French Open R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Thiem, Murray vs. Matosevic

May 28, 2014 Ricky Match previews 158

Rafa 3Rafael Nadal’s French Open fortnight will heat up on Thursday with an intriguing second-round contest against Dominic Thiem. Andy Murray and Marinko Matosevic are also looking for a place in the last 32.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem

Heading into this season, neither fans nor players–at least not the majority–could have been familiar with Thiem. Fast forward five months and the 20-year-old Austrian has made a major name for himself. He will have his biggest opportunity yet to make headlines when performs on Court Philippe Chatrier during second-round action at the French Open on Thursday. Thiem, who started 2014 at No. 139 in the world and is now 57th, earned his 11th main-draw match win of the season with a 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-2 defeat of Paul-Henri Mathieu.

What is without question an opportunity for Thiem is also–undoubtedly–a terrible second-round draw. Nadal is 60-1 lifetime at Roland Garros, is the four-time defending champion, and has won eight titles at the event overall. The top-ranked Spaniard got his campaign started on Tuesday by routing American wild card Robby Ginepri 6-0, 6-3, 6-0. This will be far more competitive, because Thiem is in the midst of an outstanding clay-court swing and he has the power game that can trouble Nadal. It remains to be seen, however, how the underdog’s one-handed backhand holds up against the No. 1 seed’s heavy topspin. Most of the best tennis sportsbooks have Nadal as a -250 favorite to beat Thiem in straight sets. The favorite may do it, but it won’t be before an extremely entertaining fight.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

[polldaddy poll=8081019]

Marinko Matosevic vs. (7) Andy Murray

For the first time ever, Matosevic finds himself in round two of a Grand Slam. At long last, the 13th time proved to be the charm for the 28-year-old Australian. He had been a well-documented 0-12 lifetime at majors prior to his arrival at Roland Garros, but he finally got the monkey off his back with a 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-7(1), 7-5 victory over Dustin Brown on Tuesday. Matosevic owns a decent 12-13 record for the season.

Up next for the world No. 66 is Murray, who won their only previous encounter 6-2, 6-2 last summer on the grass courts of Queen’s Club. The eighth-ranked Scot booked his spot in the last 64 by taking out Andrey Golubev 6-1, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Murray’s year has been hampered by recovery from surgery, but he won two matches earlier this month in Rome before testing Nadal in an exciting three-setter. Matosevic will much prefer facing Murray on clay instead of grass, but you have to think he is content just to be in this situation–finally–and his game is likely to be broken down by Murray’s counter-punching.

Pick: Murray in 3

[polldaddy poll=8081021]

158 Comments on French Open R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Thiem, Murray vs. Matosevic

  2. Rafa. This will be Rafa’s first time playing Thiem so he will need a couple of games to figure Thiem’s game out. Thiem has a good serve, good attitude on court and has an aggressive game, Rafa will need to be careful. The only thing suspect about Thiem is his stamina.

    Muzza. Muzza needs to be aware of the lapses in concentration he has been subject to so far. I do not expect any resistance from Mad Dog…

    Reply

    • Do you think Thiem has a fighting chance? I’m thinking he will be overwhelmed by the court, the occasion, the le roi de la terre battue…my guess is he won’t win more than 5-7 games.

      Reply

      • I expect Thiem to fight. Do I think he has a chance? No. I like his attitude and I think that will help him settle in quickly on the big stage. Expect him to play super aggressive, nothing to lose tennis. I expect Rafa to focus on his own game, find his rhythm early, especially his serve. My only concern for Rafa is the weather, these heavy conditions really do not allow him to showcase his full repertoire, which is a shame.

        Anyway, he just needs to win, as quickly as possible.

        Vamos Rafa!

        Reply

      • Jeu you were spot on…7 games…..but to me this match was a dud. All the hype about Thiem, please! Why cant people allow the players to actually achieve something forst before they start hying them up! I was so nervous about this match bcos of all what was being said about Thiem but all that match was was good practice for Rafa!! And its all good bcos he needs to sort out getting broken so often!

        Vamos, Rafa!! Up, up and away!

        Reply

      • No, minor detail was the given that Rafa would win in two.

        The meat of the matter was how it would play out and it played out phenomenadally, not with Thiem winning so many easy games.

        Reply

  4. RT @juanjosetennis: “Is it just me, or does the red in RF’s sleeves not match the red in his shorts? Hideous kit regardless.”

    Cut him some slack, he’s a middle aged man, more fool he for deferring a visit to his Optician’s……….

    Reply

  6. I don’t think that Thieum will overwhelmed by the occasion. He’s got nothing to lose in this match. He’s a huge underdog. So he will come out blasting and try to get a quick start. This is Rafa’s first time playing him, so he may need a bit of time to figure him out. But I do not see Thiem being able to stay with Rafa for a best three out of five set match. I do think it could be entertaining.

