French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Wawrinka vs. Dimitrov

After hammering two little-known wild cards, Rafael Nadal will see his competition level ratchet up in a major way when David Goffin comes calling on Friday at Roland Garros. Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov are also in action.

(27) David Goffin vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Goffin will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers when they clash in round three of the French Open on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-1 in favor of Nadal, who is a perfect 3-0 at Goffin’s expense on clay. Only against a hobbled opponent has the Belgian ever come out on top, which happened during round-robin action at the 2017 Nitto ATP Finals via a 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 decision. Nadal promptly withdrew from that event citing a knee injury. They most recently faced each other last spring in Barcelona, where the Spaniard cruised 6-4, 6-0.

Goffin is not the easiest of third-round adversaries; he would normally run into a top player in the second week of slam, but physical problems and a bit of a slump have left him at No. 29 in the world. Although the 28-year-old is a modest 12-12 for the season, he appears to be turning things around with a fourth-round performance in Miami, a semifinal showing in Estoril, and a win over Stan Wawrinka in Rome. Nadal picked up a confidence-boosting title in Rome and so far at Roland Garros he has trounced qualifiers Yannick Hanfmann and Yannick Maden. None of those results bode well for Goffin, who will at least make the 11-time champion work but is unlikely to wield enough firepower to steal a set.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(24) Stan Wawrinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov

It is not often that a third-round result can be considered somewhat of a success for both Wawrinka and Dimitrov, but that is arguably the case–especially for Dimitrov–heading into Friday’s showdown. The 28-year-old Bulgarian has slumped to 46th in the rankings, thus relegating him to unseeded status for the season’s second slam. After holding off Janko Tipsarevic 6-3, 6-0, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, he had to go up against No. 11 seed Marin Cilic in round two and prevailed 6-7(3), 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-3.

Wawrinka was expected to make it this far as the 24th seed, but he faced a red-hot Christian Garin on Wednesday so it looked like a tough one may be in the cards. Instead, the 2015 Roland Garros champion destroyed the up-and-coming Chilean 6-1, 6-4, 6-0. He preceded that result with a 6-1, 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-3 defeat of Jozef Kovalik. Wawrinka has won two in a row against Dimitrov to pull even in the head-to-head series at 4-4, and he has every reason to make it three straight. Dimitrov will not be helped by the fact that he already has 10 sets of tennis in his legs and was showing signs of a shoulder issue against Cilic.

Pick: Wawrinka in 3

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12 Comments on French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Wawrinka vs. Dimitrov

    • Thanks Freddy. We do have a couple of Fed fans here but they don’t normally post during his matches. Focusing, I guess. Come to think of it I don’t post during Rafa’s matches.

  1. I had to leave right before the end of the third set. Rafa did one of his walkabouts and Goffin started to look like his old self. I never thought Rafa would lose a set, but he has been having it too easy and having little mental lapses. The old Goffin could have made a real match out of it. But he was still never going to beat Rafa.

    I was following the score online after I had to leave. Once I saw Rafa was up a break I felt better. Itā€™s hard on the nerves, but Rafa needs to be pushed a little. That is how he raises his level of play.

  2. I didnā€™t see anything too concerning about Rafaā€™s match today. While I was surprised that Goffin was able to get a set, I see it as nothing more than Rafa taking one of those little mid-match ā€œwalkaboutsā€ that we see him take from time to time. If anything, I think it could be good for him to have faced a little bit of resistance. I find it very hard to imagine Rafa taking any sort of walkabout against guys like Tsitsipas, Fed, Novak, Thiem, etc., especially now that heā€™s gotten a little wake-up call from Goffin. But again, while I understand that some of you got a bit nervous for a minute there, to me it was NID that Rafa would be just fine in the 4th. I think weā€™ve become so used to Rafa, Novak, and Fed cruising in the earlier rounds at the majors that the moment they drop a set it feels like something is wrong. But everything is still 100% fine with Rafa, imo. He just maybe let up a little bit for a brief time against a former Top-10 player.

  3. The ATP is commemorating the historic win of Soderling over Rafa 10 years ago today at RG. Rafa is such a phenomenon, they see that loss as one of the wonders in sporting history.

    “Although the Swede’s triumph resonated then, too, it is perhaps even more impressive today. After beating Belgian David Goffin Friday, Nadal has won 68 of his 69 matches at Roland Garros since that loss to Soderling. The 32-year-old has also added seven Coupe des Mousquetaires to his trophy cabinet, making 11 total at the clay-court Grand Slam.”

    https://www.atptour.com/en/news/soderling-shocks-nadal-10-year-anniversary-roland-garros

  4. Here People, I’m here!

    I was there today! Rafa started very well, Goffin had no answers, Rafa had him stunned. Until Rafa went on a walk abouts for no apparent reason, he lowered his intensity and Goffin got an opening! Otherwise that should have really been sealed in str8t sets!!! Rafa probably needed that anyway!

    It was a fun match, and I had a fun day! Nikishori also had to fight for the win, don’t know why though! It was a good match any way.

    Stan and Dimi return tomorrow…i would hate that if I were Dimi!

    Tsitsipas seems to be a little scratchy although he should win his match in 3! Some good matches today, looking forward to the quarters. I am not sure who I’ll be watching until the schedule comes out!

    Vamos Rafa! Continue on the up and up.

  5. I donā€™t understand the DFs – five or six of them, too many I feel. I noticed that Rafa kept looking at the shot clock when heā€™s serving; and once heā€™s getting close to the 25 Sec limit, he tend to miss the first serve and then had to serve a second and that gave Goffin opportunities to pounce on them. When he served confidently his first serve, he could serve an ace DTT or out wide.

    I feel Moya has to help Rafa to overcome this serving within the time limit issue; if not the DFs would be there and worse still, may happen at tense or crucial moments. As Rafa is older now and not as quick as before, the serve becomes more important for him to win points quickly and cuts down on the running.

    Rafa tends to have lapses during matches, heā€™s fortunate that his previous round opponent wasnā€™t as good as Goffin, if not who knows, he might have lost a set already in the second round. Itā€™s just one break of serve in this match but that cost him a set, so Rafa really has to be careful and serves well to hold his own serve even when his opponent raises his game and goes for broke (which was what Goffin did in set three).

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