French Open R3 previews and predictions: Tsonga vs. Gulbis, Berdych vs. Cuevas

Ernests Gulbis will be hoping to keep his Roland Garros run going on Saturday at the expense of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is coming off a five-setter. Tomas Berdych and Pablo Cuevas are also aiming for a spot in the fourth round.

Ernests Gulbis vs. (8) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Tsonga and Gulbis will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers when they collide in round three of the French Open on Saturday. Tsonga is leading the head-to-head series 3-2, but Gulbis has gotten the job done in each of their two most recent encounters. Their only previous Grand Slam showdown came three years ago at Wimbledon, where Gulbis led 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 before getting a retirement. The Latvian prevailed again on the indoor hard courts of Marseille via a 7-6(5), 6-4 decision. This marks the first-ever clay-court contest between Gulbis and Tsonga.

For the world No. 80, this has already been a surprisingly productive tournament. He had been just 5-10 for the season and had not yet won back-to-back matches at any tournament prior to his arrival in Paris. From out of nowhere, however, Gulbis has coasted past both Andreas Seppi and Joao Sousa in straight sets. Tsonga had no such routine day at the office in the second round, but he managed to overcome Marcos Baghdatis 6-7(6), 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2. That was preceded by a more comfortable 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 opening defeat of Jan-Lennard Struff. Both of these guys have a history of success at Roland Garros. The best tournament of Gulbis’ career came in 2014, when he upset Roger Federer on his way to the semifinals; Tsonga is a two-time semifinalist, including last year. Three straight near-flawless matches may be too much to ask of the underdog, and Tsonga should once again feed off the crowd en route to another hard-fought victory.

Pick: Tsonga in 5

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(25) Pablo Cuevas vs. (7) Tomas Berdych

The 2016 campaign has been a roller-coaster ride for Berdych, and only the start of it trended up. He burst out of the gates with a semifinal showing in Doha, a quarterfinal performance at the Australian Open, and another semifinal appearance in Marseille. But it has been downhill for the eighth-ranked Czech ever since he got blown out in consecutive weeks by Nick Kyrgios (Marseille and Dubai). Berdych recently split from coach Dani Vallverdu after he got infamously double-bageled by David Goffin in Rome. The No. 7 seed, however, may be getting things together following routine victories this week over Vasek Pospisil and Malek Jaziri.
Berdych
It is safe to say the competition level ratchets up exponentially in the form of Cuevas, who is 1-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series. Their only previous meeting came last fall on the hard courts of Beijing, where Cuevas cruised 6-4, 6-4. That was a considerable surprise on a hard court, but no one could be shocked to see the Uruguayan beat Berdych on clay. All five of his career titles have come on the slow stuff, including two this year in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. The world No. 30 cooled off just a bit on the current European clay swing but still owns a solid 20-9 record for the season. He has won six consecutive sets this week at the expense of Tobias Kamke and Quentin Halys since dropping his opener against Kamke. Now that Berdych has to face a traditional clay-courter, his woes are likely to be extended.

Pick: Cuevas in 4

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24 Comments on French Open R3 previews and predictions: Tsonga vs. Gulbis, Berdych vs. Cuevas

  1. Cuevas in four and Tsonga in four but I can see gulbis taking two sets as well. An upset is possible but I have a feeling the crowd wil get Jo through similar to his last match.

  2. Hi everyone.

    With all due respect, do you REALLY believe that ATP250/Challenger player who has never got past R3 of ANY GS tournament will beat Top 10 player/former SF here???

    Serious question: do you?

    :-/

  3. Gulbis is killing it right now. Tsonga looks mediocre. Gulbis will beat him and people are gona act shocked like omg really.

    • This was what I was thinking at first but I feel like Tsonga can step it up with the home crowd behind him like last year when he made the semis and I think Gulbis might get a bit rattled by the crowd being heavily favored towards Tsonga considering Ernie is known for getting a bit rattled lol (aka his epic racket smashes).

      • Then again what Ernie did against Roger in 2014 here makes me think he won’t get affected by the crowd being against him too badly. All I know is that could be a very very good match. The match I’m most excited for tomorrow isn’t that one though. I would say I’m most looking forward to RBA vs Coric which should be a battle and Thiem and Zverev which should be very intriguing.

      • When has Gulbis ever been rattled by a hostile crowd? He deliberately courts controversy and thrives on it.

        But I agree, this kind of match is what brings out the best in Tsonga and will drive the crowd to fever pitch.

        Thiem v Zev Minor has all the ingredients for an epic.

        I might even watch in spite of being in mourning for the absence of Rafa.

  4. It would be EPIC if Gulbis makes the QF. Shoot. Maybe even make the SF? ? Those 720 SF ranking points would look good on him and he’d be seeded for Wimbledon in the mid 20’s!!! It would be like a rebirth of his career…

    • I think eating two bagels at one sitting was a wake-up call for Berdy. Not saying he will necessarily win but It won’t be the demolition job Pieman anticipates.

  5. Ed251137. My views on demolition is for Gulbis to beat down Tsonga. U are talking about Cuevas. I think Cuevas will win. Just.

  6. Too bad Jo had to retire up 5-2 in the first. Big for Gulbis to be back in round of 16 though. Technically still hasn’t dropped a set lol.

  7. Man Tsonga was crying that’s rough. Really sad for him. He will probably drop out of top 10 now after failing defend most of the points he gained from his semifinal run last year.

    • I was so upset to see Tsonga go down with an injury. He was ahead in the match. It means so much to him to play at RG in front of his countrymen.

      That was hard to watch. I wanted to see Tsonga get to the semis.

  8. I picked Cuevas to win but only because Berdych hasn’t been in good form lately.The same could be said for Ferrer and Isner but they all managed to get through…

      • Yeah that’s true he lost to Mahut in Rome for example. So not a great Euro swing. He lost a lot of close ones to guys like Raonic and Kyrgios.

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