French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Basilashvili, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

Rafael Nadal is through to the French Open third round following two routine victories, and he will try to engineer more of the same against Nikoloz Basilashvili on Friday. Grigor Dimitrov and Pablo Carreno Busta are also in action.

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Nadal’s 2016 French Open campaign ended abruptly prior to the third round, but that exit was beyond his control. Rather than losing, the nine-time champion was felled by a wrist injury that also kept him out of Wimbledon. Now, Nadal has once again produced straight-set beatdowns in each of his first two matches and will look to progress farther–much farther–in the draw than he did last year. The fourth-ranked Spaniard improved to 74-2 lifetime at Roland Garros and 19-1 on clay this season with a 6-1, 6-4, 6-1 victory over Benoit Paire and 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 rout of Robin Haase.

Up next for Nadal on Friday is a first-ever showdown against Basilashvili. The Georgian has already equaled his previous Grand Slam match win total in his entire career (two, both at Wimbledon in 2013) by beating Gilles Simon in four sets and Viktor Troicki in three straight tiebreakers. In his only other comparable major matchup, and only other one against anyone in the top 15, Basilashvili got blown out by Roger Federer 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 at the 2016 Australian Open. An improved world No. 63 should be slightly more competitive in this one, but he is also unlikely to close to stealing a set.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(20) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (11) Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov and Carreno Busta will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers at the ATP level on Friday. Carreno Busta leads the head-to-head series 2-1, avenging a 2014 Madrid loss by prevailing once in both 2015 (Paris Masters) and 2016 (Madrid). Although they have split their two previous clay-court encounters, the surface is obviously more advantageous to Carreno Busta. Five of his six career ATP finals and two of his three titles have come on the red stuff, a surface on which he has earned 19 of his 25 match victories in 2017. Carreno Busta booked his spot in the last 32 this fortnight with a straight-set blowout of Florian Mayer and a four-set win at the expense of Taro Daniel.

Although Dimitrov is not exactly a pushover on clay, he has to be satisfied already with a third-round performance at Roland Garros. After all, the 13th-ranked Bulgarian had previously been 3-6 lifetime at this tournament with three consecutive first-round exits. He brought a four-match French Open losing streak into this year’s event, a stretch that saw him go 2-12 in total sets. So far this week, however, Dimitrov has not dropped a single set or even been pushed to a tiebreaker while taking out Stephane Robert and Tommy Robredo. This time, though, he not facing opponent well past his prime. On the contrary, Carreno Busta playing the best tennis of his life and feels right at home on this particular surface.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 4

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230 Comments on French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Basilashvili, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

  1. ” I was way better at the beginning…then the warm up ended”, post interview by Haase after losing to Nadal. Best quote!

  2. There are seven Spaniards into R3 – Rafa, PCB, ARV, RBA, Verdasco, Feli, GGL, i.e. almost 25% of 32 R3 players, very impressive so far.

    • Since Rafa’s threat last year to take legal action against anyone publishing unsubstantiated accusations about him let’s hope the French press will desist from stoking up rumours implying Spanish players use PEDs. I trust, too, Tenngrand will not allow any such speculation.

      • ed251137(AT 11:20 AM),

        Karma hit Yannik Noah! LOL

        Tennis World: ¤¤ Yannick Noah’s son banned due to doping in the NBA competition!
        Yannick Noah’s sayings went worldwide in 2011 when he said that all the Spanish players, including Rafael Nadal, were involved in doping. Now six years after, Noah’s son Joakim, New York Knicks basketball star who signed a four-year contract with the team last year for $72 million, has been banned for 20 NBA games (ten this year, the other ten in the next Championship) as he was tested positive for a substance found in some over-the-counter supplements that is prohibited under the outgoing Collective Bargaining Agreement. The National Basketball Players Association’s investigation concluded that Noah hadn’t “knowingly or willingly” violated the policy and cooperated fully with the league’s probe. ¤¤
        http://www.tennisworldusa.org/news/news/Tennis_Stories/41822/yannick-noah-s-son-banned-due-to-doping-in-the-nba-competition/

        • I wonder whether any player in history has ever admitted “knowingly or willingly” violating the policy! Same old same old…taking it in a supplement “unknowingly” or taking something “unknowing” it moved to the banned list or best of all, the mother of all fairy tales of the unknowing needle phobic…

  3. Dimitrov is so flawed mentally. How in the heck did he make the semis in Melbourne? He will probably lose this in straights now. Outside of Melbourne and his two 250 titles he has put together some disastrous losses and results. Freaking outrageously bad from Grigor to lose that lead somehow

  4. I can’t stand Fred Stolly, the commentator here. He has nothing better to say but to talk about Rafa’s time between points in every of Rafa’s matches here! He’s not sick of it but people like me get sick of it!

