset either.

    • Well no much play all clay season and body rested a lot from March 24 till may 15…so maybe the 4.5 hr match will not pain harder compared to had he played a full clay season

  3. That match was probably a good thing for Rafa. He was dangerously short of clay matches coming into Paris. He needed to find a new gear, which he has done.

    • That’s a great positive comment Cheryl!
      I think people should remember how poor he was against Sinner in 2020
      Then he massively upped his level against N ovax

      • That was qf Amy.. he got lot of rallies against deigo in sf ..plus Novak played a 5 setter against tsitsi in 2020 sf

    • I’d agree but this coming one match before playing Djokovic, I am not entirely sure.

      One thing’s for sure, Rafa is nowhere near his top level. Saw moments of brilliance in set 5 but I don’t know where he will be against Djoko. I am pretty sure Djoko will come out playing great!

      • I never saw as usual:-) was the fh not firing too ? The fh was good first 3 rounds…what part of his game is poor ?

        • Sanju he was just very erratic.
          He was in real control and then played a sloppy game to lose serve from 40 love to and he seemed to completely lose confidence and focus…
          But the fact he came back is great!

      • Vr, yes I know it is extremely difficult.
        I just wanted to remind everyone of how poorly he was playing in 2020 until he raised his level.
        Sinner had set points and choked and let Rafa off the hook but Raga really was playing poorly for most f the match…

  4. Rafa needs some help from djoko if he has to win. Needs djoko to come out flat. And as far as demons ago even novak must be having his own demons against rafa at rg.
    Novak the favorite though based on last years results. Also Novak had handled faa handily when they met.

    If rafa pulls it off it will probably be among his top 3 victories at rg.

  5. Rafa has to up his level from today’s come the QF, if not he will be toast. This is not being negative but being realistic.

    Djoko isnt playing unbeatable tennis but his level is somehow rather steady, not so much ups and downs imo. Rafa playing like R3 level > Djoko; Rafa playing at R4 level < Djoko.

    Djoko may not have FAA's big serve but his ROS and rallies are so much better, so Rafa really needs to be more aggressive and steps inside the court more often, and tries to shorten points as much as possible because physically he's at a disadvantage.

    • How Rafa is going to return Djoker and more importantly how he counters Djoker’s drop shots could very well decide the sourse of the match. First time since 2015 RG QF, Rafa isnt a favorite going into a clash on court PC, but that may not be that bad a thing for him !

      • Djoker tried the drop shots in the 2020 RG Final and he lost in straight sets including a bagel. Last year we all know that Rafa’s foot was an issue so we can’t use that to judge anything.

    • Luckystar, you have to take into account who Novak has played and who Rafa has played.

      Molcan stretched Djokovic but Nishioka, Bedene and Schwartzman hardly showed up. I thought Schwartzman would at least make Djokovic work hard but he didn’t.

      Djokovic hasn’t faced anyone who played at the level Felix played today. Moutet and Botic didn’t hand it to Rafa on a plate either.

      • Exactly Nadline!! Ppl r also forgetting that Rafa”s draw is atrocious while everyone else has less dangerous players and so it makes them seem so sharp!! I’m glad Rafa got tested today so he knows where his level is at and what he needs to do to beat his next opponent. No one needs to tell Rafa what to do there!!! Vamos Rafa!!

        Meanwhile, for someone with Karen”s size where is his first serve?!! He is letting Carlos boss him around, cmon Karen at least take this to a fifth!!

    • Lucky,

      I don’t think you are being negative at all. Rafa can’t come out against Novak playing the way he did especially in sets 1 and 4. I think you make a good point Novak being steady without so many ups and downs.

      Novak’s ROS is formidable. Rafa has to come out aggressive.

  6. So how he fares against Rafa depends on which Rafa turns up.

    The two sets he lost, his combined stats were: 13 winners, 28 U.errors,

    The three sets he won, his combined stats: 34 winners, 13 U.errors!

