French Open R1 previews: Federer vs. Carreno-Busta, Troicki vs. Blake

Roger Federer will kick off his Roland Garros campaign on Sunday against dangerous qualifier Pablo Carreno-Busta. Viktor Troicki and James Blake are also looking for a place in the second round.

(Q) Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer will begin his bid for a second French Open title when he takes to the dirt on Court Philippe Chatrier on Sunday afternoon. The third-ranked Swiss is 54-13 lifetime at Roland Garros, which includes a title in 2009 and four runner-up finishes–all to Rafael Nadal. Federer has been in mediocre form for the most part throughout 2013 and he is still in search of his first winner”s trophy. The 17-time major champion returned after a two-month break following Indian Wells and fell in the Madrid third round before advancing to the Rome final (lost to Nadal 6-1, 6-3).

Up first for Federer is Carreno-Busta, who has stormed onto the scene in 2013–first at the Futures level and now on the ATP Tour. The 21-year-old Spaniard won 39 consecutive Futures matches, good for seven consecutive titles. Carreno-Busta also reached second rounds in Casablanca and Barcelona in addition to a semifinal run in Oeiras, where he lost to eventual champion Stanislas Wawrinka in three sets.

Arguably the most dangerous of the qualifiers, Carreno-Busta already has wins under his belt in Paris over Dominik Meffert, Joao Souza, and Vincent Millot. Going up against Federer in his first career main-draw match at a slam is obviously a much different proposition, so it’s hard to imagine Carreno-Busta’s streak continuing. Still, this will not be a walkover that it appeared to be for Federer when the draw was initially revealed.

Pick: Federer 6-2, 7-5, 6-3

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Viktor Troicki vs. James Blake

Troicki and Blake will be colliding for the first time in their careers on Sunday at Roland Garros. At 33 years old, Blake has mostly reduced his schedule to hard-court events at home in the United States (plus the four Grand Slams). The world No. 93 played one clay-court match earlier this spring in Houston, where he fell to Gael Monfils 7-6(5), 7-5 during first-round action. Blake is a modest 4-5 for the season.

Whereas the American skipped the European clay-court swing until now,  Troicki has remained in action. The 44th-ranked Serb owns a 6-5 record on the slow stuff and he arguably earned more fame than he ever had previously in his career with a monumental meltdown during a 6-1, 6-1 loss to Ernests Gulbis in the Rome second round. Troicki is by no means on fire, but Blake will be rusty and clay has always been his worst surface.

Pick: Troicki in 4

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