Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the French Open final on Sunday afternoon.
Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 6-1 on clay and 1-0 at Roland Garros. Wawrinka, however, has won three of their last six meetings and he got the best of their only previous Grand Slam title match via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision at the 2014 Australian Open. The two veterans have not faced each other since last spring, when Nadal cruised through a Monte-Carlo quarterfinal encounter 6-1, 6-4.
The fourth-ranked Spaniard triumphed at Monte-Carlo two months ago for his 10th title there, accomplished the same feat in Barcelona, and he is now bidding for No. 10 on the red clay of Paris. He also triumphed in Madrid. All of that has a resulted in a 23-1 clay-court record in 2017, with his lone blemish coming against Dominic Thiem in the Rome quarterfinals. Nadal avenged that defeat without any trouble on Friday, clobbering the 23-year-old Austrian 6-3, 6-4, 6-0. He preceded that victory by taking out Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta all without dropping a single set.
Three of the four semifinalists were perfect in total sets this fortnight prior to Friday: Nadal, Thiem, and Wawrinka. The third-ranked Swiss rolled over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic before running into serious trouble against Andy Murray. Wawrinka came within four points of a four-set defeat but eventually survived the longest match of the tournament to date 6-7(6), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-1 in four hours and 34 minutes. Less than three weeks ago he was just 16-8 overall in 2017, but he is now in the midst of a 10-match winning streak that also includes a clay-court title in Geneva.
“Stan won the last event in Geneva and now he’s in the final here,” Nadal commented. “So he’s [on] a good run. He’s in the final. So it’s the toughest opponent possible here.”
“I think to play Rafa on clay in French Open in a final is probably the biggest challenge you can have in tennis,” Wawrinka countered. “He’s the best player ever on clay. It’s for sure gonna be really difficult. But [at] the end of the day, it’s the final; the pressure is on both players. No one goes on the court thinking he has no pressure. We both want to win the title.”
The 32-year-old has apparently never felt such pressure, as he as a perfect 3-0 lifetime in major finals (2014 Australian Open, 2015 French Open, 2016 U.S. Open). But Nadal also has plenty of numbers going for him: he is 78-2 lifetime at the French Open with nine titles.
“Nine actually is my favorite number,” Nadal admitted after the semis. “But don’t get me wrong–I would prefer 10 over nine, no doubt.”
His preference will likely become reality on Sunday. The former world No. 1 bas been dominant at Roland Garros for more than a decade, has dominated this entire clay-court swing aside from one energy-deprived loss, and is extremely well-rested have lost a mere 29 games this whole tournament.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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WWW?
Agree with Ricky, Rafa in 3.
Nadal in 3
Nadal will make Wawa hit the extra ball. Unlike on hardcourt, Wawa can’t hit the winner, Nadal will dig in on defense and Wawa will feel rushed too often and go for too much. If Wawa stays patient, Nadal will be able to dictate terms with the forehand. Unfortunately, it’s an unbeatable recipe even if Wawa plays lights out tennis.
Rafa in 4. Wawa is unbeaten in a grand slam final and is not intimidated by Nadal so I expect this to be closer than many anticipate but Nadal will always be in control. I also think Murray played Wawa into peak form physically and mentally.
Jim, I disagree that Stan can’t hit the winner on clay. He absolutely can, off both wings but particularly the FH. It’s not easy, obviously. But that’s basically what he did against Novak two years ago, who was not an inferior defender to Rafa or Murray today (if anything, the biggest difference amongst those three is that Rafa has a big weapon that the other two lack).
IMO, Stan’s only chance is to go big early and often. Of course he’ll miss some and Rafa will make him hit plenty of extra balls. But the moment he gives up on trying to win by firing winners, he’s lost. He cannot out-rally Nadal and has no other way to beat him on clay. Everyone knows that Rafa is vulnerable to bit hitters. True, Soderling is the only one to exploit the vulnerability at RG, but Stan’s best is better than Soderling’s. It can be done if Stan can bring his best.
I’m not sure Stan’s best is better than Sod’s! Sod had the misfortune of facing Fedal when they’re still in their peak or prime; whilst Stan in his late 20s had a Fed who’s no longer at his prime and a Rafa who suffered more and more from injuries.
Sod made two FO finals B2B only to lose to Fedal; reached at least the QF at Wimbledon and USO to be blocked by either Fed or Rafa.
Sod was also more consistent than Stan from tournament to tournament, he’s ranked no.4 or 5 when the big four were in their prime or peak form, he’s better on the HCs and grass whilst Stan is on clay.
Stan has won two hard court slams beating world number ones in both finals. I would say he is better on hard courts than Soderling. Grass is another story lol.
Benny, it happened that the no. 1 was either injured or playing horrible tennis in those two HC slams that Stan won! In no way did the two no.1s played like Fed in FO2009 and Rafa in FO2010 finals! LOL!!
I’m sorry to say, nope, on clay Rafa isn’t/wasn’t vulnerable to big hitters. Rafa had no problem with the same Sod in the FO2010 final, beating Sod in straight sets. The 2009 Rafa suffered from knee injuries, so that’s not a good gauge of his normal level. You seem to mixed up Rafa on grass and Rafa on clay!
I meant that Rafa is susceptible to big hitters in general, on all surfaces. But rarely has a big hitter gotten the better of him on clay, and only once at RG.
I don’t think Nadal has ever faced a player on clay who played like Stan in RG 2015. No, I don’t think Soderling played that well. I’m not at all sure that Stan can replicate that form today, but if he can I think he will win.
And Joe, for someone who watched so little of Rafa’s matches, understands so little of his game, you seem to talk a lot about him and as if any player could beat him! The most ridiculous assumption you made was about Fed in his prime using a bigger racket would beat Rafa on clay even at RG.
You keep talking that when Stan is at his aggressive best he could beat Rafa on clay at RG, even when Rafa is playing well. They have met numerous times on clay, and the results except for one in 2015, were always in Rafa’s favor. I don’t see anything supporting your claim or your assumption, which to me is more of your own conjecture or wishful thinking. The only time and only way that Stan beats Rafa on clay is/was when Rafa was playing subpar tennis, like in 2015.
When did I say I haven’t watched Rafa’s matches? I watch most of the big four matches, though I’m sure I haven’t watched as much tennis as many on this site. I also play tennis at a pretty high club level, and I think I understand the game fairly well. Clearly, we have different views about a number of things regarding tennis, but that’s to be expected.
Rafa in 4.
Rafa in three and his reaction will be something special
If Rafa wins I will be fine for that exact reason lol. Plus history being made isn’t such a bad thing for the sport lol. Reaction from either guy will be awesome.
Even though I highly doubt it, there’s a very slim chance that Wawrinka won’t be lifting the trophy, but what I do know is, that if Nadal somehow should grind this match away with an absolutely amazing performance, then it is never ever going to be in 3 sets. Laugh at me, call me crazy, but I would call you so, if you think Wawrinka is not atleast taking 1 set, if not 3.
Bet big on a #WLB win MainATP.
#GoBigOrGoHome
Toni has said Rafa did not play play that well and was tense and nervous in the semi . As per Toni,Rafa played just well enough .
Don’t be tense Rafa ,history is awaiting you .
I agree that Rafa did not play particularly well in the SF. I thought he looked quite worried early on after the break. But Thiem could not consolidate and then faded pretty quickly.
Nevertheless, Nadal’s SF level will beat Stan’s SF level, no doubt in my mind. Stan must raise his game significantly to win; the same cannot be said of Rafa, who can win even if he’s not at his best.
Stanimal in 5
This final being set up is only thing that went right in my atrocious bracket. If Stan wins then I guess I still would consider my bracket a success.
stan in 4
Nadal in 4
Rafa 3 1, but no surprise to win 3 0.
All men are below Nadal’s level in men tennis played on clay court for a decade.
Confirmation 10 RG.
Stan did not bring God mode -or anything close- to the Murray SF, and that makes me less confident that he will bring that level to the final. I still think there’s a slightly greater than 50% that he will, so here is my estimate of the most likely scenarios:
1. (45%) Stan plays like he did in the SF: he gives up on trying to hit winners, plays it safe with more topspin, and slices returns that land soft and short. Rafa wins easily, probably in 3, possibly in 4 if Stan manages to attain God mode for a short time.
2. (30%) Rafa comes out on fire, gets an early break, and even though Stan steadies the ship, Nadal takes the first set. However, much like in 2015 RG final, Stan doesn’t get flustered, and gradually overwhelms his opponent in a flurry of winners (60 in 2015). Stan wins in 4.
3. (25%) Stan comes out in God mode, takes a convincing 1st set and doesn’t let up in second. Rafa manages to take the 3rd from sheer force of will, but again Stan wins in 4.
The main factor is whether Stan can bring his absolute best.
There are so many people here saying that Stan will raise the level as he normally does in a RG final and that he has defeated the reigning world no 1 each time. How many times has Rafa played the RG final and defeated the world no 1? And why would Rafa not raise his own game. Of the three victories that Stan has over Rafa, two came in 2015(He was losing to Fognini on clay that year) and one came over a hobbled Rafa.
Rafa builds his season around this tournament. If Stan is on fire, I am sure Rafa has a few tricks up his sleeve too.
Maybe it’s because Nadal’s track record at RG is pretty much uniformly great, and there’s not much evidence that he significantly raises his level for RG finals. For instance, many have called his early round victory over Balashavilli last week his greatest clay victory ever.