    The level fluctuated quite a bit and he was miserable at converting break points. He needs to be on top from the start but we all know he is very likely to start nervous. I don’t think he is going to have lots of time and he needs all the varieties from the start.

    We are all not happy with his serve and it is nightmare scenario against Novak if you are not serving well.

    I think Djokovic is 75-25 favourite here for various reasons. Rafa can do it as long he comes out playing like he did in set 5 and Novak also isn’t on top of his game.

    Not sure if they give them a night match or a day match ?!

    • Night for sure.

      I don’t think rafa will come out nervous as he is not the fav..everyone had Novak as the fav..

      I hope rafa gets that mentality when he walked on court for rg 2020 final when he was told 5 mns before the match that roof will be closed .he told Moya ‘ I don’t care ,I am not losing this’ . He needs that same mindset , only then he will win…

      Actually rafa is 21 ,Novak wants to touch 21..so I think Novak will be more nervous ..

      • He came out extremely nervous in 2015 when nobody expected him to win so you never know who it will be.

        There’s no question Rafa is the best on this surface and once he hits top gear, while Djoko can push him a lot, he always comes out on top.

        There’s too much uncertainty this time around. Rafa himself knows he is under-prepared but he is going to give it his all. Novak has had ideal preparation and is physically going to be at an advantage too.

        Let’s not downplay Novak’s win last year too much. It was an incredibly high quality match and it was only late in the 3rd set Rafa started having issues and yes he was pretty flat in set 4.

        Can Rafa do it? OF COURSE. I just haven’t seen enough to feel confident. I saw glimpses in this match and I hope can put together a masterclass and Djoko ends up being the one feeling more nervous!

        Vamos, Rafa. Give it your all and I hope you can pull this off!

      • His level so far has been far from his best, he just played 4.5 hrs of tennis and Djo has had ideal preparation. Is it not being realistic? Like I said, if he brings out his best tennis, he will beat Djoko but will he? We will only find out on Tues. I hope he can win!

        • If they’d swapped 4th round opponents and Rafa had played Bedene and Djokovic had played Felix, Rafa would have won in straight sets and Djokovic would not have beaten Felix in straight sets.

          That’s my perspective.

        • VR,

          I am very aware that Rafa’s level is not at his best. I am also acutely aware of his mediocre serving. Nadline pointed out that Novak has not been challenged so far. That could be a good thing or a bad thing, Novak wins Rome, his first title this year and suddenly it’s all roses and sunshine with him? He always talks himself up. But playing a Rafa not at his best is still a big step up from his previous competition.

          Rafa has won RG not playing his best. I am the last person to sugarcoat this. I know that things seem stacked against Rafa, but you just never know.

          I finally watched the fifth set. There was no way I could watch it live. That was vintage Rafa. But he can’t sustain that level of play. He was on fire. That is what it will take to beat Novak. I don’t think we are in disagreement here. Rafa should have closed out this match in four sets. Even his serve returned in that fifth set.

          On paper Novak looks to be the favorite. I don’t know if Rafa can come back strong after this tough match today. So I don’t have a problem with giving the odds to Novak. I am just not sure about 75-25.

          Rafa did not have enough preparation. He didn’t win any clay tournaments and did not even play the first two. He also doesn’t have the confidence that he would have if he had won a tournament.

          I just wonder how Nivsk goes from playing like crap to suddenly being invincible. Rafa may not be ready to beat Novak, but I know he will give it his all.

          • fair points, maybe more like a 65-35 or 60-40 but I am not sure. The thing with Novak is that he’s usually found it easier to bring his A game against Rafa than visa versa and like Rafa said, he’s won Rome and comes in with nice momentum.

            If you tell me the Rafa from set 5 appears from the start, he’ll take the match. In what mental and physical state he’ll be, can anyone use really tell? Nopes. This is the most uncertain I am about him at RG (save 2015 when we knew he was struggling big time).

            I was keen for Rafa to meet Novak with his improved 2nd serve but his whole game ain’t quite firing yet. I can only hope he gets it together and delivers a defeat to Novak.

