French Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Londero, Federer vs. Mayer

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will continue their French Open campaigns during fourth-round action on Sunday, both against Argentines. Nadal awaits an in-form Juan Ignacio Londero, while Federer faces Leonardo Mayer.

Juan Ignacio Londero vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Londero will be Nadal’s third opponent outside of the top 70 in the first four rounds of the French Open when they square off on Sunday. The 11-time champion made mincemeat out of little-known qualifiers Yannick Hanfmann and Yannick Maden before having a tougher time with David Goffin during a 6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 victory. On the heels of a disappointing start to the clay-court season but not an entirely alarming one given his knee issues in March, Nadal is 8-0 in his last eight matches with only two sets lost and 10 sets won by either a 6-0 or 6-1 scoreline.

At 25 years old, Londero is just now emerging on the scene. The Argentine had never won a single ATP-level match prior to 2019 but has now picked up 13 such victories, surging to No. 78 in the world and soon to be in the top 60. Londero made mostly routine work of Nikoloz Basilashvili and Richard Gasquet before outlasting French wild card Corentin Moutet 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 in a wild atmosphere on Friday evening. The recent Cordoba winner is clearly an emerging force on clay, but he will be fatigued both mentally and physically and he now heads to an unprecedented stage.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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Leonardo Mayer vs. (3) Roger Federer

Federer and Mayer will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers on Sunday. Although Federer has won all three of their previous meetings, one was especially memorable. In their first-ever encounter at the 2014 Shanghai Masters, the Swiss saved five match points before prevailing 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(7). He has since defeated Mayer 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 at the 2015 U.S. Open and 6-1, 7-6(6) at last summer’s Cincinnati Masters.

An all-37-year-old matchup could have been in the cards, but Mayer ended Nicolas Mahut’s run via a 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-4, 7-6(3) decision on Friday. The 68th-ranked Argentine preceded that result by beating Jiri Vesely in straight sets and Diego Schwartzman in four. Federer has not dropped a set while ousting Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, and Casper Ruud. The 2009 champion’s clay-court form is looking good in his return to the surface for the first time since 2016, and he will likely cruise once again as a heavy favorite over another unseeded opponent.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 11-14 games

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60 Comments on French Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Londero, Federer vs. Mayer

  1. Apparently Mayer has an injury so that match should be very one sided.
    Hope Ricky does a match preview for Tstisi and Stan. That should be a great match! Dunno who will win…

    • Wawrinka should have too much firepower.Thats a bad matchup for Tsitsipas imo because they have similar styles but Wawrinka has greater shot making capabilities. It’s a similar matchup to Dimitrov.

      • Tsitsipas and Stan don’t have similar styles! Tsitsipas is more like Fed, playing an all court game whilst Stan’s is more a baseline game, just like Thiem’s and Dimi’s, with occasional ventures to the net.

        Stan at his best > Tsitsipas at current level; Stan is almost back to his best so he may win this match, in four sets maybe. Tsitsipas’s level seemed to fluctuate from set to set, sometimes it’s either his carelessness or indecision; losing serves and then had to fight hard to make comebacks.

        I sometimes feel that Tsitsipas was a bit arrogant, only bringing his best when facing Fed, Rafa and Djoko. He should’ve finished off Krajinovic in three sets, when Krajinovic wasn’t physically fresh after his five sets match in the previous round, yet Tsitsipas lost the third set in a TB and barely beat Krajinovic in the fourth set TB.

  2. Ricky..how is tsitsi wawrinka scheduled for Monday .they will play on Monday n then face fed on Tuesday is it .this is so unfair..or is the qf on Wednesday

  3. I haven’t seen Londero play, so don’t know anything about him. I hope he can give Rafa a challenge. I hope Fed can win in straights, but I think it’s more likely that he drops a set in this one. Mayer has played him tough in the past and has the game to trouble Fed. I’d say Roger in 4.

  4. So far, Rafa has played 2 qualifiers and the #27 seed, a former world #7, Goffin. Federer has played #74, a lucky loser and #63. Yet Ricky has to point out that:

    “Londero will be Nadal’s third opponent outside of the top 70 in the first four rounds of the French Open when they square off on Sunday.”

      • So the highest ranked player Fedr will play up to the 4th round is #63 and in Rafa’s case it will be the #27 seed.

    • It’s weird. Goffin is the closest to a top player any of the Big Three will have played through the 4th round. I look at the OOP and go “who?” Lol, even as I post this Navatilova is going through the women’s draw and saying there’s so many players there that she’s never even SEEN play. The men’s draw is actually orderly so far with the top 10 seeds still alive.

    • Nadline let’s just put it this way! Novak, Roger nor Rafa have played anyone of note to date, except for Rafa who has played Goffin!! All of them have had a bye to the quarters as far as I’m concerned! If nether of the top 3 don’t make it to the finals it would be a tragic shame bcos the draw guaranteed it to be!

      This is the first RG where the top 3 got a walk over to the quarters!! I have never heard of any of the players that either of them have played thus far save for Goffin and Mayer!! Their draws are a joke!

  5. The way Federer is just running through draw..I wonder if both Rafa n fed reach semis .is there something for Rafa to worry about. I mean roger has beaten him last 4 times n roger is underdog here..so can go all out n play freely

  6. I don’t think Federer played all that well today, but it was hard to tell as Mayer never provided much of a challenge. The Argentine may have been injured although I didn’t notice any signs of physical issues, just body language that suggested he didn’t really believe in himself. Fed looked a lot more focussed against Ruud, here he just seemed to cruise along as if he was never too worried about Mayer, was generally happy enough to have a break of serve and go from there.