Stan’s track record, on the other hand, is to reserve his very best tennis for GS finals. He’s nowhere near the same player most of the rest of the time, which is why he only has one Masters 1000 title. For whatever reason, GS finals, which to this point have come only against Nadal and Djokovic, seem to bring out his very best. And possibly his greatest performance ever was in the 2015 RG final. That’s why so many are expecting him to bring his very best tennis tomorrow.
“, many have called his early round victory over Balashavilli last week his greatest clay victory ever.”
Strawman argument.
Rafa raised his level against Nole in 2013 and against Fed going down two breaks in the first set at RG (forget the year) just off the top of my head.
OK, I’m not saying that Nadal can’t or hasn’t ever raised his level in slam finals. But the difference in Stan’s case is practically orders of magnitude.
Even Wawrinka concedes, beating an in-form Rafa at RG is the biggest challenge in the game. It’s a bigger challenge than beating an in-form Roger at Wimbledon or an in-form Novak at the Australian Open.
Its a bigger challenge because it doesn’t matter how well you play, you can still lose simply because the Nadal formula on this court is close to unbeatable.
I give Stan a 5% chance of winning and 30% chance of winning a set
I would give better pcts than that LOL.
26% of the votes think Stan will win. That’s a big number.
You can’t take Polls as a reliable indicator. Look what’s happened in politics recently 🙁
ed,
Good one!
?
Ed, I hope this poll is correct!
LOL, ed.
Just means at least 26% that voted are fedfans.
#NothingNew
HEY HAWKS THAT OFFENDS ME #rogerthegoat #rogerwouldhavewonthisforsureifheplayed #fedfawnation #trollfordays
Have just watched Uncle Toni being interviewed on French TV – conducted in fluent French* I might add. There was no ‘talking the big talk’ but but he looked and sounded relaxed and quietly confident. He has often come under fire but let us not forget he is the man who guided and moulded the young Rafa to become the great champion he is today. This is the last time we will see him at RG as Rafa’s coach. La decima will be an emotional moment for him – not to mention Rafa’s legion of fans.
* I guess Uncle T is also responsible for Rafa now addressing the crowds in competent French
ed!…Read your post makes me even more believe that Rafa will do anything in his power to win FO…as a departing present to his uncle…
No way Stan would dismantle Rafa, unless it is God will.
Wisely hedged, Fg.
Wow, Rafa says he hopes he is not nervous. Well, hope that his nervy moment is passed with a shaky start against Theim.
Surely, if he could break down Theim, he can do the same to Wawrinka.
Stan doesn’t have a great record against Rafa. He’s beaten Rafa 3 times out of 18, but at the AO 2014, Rafa was clearly injured and he was injured in practice before the match started. Even if you give Stan the first 2 sets in that match with no asterisks there is nothing to say a fully fit Nadal wouldn’t have won that match from 2 sets down. As for Stan’s 2 wins in 2015, that was Rafa’s most horrible year in his entire career when he wasn’t injured. He was losing to everyone and still Stan couldn’t beat him easily.
2015 Rome Masters QF Clay Stan Wawrinka def Rafael Nadal 7-6(7) 6-2
2015 Paris Masters QF Hard Stan Wawrinka def Rafael Nadal 7-6(8) 7-6(7)
All Rafa’s 15 wins against Stan have been in straight sets, the most recent being in MC 2016 when Rafa won 61 64.
How can some people say the result of this match depends on Stan’s level? Rafa’s top level on clay is unquestionably better than Stan’s. I’m not saying Stan can’t win, but the idea that it’s his level that’ll determine the result is absurd. If both players are in God mode, Rafa wins.
Here’s one reason, Arthur. Look at the last match with Murray. Murray’s winner to UE ratio was even: 36/36. Stan’s on the other hand was 87/77.
Now, ignore that Stan’s ratio was +10 versus even for Murray, which goes a long way toward explaining why he won the match. Focus on the fact that he hit more than twice as many winners/UE. That means he was responsible for ending the point more than twice as many times as his opponent: the match was effectively on his racquet.
I’m not predicting that there will be a similar ratio against Nadal, but it would be extremely surprising if Stan’s combined winner/UE number wasn’t significantly larger than Rafa’s. If he can get his ratio high enough -to win it’s going to be well into poaitive territory- he will win. Again, Stan’s play will largely decide the outcome, so again the match is on his racquet.
Joe expounding on what can be called the Joe conjecture:
Anyone who has beaten Nadal even once is better than Nadal and the match is on his racket.
Arthur. Easy.
They’re all fedfawns.
No modicum of objectivity.
I can’t believe this fognini style head case of a player ostaplenko won womens grand slam against Simona. She got me believing now any one can win. Wawrinka might pull a win out of his ass tomorrow.
Joe Smith especially is making the most absurd posts. He claims Stan has a 75% chance of winning. Now it is quite possible Stan may win, but before they play our predictions have to be based on past performance. If you are talking numbers like 75%, you have to base them on a model, not fantasy. But even that absurd assessment is not as amazingly delusional as the ones hyping Thiem. At least Stan is a 3 time GS winner. But Joe thinks Thiem is better than Nadal! The tin hat of the year award goes to Joe.
ok, MainATP is also pretty good so Joe and MainATP are declared joint winners of the tin hat.
Mary wins the award for failing reading comprehension.
Find me one place where I said Stan has a 75% chance of winning the final, or that Thiem is better than Nadal.
When you think you’ve found it, read it again carefully.
I’m rooting for Stan but no freaking way he has 75%. Stan realistically has like 25%. Nadal is on a mission right now. The only way Stan wins is if he raises his level to the maximum of his life and Nadal dips here and there.
A 5 setter is usually more predictable than a 3 setter. If Rafa is not injured, based on h2h 15:3, Rafa ‘s chances are about 83%. Based on wins in RG finals, 9: 1, Rafa’s chances are 90%. Based on number of gs’s won, 14: 3, Rafa’s chances are about 82%.
Basing it on number of finals won out of finals reached is not a rational model because according to this a person who reaches only 1 final in his career and wins it is better than another who reaches 10 finals and wins 9! I think this fallacy can be named the Joe-MainATP fallacy in honor of the duo who specialize in such arguments.
Anyone watch the ladies final? We found a female version of Thiem in the ladies champion Ostapenko. Both are hard hitters, so I think it’s safe to say, the future of tennis is all about hard hitting power tennis from the baseline.
Bosstapenko has a harder average forehand than moonball Murray. I thank the lord for not giving us a Murray Nadal final. I think we can all at least agree that Stan v Rafa has more potential to be a great match than Murray v Nadal would have.
Nadal didnt break down Thiem. Thiem was already broken when he entered the court. Not trying to take anything away from Nadal, but that’s just a fact, as well as his way to the final has been very lucky.
First round for Nadal is Paire, the most consistent french fighter..
Second round vs Haase, well the dutch answer of a consistent fighter..
Third round (should be getting tough now) versus Gabashvillis Georgian cousin Basibub. Nadal must have been afraid of that encounter.
4th round – Well, atleast now it should get serious – or?
Totally out of form defensiv spanish bonobo Bautista with less confidence than a shy teenager on his first date. Toni and Nadal must have been fearing this one.
To the quarterfinals —-> Versus.. Not really anyone, Pablo was injured, so a free win for Nadal..
And if that wasnt free enough, well – Thiem spend all of his power to smack Djokovic, to give Nadal another very free win..
Wawrinka on the other hand, have taken on the Italian stallion aka Fognini, who can beat anybody and believes the same, he got swooped.
Monfils who were hungry and showing good signs, with a home crowd cheering him – swooped aswell.
Cilic – Playing his best clay tennis of his life – got swooped.
Murray who finally played himself of to that form who made him nr 1 in the world. Yea, you guess right, he got swooped aswell (in the 5th)
All of those 4 could have beat anybody that Nadal faced on his way to the final. And if you’re saying no, they wouldnt have beat Thiem, then yes and no. They would maybe not have beat the Thiem who rekt Djokovic, but they would have swooped the Thiem we saw vs Nadal in the semis.
You clearly are trying to discredit Rafa.
Your analysis is lacking. Who did Thiem play? Tgecinjtbtough opponent he had was Novak, who was a shell of the great champion we have seen in the past few years. Thiem looked good because Novak wasn’t able to play the way he is capable of playing. He didn’t even show up for the third set.
How about Thiem playing Zeballos instead of Goffin? Tough one, huh? Thiem also had an easy draw. You play the ones who get through and are in your draw. That’s the sport.
Whining about it doesn’t change it. Raonic and Dimi couldn’t get through to play Rafa. If they did, I don’t think it would have made a difference the way Rafa was playing. RBA actually played well. Rafa was just too good.
Yeah I had Goffin in the semis actyally. I think if he didn’t have that stupid fall it would’ve happened.
Yes, I picked Goffin to the SF.
Rafa’s draw was a lot kinder than Stan’s. But he got through it with flying colors. And that’s an understatement.
Good analysis dude, I like it. Nadal hasn’t faced anybody that would make him feel the pressure that makes gum vulnerable
Wawrinka’s a chance. Should’ve beat Murray 3:1 and I believe Murray played him into top gear. Wawrinka couldn’t have asked for a better hitout than what Murray gave him. He was also tested mentally and will mostly take his opportunities in the final.
” Not trying to take anything away from Nadal”
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!
(that’s when I stopped reading LOL).
Let’s all just agree that Rafa is the favorite, Stan at least has a chance, and let’s just hope for a great final and enjoy these two champs gunning for glory!