    I am grateful that Rafa never takes his opponents for granted. He will be ready.

    Reply

  9. I hope tomorrow is sunny and nice weather because it would make a huge difference for Rafa…I hardly know this fellow Thiem but knowing he is a friend of Gulbis I expect him to put up a fight…however, I don’t see him beating Rafa as the above poll suggests ?!! 7 people voted for Rafa to lose tmrw?! Are you guys serious? And then we hear that this site is an exclusivity of Rafans…(if Rafa is by any chance threatened by Thiem on clay, then he really has nothing to do in the later stages of the RG)

    Rafa should find the way to deal with Thiem losing not more than 8-10 games…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  10. Bearing mind the weather conditions, Rafa’s tendency to start cautiously during the early rounds of a Slam, and the fact he doesn’t ‘know Thiem’s game, I will stick my neck out (thus risking the opprobrium of Naddy) by saying it is conceivable Rafa could drop the first set.
    Rafa in 4

    After the topsy turvy results so far in this RG I hesitate to predict an easy straight set win for Murray but it’s hard to see Matso winning a set let alone cause Andy too much worry. Subject as always to Andy keeping his mind on the job in hand.
    Murray in 3

    Reply

  11. I initially went along with Ricky’s prediction of Rafa winning in three sets, losing 11 to 14 games. But now I am starting to wonder if I should change my mind. I don’t care if anyone takes offense at what I may predict for Rafa’s matches. I have to stay true to myself. The simple fact is that the early rounds are always tricky. Rafa has struggled in the past during the first week of RG. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that it could happen again this year.

    A guy like Thiem is not who I would want Rafa to meet so early in the tournament. Rafa wasn’t pushed at all in his first match. He’s been off for two days and that’s not a good thing. Thiem is a young guy having a fantastic year so far. He’s talented and has the game to give Rafa some trouble. It could take Rafa a set to figure out his game.

    It’s funny, but I found myself thinking back to last year when everyone was touting JJ as the next big thing in tennis. So where is he this year? That’s why I don’t get carried away when a young guy gets some good results. It remains to be seen if Thiem is the real thing.

    Reply

  12. ^^^^^……….So where is he this year?

    Into the second round after a straight sets win again Neimenin much to his delight and most people’s surprise.

    Reply

  15. Rafa may lose the furst set if the weather is damp and heavy, but will blow Thiem off the court in the last set.

    Reply

      • He may have lost the match but he must have gained a lot of fans. He put up a good showing and fought bravely to make it an interesting match to watch.

        Reply

  18. RT @bgtennisnation : “At 803 way better weather day not as breezy or cool as yesterday only 10% chance of rain high in the 60’s”

    Reply

  20. Ginepri was a semi-finalist at the USO in 2005 and earned his wild card. Ginepri has a great serve and a good game.

    The 2nd set was competitive because, it got to 3:3 with Ginepri going for broke trying to hit winners all the time, he even had break point on Rafa’s serve. Obviously, he was never a threat but the match was not a gimme.

    Reply

  21. http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/05/first-ball-528-kids-have-day/51591/#.U4blNU1ZrIU

    “Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem

    This will be the first meeting between the world’s best player and its hottest prospect on the men’s side. One thing we know: The 20-year-old Thiem will give the ball a rip, and he’ll almost certainly do some damage for some length of time. One thing we don’t know: How will his one-handed backhand hold up against Nadal’s topspin? Not many have lived to tell the tale on clay. Winner: Nadal”

    I had forgotten the boy has a SHBH…….

    Reply

  23. RT @bgtennisnation: “Updated men’s odds Djoker 6/5 Rafa 5-4 Muzzard,Fedfan,little beast Ferrerrr 16-1 Jo-willy, Birdnan,Fogs,Missile Raonic 66-1”

    Reply

  24. This match would be like Rafa playing Dimitrov with Thiem having a big serve and one handed b/h. Rafa should do what he did against Dimi in Rome.

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  26. When did Dr. Ivo become a dirt-baller? He is going through matches and, wait for it………..winning sets without the need for TBs!

    Reply

    • Good morning to you, @jpacnw! Well, I’ve got about 14 minutes of morning left where I am…………….

      Enjoy the match, please do tell us your assessment of Rafa’s play overall. Sadly, I am unable to watch live, dastardly life interfering………….

      Reply

  30. I am at work. Following live scores and the comments on that IBM slam tracker. Would appreciate if anyone can tell me how is rafa playing? he must be pummeling thiem’s backhand….but how aggressive is he? taking the initiative or playing with safety for now?