    What’s the big deal when none of his opponents or any spectators, or us the viewers don’t/didn’t feel that his matches were slow moving? In fact I’ll bet his opponents were hoping that Rafa doesn’t finish them off so quickly, for their own pride sake!

    • Yeah, Lucky (maybe a ceasefire between you and me?), did you see my post? Is that the guy I was referring to? Was it just in the Haase match or was he doing it yet again today.

      An obvious fedfawn and I would say a coward for being so disrespectful to Rafa behind his back and not seeing the forest for the trees for how much Rafa has added to the sport, which would have probably less than half the revenue it has today because of him.

      Such a complete ass.

  5. Okay,okay…normal routine..take an energy liquid,placing the bottles rightly,warm up…give the towels to the ballboys…ask for 2 balls on 1 side and 1 ball on the other…left arm rocking the ball with racquet while right arm do his routine..caressing his nose and imaginary hair at the temple..touch both shoulders and lastly pick his short….and then…LET’S SERVE AND RUMBLE WITH RAFA NOW!!!!WOOOHOOOO!!!VAMOS!!

    • Naturally Rafans find it all endearing apart from the anxiety he will get a Time Violation penalty. We all know who campaigned for enforcing the rule more stringently. But what a nonsense the ITF allow only 20secs at 5 set slams and the ATP give 25 secs for all the rest. Fortunately most umpires use their discretion.

      • Jeez ed. Was watching Rafa playing Haase. Our sports network picks up different coverage sometimes from US and sometimes Europe.

        This match was covered by some British commentator (don’t know who he was, and he was alone commentating on the match) and he went on ad nauseam criticizing Rafa for all the time he took between points and mocked each of Rafa’s service rituals saying he was ruining the game of tennis. So he would then say that tennis would be better without him??? What a joke.

        I don’t think commentators should say anything on air that they would not be willing to say face-to-face to the player they are talking about.

        Just about the worst commentator I’ve listened to and that says a lot.

        BTW, I don’t find it endearing at all. I know he says it calms him but he’d be a better player in the long run without the rituals. He had very few when he started playing but continued to add new ones as years passed. It’s a waste of mental energy and focus. Textbook case of high functioning OCD. And part of his slump exacerbated by the intentional Rafa Time Violation Rule (a collusion between Federer and stake owners out to protect his legacy).

        Rafa has worked hard to reduce time on his rituals, and it is paying dividends.

  6. 23 minutes, first bagel served at FO 2016 by the King of Clay.

    He is in demolition mode. Forehand getting better and better and better.

    Such a joy to watch.

    #Artist

    • it is getting ridiculous now. 2008-like

      Hope he can maintain this!!

      If anyone sees the RPMs stat for rafa’s forehand, PLEASE share. He is getting ridiculous spin.

  7. MA to Nny over!MA to Nny over!…Wake up!wake up!…Your darling is on fire again today!!…You’re gonna missed the amazing perfomance today if you’re not wake up soon!!

  8. Niko trying to rally with rafa…it’s not going to work!He should apply Fognini’s method,by going for broke…but,i guess he don’t have a confidence to do that…which is very okay to me!!!!The less rafa spent on court the better!!

  9. Rafa’s level has dropped a bit… actually his opponent is hitting with a bit more penetration this set and Rafa’s been leaking more errors.

  10. Rafa continues to win more points behind his SECOND serve as compared to his first serve!

    Major improvements in this department. he is going to be at the top of the ladder in second serve pts won this year.

  11. There u go!!..Alhamdulillah…amazing scores,amazing match time!…wrapped up his match in 1H30’….Onto 4th round we goes!!Woohooo!!!

