French Open QF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Schwartzman

Dominic Thiem is back in the French Open quarterfinals for a fifth consecutive time. But it hasn’t been easy. Or at least it wasn’t on Sunday.

From two sets up, Thiem found himself in a fifth set against little-known French wild card Hugo Gaston before surviving 6-4, 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-3. The U.S. Open champion had previously routed Marin Cilic, Jack Sock, and Jack Sock, but those performances hardly mean anything given his struggles against Gaston. Although it was a high-quality match for the most part, it was not what Thiem needed heading into the business end of the tournament.

“Obviously (the) last weeks were tough,” the world No. 3 admitted. “I’m not running on a full tank anymore; that’s for sure. So I’m trying to do everything to have a great recovery, to have a good day off tomorrow, and then go out on Tuesday as fit as possible. If I’m able to do that, it’s going to be an exciting match.”

That match will come against one of Thiem’s best friends on tour, Diego Schwartzman. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of the Austrian, who has won three of their four previous clay-court encounters. They faced each other twice on the slow stuff last season, when Schwartzman prevailed 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) in Buenos Aires before Thiem cruised 6-3, 5-3 in Barcelona.

Schwartzman returned from the coronavirus hiatus with a trio of disappointing results, but he is suddenly playing the best tennis of his career. The 14th-ranked Argentine finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Rome, stunning Rafael Nadal in the process, and is now through to the Roland Garros quarterfinals for the second time. So far this fortnight Schwartzman has taken out Miomir Kecmanovic, Lorenzo Giustino, Norbert Gombos, and Lorenzo Sonego all in straight sets.

“After [Thiem’s match] I was on the bike stretching,” the 28-year-old said. “After that, Domi arrived and we were kidding, ‘Okay, this is the last time we talk each other until Tuesday.’ He was [motioning] like he was going to hit me in my legs.”

It is Thiem’s legs that could be the issue on Tuesday. With the recent Grand Slam champ running on fumes both mentally and physically, and Schwartzman on fire, an upset could be in the cards.

Pick: Schwartzman in 5

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107 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Schwartzman

  1. Schwarzman in four. Schwarzman will return many balls and will make Thiem runs with him. Thiem looked tired in his R4 match, not sure he’s up to it physically against a much fresher Schwarzman.

  2. Thiem in 4, should play better than he did in his last match. I’m sure that 5 setter took something out of him, but not enough to take him out of the tournament.

  3. thiem in 4. A stronger opponent that you know very well is better than an opponent weaker but that you don’t know. Thiem knows Diego really well, has beaten him in the past so he surely know how to beat him.

  4. Yeah, surely Nadal lost to Diego in Rome because he does not know him well enough.
    If Thiem really struggles physically, he will lose. Coming on clay straight from a lot of matches on hard does not help either.
    Schwartzman in 4 or 5, probably, but really this match could have any outcome under the circumstances.

  5. Schwartzman has the bad habit of getting tense up during crucial moments in matches; but, beating Rafa for the first time on clay at Rome may perhaps help him to have more self belief and overcomes such a weakness.

    I think the outcome of the match will very much depend on how physically fit Thiem is; I think if Thiem is not at 100%, Schwartzman can beat him.

  6. So who is more dangerous for rafa? Thiem is the better player but we have to factor in Rafa’s mindbogglingly annoying Diego complex. But perhaps Rafa has also developed a Thiem complex?! Honestly i feel.like yelling at him sometimes.
    Whomever is the lesser danger I want to win. A long five setter is probably best…Except that Rafa won’t get on court until.midnight…😠😠

    • Amy..you confident of rafa today ?

      Rafa has now a djoko ,fed, thiem( after so) complex n a cautious approach vs Diego n Fabio

        • I don’t like that he has to play late under the roof sanju!
          I think what worries me a bit is simply that when players get older they have more bad days and are less predictable.
          Rafa’s complexes drive me insane! It’s understandable that he developed a Nole complex in 2011, but getting complexes about Diego!and yes I agree he probably now has a Dom complex after AO..is just insane…
          He is way too.respectful of his opponents…

          • It’s beyond me why they scheduled him last .he is defending champion..a part of me thinks they don’t want him to win

  7. I have Diego winning this one, especially after hearing what Thiem had to say after his last win. He looked mentally tired and this is what he had to say:

    “I’m happy of course to face one of my best friends from the Tour in the quarter-finals,” said Thiem. “From my perspective, it’s all about recovery. I mean, obviously [the] past weeks were tough. I’m not running on a full tank anymore.”