    I hope the backhand is aggressive

    Reply

  31. Rafa mixing it up, but of course going after Thiem’s backhand, too. So far, looks like Thiem is having some trouble getting used to the spin and height of the ball coming at him and is making more unforced errors than he should be. Rafa has also been pretty successful at keeping Thiem behind the baseline.

    Reply

  33. Well, Rafa just failed to serve out the set. Got more passive, Thiem stepped into the court more and hit massive forehands. Rafa paid the price for it.

    Reply

  35. Rafa doesn’t seem a whole lot aggressive so far…however, the way Thiem has been playing Rafa’s approach did work…it’s just that I expect Thiem to go more aggressively now which will then ask for Rafa to step in more and attack Thiem…I am sure Rafa knows what to do…
    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  39. from what I see today Rafa isn’t going around the ball to hit more forehands but rather seem comfortable playing backhand…he is going quite often to the net…I wish he would do it more often though…I must admit this Thiem fellow has some great shots and he is moving pretty well…

    Reply

  45. a few of Rafa’s uncharacteristic errors and two great winners from Thiem and there it is…Rafa will need to step up again…

    Reply

  46. oh…rafa got broken ! did he get tentative? thiem hit some forehand winners so what happened?

    Leaving for home….may be i will be able to watch the end..

    Reply

  48. Just catching up on the IBM slam tracker, errors appear to be creeping into Rafa’s game in the 3rd set…………….needs to tighten up that aspect.

    Reply

  52. RT @SteveTignor: “Amazing that Nadal would be 60-1 at the French, where every match is an away match for him. Crowd behind Thiem today. #RG14”

    The crowd, the organisers, all of them, wish he would just go away but he does not. He keeps coming back, and winning. Shows how formidable his mentality is. Most players would have crumbled under such unrelenting heavy psychological pressure.

    Can you imagine what it will be like should Rafa play Novak in the final?

    Vamos Rafa!!

    Reply

  57. good match Rafa…many expected more drama but Rafa refused to treat them with it…

    Well played Rafa!
    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • Ha! I never win ANYTHING. Like Nada! (See what I did there?). That is the true. Jesting aside, I just didn’t see Thiem holding up mentally. Not on PC…and from Tiggy’s tweet above, having the French root against him, makes Rafa fight harder.

      Reply

      • Why come to see a guy play and then root against him…smh?………..irrational french! Or unless they actually like him but not realise it………lol!?

        Reply

    • Yeah, just so that they can root against him….sheesh! But its true the seats have been quite empty for the matches!

      Reply

  67. Do they pack out his practice sessions to root against him? I don’t buy the hatred thing. Yes they root against him sometimes but Santoro says maybe they’d like to see someone different win it.

    Rafa got the loudest cheer when he entered the court and there were loads of cameras from the stands taking pictures of him. So many wanted a selfie with him after the match.

    Reply

    • I have now come round to not caring whether “the French” hate him or not because either way, it does not matter to Rafa. What matters to him is that he does what he is paid to do: win.

      What surprises me though is the missed marketing opportunity by the French Tennis Federation to hitch their wagon to Rafa’s worldwide popularity (he is popular, just check the Time.com survey I posted on the non-tennis thread) and specifically, his amazing run at RG. Compared to the other Slams RG is seriously lagging in terms of investment outlay and has a long way to go to catch up. Why not leverage Rafa’s success there for their own benefit in the meantime, instead of appearing indifferent at best, and outrightly hostile at worst?

      Reply

  68. Not just the French Open either.

    Federazzi went berserk and gave Rosol a standing-O when he beat Nadal. Same for Darcis last year.

    French just happen to be the worst.

    Reply

  70. At last SKY got the message. After saying yesterday that Djerk was the 2011 RG champion, today they’ve announced that the defending champion Rafael Nadal is through to the 3rd round and that he is looking for his 9th title at the FO.

    Reply

  71. Dominic Thiem
    7 mins ·
    2:6, 2:6, 3:6 against Rafael Nadal. I have not played so badly. But there were many little things not good enough, that I call him real. Especially mega many rookie mistakes were there. Minor errors. The pass because you on sand against Rafa Nadal just still want to play better than against the other. And because he gives you just about absolutely nothing. In the largest sand course in the world are allowed to play against the best clay court player in the world, which was a mega experience. That I really want to experience again. And the next time I will get there in more detail. For that I need tomorrow to work as hard as I possibly can. Thank you for your incredible support!
    //
    2:6, 2:6, 3:6 against Rafael Nadal. I didn’t play a bad match. But many details were not good enough to make it a test for him. Most of them were real rookie-errors. Easy unforced errors. They happen because you want to play better on clay against Rafael Nadal than you want to play against anybody else. And because he absolutely doesn’t help you. No errors, no presents. It was a mega experience to stand on the biggest clay court in the world together with the best claycourt player in the world. I unconditionally want to make that experience that again. And the next time I want to come one step closer. This is a big goal and worth working for it as hard as I can. Thanks for your incredible support!

