The first round of the 2024 French Open will feature a player who has won the tournament 14 times going up against a player who is among the favorites to win it this time.
It’s also a rematch of one the 2022 tennis season’s most memorable moments.
For the first time since their Roland Garros semifinal showdown two years ago, Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev will be squaring off on Monday afternoon in Paris. Zverev infamously retired from that match after suffering a terrible injury in the second-set tiebreaker, giving Nadal a 7-3 lead in the head-to-head series. The Spaniard has won five of their six clay-court encounters, with Zverev’s only such win coming in the 2021 Madrid quarterfinals.
Nadal went on to capture yet another title after getting the retirement from Zverev, but this version of Nadal certainly isn’t the same as the one who last lifted La Coupe des Mousquetaires. Due to a recurring hip problem, the 37-year-old has played sparingly over the past two seasons. His clay-court comeback in 2024 includes a fourth-round performance in Madrid, but he lost his second match in both Barcelona and Rome–the latter while taking just four total games off Hubert Hurkacz.
Ten years Nadal’s junior at 27, Zverev’s comeback from his own injury has been spectacular. After missing the remainder of the 2022 campaign, he climbed back up to No. 7 in the rankings by the end of 2023 and currently registers at No. 4. The German is 28-9 this season and coming off his second Rome Masters title.
“I think both of us, if we would have a choice, we would choose differently, for sure,” Zverev commented. “I really wanted to play him one more time–one more time. Because I didn’t want my last memory to be me rolling off in a wheelchair off Philippe-Chatrier. I really wanted to play him here. I did not want to play him in the first round; I wanted to play him in the semifinals, finals–a later stage of the tournament.
“For me, in my mind I’m going to play peak Rafa Nadal. That’s what I expect him to be. I expect him to be at his absolute best.”
“The reaction is something that I expected in some way,” Nadal said of the draw. “When you are
not seeded, anything can happen. Of course on paper (it) is not the best draw. I play against one of the toughest opponents possible. He came here winning the last event–a Masters 1000; it’s not
a small one. So what can I do? That’s the draw. Just try to be ready for it.”
Even if Nadal is ready from a physical standpoint, it’s a terrible matchup for him. Like Hurkacz did in Rome, Zverev can serve huge, dictate play from the baseline, and keep Nadal on defense. Most importantly, Zverev is a 6’6” opponent who wields one of the best two-handed backhands in the sport. The King of Clay’s topspin forehand doesn’t work against Zverev like it does against most guys.
Nadal will undoubtedly put up a fight, but this looks like a first-round test that will be too tough.
Pick: Zverev in 4
who ya got?
Ricky, u pick Zverev in 4?! How many times have you ppl totally underestimate Rafa?!!! Some ppl will never learn!!!
watch
Unfortunately I can’t, I’m at work but I’m keeping abreast with the scores!
Ricky, I really have to give it to you unfortunately….,..,,u were right! I really hate to have to say this but Rafa has come to the end of the road I’m afraid……,so sad! Really don’t like this end to his run here 😩😩🥲😢🥲😢
he actually played decent
Tsitsipas
I love Rafa…and have loved him for 20 years….but Zv too young, too strong….Zv in 3.
What about Jarry? only 1 set competitive – the rest 1 2 and 0.
Strange one that. Maybe Moutet up to his usual tricks plus the crowd factor.
Well, this is actually very hard to pick as there are multiple factors involved.
Just because Zverev has a good serve and can he hold his own in the rallies with Rafa does not mean that he’s a “terrible matchup” for Nadal.
Emphasising so much on the serve is very American and it’s probably the reason why American tennis players are nowhere to be found these days. They just build on the wrong foundation and mentality. A good player can learn to serve well (enough), a great server may never learn to do much else.
Of course, Zverev is not (just) a serve bot, but still he’s just too tall to have a perfect clay game. Him rolling his ankle two years ago was not entirely an accident; he just tried to do things that his build cannot withstand. He did nothing that impressive on clay this year – he just took advantage of an extremely weak field in Rome (he didn’t face a single top 10 player). His run on clay always ends when he meets a surface specialist (Madrid is a different discussion).
Indeed, Zverev would not be that disturbed by high balls on his backhand, but he can be rather easily dismantled by having him scrambling from one corner to another and especially having to abruptly switch direction – that’s when ankles break.