    Hopefully he’ll come out looking focused for the next one, as either Wawrinka or Tsitsipas will be a much greater challenge than anyone he’s played so far.

  7. Rafa not looking his usual ruthless self. Some ordinary errors. Still is leading the match though but looks like a matter of time before londero gets a break

    • What’s wrong with him?
      I only have coverage of Tsitsi -Stan so can’t see.
      He ought to be destroying his opponent! Worried now😕😕

      • Looks flat out there. Could be the heat. A more zoned opponent would have taken it to him. Movement seems ok though. Just not that great on defense today

  8. Nole wasn’t wildly convincing for a large part of the match against Caruso so not sure it is that meaningful ie evidently Nole would have played better against a more dangerous opponent.

    • Djoko was affected by the heat I think. It’s getting hotter out there, hence he’s playing poorly by his standard. His R4 match will be played in the heat, against a big server Struff. I think Struff will give him some problems in the hot conditions, but Djoko should win in the end, maybe losing a set.

  9. The heat and the wind is not helping these players. Rafa’s serve is vulnerable in windy conditions whilst his opponent has a better serve so not much affected by the wind.

    The guy is hitting as hard as possible whilst Rafa is on the defence most of the time. It looks like Rafa will be broken again in the third set and his opponent levelling the set at 4-4. It could have been 5-1 by now but Rafa made hard work of it as usual.

    If Rafa is not going to improve his serve, he’ll have a hard time winning the trophy here. Fed has such a great serve and he’s hardly broken; only one set went to TB for Fed so far.

    • Oh ye of little faith! Go check the match stats. Rafa’s serve was fine. The bottom line is fine. The Rafa Nadal fansite has a little article about Rafa having gone back to his old serve for the clay season.

      Rafa served very well and at high speed v Goffin, presumably because he respects Goffin’s return a lot more than Londero’s.

      • Read again, I said Rafa’s serve was vulnerable in windy conditions. Today’s match was played in windy conditions, hence he got broken in set three for no apparent reasons, just some bad serving. His second serve esp was vulnerable hence Londero capitalized on that. He almost got broken a second time in set three. He can’t afford that playing against better players in the later rounds.

  10. Amy..lucky. I’m very much fearing fed if he plays Rafa..fed has no mental block now Vs Rafa n has won the last 4 (albeit none on clay )

    • Fed may not make it there sanju! I feel worried that apparently Rafa didn’t play well today. I only have coverage of Stan and Stefano so couldn’t watch. It was incredibly hot so maybe that affected him.
      What is worrying me is that there is a lot of rain forecast for next week😢😢

      • Weather matters the most on Sunday ( assuming Nadal is a fair guarantee to get there). It says cloudy but I have seen it in the past and I am hoping it gets all sunny and dry. Any less yeah would worry me more so if Djokovic is on the other side. I hope Thiem takes care of him and does Nadal a favour. 🙂

      • Seeing this match going to 5 hrs..fed will easily win his qf..Stan is old now .will not have anything left in tank..tsitsi is younger but erratic..5 out of 25 bps

        • There is a two days rest for the winner. Tsitsi would be raring to go…he enjoys challenges. I think I would fancy his chanes against Fed if he comes through today.

          • Yes, you are right, QF are scheduled for Tuesday. That way if this match prolongs, Fed definitely has an advantage. If this match prolongs, next match might not get completed as well.

      • Rafa played ok considering the windy conditions out there, and against someone he knew little of.

        What I’m not happy about is that he again had lapses leading to loss of serve in set three and almost lost his serve again that could let his opponent level it in set three. Other than that, other areas of his game were all going well.

        I think he shouldn’t have problem in the QF against Kei or Paire; assuming he gets to the SF, it will be tougher as Fed is serving very well, his serve only broken once if I’m not wrong; and Stan is playing his best tennis at the moment though he may be tired after the Long matches that he has.

  11. I see people saying that Rafa didn’t play well today. How could he have played poorly if he only lost 8 games? I mean, I understand that he was playing a relative nobody, but c’mon…

      • I just checked the match stats and going on that, Rafa played damn near perfectly! High first serve percentage. High percentage of first and second serve points. Went 50% on break points (6-12). And had FORTY winners to twenty-five UE. Everything about those stats suggests a very aggressive and dominant performance by Rafa. Certainly makes me happy for him that he had stats like that!

          • Why were you freaking out? Rafa had already won two sets and he lost serve in the third. I was commenting on his serve at that point; why felt so insecure, I mean, you think Rafa would lose to a nobody after being two sets to zero up?

            I was commenting about his serve in windy conditions, if he’s playing against a top player in those windy conditions, his serve would be a problem for him. His second serve especially, when it’s so returnable compared to his first. He has to serve well his first deliveries, to avoid serving his more vulnerable second deliveries. There’s no guarantee that the later rounds won’t be played in windy conditions.

          • Wait. Werent you being worried something was wrong about him and he is not having it easy and destroying his opponent and not at his best. So Nope Lucky wasnt the only one that was freaking us out 🙂

            In the short time I have been here, Lucky has been one of the most optimistic about Nadal’s chances in every match. But I guess you are like me, We just want him to win without any drama which in the last few years, we havent been short of.

            There are always mid match crisis where either his own level falls a bit or his opponent goes for big crazy shots and rattles him. I hope Nadal finds a way in every match and wins his 12th. and You can have all the vodka you want 🙂

    • The problem is not the scoreline. Its with him losing serve after a cruising through the first two sets. Any other opponent and more importantly Djokovic would crush him for weaker serve games and the least sign of nerves. Rafa’s strength used to be he plays his best with his back against the wall. But he cannot afford to do that anymore when he has a player who has a mental edge over him.

      For all I know, I dont think the Fed match is going to be easy.

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