    Reply

    • Rafa’s challenge to Roger almost a decade ago got Roger to work harder on his game, up to a point. The level the two of them played at once Rafa got going got many other players to work harder on their game. One who work hard to reach very high levels is Nole. There are others. Now the best thing that can happen to Thiem is to play Rafa often before Rafa retires.

      Reply

      • Once more, now with more, I mean less bias. Now the best thing that can happen to Thiem is to play Rafa and Nole often before they retire.

        Reply

  72. @rafaeli119

    @KayBurley SKYSports:Djokovic has never won the FO. Nadal has won it 8 of the last 9 years and was the 2011 champion. SkySports is WRONG. – 28 May

    Kay Burley
    @KayBurley

    Yes!
    Follow Follow

    @rafaeli119 thanks

    Reply

  74. Kay Burley replied to your Tweet!

    @rafaeli119

    @KayBurley SKYSports:Djokovic has never won the FO. Nadal has won it 8 of the last 9 years and was the 2011 champion. SkySports is WRONG. – 28 May

    Kay Burley
    @KayBurley

    @rafaeli119 thanks

    03:51 PM – 28 May 14

    Reply

  84. Honestly I feel more relaxed now. The first 2 matches are always the trickiest for Rafa I feel. Now he has relatively good matches going into the quarters and by then he will be well “bedded” in and ……………………watch out!

    Reply

    • He is certainly having a better start than last year! if you recall, he lost a set in both his first round matches. And last year he was the favourite! Memo to press: Keep putting the pressure on Nole.

      Reply

      • He had a horrid start last year! Totally remember how I was on the edge this time last year. Definitely, Novak MUST be the favourite every year now on………….

        Reply

    • I hope you are right. Sometimes I get the feeling the tricky earlier rounds prepare him for the stiffer competition in the second week like USO ’10, FO’11, Wim’10. But one match at a time.

      Reply

      • @vmk1,

        This is exactly what I addressed in my initial post after seeing the last set of Rafa’s match. It’s a delicate balance, because we don’t want Rafa killing himself or wearing himself out in the early going. But we also know that when Rafa is tested, that’s when he finds his best form.

        I agree about one match at a time! Just like Rafa!

        Reply

  85. just one off -topic comment: I am watching game, set and mats at the moment…I just love the outfit of Annabel Croft …her dress is simply beautiful… sorry guys…I couldn’t resist… 🙂

    Reply

  86. I only got home in time to see the third set of Rafa’s match on the tennis channel replay. I hope to see it later tonight when they replay the matches again. I really wanted to watch the whole thing.

    One thing of concern is that Rafa is not taking advantage of break opportunities. When i tuned in it was Thiem up a break 2-1, but Rafa had so many break chances in that game. I hope that this is something he will work on as he moves ahead in this tournament. From what I saw, Thiem gave a good account of himself, but in the end was just outclassed by the King. He will learn a lot from this match. I thought Thiem might make it more competitive but it appears that Rafa was ready.

    I have mixed feelings about Rafa having it easy in the early rounds. On the one hand, it saves him from having to push himself and exert himself too much. But on the other hand, Rafa only gets better when he is pushed. That brings out his best. I don’t see Mayer giving him much trouble. He’s a good opponent in the sense that he will give Rafa rhythm. He’s not one of those big serving guys that are a nightmare to play. I like Rafa’s draw now. Maybe he won’t have it that tough in the early going and then will bump up against Ferrer and Murray in the second week.

    I can’t say too much more about Rafa’s game, just that I like the scoreline and am happy to see him looking good. He really did look very happy after the match. So he knew that he did well against a young kid with real potential.

    Reply

  87. Lol @ 21 votes for Thiem to win the match. Another over-rated and over-hyped youngster. Yawn. It’s getting old. Gasquet, Gulbis, Raonic, Dimitrov and now Thiem. It seems the media is sick and tired of the Big 4. Well it’s kinda 2 now. However it’s still their time and the majors will be dominated by them for another 3-5 years. Stan won his major by extreme luck. Other than that the others won’t be breaking through any time soon. Keep looking guys.

    Reply

  88. Yes, I remember all too well when everyone and his brother was touting Janowicz as the next big thing in men’s tennis. I remember some predicting he would be in the top ten and maybe even qualify this year for the WTF! So what happened? Reality, that’s what! The key to success in this sport is consistency over time. That is what I look for, along with the other requirements such as a good solid game, some mental toughness, physical fitness and that one great shot. But all too often everyone seems to jump on the bandwagon when one of the young guys has a big win or two.However, reality always seems to set it for them. Also, you don’t see them bringing it at the slams. That’s where you separate the men from the boys!

    Reply

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