French Open QF preview and prediction: Goffin vs. Thiem

Outside of a rare quarterfinal showdown between two title favorites, such as Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal last year at Roland Garros, you will never find a matchup at this stage of a major with higher stakes. That is what awaits David Goffin and Dominic Thiem on Thursday.

David Goffin and Dominic Thiem will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers and in a second consecutive Grand Slam when they battle for a spot in the French Open semifinals on Wednesday.

Goffin is leading the head-to-head series 4-2, but he is a borderline dominant 4-1 in completed matches because one of Thiem’s victories came via a first-set retirement last year in Marseille. The two rising stars have split their two previous clay-court encounters; Goffin prevailed 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 in the 2014 Kitzbuhel final before Thiem triumphed 7-5, 6-2 last summer in Gstaad–also in a title match. At the Australian Open earlier this season, Goffin got the job done 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-5 during third-round action.

A quarterfinal contest is much more appropriate for a showdown between players of this caliber. After all, both Goffin and Thiem would be in the World Tour Finals if the year-end championship began today.

Goffin has been in particularly outstanding form since the 2016 calendar turned to March. Having previously never reached the semifinals at a Masters 1000 event, the 13th-ranked Belgian accomplished that feat at back-to-back tour stops in Indian Wells and Miami. After showing signs of fatigue to begin the clay-court swing, Goffin got back on track in Rome by famously humiliating Tomas Berdych 6-0, 6-0 en route to the quarters. He is now through to his first major quarterfinal thanks to defeats this fortnight of Gregoire Barrere, Carlos Berlocq, Nicolas Almagro (in five sets), and Ernests Gulbis.
Goffin wins
Only Novak Djokovic boasts more wins than Thiem this year. The world No. 15 is an unbelievable 40-10 following victories in Paris at the expense of Inigo Cervantes, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Alexander Zverev, and Marcel Granollers. He has become one of the obvious beneficiaries of Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, as Thiem had been on course to meet the nine-time Roland Garros champion in round four.

But what’s to say Thiem vs. Nadal would have spelled certain doom for the 22-year-old? His clay-court exploits in 2016 include two titles, one of which featured a semifinal victory over Nadal in Buenos Aires. Thiem also lifted the trophy two weeks ago in Nice, so he rode a wave of momentum into Paris that has apparently trumped any possible fatigue.
Thiem 1
“Very special,” the 13th seed said of playing against Goffin the quarterfinals. “We practice a lot together, because it’s always really good and really tough practices with him. And also (he is a) very nice guy; (we) hang around a little bit outside the court. I think it’s gonna be a very interesting and very nice match to watch.”

It is also one with incredible stakes. The winner, of course, will be in a major semifinal for the first time in his career–heck, neither one had ever previously advanced to a quarterfinal. Additionally, the winner will reach the top 10 for the first time ever next week; the loser, for the moment, will be No. 11.

Although clay favors Thiem, Goffin has slightly more experience at 25 years old and he will be confident in the knowledge that he has matched up well with the Austrian in previous head-to-head contests. Goffin’s ball-striking has arguably been better and more consistent than anyone outside of Djokovic this fortnight and that should carry him through what will likely be a memorable quarterfinal.

Pick: Goffin in 5

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75 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Goffin vs. Thiem

  1. I’ll probably be a little sad if it doesn’t go 5 sets. Doesn’t matter which one wins, for me. This is a great result for both Love. If I have to choose — it’s Goffin in 5.

  2. This is the match of the day and I’m gutted as ill be working. Will follow updates on flashscore. I really think if Thiem puts his mind to it and keeps the errors to a minimum. He can win it. Has the firepower to hit through Goffins defense

  3. I just cant wait… Agree that it will be epic and I want Thiem to pull out the win because he is a better matchup for Novak in the semis… Imo

  4. Better match for the spectacle as a whole rather than Novak crushing Goffin 6-2 6-1 6-2… Thiem would be exactly what Novak needs before a replay of last years final happens

  5. Been riding him since the beginning. Thiem in 5. Best Match of Roland Garros might be this Quarterfinal battle

    • Hey that’s good news!