            I hope we get a day time match !

          • VR,

            As I said I think we are overall on the same page regarding Rafa’s chances against Novak. It be fair, i guess it’s silly to quibble over percentages. You can stick with 75-25 and maybe we will be surprised.

            I do think Novak can bring his “A” game against Rafa more than Rafa can bring his. That rib injury sure messed with the clay season.

            Actually I am also very uncertain about him at RG. Too many variables. Coming off the rib injury and missing two clay tournaments. The foot flaring up badly at Rome.

            Can you tell if he is hitting his second serve as fast as he did before the injury? Because I can’t convert it into mph. His serve doesn’t seem to be as good as it was earlier in the year. I agree that his whole game is not firing just yet. And I think he knows it.

            Ie Joy reading your thoughts and your honest take on Rafa’s chances. It’s a Shane that he had to get such a nightmarish draw.

  7. I think once Rafa retires, people will realize and maybe miss the intensity of these five set matches. He was far from his best but I thought was clinical in fifth set. Literally someone who has dominated a tournament for 15 odd years, its weird to think how good he was where he was untouchable in his 15 prime years.

    I think for all Rafa fans and maybe for Djoker fans, it should less be about who wins the next match, rather should be more of a celebration of a great rivalry and probably two of the greatest careers in the history of sport

    • I remember during Rafa’s younger days, I just watched his clay court matches without even need to worry one bit, and he was serving out bagels and bread sticks so frequently. Those were such joyful moments because I knew he would win the match and I could enjoy my coffee and snacks while watching him play. There weren’t five setters played by him at RG until 2011 in R1 against Isner.

      It was when he reached mid twenties that he started to get challenged more often, mainly by the top form Djoko.

      It’s still amazing watching him play here at RG despite his age at 36, he is still able to move so quickly and matches his younger opponents. He’s using his tennis acumen, court craft and experience to help him fight against these younger opponents.

      He’s the king of clay, no doubt about that. I haven’t seen anyone among the youngsters having promises to be the future king on clay or replacing him. As good as Alcaraz is, he still needs to fight hard to win his matches, not handing out bagels or bread sticks the way young Rafa did.

      Rafa has as rival in DJoko, I hope some youngsters would challenge Alcaraz in future and make a rivalry out of it.

      • I think only year Djoker could really challenge Rafa was 2013. I actually thought even in that SF, Rafa should have closed earlier but that was probably the best I have seen Djoker play against Rafa at RG.

        Thats why Tuesday match is more like raising a toast for great rivalry where both of them are obviously still past their prime but are still meeting in latter stages of the tournament keepiong their side of promise.

        Tuesday is 10th meeting at RG for these two great rivals ! Are you kidding me, seriously, its a ridiculous stat and just goes to show how much these guys are better than the rest.

    • VR,

      Sorry for the autocorrect mashup of my words in my last post. I meant to say that I enjoy reading your thoughts.

      Oh and it’s a shame that he got such a bad draw!

  8. Hopefully Nadal can lobby for a day match to even up roofgate. Also they have his statue there. Should at least do this much. Only issue is it means a shorter TaT

  9. Yeah, it is very much dependent on which Rafa comes out to play. For this R4 match, if the Rafa of R3 came out to play, I was confident that he would beat FAA comfortably, and that’s why it’s so shocking to see the way he played in set 1, there were one or two service games where he couldn’t make a single first serve!

    I really don’t know whether it’s because of the Toni Nadal factor, plus, Rafa knows that FAA has a powerful serve.

    Djoko is a familiar opponent; I think Rafa knows the game plan, it’s just the execution part, and his own physical condition. I hope the right Rafa comes out to play, the one who can at least serve well like in the fifth set today.

  10. Rafa had a late night yesterday; he was 20 minutes late for his practice session today so I’m guessing he overslept. I think that’s why he was so slow in the first set; he wasn’t alert enough. Not to take anything from Felix who was brilliant.

