French Open QF preview and prediction: Goffin vs. Thiem

Outside of a rare quarterfinal showdown between two title favorites, such as Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal last year at Roland Garros, you will never find a matchup at this stage of a major with higher stakes. That is what awaits David Goffin and Dominic Thiem on Thursday.

David Goffin and Dominic Thiem will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers and in a second consecutive Grand Slam when they battle for a spot in the French Open semifinals on Wednesday.

Goffin is leading the head-to-head series 4-2, but he is a borderline dominant 4-1 in completed matches because one of Thiem’s victories came via a first-set retirement last year in Marseille. The two rising stars have split their two previous clay-court encounters; Goffin prevailed 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 in the 2014 Kitzbuhel final before Thiem triumphed 7-5, 6-2 last summer in Gstaad–also in a title match. At the Australian Open earlier this season, Goffin got the job done 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-5 during third-round action.

A quarterfinal contest is much more appropriate for a showdown between players of this caliber. After all, both Goffin and Thiem would be in the World Tour Finals if the year-end championship began today.

Goffin has been in particularly outstanding form since the 2016 calendar turned to March. Having previously never reached the semifinals at a Masters 1000 event, the 13th-ranked Belgian accomplished that feat at back-to-back tour stops in Indian Wells and Miami. After showing signs of fatigue to begin the clay-court swing, Goffin got back on track in Rome by famously humiliating Tomas Berdych 6-0, 6-0 en route to the quarters. He is now through to his first major quarterfinal thanks to defeats this fortnight of Gregoire Barrere, Carlos Berlocq, Nicolas Almagro (in five sets), and Ernests Gulbis.

Only Novak Djokovic boasts more wins than Thiem this year. The world No. 15 is an unbelievable 40-10 following victories in Paris at the expense of Inigo Cervantes, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Alexander Zverev, and Marcel Granollers. He has become one of the obvious beneficiaries of Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, as Thiem had been on course to meet the nine-time Roland Garros champion in round four.

But what’s to say Thiem vs. Nadal would have spelled certain doom for the 22-year-old? His clay-court exploits in 2016 include two titles, one of which featured a semifinal victory over Nadal in Buenos Aires. Thiem also lifted the trophy two weeks ago in Nice, so he rode a wave of momentum into Paris that has apparently trumped any possible fatigue.

“Very special,” the 13th seed said of playing against Goffin the quarterfinals. “We practice a lot together, because it’s always really good and really tough practices with him. And also (he is a) very nice guy; (we) hang around a little bit outside the court. I think it’s gonna be a very interesting and very nice match to watch.”

It is also one with incredible stakes. The winner, of course, will be in a major semifinal for the first time in his career–heck, neither one had ever previously advanced to a quarterfinal. Additionally, the winner will reach the top 10 for the first time ever next week; the loser, for the moment, will be No. 11.

Although clay favors Thiem, Goffin has slightly more experience at 25 years old and he will be confident in the knowledge that he has matched up well with the Austrian in previous head-to-head contests. Goffin’s ball-striking has arguably been better and more consistent than anyone outside of Djokovic this fortnight and that should carry him through what will likely be a memorable quarterfinal.

Pick: Goffin in 5

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