    • The Time violation rule is Fed’s biggest weapon against Rafa. Rafa knows the umpires will be under pressure to impose it aggressively if the two are playing against each other, The routine is automatic. Having to consciously think of avoiding the routine disrupts Rafa’s focus and prevents him from getting into the zone. Maybe that was one of the reasons for his loss to Fed at AO.

      • Definitely a factor (plus just coming back from injury – takes Rafa longer to get his game fully back than balsam ballerina Federer).

      • I agree. The problem is of course that on paper the umpire and Fed are right. It’s the rule – whether we like it or not. And since Fed never goes over the time limit himself the umpire has very little leeway in a Fedal match.
        Personally I think there definitely should be a time limit, but the 20 second rule for slams is far too short for today’s modern tennis IMO.
        It’s a pity that Rafa developed all these routines, because it definitely throws him off, when he’s under pressure because of the time limit. Fed diagnosed that correctly.

  12. Wow. Guess Rafa wanted to finish before the thunderstorms started. He’s afraid of them. But I bet it’s nothing like the fear Rafa inspired in Niko Bash today.

  13. Well the real challenge for Rafa begins now. I think it is RBA, then probably PCB and Nole. If he bagels Nole, like he bageled Fed in 2008, this year would be 2008-like.

    • How can that be the only basis of comparison?! Fed and Nole match up very different against Rafa and both have different strengths.

      Anyway, I am not going to think about Rafa sweeping everyone aside like in RG 2008 . One match at a time. It will be a rout against RBA as well I believe.

  14. Don’t know what’s Djoko doing. He was leading the set but now dropped serve again to let Schwartzman take the lead.

    I know Diego is not an easy opponent, giving Rafa plenty of problems at MC and to Cilic at Istanbul. However, Djoko would still come through I think in the end; may lose a set or even two though.

    • They usually work, but he has played so poorly in the 2nd half of that set. Diego was good, but hardly on fire.

  15. mira just leaving you a message as i dropped in for a moment.
    hope you are really well honey.
    take good care!! xx
    ps saw rafa play today and against haase. i thought he was amazing. haven’t seen him hit his forehand like that since forever.

    • Sorry!..late to reply amy!!…Btw i’m okay amy!..Just missed u so d@#$ much!!!hahaha!…About rafa…oh well!…Thank God so much for all that we’ve already seen this CC season….Hopefully this wonderful moment will last forever!!Hehehe…Really miss u amy!!

      • glad you’re ok mira. although rafa has been incredible i won’t get ahead of myself as i am very superstitious. he’s a joy to watch right now.
        missed you too mira.

        • Yeah!!Me too amy!!…I actually really afraid with this all talk about he may win his la Decima…My personal experience,if we’re get too excited about something..it usually end up with the not so happy news at the end….I really hope Rafa can win tho…and nothing happen to him for days to come…

          • am exactly the same mira. i never ever count my chickens before they are hatched!! there’s a nice animal metaphor for you!!!
            never really understand why people say they are sure someone is going to win as it’s such a horrible letdown if they end up losing.

          • Amy!!Hahaha..cow,chicken!…i’m fine with it amy!!..But..oh my God!If it’s really happen i will go your house and will hug and kiss u senseless!!hahaha…virtualy that is!!hahaha..

      • Miss and think of you Amy. Hope you are well.

        Just woke up so I missed all the action. Poor Basilashvili only got one game 😉 I though he’d get 3 games.

        • rc,

          You missed one heck of a match with Kiki and Rogers! You were right in your assessment of Rogers. It was a three set battle with Kiki having to come from behind in the third set to get the win. The atmosphere was insane with the crowd urging her on and chanting her name.

          What a match! Now Kiki gets Mugu next!

          • Nny,

            Thanks. Can’t wait to see the replay of that battle and find out what happened to my favorite Belgian.

        • miss you too rc. i’m pretty good thanks. just wrote a satire attacking trump this afternoon. god i hate him.
          i’ll be back to talk wta with you soon. was so great to see petra back early and i think she could do well at wimby. really hope so.

          • Oh really? I’d love to read it, amy!
            I’ll be joining a protest march this weekend. There’s so many issues to protest but dropping from the Paris Accord is intolerable. Every day he remains president – democracy is under threat.