  11. I am pretty Fed up with Toni.
    This may not be fair or rational but it’s how I feel.
    I felt before the match that the Toni factor would help Felix and hinder Rafa.
    I felt really irritated seen g Toni in the crowd holding court …

    • To be fair to Toni, he is not Felix’s principle coach who is Frederic Fontang. Rafa was a bit slow in the first set probably because he had a late night yesterday at the Champions League match. Rafa had a very short practice yesterday and was 20 minutes late for his practice today so he wasn’t as sharp as he could be.

      Felix is a great player. He can be dangerous but he can also lose to anyone. Anyone who is up against Rafa has a different mindset, including Djokovic. If Djokovic plays against Rafa the way he has played so far he would definitely lose. IMO

    • @ Amy, I concur!!

      But all in all Felix played very well so he has a lot to be proud of, he took Rafa to the brink which is only just short of beating him at RG!!

    • Jim Courier (my commie) said that Toni had left his seat at the beginning of the 5th set and the cameramen could not find him. I guess the match was too much for him? Old age setting in? He’s certainly been through worse!

      Happy Rafa won. But the road ahead is maybe the toughest he’s ever faced at RG? Djokovic, followed by either Alcaraz or Zverev, followed by Tsitsi or, just possibly, Meddy? I look at that line up and I think, oh, just lose and get a head start on the grass! Assuming he plays the grass. Guess that depends on whether he feels he’ll be competitive there. But for a pro, it’s ONE MATCH AT A TIME. I should at least be a professional fan by now, but not so much…

      • Ramara, no!! If Rafa decided to play RG then he should give it his all!!! What’s the point of bailing out? He has never been that type of player!! Rafa likes to take his chances and he believes in himself even when he is not at his best. He has the most GSs in the history of the sport y should he give up on himself, he knows how to win!! He may have some scar tissue when it comes to Novak but he knows what he has to do to beat him here!! Novak was perhaps so engrossed in this match and was hoping Rafa would lose bcoz I’m sure he would much rather play FAA!! Yet u saw how hard Rafa wanted to win knowing full well that Novak is awaiting him! So y r u guys worried for?! He’s obviously not afraid to face Novak so y should we be?!! Vamos champ!!

  12. So based on the comments here it’s best Rafa just not show up for the match with Novak!! Maybe Rafa should have not even taken part in RG!!! I mean seriously u guys? After u saw how hard Rafa fought today u r still not willing to give him a chance!! Rafa has won this tourney 13x and Some ppl here r providing tips on what Rafa needs to do to beat Novak!! Rafa KNOWS how to beat Novak at RG, he’s done it plenty times before!!! Give Rafa a break!! He can do this!! Who has Novak played to be honest? Has he even been tested! In 2020 when Rafa beat Novak in str8t sets and even bageled him ppl thought all along that Novak was going to take him out!! And yet still u guys still have no faith in Rafa at RG? So when will u have any faith?!!!!

    Meanwhile, Carlos is making a meal out of Karen!! If Rafa ends up winning RG it will surely be one of the greatest wins of his career bcoz they sure did all they could to stop him from winning here!!

    • Including scheduling his quarterfinal on Chatrier at night! Yuck!

      Heh, never occurred to me that Alcaraz might lose to KK. It did occur to me that Djoker just might lose to Shortman, but he never has, and I guess he never will.

      I am incredibly proud of Rafa. He didn’t come into this RG with his full toolkit but he IS COMPETING with what he’s got. Pleased with the backhand dtl today. It’s been MIA lately.

    • Hi Monalisa, yes if he wins it will be greatest win of his career. Every body including me concerned about his level and health. Djoker is another beast and super hungry after RAFA won 21. he is obsessed with having most GS and longest WN 1. these days he has become mentally tough in bad situations. RAFA will be under pressure all through. Just hoping Rafa can come through these but it is extremely tough considering rafa’s condition now. i had some work so could not join here before. Good luck for SF> i doubt i will be able to watch live. too much stress 🙂

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