(24) Stan Wawrinka vs. (3) Roger Federer
Ricky: Wawrinka’s victory in the match of the tournament–a five-hour and eight-minute battle with Stefanos Tsitsipas–was another sign that he is on the way back to his best. But it could also leave him depleted for this one, and the underdog will have to be in peak form given the way Federer is playing. The head-to-head history also can’t be overlooked: it’s 22-3 in favor of the 37-year-old. Federer in 4: 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4, 6-3.
Cheryl: This prolific matchup has been almost comically one-sided. Switzerland’s top two players will meet for the 26th time in Paris–Federer has won 22 of their 25 previous meetings. The one spot of good news for Wawrinka is that one of his wins came at RG back in 2015. Of course, Federer is playing much better now than he was then and Wawrinka comes in off a marathon five-hour win over Tsitsipas. This should be Federer’s for the taking. Federer in 3: 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.
Mert: Two close sets and a third in which the Swiss kind of gives up after his one-handed backhand starts breaking down because of all the variety in pace and spin that his opponent is throwing at him. Ha! That last bit gave it away, didn’t it?
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(7) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: Nadal generally owns Nishikori (10-2), and their 13th meeting should be the most lopsided of all. The Spaniard is rolling, while Nishikori is coming off two straight five-setters and–as usual–probably won’t have anything left in the tank. This will likely be Nadal by retirement, but I’ll say three sets for the sake of a real score. Nadal in 3: 6-3, 6-2, 6-0.
Cheryl: It’s been relatively smooth sailing for Rafael Nadal (as it often is at RG). The 11-time champion has dropped a single set to David Goffin in the third round, but he breezed past Juan Ignacio Londero in the fourth. Nishikori, meanwhile, does what he does at slams–which is to pull out five-set victories. He spent more about eight and a half hours on court in just the third and fourth rounds alone. It’s hard to imagine him holding up under Nadal’s usual clay-court assault. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 6-2, 6-1.
Mert: You know, I would pick Nishikori for an upset in one of these matchups with Nadal for if only we just took the two of them and said to them somewhere during an off week, “hey, play each other a match.” The problem is, Kei gets a chance these upsets over the elite guys in majors only after he has exhausted himself through long matches in the first week. So, once again, no! Nadal in 3: 7-6, 6-2, 6-3.
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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Alexander Zverev
Ricky: In a second straight French Open and for the second time in his entire slam career, Zverev is through to the quarterfinals. But the German has been forced to work hard, whereas Djokovic has been sleepwalking. The well-rested world No. 1 will also be eager to avenge last year’s loss in the Nitto ATP Finals championship match. Djokovic in 3: 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-1.
Cheryl: Zverev is perfectly capable of beating Djokovic. He did so in the final of the Nitto ATP Finals just this past November. But that was a best-of-three match, not a best of five. There is also the fact that Zverev has already played an awful lot of tennis in Paris, while Djokovic hasn’t even come close to dropping a set. Zverev might take the first set of the tournament from Djokovic, but that’s about all he’ll get. Djokovic in 4: 6-2, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.
Mert: Zverev has come a long way in this major and played some of his best tennis in his fourth-round win over Fognini. One would think that he is ready to make the next career jump in terms of performance at the Majors. It will not be happening on Wednesday though because Novak Djokovic does everything Sascha does, but a bit (or a lot better) at this point. Djokovic in 3: 6-4, 6-1, 6-4.
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(10) Karen Khachanov vs. (4) Dominic Thiem
Ricky: Khachanov had pretty much been a disaster this season prior to his arrival in Paris, but the city of lights seems to do something for his game. He won the Paris Indoors last fall and is now through to a major quarterfinal for the first time in his career. At this point, though, Thiem owns a massive edge in slam experience and clay is the last surface on which anyone other than Nadal wants to face the Austrian. Thiem in 4: 7-5, 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-3.
Cheryl: Thiem is now just hitting his stride at Roland Garros. The Austrian has improved with each match he’s played, but he was particularly impressive in his round of 16 romp over Gael Monfils, which he won in easy straight sets. Khachanov has had a surprisingly good run so far this fortnight. The Russian has endured a pretty miserable year so far, but he has shown no signs of the form that saw him out of the AO in the third round. Thiem in 3: 6-4, 6-2, 7-6(5).
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who ya got?
Remarkable unanimity among the Experts. Not gonna disagree. 🙂
Cheryl, I’m interested in your claim that Federer is playing much better now than he was in 2015. I thought he played pretty well at RG that year, including in the QF where he was lost to a world-beating Stan. A few weeks later he played some of the best tennis of his life in the wimby SF against Murray. What do you think he is doing better now?
from my point of view, federer is indeed playing better now. he has won 3 slams the last 2 years and he didnt win any of the slams for more than 3 years in 2015. i think he is playing a lot smarter now.
Fed 6-4 7-6(3) 5-7 6-2
Nadal 6-2 6-2 6-4
Djokovic 6-3 3-6 7-5 6-4
Thiem 7-6(3) 6-4 4-6 6-4
come on Zverev pull off the upset 🙂
Federer, Thiem and Djokovic in 3.
Nadal 6-1, 2-0 ret.
Nadal in 3
Federer in 4 (maybe 3)
Theim in 5 (This one is very close. Khachanov could deliver upset of the tournament)
Djokovic in 4 (Zverev is playing too well not be a strong chance of winning at least a set)
Stan in 5, Nadal in 3, Djoko in 5 and Thiem in 4
Every time Fed has had 30:15 or 30:30 on Wawrinka’s serve, Wawrinka has had the answer.
Fed just can’t seem to get anywhere on the break points, this must be how Tsitsipas was feeling.
To Stan’s credit he absolutely ups his level on the BP’s, hits more 1st serves & hits them bigger.
Fed though has still blown a few opportunities. Opening game of the match he had a decent FH open & missed it by like two metres. I think the BP conversion fail is definitely in Fed’s head at this point. Very much deja vu for Roger fans with his inability to convert on the big chances.