            Novak appears to be in for a long one with Diego.

          • bit difficult to show you rc as it’s for publication so i can’t write it out here unfortunately.
            there are a lot of protests against trump here as well. i don’t even know what to say about paris. there was a great cover in a german magazine with a picture of the earth saying f*** you to trump. i agree totally that democracy is under threat and the whole gop pretty much is utterly venial and craven.
            miss talking to you rc.

          • oh so she’s bashing rc as well now. well rc is class like margot and that’s what drives her mad with envy so not surprising.

          • Thanks, amy. But I think it was the mutual dislike between Mary and myself was inevitable. And she’s found my weakness ….LOL I’m not smart!

          • Amy,rc…if we’re not careful..our comments will get deleted by Ricky after this[like a while ago]…So,before that happen..i just wanna say..amy..please come again okay?Don’t mind Mary…there’s plenty of pure soul here who loves to chat and traded comments with u..okay?

          • mira, we are not misbehaving mary is. she gets away with murder on this site and there is no reason we should put up with it. i will come here to see you again mira…i promise!!! i know you have a pure soul.

          • I know amy…i just don’t like to see u been treated like this by Mary…i have no idea that someone could hate another human being like Mary…i will wait for your return amy…always will!

          • it’s because i called her out for her bullying mira. you can’t appease bullies like mary and i don’t think that one should anyway. i lost my temper before because i was ill but i did believe the part in it in which i said that people shouldn’t collaborate with trolls. i do believe that very strongly.
            you are the exact reverse as you have such a big heart.

          • The troll may not enjoy her return though as she will find it difficult to bash Rafa. If anyone here recalls, she was rooting for Delpo to win RG. A passionate fan of Rafa? I think not.
            And her real idol is struggling.
            #Retribution

          • Ms know all tells the troll to ignore me. I recall Ms know all also had attacked me viciously in support of the troll
            #trollsbandtogether

          • Well good luck in troll land Ms know all.
            Troll queen attacked me viciously and then attacked you for not being vicuious enough
            #trollsbandtogether

          • That wasn’t an attack – amy is not capable of the viciousness to which you stoop, Mary.
            Amy was right. I had failed to speak out. But no more silence on the matter from me.

          • rc i am sorry for what i said. i was just ill and very tired or i wouldnt have lost my temper. i know you are a good person. oh and as per above, i think you are smart! and you write really well imo. i studied eng lit at university so that is one thing i do know something about.

    • It looks like Diego came to play. This is why I have said that Novak is not back. At 5-5 in the first set, that’s when you have to be mentally focused. You don’t see Novak bailing out with poor drop shots.

      Novak may ultimately prevail here, but it could be quite the battle.

  16. Rafa’s dropped 15 games in 9 sets. that is about 1.6 games per set..

    It was about 2.1 games per set at this stage in 2008

  17. You can bet your bottom dollar he’ll refuse to play if it does start raining heavily. Last year after arguing with the officials he just turned and walked off the court.

  18. Diego is quite possibly too much for Novak to handle today. This clearly would be so huge a win for him. I know many fans want a Rafole but I don’t mind him losing to Diego. However I see Novak putting in a decent effort – still this could go on and on.

  19. When Rafa was struggling in 2015 & 2016 they were beginning to call him ‘arguably, the King of Clay’. Yesterday, Chris Bradnam upgraded him to ‘God of Clay’. 😉 😉 😉

        • Well, if Novak is indeed back, he be able to fight through this battle until the end and figure out a pattern for winning. But I’m not even sure he has the will to make that much of an effort. And this is a huge opportunity for Diego.

          Sort of cheering for Diego at this point. Make the stronger man win!

  20. So Diego really wins two sets from Djoko! Djoko will really have to up his game and hope that Diego not keeping up his level.

  21. Diego is running out of steam as expected. Not easy to go toe to toe with Djoko for three or four sets, don’t even need to talk about five sets!

    • Agree Lucky!..If Diego can stay with Novak in 5th and be able to win it somehow…i will applaud and salute him like he deserves…let’s see how Diego will handle his emotion now…it’s not easy to stay with Novak..even he is in so called slumping mood atm..