Champ vs chump.
Unless you mortgage your house and put all your money on either Nadal or wawrinka, your not 100% confidant.
True. People often act like they know the answer, like they’re completely sure, but it’s almost always empty bluster or overconfidence. The deafening silence when they get it wrong is pretty funny, but it doesn’t tend to deter them.
Looking forward to yours.
0.1% chance for Stan, if Rafa God mode is on display, fit and healthy, or
50% if Stan suddenly hits less than 20 UE in the whole match.
Yesterday he hit over 50, didn’t he?
.1? Ok…
Cilic is not playing the best tennis of his life – he started the season very badly. And Monfils has been injured most of the year. To say they are a tougher proposition than Thiem is just wrong.
Rafa hasn’t had the toughest draw, but he’s still played extremely well this clay season, and better than Stan has. Stan can obviously raise his level, but it’s on Rafa’s racket.
He is playing best clay tennis that’s what MainATP said. Obviously not best tennis. You gotta rewind to 2014 NYC for that.
You will learn by time. And time will prove me right, as usually 🙂
And Sam, don’t worry, I will make more money than you can imagine WHEN Wawrinka wins tomorrow.
And for the last time, I think Nadal is a great player, but nobody can beat Wawrinka when he is playing his best, and I know my man, he will peak tomorrow.
Actually Rafa at the french at his best is probably someone who actually could beat Stan at his best. I don’t think Rafa will play his best though. He’s got all the pressure to win a coveted 10th RG and he was even nervous against Thiem early on but Thiem just sucked.
I don’t think Theim can win a grand slam especially when all other next gen have grown up. He doesn’t have that kind of mentality to fight back and win …like Ostapenko.
I agree that Stan is nearly impossible to beat when he is playing like he did vs Murray in that fifth set or vs Novak in the 2015 final. That’s why I’m such a fan of Stan. He pulls out god mode in the biggest matches and it’s one of the greatest things to witness in tennis in my opinion. The winners he pulls out of his artillery are just stupid good. That famous around the net backhand against Novak in RG 2015 and some of the inside out backhands he is able to produce. People say Thiem has heavier ground strokes and maybe that is true I am not sure. But I know for a fact Thiem doesn’t have the shotmaking abilities of Wawrinka. Pretty much no one does. Except for maybe prime Rafa and Roger. And of course Brown and Monfils lol!! Oh yeah and that shot Stan hit on match point. That was pure beauty.
Match point in the semis against Murray I mean.
But, you have to factor in Murray’s empty tank in that fifth set; thus allowing Stan to hit those shots without much resistance from Murray. Why do you think Stan could only hit that way in the fifth set when he couldn’t earlier on??
Because he is clutch. Stan was blasting return winners on a regular basis and clocking his first shot in the point for clean winners. I think his performance in the fifth has more to do with his badass ability to start clocking bullets past his opponents over and over. Precisely why I love watching Stan but I think I’m beating the dead horse by saying that.
Nah, more like sensing the opportunities when he realized that Murray was running out of steam. Why won’t his badass nature appear earlier and hammering his opponents sooner than later? It had something to do with how his opponents played for sure!
He had all the momentum from winning the fourth set breaker. Murray has not played much this clay season due to early losses at the clay masters. No reason for him to be out of gas. Stan just broke his spirit with the shotmaking and heaviness he was coming up with.
Benny, Murray was out of gas due to all the running and defending he had to do, and under the heat and humidity. It’s not about how much he had played this season, rather the hours on court in this match where he’s the one doing so much running and under such conditions. I’m sure after a day of rest, Murray will be physically fine but not during the match. Stan looked the fitter of the two at the end of the match!
And you think Murray won’t fight till the end if he had enough energy to do so? You think he would just give up hope when they’re equal at 2-2 sets? This is a slam SF, you think Murray would give up so easily?
What I was saying is I feel like Stan broke Murray’s spirits with how many incredible shots he was hitting. Murray isn’t the mentally strongest. Definitely the weakest world number one mentally. But you have a good point about how he was mostly on defense throughout the match so he may have been a bit tired at the end. I still give a lot of credit to Stan for the incredible display of shotmaking he produced in that final set.
And I have to say Stan was prevented from hitting those bullet shots earlier on by Murray, who used his guile and court craft to defuse Stan’s power.
The fact that Stan usually loses to the big four guys despite his power hitting tennis tells us that the big four have ways to deal with Stan’s power, though Murray is the weakest of the big four hence his H2H vs Stan is close.
luckystar you’re kind of clueless about wawrinka. murray wasn t tired in the last set, the reason that set was one sided was because that was simply peak wawrinka making his first apearance since RG 2015 final…stan had the momentum and confidence from the 4 th set and that made the STANIMAL apear,nothing to do with murray being tired,and come on if you did watch that match wawrinkas stupid choices on atleast 10 easy points made the match closer than it should have been.And wawrinkas loses against the big 4 mostly have apeared in masters where it s clear as day stan doesn t realy care about,he said it himself that he wants to play his best in the grand slams.STan doesn t just lose to big 4 players in masters ,he can lose to anybody there With wawrinka loses are not that big of an indicator of what he s gonna do in a big match like this,his day form is all that matters.And if he does continue from the last set against murray ,nadal will be beaten no doubt about it.But that is a big IF so untill then rafa is still a huge favorite.
Ahem, cristiano, nope, Stan lost many times at slams to the big four too. Why don’t you check their respective records at the slams? Did he not bother then??
And Murray was out of steam by the fifth set as explained earlier on, just go and rewatch that fifth set again!
It’s strange that you and some others, are thinking that Stan was so stupid, that he didn’t go into his so called ‘god mode’ earlier on during the match, but had to wait till the fifth set, to start playing that way! Had it occurred to you people, that why Stan could only play that way in the fifth set but not earlier?? I thought the answer was obvious but yet we have people like you for example, thinking that others were clueless but in fact the term clueless is most apt in describing people like you!
Clueless or delusional fedfawns.
Or both.
Take your pick.
I can only agree with you. Beating Nadal in the RG final is perhaps one of the biggest challenges. But as you said yourself, all the preassure is on Nadal, and it was shown against Thiem, but it were never a match, and that was way more due to poor play from Thiem, than great play from Nadal. Wawrinka has the shots, as Thiem kind of exposed Nadal yesterday with, but just couldnt stay in rallies because of the lack of energy. Stan should be filled with energy, and he is a tank. Nadal have really been lacking lenght in his game all year, which is also why he lost matches as the final versus Querrey. Because if the opponent doesnt make errors, he will simply take the control of the game. And when hardhitting players like Querrey, and Wawrinka are at their best, they are able to break his defense down. Nadal is just not at the same clay level as he once were. I don’t doubt Nadal will win French Open again, and perhaps even next year, when Wawrinka most likely wont peak here again. But tomorrow, with all the preassure on Nadal, and Wawrinka with all that confidence and no preassure match at perhaps the place he got his best memories from, I believe he will create that moment again, and break down Nadal, by simply playing his game, amazing tennis, huge forehands, huge backhands, huge serves, fighting spirit and very few unforced errors. As you also mentioned – the backhand winner on match point vs Murray, was perhaps just the sign and confidence he needed to go into the final.
“Very few unforced errors”…Wawa had 77 UEs in the semi, what makes you think he would suddenly hit less UEs vs Rafa? Murray is mainly defensive on clay and he managed to take this Wawa to five sets! Rafa’s top spin, his FHs vs Wawa’s BHs will force Wawa to make even more errors except that unlike Murray Rafa will go for winners like he did with his other opponents rather than wait for Wawa to make UEs…
Christian,
You might want to review the site rules for this forum. Your use of profanity and inappropriate language violates site rules.
If you want to disagree with someone, then you need to do so using acceptable language.
edited, thanks
I guess dear cristiano was being a good christian in his choice of words.
You forget Delpo! Rafa, Fed and Delpo could produce jaw dropping shots and seemingly at will, better than Stan I feel. Stan couldn’t do it all the time, unlike them.
Monfils, Brown and Kygrios are more about their trick shots.
Ricky,
Thank you!
Agreed the level that Stan can produce is frightening. He goes to a supernatural level.
Let us see what happens when God mode Stan a.k.a the Man with the supernatural powers plays the humble man from Mallorca who is past his prime, who doesn’t get good length and who made it to the final because the players in his half played like crap.
Yet his god mode has only given him three slams when Murray, Rafa and Nole are not near their best.
He beat Feds best though. At least there’s that to hang your hat on.
Stan’s best is unlikely to do well against Roger’s, he has a terrible record against Fed. He’s 0 wins 15 losses on HC, Fed even narrowly leads the Clay H2H count 4-3. Out of the Big four. Roger is actually the worst possible match-up for Stan (albeit his records against Djoko and Nadal are also poor, though he does better against them at the slams).
Not near their best is a bit of a cop-out, only Rafa was injured. Stan was in great form in those tournaments, and he knocked out other Big Four players who were playing well. In that AO he also knocked out Djoko (at his favourite tournament, no less) after being a break down in the fifth.
I expect that Nadal will beat him tonight, but on the whole he definitely plays clutch tennis well, and makes it hard even for top opponents.
Not on clay when WLB was in “God mode” it isn’t a bad matchup.
In “God mode”, he schooled Federer at his best at RG.
When he’s in “God mode”, he can beat Federer in “God mode”.
Just not the other Big Four when they’re in “God mode”.