Today it’s going to be much more about Rafa’s capabilities than the Russian’s. Practice is different from competition and Nadal himself was recently surprised by his low level against Hurkacz. That’s what can easily happen today as well – and Ricky is counting on it. However, nobody can know for sure how things are going to turn out, not even Rafa. If he was able to win AO 2022, he’s definitely capable of winning this RG.
From a mental perspective, Zverev has everything to lose today and Nadal little to nothing. The Russian must be thinking that with some luck he can pull another Rome and that he might never have such an opportunity in the future. Also he can join the select list of players beating Rafa at RG – records don’t mention that it was a diminished Rafa, just ask Soderling. Nadal smartly avoided the “last RG” pressure and he’ll be just trying to find his best game or dragging his opponent deep in the trenches.
We can safely assume that Zverev won’t be firing on all cylinders today either – he tends to start slow and peak in the second weak (same as Nadal actually).
What could prove crucial in this encounter is the mental side. The Russian is known to melt down under pressure and things are looking dire for him today. The 6’6” bully is going to get bullied – by the crowd for sure and quite possibly by Rafa as well. Even if he comes from a culture where his treatment to women is not just acceptable but rather normal, even if he’s quite confident that he’ll not be convicted (let’s face it, it’s highly unlikely that his former GF didn’t know what she was getting into – she’s probably just wanting a better deal and Zverev knows that he can pay his way out) – he won’t be able to ignore or feed on crowd hostility.
From my perspective, any outcome is possible and probably 4-1 Zverev is safest to predict, especially if you want Djokovic to win RG.
On the other hand, if Rafa is winning today, the fear factor will instantly kick in for the field and it will be as he never left. I do agree that this draw may be a blessing in disguise. He will find out from the first match if he’s ready or not. Much better than toiling/losing against nobodys in case he still needs some time.
As a side note, it’s ironic that GS customised seeding was okay while Federer benefited from it and Nadal was disadvantaged; once Rafa started to have results on grass as well, the system was deemed as not working (which clearly illustrates its only purpose). Mauresmo could have made Nadal some justice, but she didn’t have the b***s.
Zverev called for this rematch and his wish was granted – he should have been more specific and ask for the same competition stage as well. If there’s some divine intervention involved, this has to be a punishment.
I totally agree with you there Christian on the point of customized seeding!!!!!! Rafa should have at least be seeded in The top 10 given his results here!! That was my very first thought when I saw the draw!!!! But anyway, if Rafa wins today, and I believe he will do, it will just give way more credence to his greatness!!!!!
VAMOS, Rafa!! 💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽
An interesting analysis and, as you say, difficult to call. How fit is Rafa, that’s the question. Match on his racquet.
You’re so biased. Period.
So they are playing indoors? Marvellous. Rafa drops opening game🥵
Rafa hitting way too short
But starting to play much better, Amy. Fingers crossed. Is short of match play, so slow start.
Yes playing much better. Started playing way too spinny
Zverev serving at nearly 80 percent makes life very difficult
Guys it’s Rafa”s very first match, he hasn’t had a customary start to the clay season, he always starts slow and he is playing Zverev!!! Rafa KNOWS what to do………..he is NOT losing this match!!!!
Yess!! That great hold inspired him. Now hold!!
Such a pity this is first round because at times Rafa looks like the Rafa of hold
Come on Rafa!! I hate it when he has to serve for the set.
Come on! Vamos!
Rafa has all what it takes to win this match, he just doesn’t seem to want it enough!! U serve for the set and go down 0:40?!!! Sigh!!
So DISAPPOINTING!!!!
Such strange decisions in the tb playing multiple dubious drop shots
Rafa starting to look tired..
Very unlucky they are playing indoors so doesn’t get advantage for spin
Commies really annoying me have had to mute them
My gosh, Rafa didn’t even win ONE set, after serving for it in the second?! Geeeze!!!!! What the hell?! I seriously can’t believe this?!!
and was up a break in the third
Sorry Amy and Mona.
Am ok Margot. Proud of how he played. I never thought he would win in the first round against Zverev
Glad u r OK.
I never thought Rafa would win this match. He has hardly played in the last 18 months.
He did himself credit playing so well in adverse conditions.
Icon of the sport who will never be replaced.
Proud of him today.
Much love to Rafa for all the joy and happiness he has given his fans. 22 slams and 14 RG. Absolute legend of the game.
Xxxx