  22. Riveting battle. Agree Nole will find the way to win . Nevertheless he needs to cut out the errors and not just rely on
    Swarz, who has not had that much experiencer of five-setters, fading.

  23. I don’t remember how much time and effort Diego has already spent getting to this round. The would already be a fantastic win for Diego if it was BO3.

    Also I’m not sure Novak has his level of physical endurance. He’s maybe not making it better using up energy arguing with the ump.

    What was he so mad about? I missed it. Trying to follow 3 matches!

    • Oh yeah. Okay, thanks, Alison. He has been bouncing the balling up to 15-16 times. He bounces maybe 7 times and then restarts… He used to do it even worse before 2011. Sort of a relapse.

    • Ramos was already pissed off with ND and jumped at the opportunity to have a go at him. But goading a wounded animal is not a good idea.

  24. all this talk about the tv rule from the commies and especially petchey is doing my head in. just get rid of the rule for heaven’s sake.

  25. In the early days the endless bouncing before serving was excessive.I recall he frequently bounced up to 15+ times.

    • Three really good matches on at the same time and I have a channel for each one! Kuznetsova in a battle with Zhang. Sveta is my FO winner pick.

  26. Diego is done I think. At least he averted getting bageled.
    Djoko should make it to the semis. He is the most dangerous rival for Rafa on clay. Uncle T recognizes this. Hope they have prepared Rafa well.

    • Djoko still has two more players to deal with before the SF! Frankly, Djoko is not impressive at all but uses his fitness and stamina to grind his opponent down for a win. He playing like this, I’m not sure he won’t have problems with Pouille or ARV or Thiem.

  27. The problem with Diego is his court position behind the baseline! And, he’s unable to change it a bit during the match, doomed to fail. I mean how many times he fails to reach the drop shots in time to bring them over the net? Or, how often he hit into the net when hitting from a better court position closer to the baseline might help to avoid some of those.

    Djoko is going to run away with this final set as expected.

  28. Dreading the ritual ‘sharing his love’. Can understand indulging in the routine when he wins tournaments but imo it is inappropiate doing it after every match. This is R3 for goodness sake.

      • I’d completely forgotten he used to do that. And there was I hoping Agassi would stop him being so pretentious. He introduced the routine after he took on the Pseudo Guru. I commented a few days ago on the fact he seemed more composed since he linked up with AA.i but, as we saw by the outburst this afternoon, it was short-lived.

  29. Lucas Pouille – I picked him to win over ARV in my bracket because I was thinking about the crowd support. But Pouille hasn’t had the cc season ARV has had but Pouille loves the limelight.

    Ramos-Vinolas really should win this. If he can keep fighting under the pressure. This will at least go 4 sets.

    I see Nole won. And Sveta lost the 2nd set.

    • ARV has poor results after making final at MC. Pouille is also not playing well after reaching SF at MC.

      Pouille has more varieties in his game whilst ARV plays a typical clay court game; Pouille may do better than ARV when facing Djoko imo, as ARV’s rallying game will again play into Djoko’s hands. They won’t be winning against Djoko imo, just stretch him perhaps into four or five sets, before meeting Thiem most likely in the QF.

      Thiem is playing well so far, and if he’s able to beat Zeballios in straight sets, then I think he will have plenty of energy left to deal with Djoko if they meet in the QF. I expect the Thiem of Rome QF i/o Rome SF to appear should they really meet in the QF.

      • I guess Diego just got worn down. Novak gutted it out like I thought he would.

        That’s why it’s a tough ask to take out the top four in slams.

      • I think Nole will sail through the next 2 rounds and we will see the Rafa-Nole semi. I am really nervous about it because Nole has trained for years to beat Rafa on clay. However Rafa has had the edge at RG so far. Let us hope he will ruthlessly mow down Nole, dishing out bagels or breadsticks instead of going through the usual marathon.

  30. Heh heh…Strange…but i’m okay with Novak’s titting celebration..hehe..i think i’m the only one who’s okay with it…

        • Obviously concept of time in troll land is different. A Moment stretches and stretches….
          For your information MA loves trolls…Kavita, Stanley, you, rc….
          By the way I thought you had promised your fellow trolls you would ignore me?
          #PromisesMeanNothingToTrolls
          #QueenTrollisRedinToothAndClaw

          • amy has never initiated trolling anyone here in my experience.