To state otherwise as fact is a bit of a cop out.
Uh, what you just said proves my point – if he’s not playing against Fed on Clay and playing his very best, the odds of him winning in that H2H are quite low, not to mention HC (or worse still, Fed’s favourite surface).
Federer at his best…in 2015, at RG? No doubt Wawa was clearly too strong, but you gave me a good laugh with that one.
No. Your point all along is thinking WLB controls the outcome of this match on Chatrier against The King of Clay having lost just two matches at the French Open.
Fedfawn delusion is what is laughable here.
Hilarious!
I never made that point, I don’t believe it’s true, and I’ve tipped Nadal to win.
Try again.
TWD, Stan and Fed had not played in a slam final. According to many Stan fans here, Stan is/was in ‘god’ mode when in a slam final. Fed had a hard time beating Stan in the AO SF this year when Stan injured himself. If Stan wasn’t injured, who knows, he might play in ‘god’ mode in the fifth set to beat Fed, just like in the fifth set vs Murray here in the SF.
Fed wasn’t a bad match up for Stan, it’s just that Stan was in awe of him all along. Stan wasn’t even playing that well at the AO this year, I would say on grass and quick HCs Fed has the edge, but not on clay and slow HCs.
Deepest and sincerest apologies fake Bowie fan.
You will have to excuse me. Hard to tell one fedfawn apart from another.
#DimeADozen
Luckystar – the whole ‘God Mode’ thing is rather overblown (it’s a v small sample, for instance), but I do think Stan is generally pretty good at playing the Big 4 in slams. But then, one would naturally expect that for an individual who has three GS titles, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
True Stan was injured in that AO final, but so was Fed (he was 35 too, although I must admit, still a very good version of Fed). I would include the mental aspect of the H2H as being part of the bad match-up – I think Wawa has a tendency to think that Fed has all the answers against him, which makes it harder for him to believe he can beat him. In recent years that has not been the case as much, but I think it’s still a factor.
Hawkeye – boring ad hominems, the last refuge.
No, delusion and disrespect is.
You deserve no better fedfawn.
Delusions and disrespect?
Haha. Tell me more about how Nole is back, and that people who disagree don’t get it.
Murray was gassed because of his poor play and resultant lack of mstches and tough situations. That’s what he said and makes perfect sense.
Whiny Little Bitch only plays so called God Mode when others let him.
Hope y’all bet everything on #WLB.
Perhaps the most relevant stat regarding Stan for today’s match is this. Since 2013 USO (when he beat Murray and then lost in 5 to Djokovic in the SF), Stan is 7-6 in slams against the big four.
In other words, for nearly the last four years he has a winning record against the best players in the very biggest tournaments. Needless to say, no other player even comes close.
Subtract his 1-3 record against Federer, and he’s 6-3 against Novak, Rafa, and Murray in slams during that period.
What about Nole? Even accepting your biased sample of counting only the 14 slams after USO 2013, I am sure Nole has a better record against the other three, at least 7-0. In any case Nole has not lost a single slam match after USO 2013 to the other 3.This stat itself is skewed as Nole is part of big 4 and we are excluding him whereas in case of Stan’s stats we are including Nole. In your effort to big up Stan you are quoting bogus stats especially when you consider that Nole won 6 slams in that period against Stan’s 3. Both Andy and Rafa were in less than stellar form due to injuries and surgeries during 2014-15 and Fed in 2016.
that 7-0 and not lost a single match to the other 3 applies to 2015 and 2016.
And also 2017!
In 2014, it was 2-1 against the other 3. So total Nole is 9-1 against other 3 after USO 2013 till date in slams. I am saying these figures from memory so even if they are not accurate, Nole’s record is undoubtedly better than Stan’s in the period chosen by you which represents Stan’s best period.
Mary, I never claimed that Stan is better overall than Novak over the last four years, which would be absurd. (Though even Novak has a losing record (2-3) against Stan at slams during that time). The point is simply that Stan plays crazy good against the best players in the slams over the last few years.
It’s not a “biased” sample at all. Of course his record against those four was much worse prior to 2013, but as everyone recognizes, somehow he became a different player around that time. No doubt you have a doping theory about it.
I think Swiss players specialize in doping which explains late career resurgence.
Ah, I see why you got confused, Mary: I meant that no other player *outside the big four* has a better record at slams *against the big four* at slams in the relevant period.
How is that “outside the big 4 ” relevant when we are talking about his match tomorrow against Nadal?
The big four are Fed, Rafa, Nole, Murray. Beating them at slams is a huge challenge, to put it mildly. Stan has a winning record against those four since USO 2013. No other player outside the big four is anywhere near that good against those four at slams in the relevant period.
So that is evident from the fact that it was his best period and he is second only to Nole in number of slams won during that period. Being good against Rafa or Muzz during the period you have chosen means nothing as it was Rafa’s worst period and part of it was Muzz’s worst. It also explains, apart from the doping solution, why that period was Stan’s best. The big 4 were big 2 for most of that time, nole plus 1 other ( part of 2014: Rafa, part of 2015: Fed and part of 2016 : Andy).
Why since USO2013? You should start from AO2013 where Stan had a tough five sets match vs Djoko and Djoko had to dig deep to win in five sets. Stan however lost meekly to Rafa at FO2013, pushed Djoko to the limit again at USO2013 before finally getting a win over Djoko at AO2014.
So, Stan is 1:1 vs Rafa; 1-3 vs Fed; 3-3 vs Djoko and until this FO, 2-1 vs Murray, from AO2013 to FO2017. Stan only has winning record over Murray and that’s only at this FO. We are also ignoring 2012 and before here.
And, Stan matches up well against Djoko but only at the slams, i.e. over BO5. He matches up well vs Murray, now 10-8 overall, mainly because Murray has the least weapons among the big four, and has to use his guile, his court craft and his incredible defensive skills to beat Stan.
Lucky, I was going to start at AO 2014, since that is the natural break-through event/year for Stan. I started it the slam before, where he was 1-1 against big four members; makes his record against Murray better but novak worse. Counting from AO 2014, his record against big four at slams is:
Rafa 1-0
Novak 3-1
Murray 1-1
Roger 1-3
Total: 6-5
Joe, you do notice that Stan’s wins were mainly against Djoko and Murray? It’s 7-5 now and will be 7-6 after this FO!
Oh, it’ll be 6-6 after this FO, not 7-6, I’ve wrongly given Stan one more win. Rafa and Stan only met once during this period and it’ll be 1-1 after the final here; please don’t lump Rafa with Djoko and Murray if you’re going to exclude Fed. Stan also had a win over Fed during this period, so don’t try to exclude that!
Well, since 2014 he has 1 each against Rafa, Roger, Andy. And yes, his best record is against Novak; worst is against Roger.
Again, the point is simply that he has played extremely well, against all the big four at slams (possibly excepting Federer) over 3 1/2 years. I think a big part of it is that he is not afraid of them and genuinely believes he can win if he plays his best tennis.
And, he had not met Fed in a slam final, unlike against Rafa and Djoko, so he might not be in ‘god’ mode vs Fed all those times. I’m not sure Fed would have all those wins if he met Stan in AO final or USO final. Stan was injured during their AO2017 SF.
Joe ignores injuries and severe slumps.
Let’s break it down.
An in-form Murray starting his run to No, 1 wins in straights in 2015 FO .
An off-form Murray exhibiting first signs of regaining form loses in five sets at 2016 FO.
An injured Rafa loses in four at 2014 AO.
An in form Djokovic loses 9-7 in the 5th set at the 2014 AO in a very even match until Djokovic has a brain cramp.
An in form Djokovic wins 6-0 in the in the 5th set at the 2015 AO in a pretty even match until Djokovic delivers a bagel.
An in form Djokovic loses at the 2015 FO in what most universally agree was a poorly played and out of character passive performance.
A severely slumping burnt out Djokovic loses in four at the 2016 USO,
So all this indicates is that Wawrinka matches up well with Djokovic, especially when he’s not on his game.
As Mary says, has little if anything to do with tomorrow’s match.
That’s all very convenient, Hawk.
The record is what it is, in 13 slam matches against the game’s four best players over nearly four years .
What it has to do with today’s match is that it suggests that Stan will play very well and the match will be competitive.
What’s convenient is not looking at the specifics of who he beat and what state their game was in.
Regardless,having nothing to do with his recent record in slams, I suspect WLB will play well and the match will be competitive which means it could go 3, 4 or 5 sets.
Don’t see Rafa allowing him to play god mode like his bad back did in 2014.
I hope Rafa beats Stan in 3 sets with a bagel.One of my friends pronounces Stan as Su-tan. Sounds like Satan!
#Rafa in God mode
…like Suh-tan
I got $100 on wawrinka to win 450 should I put more? I’m thinking to put 300 on wawrinka to get at least one set for -170
Only you know the answer to that question Sam. Bet whatever you feel like, and never more than you wouldnt be sad losing.
All I know is I am taking big shot, and going for a huge stake on this one. Either it will be a fantastic day, or it will an akward call to my boss asking for my job back 😉
* and never more than you would be sad losing/can’t afford losing * obviously ^^
Oh MainATP, you are curently unemployed? No wonder you sit all day at your laptop typing some garbage. What makes you think your boss will give you your old job back?
Haha, aww, trying to get personal, because I know more about tennis than you. I forgot you have to point out sarcasm for less intelligent people 😉
And if you really want to know what I am doing, then I can tell you that my job is spotsbetting, and it has been that for the last 8 years of my life.