      I think Murray is going to beat Stan. It’s just a gut feeling I have. I think that Murray can take Stan out of his game the way Rafa has done do many times. The last time Rafa played Stan he was able to counter his power game very effectively. I thought it was a clinic.

      Murray has the weapons to diffuse stan’s power. He has that backhand, a really solid forehand, great movement and defense, a great first serve and a strong ROS. Murray is also capable of playing very aggressive tennis. He does take the ROS early, putting pressure on his opponent.

      However, Stan is no slouch. He’s got his own brilliant one handed backhand, powerful groundstrokes, and a great serve of his own.

      I hope we see a match that lives up to expectations. I also hope that the weather doesn’t interfere.

      • Poignant memories for Rafa. It was on his 19th birthday 11 years ago he beat Federer in the Semi Final and went on to win his first Slam and the first of nine RG crowns. I was there and have been in love with him ever since.

    • @ hawks 9:45 PM,

      that would be a nice birthday present from Andy…the semis will take place on Rafa’s birthday…so sad Rafa will not celebrate it in Paris this time…

  6. I wish Thiem could win in straights…but Goffin does not go away easily and will wear down poor Dominic…

    I still think Thiem is NID for the win…he certainly has got a game on clay…the only obstacle is his young inexperienced head…

  7. Goffin is playing well. Thiem fighting hard, has broken Goffin several times but keeps handing it back in the next game.

  8. The indefensible French crowd should be ashamed.

    No other slam would have such a small crowd for a semi.

    RT @PauFerragut: #Goffin y #Thiem derrochando talento en la Lenglen. Entrada de público pobrísima e impropia de unos cuartos de #RG16 https://t.co/oNQzwp42R9

    #EmptySeats

  9. THAT POINT WAS INSANE!! I just turned on the TV but when I was kind of stirring and waking up earlier I faintly saw on my phone 6-4 4-3 ad Goffin break point. Was he up 5-3 this set? Gosh I wish I had woken up earlier but now I’m gonna watch the rest of this. Just these last few games have had a lot of great points.

    • Correction: Thiem crushing 100 mph forehand like its nothing and wins the set. This is ball bashing at its best from the Austrian.

  10. Yup. Sad for Goffin – thinking about his missed opportunity to be inside top 10. Very happy for Thiem, tho. Appears he’s cruising now…

  11. Thiem is really powerful off both wings

    Looks like this may get over in 4

    Thiem can trouble Djokovic with this game. I don’t expect him to beat him but it can be a 3 to 3.5 hour long match

  12. Dang. Thiem from 2-4 down in the fourth wins nine straight games. Why couldn’t they show that lol. I just pulled up the last game on my phone on TC Plus and Thiem is continuously obliterating the ball.

  13. Agree that Thiem will likely be a better match v Nole. Can’t wait!! They played in Miami. I think Thiem was overplayed at the time — and he started off Euro clay season a bit slow. Kudos Dominic making the semi!

    Goffin will exact his revenge at a later date ?

  14. So now my order of preference for title is:

    1. Thiem
    2. Murray
    3. Nole/CB (won’t know until the match starts)

      • Could be the same for me but I won’t know until it starts.

        I’d like to say I’d want Nole to win in that match-up, but can’t say for sure.

        Regardless, I’ll be happy for Nole if he manages to not only get his elusive career slam, but also do what no man has done since Laver and hold all four slams at the same time (which none of the Federazzi media has even mentioned BTW).

  15. congrats to me…as I said Thiem’s win was NID…

    hope the kid can make the match against Nole competitive and worth watching…

  16. Stuart Fraser ‏@stu_fraser 2m2 minutes ago
    The two players with the most wins on tour this year will take on each other in the semis:

    Novak Djokovic – 42
    Dominic Thiem – 41

  17. Simon Cambers ‏@scambers73 1h1 hour ago
    I’ve been saying it for a while but @ThiemDomi is the real deal. Really looking forward to his semi-final against @DjokerNole

    #RealDeal

  18. What is order of play tomorrow. Both women’s and men’s semis have to be played. Who is playing on chartier..I bet Murray stan

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