    On another note, this is what Nole had to say about the bounce once the roof is closed in the evening:

    Novak Djokovic ball toss
    October 6, 2020Novak Djokovic, Roland Garros, Tennis News
    ‘There is literally no bounce’ – Novak Djokovic adds to criticisms of Roland Garros conditions
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    Novak Djokovic has criticised the conditions at Roland Garros, saying there is ‘literally no bounce’ in the pitch when the roof closed.

    French Open officials spend millions building a new roof on Court Philippe Chatrier over the last year with the 2020 tournament the first time it has been in use.

    However, the cooler conditions and possibly the heavier balls are all combining to make it very challenging for players, including the best in the world.
    “If you play later in the day with the roof closed, there’s literally no bounce at all so he could pick up the ball on the rise from the backhand corner,” Djokovic explained after he beat Karen Khachanov 6-4, 6-3, 6-3.

    NOT GOOD

    • Rubbish conditions then. Ones which will really help players like Sinner and work.against those with spin like Rafa and Dom who are natural clay courters! It’s a clay tournament ffs! Use a suitable ball to play on the surface! You shouldn’t have a ball which hampers/ hinders those who are expert on the surface.
      What would people say if you suddenly had completely different conditions on a hard court?! That would be different of course!😠😠

  8. Y should fitness be an issue for Theim after a days rest? I remember the days when Rafa had to play 2 matches in ONE day and he would still win the whole tournament! Cmon!!!! Theim must win this in at most 4!!!

    • Sorry but none of these guys are beating Rafa!!! Theim esp does not look particularly convincing, and these long grueling rallies will be his own undoing!!

      • From your moth to God’s ears mona! It’s sinner he has to beat today! At this rate he won’t be on court until.10 Paris time.

          • Rafa has played under all conditions in this tourney and it has not hampered his results yet! He’ll adapt! That’s what he does! Have no fear Amy. lol!

          • Rafa has played under all conditions in this tourney and it has not hampered his results yet! He’ll adapt! That’s what he does! Have no fear Amy, lol!

          • Agree with MonaLisa. Neither of these two is beating Rafa, at this rate.

            Amy, Rafa’s match is on at the right time for me to be home. Hope you are here. I must go now tho! Just wanted to see how these two were looking.

    • Did Thiem ever test positive for COVID at some point earlier this year?

      Not seeing Thiem’s sharpness today. Needs to serve this game out with 2 aces right now – if possible.

  9. Rafa has adapted really well. I don’t think he’s losing to Sinner or Thiem/Diego. THe only problem is Djokovic is that match does take place.

      • You never know Sanju. PCB will give him a fight but the only one with a realistic chance is Tsitsipas if he continues to raise his level.

    • Thanks, VR! We need the encouragement.

      Has this tournament been kind of depressing? Maybe it’s just that I don’t like fall RG!! Or covid tennis. I don’t even want to watch it.

  10. I do think Thiem tends to respond well when things get really bad lately, anyway. He’s always pretty much collapsed against Nadal.

    Courier pointing out that Thiem’s hit a lot more sliced backhands today vs his topspin bh. Says it’s to save energy. Odd choice since the slice is mainly effective against tall and/or powerful players and Schwartzman isn’t either of those.

  11. Diego is like a pit bull. He is just getting back everything Thiem throws at him. Nobody can win this game. It’s crucial because if Thiem breaks he can serve for the set.

  12. Thiem is playing awfully today. Hit a heap of bad drop shots (against Diego, of all people) and keeps using that godawful BH slice time and time again.

  13. According to the commentators this match is an amazing level and bewilderingly brilliant!!
    It’s certainly bewildering with the hyperbole..

  14. VR,

    I am hanging in there with this pandemic. It’s been difficult. Everything has been turned upside down. Then there is the political situation in the states. I just hope we can survive the insanity of Trump as he is incapable of dealing with the virus.

    It’s good to see tennis again, but it’s not the same. I think they should have waited until there was a vaccine. I miss the crowd.

    Rafa is not match ready and that concerns me.

    Great to see you here! 😀

    • They should have started playing already. Same with Wimby, very stupid. They have to be more flexible. People who want to see the other match, just get up and go to that court.

  15. The scheduling is atrocious. There is supposed to be a woman’s match played after this one. So when is Rafa going to play?

    • Got home in time to see Diego win. Glad I missed it. Dominic looked as bad as he probably ever looks. Diego, Yay, good for him!

      I’ll just wander over to the WTAA page and talk to myself until time for Rafa. I like Swiatek very much. Don’t know the other player at all – never seen her – Martina Trevisan.

    • Fat chance, the women mostly play 3 lately. Let’s hope Rafa doesn’t have to go 5.

      Thiem must have finally run out of energy in the 5th. Wasn’t sure he could be run dry. Ah, well, quick turnaround from USO plus a really nasty draw did it.

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