If you would use more energy in watching matches and analyzing players, instead of taking your frustrastions out on the internet, perhaps you would also be able to predict winners like Wawrinka at odds 5 in the future 😉
Come back after the match tomorrow fedfawn.
You might be flipping burgers again sooner than you think.
Again, why are you talking about Federer?
If this was Federer vs Nadal in the final, I would most likely agree with you, that Nadal would win his 10th trophy at RG later, but that’s not the case. It’s Stan my man, and he will give Nadal a little reminder about how lucky he is, that he don’t release the stanimal more often.
According to the burgerflipping, you might be right, I wouldnt be surprised if I’d celebrate the victory tomorrow with a huge homemade burger ala Stanislas 😉
I didn’t mention Federer
A Freudian slip.
And the “most likely” is a ridiculously obvious tell.
Only fedfawns believe Federer has a realistic chance close to even vs Rafa at RG.
And this bias colours your judgement which is why you fail.
You could also look at becoming a Walmart greeter. Just trying to help.
I am making money doing what I love and sharing my knowlegde meanwhile. You on the other hand, are not making any money here, and are perhaps the one who should get a job, because you waste time here typing bullshit about others, when you don’t agree (Which is mainly you talking shit about anybody who is not stupid enough to believe Nadal is a guarenteed winner of the final versus Wawrinka)
Mate, I am not here to talk shit about anybody, I was here to share what I know, that Stan is playing absolutely amazing, and Nadal didnt have a real test yet, that doesnt mean he aint good or he wont win, that’s simply a fact for anybody who have been watching the tournament from the start till end.
This is my job, I get paid for this.
You seem quite upset.
Hope we both lose our bets today.
You could make more not betting against Nadal at RG.
But perhaps that’s the price to pay for enjoying textbook fedfawn delusion.
Here to help.
Did anyone make money of Wawrinka (WoW)!?
I was big on Wawrinka (winning the French Open), considering his good clay form at Geneva (and winning it also) and also his good form at FO-RG. But after seeing how Nadal crushed my teen crush, Thiem ( showing that Nadal is in greater form than any other tennis player in this world) and after seeing how Waw struggled to beat a non-clay court player(Andy), I decided to bet big on Nadal and won big $$$$$. Wawrinka was schooled or WoWed by Nadal!LOL
When we analyze the stats (like Waw never lost a Grand Slam etc. ) in too much depth ( I lost many a bet going only by stats that too in depth! Changed my stat based analysis recently and doing better now!) we lose track of the winners. Sometimes, just by understanding the current situation LOGICALLY/human factors (as described above) will give you the winners easily!
After Nadal winning his 10th Title at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid and Roland Garros, do you think Nadal is human at all? Is he an alien determined to crush all we human weaklings?!
Can Nadal replicate his human destruction at Wimbledon, US Open etc. on other Grass and hard court tournaments in 2017?
Personally, my confidence in Rafa for tomorrow is about more than just how great he has been in RG finals. I also believe that after what happened to Rafa at AO, it’s just hard for me to imagine him not doing whatever it takes to not let that happen again… If this match happens to go the distance, right down to the wire, I feel like it could be the moment where we once again see that classic willing-himself-to-win-in-the-biggest-matches Rafa. Even though Federer was absolutely sensational in that 5th set AO comeback and it may not have mattered in the end, but we know damn well that Rafa feels like that was an opportunity that he missed. And I think that he is so desperate to get another major win after three years that he just will find a way… I know that sounds really vague. I just feel like Rafa will practically kill himself on the court to get this title. He’s come so far from the peak of his slump in 2015, and I just think it’s his time to finally reap the rewards… I just really do hope we get a classic final, either way.
MainATP,
You need to check out site rules here. Profanity is not appropriate here. Respond without that kind of language.
Ricky runs this site and makes the rules. Please respect others here. You can make your argument without the use of profanity.
Kevin, I agree with your above analysis.
I think that with fed beating Rafa at 2017 AO, has hardened Rafa to play at a high level and beat everyone ruthlessly and not go to the wire!
I think it could be tougher for Stan rip all those winners, like he did in 2015 final, against Rafa simply because Rafa’s shots bounce considerably higher than Novak’s. I feel like Stan will have to take the ball ealier than he does against other players if he wants to rip those winners against Rafa. I know that this is totally different from hard court tennis, but I think Stan should try to take a page out of Federer’s book in terms of taking the ball earlier. Because of how high Rafa’s ball bounces, Stan’s only choices are to either step into the court more to take it on the rise, or camp out waaay behind the baseline to wait until the ball is lower. And we know Stan is not on Fed’s level of taking it on the rise, so I’m not sure where that leaves him…
If Stan takes the ball early, chances are he’ll over hit his shots! He’s hitting very hard from the baseline and unless he can control his power very well, chances of over hitting is high. He doesn’t have the finesse of Fed.
If he stays further back, chances are he’ll hit some short balls, allowing Rafa to come forward to take advantage. Stan has to play to his own strength and protect his own weakness. Rafa is good at that and at digging at opponent’s weaknesses.
I think Stan’s game always used to give Nole problems. But Rafa and Fed are able to handle him except when they are not in good shape. Haven’t studied how Stan’s game matches against Muzz. But looking at the h2h 10-8, looks like Stan is quite a handful for Muzz too. Now it is quite possible Stan may win tomorrow but looking at past history and how their game matches up against each other, I would say Advantage Rafa by a big margin. lucky has analyzed the match up well and I have nothing to add.
I Like your summary Kevin ….
Thank you, Alison. 🙂
Nny and other Rafans…http://sport360.com/article/tennis/french_open/236852/rafael-nadal-v-stan-wawrinka-roland-garros-final-preview-key-stats-and-main-talking-points/
http://www.dnaindia.com/sports/report-french-open-2017-nadal-to-blow-away-wawarinka-to-win-15th-grand-slam-2468145
Hohohohoho!…I guess we have to find out tomorrow!!Wooohooo!!
MA,
Love the breakdown analysis of the final!
The second one was really offbeat! Astrology! It’s in the stars for Rafa!
?
Hey Nny!..Yeah!!..oh!This is another 2…hope u still didn’t read it Nny!..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2017/06/10/rafael-nadal-vs-stan-wawrinka-mark-petcheys-tactical-guide-french/
http://sport360.com/article/tennis/french_open/236909/rafael-nadal-might-win-a-10th-roland-garros-legends-and-players-find-it-outrageous/
MA,
Yes to the first link! Loved the reference to Thiem hitting “haymakers” and ending up hurting himself. Also enjoyed the analysis of Rafa’s game and how it relates to Stan’s game, i.e. what Stan needs to do and what will not work against Rafa.
Putting that lead tape in the top of Rafa’s racket seems to have made a difference. Who knew?
Thanks as always for these great reads!
??
You’re very much welcome Nny!!Hehehe…Yeah!Roger changed to a bigger racquets and make a havoc of is own..and Rafa tweak here and there on his own racquet and games..and Voila!…If Rafa win his 10th…u just be ready at your house coz i will give u the BIGGEST and WARMEST and SWEETEST FLYING KISS AND HUGS YOU’VE EVER EXPERIENCE Nny!!Wooohooo!!…But,ooppss!!..to the final first!!Heh heh…
And Nny!…Hey..did u see the Astrologer’s prediction as well?I clicked his name and guess what?He predict Roger will win at AO and Roger win!…he predict Real madrid win in UCL and Real Madrid win!and he’s also predict that Novak will decline after splitting with Becker..and the player’s that was born in 1990’s would pose a huge headache’s for Novak and it happen’s too Nny!!….Oh My God!!Hahaha…
Yes! That astrologer must know something!
Unbelievable!
Love it!
You are helping to distract me as the pre-match nerves are kicking in!
Thank you!
?
Hehehehe….Yeah!Nny!!That’s my motives first and foremost!!…That’s alright Nny!…I feels that stan will fight like mad dog but Rafa will prevent him like a mad dog too!..and my gut tells me he will get his La Decima..Stan will get his La Dilemma and us fans will get La Palma in our heads!Lol!!
Opps!Forgot to predict!heh heh!….Rafa in 3…or 4!!
Who can recommend a good betting site?
Are you a bettor, Hawk? I realized years ago that engaging in it seriously would only put me in the poor house. However, if I was a betting man, I would be very tempted to bet against Novak winning Wimbledon (still 5/2, better than Roger at 3/1).
Actually, you can get even better odds on that one at bet365: 9/4.
Never placed a sports bet in my life.
But I’d like to lose a small chunk of change tomorrow.
bet365.com it is.
Wish me bad luck!!!
Good luck!
Good luck means for me that Rafa will win!
#YouveBeenSchooledByHawkstradamus
You’re braver than me. If I were to bet it would be on a match where I don’t care much about the outcome. I know enough not to trust my biases (!) and in any case I don’t think I could take the stress if my man were losing.
In this case I would bet a small sum against my favorite. First of all: betting that Rafa wins, doesn’t make you any money. But if he wins I won’t mind losing a bit of money. But should he lose I will at least make a bit of money, lol! I guess one could call that risk-reward distribution 😉
That said, I’m not up to getting into the intricacies of sports betting right now. It’s too hot today. I really don’t envy the players. The heat might well be a factor today. Does anyone know how Wawa fares in very hot conditions? I know that Novak doesn’t like it and Rafa used to do well if the sun is shining. But I think he can’t handle the heat as well as in former times.
