French Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Carreno Busta

In his French Open fourth-round match against Karen Khachanov, Novak Djokovic hit a return off the frame that ricocheted into a linesperson’s face.

In the quarterfinals, Djokovic will go up against none other than Pablo Carreno Busta.

It is deja vu all over again for the world No. 1, who was infamously defaulted from the U.S. Open for accidentally hitting a lineswoman with a ball out of frustration while trailing Carreno Busta 6-5 in the opening set of their fourth-round contest.

Unsurprisingly, that marks the Spaniard’s lone “win” in the head-to-head series. Djokovic had won all three of their previous encounters, including two on clay. He prevailed 6-0, 6-1 at the 2014 Monte-Carlo Masters, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 at the same event in 2017, and 6-3, 6-4 at last year’s Cincinnati Masters.

Carreno Busta’s “win” also marks Djokovic’s lone “loss” of the season. The 33-year-old is otherwise sporting an undefeated 35-0 record, with titles at the Australian Open, Doha, Cincinnati, and Rome. So far at Roland-Garros he has not dropped a set while disposing of Mikael Ymer, Ricardas Berankis, Daniel Elahi Galan, and Karen Khachanov.

Although not exactly at the same level, Carreno Busta is also playing some of the best tennis of his career. The world No. 18 followed up Djokovic’s default by reaching the semifinals in New York and coming within one set of being a Grand Slam finalist. He is back in a slam quarterfinal for the fourth time in his career (second in Paris) following victories over John Millman, Guido Pella, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Daniel Altmaier.

“Everyone knows (what happened in New York,” Carreno Busta said. “But I think this is another match; another battle…. I think it was bad luck. This is a tough situation for him. I know that he didn’t want to do this. Sometimes (it) is better to forget it. I think Novak is a great player; a great person. Sometimes we cannot control our emotions. We have to do it. Sometimes (it) is not easy. (It was) a mistake.

“I don’t think [it will] come into my mind (on Wednesday), because (it) is something that normally never happens. Of course, I’m not thinking [that it] happens again. I (am) just thinking about doing my best, try to do a good match, have the opportunities to be close on the score.”

Just keeping it close would represent a strong effort, because no Djokovic has managed to do it so far this fortnight and few have even done it this whole season. The top seed quite literally has unfinished business with Carreno Busta and he will likely finish it in swift fashion.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Carreno Busta?

78 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Carreno Busta

  1. I think Carreno Busta has some say in the matter, he should’ve made the USO final and could’ve possibly won it if he did. Djokovic also sensed he was in a tough battle before being disqualified and PCB has improved since then.

    It’s easy to make predictions based on the probabilities and you only have to look at the bookmaker’s odds to know 3-0 is the most likely outcome but providing a narrative should give consideration all possible outcomes.

    I think If PCB continues to play well he could win a set and make things interesting but there is plenty of reason for Djokovivc to want a straight sets victory.

    Djokovic in 4

  2. Djoko in three or four sets, unless PCB suddenly turns unbeatable.

    Something interesting : Schwartzman beat Rafa at Rome and now they’re going to meet again in the SF; Rublev beat Tsitsipas at Hamburg and they’re going to face each other in the QF. Djoko lost the match by default, to PCB at the USO and now they’re going to meet in the QF. Time for revenge?

  3. Pablo was leading Djokovic 6-5 with a break in the first set which is why Djokovic hit the unfortunate ball in frustration. That match wasn’t going to be a walk in the park for Djokovic.

      • Who cares?!! There’s always something when things r not going his way! Just wait till he wins the second set and all the so called ailments just miraculously disappear! Steups!! That’s y i can never learn to like this guy!!

    • No Djoko won’t retire. He has now won the second set and has levelled the match. He’s going to win in four now.

      PCB, I don’t know whether he’s unwell or not but he’s not helping himself by always hitting CC to Djoko. Why engage in long rallies with Djoko if you’re unwell; might as well take more risk and tries to break the predictability of going CC all the time.

      This QF is the most boring of the four, I can see only CC rallies, no DTL shots, maybe only a few drop shots that’s about all.

      Tsitsipas, please do not let your opponent in the SF lull you into sleep should he continue to play like this. Please don’t fall into the trap, just put in your best efforts to beat your opponent no matter who he is.

  4. the likes of PCB and RBA (when playing at their best) are not easy match-ups for Novak. Nonetheless, it is evident something is wrong with him today. He seems very uncomfortable and kind of flat. Don’t see the usual energy

  5. Djoko has done a good job of being two sets to one up considering he is not feeling well physcially.. his aerve is the one bailing him out in most games.. the champion mentality.. I do not think he is faking.. even if he is and if the field plays worse because of that then it is a great strategy which is easy to emulate for other players too.

  6. Vmk1
    I take it you encourage fake injury as a licit strategy.
    He shouldn’t be too surprised that he’s not the people’s champion then, should he?
    And btw, he’s faking.
    Of course, he doesn’t do it all the time, sometimes he’s genuinely injured in which case he retires as one does when injured.