            And your as wrong about her as I was about you being RITB. Deuce’s writing style and virtual personality are completely different. Not even close.

          • Mary you’re pretty much trolling by accusing people like rc of trolling. U trolled me one time by basically joking about how I wanted Stan to win only because I wanted roger to keep distance from Rafa in the slam count and not because I am a fan of Stan and his game. So you’re pretty much the only troll on here that I know of.

          • Now you are trolling because you do not know the history of rc and amy but you dare to accuse me of trolling. Kindly refrain from addressing me. I have no wish to interact with you.

      • Hey Joe!!…Give me five buddy!!…Yeah…i also don’t mind when he ate grass…or his spontaneus action on court…some say he’s an attention seeking..i also don’t mind that…for me…Novak is a natural very funny guy…he’s got the ability to make some usual thing to funny…i admire him a lot…whether as a tennis player or as a human being…

        • Right back at ya, Mira. Yes, I think Nole is very genuine, as is Rafa. Come to think of it, eating grass is not so different from chewing on a trophy.

  31. RT:Here are @RafaelNadal last 15 sets @rolandgarros : 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4, 6-1, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3, 6-0, 6-1, 6-0….total: 90-24

    • Wow! Amazing! But before I get too excited at the return of the Rafa juggernaut, I have to remind myself that he hasn’t yet been really tested. If he bagels or breadsticks RBA then maybe…
      2008 was so amazing. Though Rafa was dominant in 2013 too, the Rafa of 2008 was so much more. He bageled Fed at RG and then went on to beat him at Wimbly in what will probably be considered the greatest match ever. Nothing seemed impossible for Rafa. What a year it was for Rafa fans!

    • That was an amazing performance and an absolute demolition job. I felt so bad for the other guy, but there wasn’t much he could do. Actually, he could and should have tried a few other tactics, but the result would have been the same.

      I will note, mostly for Mary’s pleasure, that Rafa graciously conceded a point on a wrong call -albeit when he was leading 6-0, 4-0.

      • Joe Smith says AT 9:41 PM: “…Rafa graciously conceded a point on a wrong call…”

        Rafa has always corrected umpires’ wrong calls when he has SEEN the ball mark and it has been possible to inspect the mark closely. As for ‘conceding a point’, the chair umpire makes the final decision on whether the point will be replayed or a player wins the point.

        In April, it was impossible for Rafa to see the ball mark at Goffin’s baseline (!) from a distance of 25 metres. The chair umpire decided that the point had to be replayed.

        • The umpire may make the final decision, but it’s not always based on his/her personal inspection, is it? Rafa inspected the mark, thought it was in, and effectively conceded the point: the umpire didn’t step down to have a look, if I remember correctly.

          Incidentally, in the last two months I’ve seen enough disputed ball marks -marks, not calls- to think that the incident with Goffin wasn’t that unusual. Or rather it was unusual only in how far out the ball was. I think Hawkeye would be better if only to eliminate those cases -even if it is slightly less accurate than the mark on clay.

          • The point is, Rafa can concede based on his inspection. He is not allowed to go to the opponent’s side to inspect. I remember vaguely some female tennis star, Martina Hingis I think, went to the opponent’s side to inspect a mark and there was some furor. Maybe she was disqualified or maybe just docked a point but I registered it was a strict no no.
            Even though on replay the ball looks out, those sitting on Rafa’s side couldn’t say whether it was in or out. In fact I am not even certain the TV replay showed it correctly. It wasn’t Hawkeye so I am not sure how credible it is.
            But Joe I appreciate your attempts to be fair. You can convince me totally by watching Fed like a hawk and complaining when he gets any unfair advantage.

          • I don’t know how far that ball is out, but it looks to be about one ball width; if so, I’m not surprised at all, since that sort of call is challenged all the time, by most players. And Federer is one of the worst at challenging calls, so I’m even less surprised.

    • On the women’s side I think there are more such victories. I just googled and found
      Steffi Graf won, 6–0, 6–0, in 34 minutes against Natasha Zvereva in the 1988 French Open final

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