I bet an amount i would be willing to pay to see him win.
Hope I don’t get a 550% refund.
It’s interesting to me that Vegas still has Novak ahead of Fed to win Wimbledon… I could understand Murray because he is defending champ, world #1, and isn’t playing quite as bad as Novak. But after everything that’s happened this season with Novak, they still think he’s more likely to win than Federer? I mean, I totally get that they have to take into consideration that Novak has won Wimbledon two of the last three years and beat Federer in the final. That’s huge. I just would have thought that Novak’s relative collapse over the last year would give him slightly lower odds. I honestly don’t know much about how Vegas odds work, though… I wonder, if Fed manages to win his lead-up grass tournaments, will his odds get better? I feel like no one has any idea where Fed’s level will be when he returns. I guess we’ll see! It would be awesome, imo, if we got a Fed vs. fellow-big-4 guy in the Wimbledon final this year. Who knows- Rafa could potentially do some damage this year, especially if he wins RG…
After initial odds are set, basically comes down to supply and demand.
As more money is bet on Djokovic, his odds to lose start increasing.
Odds I’m looking at have Murray a slight favourite over Federer. Nole slightly less favoured than Fed.
Rafa fourth.
Raonic 5th currently at 12.0
Interesting. Raonic not looking good after last year’s poor performance in the final? I still think he’s more likely to win than Rafa. Dunno. Unless tomorrow’s match totally wrecks Rafa he should be coming into the grass season pretty healthy, but there’s so many big hitters out there now…
I think Raonic is a great value bet.
He’s playing better now than 12 months ago.
Oddsportal – shows all the best odds of the bookies.
I won 7500 from Ostapenko match. I will put 500 to bet on Stan to beat Nadull. I believe Stan will beat the desperado. The underdog will win just like the women final.
Nicely done, Frank. What were the odds for Ostapenko in the final?
Ostapenko was +250. That break point winner in the third set that hit the net 3 ft outside the line was the craziest shot in the most important of circumstances that I have watched in quite some time.
I parlayed Ostapenko and Stanimal for 300. Payout is 4900… True value play. Nadal path has been a joke, Stan is in great form vs some strong opponents this FO…
Don’t care about hype or H2H… No value in laying that much on Rafa. Made that mistake of laying 2400 on Nole in 2015. Not worth the stress. If you’re looking to take Rafa, might as well parlay him with Spain, Turkey world cup qualifiers.
If Stanimal goes up a set, I’ll take Rafa with the cheaper number…
Tapwrit winning Belmont also is making me feel lucky…
Ostapenko battling back when dead in the water…was +1500 in live action when down 3-0 in 2nd set…
What do you think would be good value for Rafa?
My head is just saying, Stan +2.5 sets at -140.
Vegas and bookmakers want people to bite on Nadal at -2.5. I just don’t see it.
Stan’s match winner is $5.50 (now $5.00 5 mins before the match). At some stages, if the match goes tight, I will cashout my profits (when the payout for Stan goes down to $2.50).
You’d do better to cash out now fedfawn.
Blinded fedfawns are everywhere.
(until their surrogate loses today)
Fail harder LOL.
Nadal in 3. 6-3,6-4,6-2
Rafa in 3. He could get nervous so it can stretch to 4 sets.
Stan will see his power game diffused in a way that will rattle him. I remember how so many were behind soderling in 2010 and hoping he would defeat Rafa. While I acknowledge Stan is a bugger threat, I am expecting and hoping for a similar outcome.
god of clay for La Decima.
Rafa in 4 if the Stan from the semi turns up.
Stan in 5 if 2015 Stan at RG turns up.
Ostapenko is an amazing talent.
Imagine Serena Williams with Ostapenko’s talent…scary good.
Ostapenko has more talent in her pinky finger.
Turns out Jim Courier bases opinion on cherry picked information (like any textbook fedfawn).
Ostapenko’s game is too one dimensional, just hits as hard as possible, it’s either hit or miss, so the high number of winners and UEs. She needs to add in more varieties into her game as she matures as a player, her power game is not sustainable as she grows older.
Wawrinka is no pushover and will not cave in easily as Thiem did. Moreover Wawrinka can actually push Nadal way back behind the baseline and dictate play. Stan’s real issue will be keeping the unforced count low. We’ll see how it unfolds … http://www.138mph.com/wawrinka-vs-murray-was-it-really-that-close-nadal-next/
Kavita proves me right yet again.
Spotting fedfawns like shooting fish in a barrel.
⚠️ WARNING: CLICKING ON THE LINK ABOVE WILL INFECT YOUR PC OR MOBILE DEVICE WITH A FEDFAWN VIRUS. PLEASE AVOID. ⚠️
Stan is a chance.
After his 2015 RG win and seeing how high a level he can play on this surface, this is exactly where we wanted today, Stan facing off against the King of Clay at the top his game.
We have now got what we wanted, enjoy the moment and let’s see who prevails.
Can’t believe the RG final is a day before my final CA exams :/ will be tempted to watch the finak though. Good luck to Rafa !!
You can’t not watch VR!!!!!! Besides there’s no way you will be able to concentrate on your books this afternoon. And fingers crossed Rafa is going to do it in three sets.
Fingers crossed, too, for you tomorrow.
ed,
Good advice!
An extra motivating voting factor is Stan will remember how Nadal use to bully Fed around in the RG finals. There will be a bit of revenge factor in this if he still has some in the tank after is 2014 Australian Open demolition.
Ha Jim, what has Rafa bullying Fed got to do with Stan? If possible Stan would also want to bully Fed! Did he give in to Fed at FO2015? No, he beat Fed in straight sets, as Fed was one of the road blocks to his slam title! If Stan wasn’t injured, he would also want to beat Fed at the AO this year, he won’t be fighting hard to level the match at 2-2 after being two sets down if he didn’t want to beat Fed. So stop talking about Stan as if he’s such a hero that he would want a revenge against Rafa for Fed’s sake.
Fedfawns revealing themselves again long after I did already.
This is why you fail.
Too funny.
2014 RG Champion vs 9-time RG Champion.
Wawrinka will feel like he’s defending his title and legacy to some degree.
You bring in these motivational factors and you just look at Stan. What about Rafa? His slight basically started in the AO ’14 final. While he still managed to win RG that year he never was the same for almost three seasons. And he explicitly said how much the AO loss against Stan and especially the way it came about hurt him emotionally. Now he has a chance to exorcise these demons, and he can do it on his terms in his living room so to speak. While that might add some extra nerves at the beginning of the match, once he settles down, he will fight with everything he can bring on the table and then some.
Correction: I meant to say ‘slide’ instead of ‘slight’.
If it is 2014 RG champion against 9 time RG champion – well, then it’s Rafa against Rafa, lol! Maybe, that’s correct, though 😉
I was addressing “Jim Courier’s” statement above.
“Legacy”?
Hahahahahahahaha!
Hahaha, it takes a big man to pickup on people’s typos to ridicule.
Motivation is much more important for Wawrinka I feel. He’s the one that can play like he’s outside the top 10 or no.1 in the world.
Plus he’ll need to be motivated out of this world to compete with Nadal until the end.
Oh, you can’t take a harmless joke in good stride or can you ? 😉
Totally disagree with you about the motivational aspect. Sure, Stan will be very motivated, no doubt about it. But you tend to look only at Stan in your analysis. But today there will be two players on court. In my book Rafa has more to lose than Stan, and Rafa has actually a fairly good track record at setting things straight after previous losses. The only one where it really didn’t work for a while used to be Novak.
Anyway, all our talking won’t influence the outcome of the match. IMO neither will astrology. Each player can do without the help of the stars.
Are you sure it’s just a “Littlefoot”?
What are you talking about???
I was talking about how funny you are. You should be a comedian.
🙂 🙂 🙂
Nadal has been careening towards a date with destiny, marching into a 10th final in the French capital without dropping a set. As ruthless as the Spaniard had been in streaking to the titles in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid, he has been arguably even more impressive at “Roland Garros, relinquishing just 29 games – an average of just five games lost in six matches. It is the second-fewest number of games dropped in reaching a Grand Slam final in the Open Era, behind only Bjorn Borg’s run to the 1978 Roland Garros final.”
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/roland-garros-2017-final-preview-wawrinka-nadal
The way I see it, Rafa is definitely a huge favourite because of the history and aura he has over here. If we look at how the both of them played at SF, then Wawa definitely played at a much better level than Rafa. But that could also be attributed in large to Thiem hardly pushing Rafa to play good. He kinda self destructed himself out there. One thing which was very much evident in the SF’s was the nervousness with which Stan & Rafa played their SF’s. I haven’t seen Wawa trying to pump himself up so many times in a match. Usually he remains much less dramatic. As far as Rafa’s match against Thiem was concerned, it was quite surprising to see Rafa make so many uncharacteristic errors in a match after playing so well over the fortnight.
So based on their SF matches, I expect both of them to be pretty nervous for a major part of 1st set and we may actually get to see some good tennis from both by the end of 1st set/ start of 2nd set.
The way I see this match playing out (rating out the chances)
Rafa to win in 3 (30%)
Rafa to win in 4 (40%)
Rafa to win in 5 (20%)
Wawa to win in 4 (10%)
So it’s 9:1 in favour of Rafa for me.
abhirf gets it.
That’s the difference between a fedfan and a fedfawn.
Props.