    • No i am saying that he is NOT faking.. even if he is at the top level of sport if the opponent faking makes you play worse then the problem lies with the opponent and not the faker.. i dont think any top athlete will fake and let a set go

      • I will never agree to someone being outplayed by shady tactics because it undermines everything sports represents.
        He can’t be seriously injured, otherwise he would be forced to stop so, if not faking he only lets the pain show when things don’t go his way, I suppose.

        • I humbly disagree shireling.. tennis players are always beat up as rafa himself said.. they manage pain when they play.. an injury need not be black and white where you are either 100% fit or cannot take the court at all.. there could be injuries where certain components of your game are compromised and in djokovics case it is apparent.. he is making a lot off errors off the shots that he is normally extremely solid.. he probably is very fortunate that he does not have an opponent who could take advantage of his injury

          • Very fair, thank you vmk1.

            If he starts out like that and is in pain out there, I can’t see him make past Tsitsipas.

  7. No need to agree.
    I hear your opinion, just don’t share it.
    Perhaps I went to far when proclaiming the faking, after all I can’t prove it anyway.
    But his histrionics when not playing well are certainly frustrating to watch.

    • Shireling you are absolutely right. I agree with you 100%. If some people don’t agree with you, that’s their business. You are calling a spade a spade period. Do not back down on your opinion bc I believe you are right. Djokovic is notorious for faking injury or whatever you call it his doing(ie gamesmanship) whenever someone is beating him or giving him a difficult match. It is as clear as crystal.

      We Rafans have had to endure forever endless criticisms of Rafa taking too much time between points and we never denied it, heck even a stop clock was invented bc of Rafa. We Have been hearing and accepting that criticism for ages but apparently we can’t criticize djokovic for his usual fake injury/Mto/gamesmanship when things are not going his way? Give me break.

    • Shireling you are absolutely right. I agree with you 100%. If some people don’t agree with you, that’s their business. You are calling a spade a spade period. Do not back down on your opinion bc I believe you are right. Djokovic is notorious for faking injury or whatever you call it his doing(ie gamesmanship) whenever someone is beating him or giving him a difficult match. It is as clear as crystal.

      We Rafans have had to endure forever endless criticisms of Rafa taking too much time between points and we never denied it, heck even a stop clock was invented bc of Rafa. We Have been hearing and accepting that criticism for ages but apparently we can’t criticize djokovic for his usual fake injury/Mto/gamesmanship when things are not going his way? Give me break.

  8. He clearly didn’t seem 100% and was making uncharacteristic errors. he wasn’t faking anything. VMK I agree with you. Great fight by Busta, his level has really gone up recently

  9. From Incorrect Tennis Quotes twitter:

    Umpire: why do you need a medical time out?

    Djokovic: the other guy is winning.

    Umpire: that’s not an injury.

    Djokovic: It’s a spiritual injury!

  10. I usually give the benefit of doubt to the players and would say even today there was probably something wrong with him.

    However, what PCB said about him is startling:

    e didn’t surprise me [that he asked for a MTO]. It’s a good thing. It’s a sign that he is losing and that I was playing well, because he always does that. It’s something that he has been doing for years. When he is down, he asks for the trainer” JosĂ© Morgado
    @josemorgado

    Not sure if the above is the perfect translation but there’s another one from reddit:

    “Every time the game gets complicated, he asks for medical assistance. He has been doing this for a long time… I already knew; i knew what would happen at the US Open, what would happen here and what will continue to happen.”

    If Djokovic has such a reputation in the locker room, it is kind of a shame.

    In my opinion ,given how physical his style of play is and how much he plays, you’d expect some issues here and there. He is one of the best fighters I’ve ever seen on the court but yeah, it is startling sometimes how his matches unfold.

  11. Didn’t Djokovic have neck issues in this year’s Southern & Western at the beginning of the tournament? If he’s got ’em again I expect they’ll go away again.

  12. For the record, I do not think that faking injuries is an appropriate strategy for winning a match or throwing the opponent off. I cannot day if Novak was faking injury here. I try to give players the benefit of the doubt. I have noticed his inclination to have various aches and pains and niggles when he is losing. Maybe that is just his frustration coming out.

    By the way, there should be no reason for the players to be worn out. They have not played for most of the year. If anything they probably don’t have enough matches and playing time. It’s been a crazy year with this virus.

    But I do not condone the faking of an injury and saying it is the opponent’s fault if they fall for it, That is just bullshit.

    • You should only give the benefit of the doubt when there is no existing pattern behavior otherwise you’re simply a fool. You only have to look at Djokovic’s historical pattern of behavior to know this happens almost every time he is losing a match and rarely, if ever happens, when he is winning a match.

      By calling an injury timeout you are taking back control of the match and having it played on your terms. Matches are won and lost on momentum, that’s why the best players like Nadal and Djokovic use it so much to their advantage and when you disrupt the momentum of your opponent they have to beat your more than once to win the match…and not only that, it’s harder to beat your opponent after your momentum has been disrupted because every time you miss a shot you know its because he disrupted your concentration and momentum.

      Think about it, every time you lose the first set and there is a risk you might go down a break at the start of the 2nd set and the match is almost over, you can call the trainer and have the match start again on your terms. It’s a formula that makes it almost impossible to lose when you’re Djokovic’s level and with his style of play. How is that fair?

