French Open QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Berrettini

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will try to set up their highly-anticipated semifinal showdown when they take the court on Wednesday at Roland Garros. They are going up against Diego Schwartzman and Matteo Berrettini, respectively.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (10) Diego Schwartzman


Nadal and Schwartzman will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers and for the second time in a row at the French Open when they clash in the quarterfinals on Wednesday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at a dominant 10-1 in the Spaniard’s favor, including 5-1 on clay. Nadal avenged a surprising 6-2, 7-5 loss last fall in Rome by cruising 6-3, 6-3, 7-6(0) in the semis at Roland Garros. Those two matches are indicative of how much tougher it is to beat Nadal in Paris compared to other clay-court tournaments. This spring has been no different. Although the King of Clay triumphed in Barcelona and Rome, he also lost in Monte-Carlo and Madrid–and was one point away from losing in Barcelona. So far this fortnight he has not dropped a set in victories over Alexei Popyrin, Richard Gasquet, Cameron Norrie and Jannik Sinner. Nine of the 12 sets have been 6-3 or worse for the opponent.

Schwartzman’s quarterfinal appearance is far more surprising, even though he made a run to the semis in 2020. The 10th-ranked Argentine lost his opening match in a hard-to-believe four of five clay-court warmup events. Nonetheless, he has managed to defeat Yen-Hsun Lu, Aljaz Bedene, Philipp Kohlschreber, and Jan-Lennard Struff–all of whom were unseeded. This is obviously where Schwartzman’s favorable draw ends, and his stay in Paris will likely end in swift fashion. Nothing about his current form or past history against Nadal suggests the underdog can be competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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How many games will Schwartzman win?


(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Matteo Berrettini

Djokovic was one set away from bowing out of the tournament on Monday, but in reality that never came close to happening. The world No. 1 quickly erased a two-set deficit against Lorenzo Musetti, surging ahead 6-7(7), 6-7(2), 6-1, 6-0, 4-0 before the Italian retired. Djokovic had previously been in cruise control this fortnight, completely destroying Tennys Sandgren, Pablo Cuevas, and Ricardas Berankis.

The 34-year old Serb was somewhat all over the place earlier in the clay-court swing, as well, so the question is which Djokovic will show up on Wednesday. The answer, of course, should not be in much doubt. After all, he is an unbelievable 31-4 in his last 35 Grand Slam quarterfinal matches. That is bad news for Berrettini, whose luck (getting a fourth-round walkover from Roger Federer) appears to have run out. The ninth-ranked Italian’s only previous effort against Djokovic also doesn’t bode well; he lost 6-2, 6-1 at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals. Expect Djokovic to answer Monday’s wakeup call and dominate from start to finish.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Berrettini?

36 Comments on French Open QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Berrettini

  1. What did I say about y s Diego complex returning!
    This is really ludicrous.
    He has to get a grip on his mind.
    Come on Rafa!

  2. Arghhh!!….What’s wrong with Rafa huh??..He should play aggressively!…not the other way around!..

    Amy!…u go to RG & k8ck his 8$$ now!…That’s an order! ..

    • He is so nervy mira! It’s painful to watch.
      I agree he should be more aggressive but when he is he makes mistakes.
      The control on his fh has gone again. That’s always the index of how nervous he is.

        • Rafa has clearly had problems with nerves all.season.
          Moya said so!
          I hoped that he had overcome them in Rome but they have returned.
          All tournament he has seemed very nervous to me. One minute terrible, then brilliant. These dramatic sudden changes are clearly mental.

  3. Rafa’s serve is just terrible! Against Schwartzman he’s already in deep trouble; even if he wins this (well he may not, judging at how well Schwartzman plays), he’s going to have even bigger troubles against Djoko or Berretinni.

    I can see that Rafa is already in the decline, not only the serve, but his shots too, mis-hitting so often, giving away cheap points. It’s like he’s running out of ideas how to beat this Schwartzman, hence he’s tense when serving to stay in set two and so lost the set. And, what’s with going CC all the time, and stingy with his FH DTL?

    It’s not looking good for Rafa now, especially when Schwartzman is serving first in the third set.

  4. Schwartzman is good at changing directions and good with DTL shots from both wings. What Rafa should do is not to hit right back at Schwartzman but to hit to the open court and makes Schwartzman runs for the ball, that way there’ll be a better chance for Schwartzman to make mistakes.

    Rafa simply has too much respect for Schwartzman and so plays too conservatively; also, he’s standing too far back behind the baseline, why not move forward and be more aggressive and takes time away from Schwartzman?

  5. Rafa likes to do things the hard way all the time sigh

    I am not watching instead keeping abreast with the score. It’s really no fun watching Rafa play anymore

  6. Mona,

    I am doing the same. For the sake of my health I have to just follow the score, I am recording the match. Rafa is doing it the hard way. It’s not like he doesn’t know what to expect from Diego.

  7. U guys noticedA Rafa’s body language start to change a little bit?A spring in his step?Maybe turning point has arrived??

  8. Well let’s hope so, and he needs to win the fourth with maximin a breadstick. VAMOS, Rafa!! My heart really can’t take it!!!!!

  9. I’ll just have to assume Rafa was feeling generous today and donated his dear friend a set, box’s looking back I can’t c y he lost that set!

  10. Okay let’s have some perspective here. I turned it on in time to see Rafa win the third set. He was shaking his fist! There is no way he is losing this match.

    Let’s remember that Novak was down two sets to Mussetti. He has not looked invincible either. I usually get bad nerves starting with the quarterfinals. But Rafa is ahead. I am hoping that getting through this will help him work through his nerves.

  11. When Rafa serves well he can win the point. And, he hitting his I/O CC FH to the open court works against Schwartzman (see, don’t have to hit right back at your opponent all the time!).

    Why must Rafa play crappy to give his opponent an edge over him, and when his back is against the wall then he produces some brilliant tennis? Why makes things so difficult for himself?

    I know Schwartzman can play well and he’s indeed playing very well in this match, and he knows he has the game to give Rafa problems; but, Rafa after playing so often against him, should come with a proper game plan to counter Schwartzman’s game!

    Rafa simply has too much respect for his opponents, esp those tough ones.

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