Also want to mention out one point about Stan. He isn’t exactly a ball basher type of player. He does uses the slice and spin in the rallies pretty well and then pulls a trigger the moment he gets a chance to. It’s the defensive prowess of the big guys that forces him to play 3-4 power shots consecutively which creates a bit of an image of him as a ball basher which he is not. Thiem needs much to learn from Stan in that aspect. Being patient and then pulling the trigger will bring him much more laurels than with his current strategy of looking to hit out on every ball. Needs to minimise the risk on low percentage shots.
Absolutely he’s not a ball basher, he’s finely balanced between power and control. He just has so much shot-making ability that his mind and body have to be in total sync to play at his full potential.
But Stan doesn’t have the finesse of Fed, Rafa and Murray. Djoko has also improved very much on his volleying and his net approaches and has added more varieties into his game. I think all four of them are above Stan in their varieties and shot making, even when they may not match his fire power.
Agree to disagree. Watch the 2014 Australian Open final again. Stan can raise him game to a supernatural level.
Supernatural level vs an injured opponent? All I remembered was he losing a set to an injured opponent.
There’s no doubt about that. Stan lacks the variety of big 4.
Past 3 to 4 seasons, he’s just found a good balance in his game mentally to be patient, hang in there in the match and impose his strengths on an opponent as soon as he gets the chance to do so (unlike many other talented players on the tour)
Keep calm, stay focused, remain confident, be strong and show your fighting spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCCd4whXsAALR64.jpg
Only God can beat Rafa at his backyard / living room. God mode Stan will not suffice:)
It’s not his backyard. Stan was the last winner and defeated the man that took him out last year.
Courier is now on complete tilt.
Lol!
The worst case scanario for Rafa is that he gets nervous and loses the first set. But if he falls behind, the beast mode will appear as it did in RG 14 finals.
If Rafa’s off forehand gets on a roll, nobody can stop him.
MA to Nny!MA to Nny!…Wake up!wake up!..your darling gonna start any moment now!!..Here’s your morning coffee to open your eyes!!..
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/5c/9b/63/5c9b63e7310ba053814bd462323202ff.jpg
MA,
I am here! I am ready! But I am very nervous!
Help me get through this!
Good luck Rafa! Take La Decima and make your place in history!
??
Nny!…oh!don’t be nervous okay?If we nervous,we can’t enjoy the moment…and today is a very very special moment for us and for Rafa…Let’s rumble with Rafa Nny!!Woohooo!!!
Anyone can win this match. It is a GS final not an ATP 1000.
Agree.
No one said otherwise fedfawn.
Guessing that’s why Roger cried during AO trophy presentation to Rafa in 2009.
MA,
Holding virtual hands in cyber space!
?
Nny!…https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/f5/72/d4/f572d4cb35220759c68da851b4a74471.png
31 degrees in Paris. Advantage Nadal.
Vamos Rafa! Go get him! ?
Just wait for another two hours to see trophy presentation for Rafa.
Here we go! Both guys hold their first service games.
Stan needs to get into some long rallies to start off with.
Rafa not getting in a lot of first serves, but that second serve is doing the job.
Rafa holds!
The Wawrinka power is just beautiful.
Lady luck is with Rafa
Rafa’s shots are beautiful to see.
Vamos Rafa!
C’mon Wawrinka, don’t you dare become over cautious
Both guys hitting pretty big but seem a bit tight. Still high quality ball striking but quite a few misses in the net from both guys.
First 2 games were easy holds. now real battle started in next 2 games. both duece games
Rafa gets break point!
That was a crucial hold for Stan to avoid getting broken early.
Wawrinka just needs to play at 80-85% firepower and he wins
God!how many chances rafa got already and can’t take advantage?He should press stan harder now when stan is still nervous and shaky…
Rafa seems expectedly nervous too. Missing a lot of returns right now.
Agree. keep him under pressure
Stan plugging away in this game. Keep ball bashing Stanimal. Oh man that backhand from Rafa was sweet.
Guga is in the house!
I didn’t realize this but Stan the Man’s most helpful asset so far today is actually his kick serve on the ad. Didn’t realize how effective that was gonna be. Huge hold.
VR!..Rafa’s FH CC was recorded at 3371 RPM…
I hope vr is watching and not studying now.
Rafa holds.
Why not both?
There’s that DTL forehand!
Me too Nny!…Rafa needs his blessing lol!
Got it! Break for Rafa!
Yes!!Take that stan!!Rafa’s trademark FH winner!!…On the verge to break now!!
Yes!!Break now Nny!!Woohoo!!!Still nervous??..Don’t be okay?
Another 90 minutes
Rafa has to hold here.
Great wide out serve!
The condition will favour Rafa tremendously today…Stan will get a trouble to handle rafa’s heavy topspin that will flying high on shoulder height…
vr,
Where are you? Rafa needs your support! You can study later!
Come on Rafa! You can do this!
Lol solving questions and watching. Rafa totally imposing his game…
vr,
You are here!
MA,
Yes! Good point!
63 61 60
Hahaha…agree fg!!
If only the score is that easy!
Rafa wins the first set!
?
The heat and the fact Stan had a tougher path to the finals = game over.
LOL!
Changing your tune quickly haha
Stan has missed a few forehands that were set up for the one-two punch, he can’t afford to do that.
Nadal playing pretty well early, gonna be hard for Wawa to turn this around now.
Vamooooossss! ❤️❤️❤️
yes!!!rafa seems got a groove now!!..1st set in hand!!Woohooo!!…Nny!…I ask u again..still nervous??
MA,
I feel better, but I won’t relax until it’s over!
Nny!Hahaha..understand..but…if both going at this rate..insyaallah rafa will win Nny…Stan make a lot of UE’s now…and soon he will lost more confidence and belief if he can’t break Rafa’s rythmn and got frustrated..
I think if Rafa win the 2nd sets…match will be finished in just 3 sets..insyaallah..
second set will set tone. if rafa rakes second too then will be very hard for stan to come back.
No man on earth can play a fit Rafa in RG
Yes!!!Break again Nny!!Woohooo!!
Magnus is looking v worried, and I don’t blame him.
Stan seems broken now…
Forehand in full flow now. No nerves!
Nadal is just phenomenal. Vamos! 🙂
Hey ToMMo!..1st time u came here!!Haha…Glad to ‘see’ u here buddy!!
Very possibly Rafa will finish the match with strong scores once again…
WOW! GOD ON CLAY!
Good comment I just read: ‘Fed showing everyone what to do when RG comes around’
Lol!
Epic! ROFL
Another 45 minutes
I reiterate my earlier comment. Only God himself can beat Nadal today.
Maybe Rafa can finish this match under 2 hours again…who knows!
Crucial for Rafa to keep holding up a break. If he wins this second set, then I don’t think Stan can come back. But Rafa cannot let up.
I can’t get over his second serve! It’s gotten so much better!
One set at a time!
My God!!!!FH winner on the run!!!!Oh My God!!!
WHAT was that forehand! WOW!
Stan could only smile.
Thank u God!!Everything seems clicking for Rafa today!!
Rafa is a bigger hitter than Stan. So much for those talking about Stan power.
Stan doing all the running…Rafa doing all the hitting.
WHAT WAS I SHOUTING!!! RAFA will totally impose his game and stan will be SUBDUED. Been saying this since forever!!!
Roger is clever to avoid this type of drubbing 😀 🙂
There goes the racquet & the 2nd set
Vamoooossss! ❤️❤️??
Stan of the semis turned up but a tired version. No 2014 or 2015 Stan here today.
Glad I didn’t pay big bucks to go watch it in Paris.
Man, what kind of insane level is this. All slams for the year wrapped up already.
Yes!!!There’s the break!!!Wooohooo!!
So Fed swept the HC swing, Rafa sweeps the clay swing.
What’s next??
Andy to sweep the grass swing and Nole to sweep the fall swing??? :):)
Novak is not coming back in time to sweep the fall swing.
Never say Never especially when the person in talk is an all time great 🙂
My predictions were correct, 5% chance of winning and 30% chance of winning a set. Maybe those percentages were a bit optimistic.
LOLOL
Rafa is potentially going to win the remaining 3 GS, this is back to 2008.
yes!!!FH DTL again!!Woohooo!!Love u Rafa!!
so who had doubts about the greatness of Rafa’s forehand???
Stan hasn’t brought his A game but holy moly was I wrong about Rafa. I thought he would be nervous. Obviously he is just so focused and totally bashing the ball. Too strong from Rafa. Didn’t expect this incredible of a performance from the king of clay. This is vintage stuff. I’m shocked Stan managed to win that game. Those two points Rafa won were freakishly good though.
0-30 now in Rafa’s serve.
What will the rankings be after this?
Rafa will be #2 and Stan will be #3 and Novak #4.
Rafa saved his best for the final.
Rafa hold!
wow Novak #4
Cheers.
I just know Rafa will be no.2
Woohohohoho!!FH clicking beautifully today Nny!!
MA,
I am getting emotional already. Trying to keep it together. I am just so proud of Rafa!
Nny!Relax,relax!…match not over yet!
FH winners…Rafa 13,stan 9 so far…
Think Rafa was a nut pissed about losing the AO final after being up a break in the 5th.
Brain cramp from Stan!
Haha!! Hahaha!! I see what you are trying to do there. Where is hawkeye when you need him
Rafa display tennis from outer space today!
Ooh I thought Rafa had that!
Rafa has gone to another level.
Rafa is trying to get that second break.
God, I am crying already. So much emotion. ?