  13. Because he is a good player and wins people are willing to ignore the fact that he also rorts the system to achieve his success. I think that’s wrong.

    What a lot of people don’t understand is Djokovic’s behavior is very common in Eastern Europe. He comes from a worn torn country and thinks youre an idiot if you play clean and dont do everything to improve your situation.

    • I am coming from Eastern Europe, so what? He will never be my champion. I mean, I don’t resonate with his sneaky/dirty tactics.
      I would also blame Thiem , Fed and others for not closing the deal when they had a chance.

  14. I just hope patrick drills this in tsitsipas head n tsitsi is not fooled just like thiem was in the AO final..Djokovic clearly robbed that one away from Thiem. Djokovic maybe having some neck niggle but there is no doubt about the fact that he ways uses injury MTOs to disrupt momentum when he is down n behind .He WILL NEVER be a PEOPLES CHAMPION and this is the very reason that Fed hates him

  15. This guy is going above and beyond with the theatrics.He gets it on camera that he has an issue with his neck and arm during his practice.Comes on the court with a neck patch, gets 40% 1st serve % in the first set because he can’t get the proper ball toss, loses the set.
    Calls the trainer between sets, feels better, wins.
    I saw he lost the set when he had the issue.I saw there was no MTO, only a trainer during change of ends, but let me still cry that PCB obviously lost rythm during the sit-down.
    So, obviously I understand that his niggle/injury had no effect on the outcome, apart from him making tons of UEs and making life difficult for himself, but I as a hater invested so much time into the match.So, let me push the propaganda that he won using a non-existent MTO, helps me sleep at night

    • He said his pain disappeared as match progressed post second set

      What kind of neck pain is this that mysteriously disappears..if we get a catch during sleep too..it stays for a day

      Fake..fake..fake to the core

      • sometimes it can happen I guess. Remember Rafa’s whole body was aching before AO 2009 final but as the match progressed, he started feeling better and better and the adrenalin takes over. Humburg 2008 final against Fed is another example where Rafa came out flat to go down 1-5 and then suddenly regained his energy to win 7-5.

        I do think Novak can exaggerate things but let’s not be silly in claiming there is always nothing wrong with him. He is a very physical player and in tough conditions, these aches and pains do happen and players have to manage.

        Whether he takes MTO’s to disrupt rhythms is something one can only speculate on as only he knows what the intention is.

        • Let me try and make it a bit clearer.

          Novak showed up for the match with tape on his neck so i have to believe that there is/was an issue. My problem is the way he uses it to disrupt the other player’s momentum when things r not going his way. If ure not feeling well enough to play, don’t play! If u show up just play and do the best u can! When Fed or Rafa has an injury and come to play, they just get on with it, most times not even mentioning anything about the issue until after, but u can tell something is wrong. Novak on the other hand just likes to play up the issue…..histrionics some argue!! Its quite annoying for both players and viewers alike!!

  16. I just saw djoko busta highlights..djoko hitting ball very well..very hard..good depth..very solid off baseline…so many drop shots ..strong serving..who can beat him ..I doubt anyone

    I feel the pace of his shots has increased..he is hitting ball harder ..anyone else feel the same ?

  17. Nope, don’t think so. Djoko not playing well to beat PCB but PCB played worse to lose. PCB was so one dimensional, going CC almost all the time, so predictable hence no issue for Djoko.

    But, Djoko will always raise his level when nearing the business end of things, so Tsitsipas has to play at a very high level and sustains that throughout the match if he wants to beat Djoko.

    • Agreed. Tsitsipas probably has to play the best match of his career to win this. He has excellent coaching available and has the weapons to hurt Novak.

      I think his forehand is the best amongst the next gen- I actually think it is the close forehand to Federer’s in the young lot. He can produce plenty of spin off his backhand but his average rally shot on that wing needs to improve. I hope he can serve well too. Honestly, seeing the weather forecast on Sunday it looks like it will be a cold day so I am not really looking forward to Rafa playing Novak in these conditions. I know Rafa also has to defeat a difficult opponent but I am confident he’ll do that.

      • Well if its a windy day, I think it’ll affect Djoko more than Rafa, assuming they both get there.

        But, I do feel that it’ll be a Rafa vs Tsitsipas final on Sunday. I think both of them are playing good to great tennis so far this FO.

        Djoko doesn’t impress (me) with the way he played against Khachanov and then PCB. Khachanov should at least got a set and PCB another set against Djoko, had they had some belief (that they could beat Djoko).

        If Djoko still has his injury issues then all the more Tsitsipas should be able to win.

  18. All I know is that Ivanisevic said Novak is as ready as ever and he favored him over Rafa on Sunday due to conditions. He talked about Novak training, his mindset, his nutrition all being brought to perfection at this RG! Nothing he said indicated any injury scare, so even if Novak was feeling something it was nothing major obviously… His “injury” MTO ,I think, had more to do with losing first set and disrupting PCB rhythm..

  19. Are we going to see Rafa’s mindbogglingly annoying Diego complex tomorrow??
    I will be furious if it rears its insane head yet again..

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