Yes!!Break!!…Stan asked spectators their support and got it…but Rafa silenced it with his tennis!!Awesome!!!Woohoo!!!
Wow! Supreme, magic, magnificent Nadal!
Vamoooossss! ❤️
That’s the match. If Stan got that game he could’ve had a slight bit of momentum but Nadal defense is outrageous. 6-1 or 6-2 for Rafa. Likely 6-1.
I think we can see someone down to the ground and crying helplessly not for long now!!
MA,
I am already crying. I can’t hold back!
This is it!
Nny!!…U and your darling are soooooooo emotionale!!…I don’t know why!!…
Where are all the betting rookies saying they were gonna win big on Stan???? LOL. What a joke. you all do not even bet. If anyone wants to see how big I actually won on Rafa today, email me and i will gladly send you a screenshot.
Thanks tosser, that makes up for some of your losses the past few years
Well Stan can brag he got more games than another swiss got in 2008
LOL ?
I’ve been watching the match on a neighbour’s cinema sized TV. Rushed back home to join in the Tenngrand party!!!!!!!!!!
Speechless with excitement
I can’t stop crying.
Rafa I love you forever!
What a moment! I am just glad that I am here to see it!
Congrats, Rafa. Just too good.
YES!!!!!!!WOOOOHOOOOO!!!!I LOVE U RAFA!!!!!WOOOHOOOO!!!!
BELI5EVE IN HISTORY!!!..10 FO!!!!!!WOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!
Nny!Nny!Nny!Nny!Nny!….Do u believe me now??????Woooohooooo!!!
Yessss! Vamosssss!
Love you, Genius! 10 ?
Love you Rafa! ❤️❤️❤️
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh woohooooooooooooooooooo
Fist pumps to all the Rafans. We have been through so much over the past three years.
YEAH vmk1!!….Wooooo!!
Rafa is the 10-time Roland Garros champion!!!!!!!!!!
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Vaaaaaaaaaamoooooooooos Rafa!!!!!!!!!!
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Here’s for u Nny!!…http://www.allgraphics123.com/graphics/hugs/hugs28.gif
MA,
Thanks for the virtual hug! It’s just sinking in now!
Hahahahahaha….Take your time Nny!….Take a deep breath…and inhale slowly okay?..Now..what the Astrologer’s said in the article?He said Rafa will blown stan away today right?And what a blown that is!!!Wooohoooo!!!
I think Murray would’ve done better today. Ah well, Nadal made amends for the AO title he should’ve eon this year.
Fed or Murray will win Wimbledon. Any of the top 5 could win the US Open.
LOL!!!
Agreed. Roger Murray and a healthy Kyrgios/Raonic are my favorites for Wimby. Rafa will probably be a bit gassed this grass season. He deserves a rest before Wimbledon. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays no grass tournies before Wimbledon. Well deserved win for the king of clay. What a badass. Such a great moment for tennis. ?? ??
#laDecima
#GOAT
Rafa is crying too!
Was thinking of you early in the match and knew all was well when, in spite of the heat, there was no sweat pouring off Rafa. He was in complete control of his nerves. There was no way he was going to let C..B… get a look in today 🙂
I think Fed was the first guy who indicated after Miami that Rafa will stamp everyone on clay
Yep! Fed said it first!
And Nick was right! ?
Yes vmk, I sure remember what Fed said about Rafa and the clay season. Fed certainly knows Rafa so well to have said that! I’m very pleased about what Rafa has done this clay season, winning his 15th slam and breaks away from the tie with Sampras.
Sampras too had predicted that both Fed and Rafa would surpass him in the slam tally and he’s oh so right!
Congrats fellow Rafa fans! I knew Rafa would win it in straights. Disappointed though that he did not dish out a bagel!
RITB, it would be great if you could join in the celebrations!
Yes! I would love to see RITB here again!
Vamos Rafans! ❤️
I hope she is ok.
i’ve been wondering the same thing. She went off the air so suddenly.
I am at work, is it done? Folks is it done?
Yeah it’s done alright, everything but the trophy ceremony, Nadal won easily, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1.
Ohhhh…ohhhhh…..ohhhhh…thanks TWD…the stale bread and warm juice are better than eating crow again.the last 2 hrs before the match start is like forever.
Yipee absolutely delighted, 10 and 15 🙂 ….
Congratulations to all Rafa fans. What guy! So proud not to have lost faith in him.
Rafa is now ranked #2.
Vamos Rafa so happy for you 🙂 ….
It’s been a long road back. But it’s been worth it to have this moment!
What words can I say about Rafa? He is my hero! What courage and guts to keep in fighting through the darkness into the light!
Rafa, this is your time! Enjoy it!
Vamos Rafa! What a champion! It’s such an emotional win for Rafa and for all his fans! So proud of our Rafa!
#CHAMP10N
#GOAT2.0
Woooooohoooooooo!!!
NEVER IN DOUBT. 15th slam!!!!
Yeah VR, never in doubt for the 15th Slam and 10th at RG. It’s just amazing come to think of it, what an amazing journey we have together with Rafa!
I’m so glad that Rafa is 10 for 10 in FO finals, and 1-1 vs Stan in slam finals, and stops Stan’s perfect records in slam finals!
Congrats to all you Rafans!
#NID
#RightHawks?
A little bit of doubt is always a good thing for me, no?
Haha, I wasn’t being sarcastic, Hawks! I was paying homage to you by using the #NID tag. 🙂 I’m psyched for you, man!
congratulations to Nadal fans
congratulations to me
Yeah congrats to u too Ricky!!
I know Kevin. No worries!
There is always some doubt where sport is concerned.
Picking Fed to win Wimby. Might even place another strategic wager LOL.
Haha, do it! Yeah, I think that at this point I would bet on Federer to win Wimbledon if I had to make a bet. Although I think it’s too early to truly declare him as THE favorite because he hasn’t played in a while. That is the one downside to his break, which I’m sure he’s aware of- that he runs the risk of losing the momentum that he carried from AO through Miami. He could show up in Stuttgart and Halle and run the table like he used to. OR he could potentially be flat and turn out to have lost that aggressive edge he had. We shall see! Personally, I would love to see Federer conquer Novak again at Wimbledon. I’ve seen Fed kick Murray’s ass at Wimbledon enough. If I had my way, I would have Novak come back to form at Wimbledon, face Fed in the final, and have Fed exact revenge over him in another 5-set epic. After this year’s AO, I decided that I wanted 3 things- 1.) For Rafa to win RG 2.) For Fed to win Wimbledon 3.) To get another Fedal final in the US Open. 1 down, 2 to go!
Thank u very much Kevin!!
You’re so very welcome, MA! I know that you all had been suffering for three years, just like the Federer fans had been suffering for four and a half years, so I am so happy for you and your fellow Rafa fans. 🙂
Awww Kev!!…You’re so sweet!Thank u thank u thank u!…It means so much to hear that from u Kev!!…I’m happy too when Rog win AO last January…always admire his greatness,no matter what people said about him…
Tell me about it Kevin!!! I not only suffered, I have been heart-broken!! This is sweet, indeed, but the AO still haunts me to this day!!
I was hoping they would have given Rafa an honourary trophy together with his Coup for this mind blowing achievement, and mention for sure that they will be building a new stadium in his name!! They should have done a lot more! And yes, I am that ungrateful!!
Next year, there are two questions that may needed to be asked: who is going to play Rafa in the final, and two, how many games you think he can win? lol!! But i wish Rafa would focus more on the other slams now…..10 is more than enough!!
Vamos!!!!
Congrats my fellow Rafans! This is great and emotional moment for all of us!
So proud of our Rafa! Love you ❤️
This year for the ATP still can’t get much better. Fed and Nadal are the winners of the first two slams and Djokovic is number 4 now. And Stan playing well too. And my man Muller won a title and at a career high too. Only thing that could be better is Murray not being number one. Not a huge fan. I prefer him over Novak though.
I am going out now to celebrate Rafa’s victory with my friends! I must enjoy this moment! Rafael Nadal!!!
#GOAT
I agree with you, Benny. Having Federer and Nadal dominate the whole first half of the season like the old days is definitely great for the ATP and the fans. I would guess that of all the people around the world who are fans of one specific player, probably 2/3 of them are Fed or Rafa fans, so that means there’s a lot of happy people out there haha! Unless Federer has some sort of catastrophic injury/collapse in the second half of the season, I don’t see any way possible right now for Fedal to not finish the season in the top 2 spots… The main question is how long can it continue? Fed approaching 36 makes it seem unlikely that he could continue his form for too much longer. Rafa is only 31, so I can see him dominating more for a while, unless Novak miraculously finds his way back to 2015/2011 form.
As far as Fed getting to #1 is concerned, Wimbledon is onviously very important, but his post-Wimbledon results are going to be so key because he is defending 0 points in what has traditionally been his strongest chunk of the season.
As for Rafa, I know that people have low expectations of him at Wimbledon, but I’m thinking differently… I think that this clay season is going to give him so much confidence going forward that he could potentially surprise people at Wimbledon. I don’t necessarily believe that will happen, but I think he could be more of a threat there than we think. I think that the US series is going to AWESOME! The US Open is the one tournament where all of the Big 4+Stan are legitimate contenders to win it. I can’t wait for that…
I think we are gonna get some big results from guys like Raonic and Kyrgios during the grass and US hard courts swing. Rafa will probably not have too much grass success but who knows. Roger is my pick for Wimby and I probably can’t make a pick for US Open til I see how everyone is playing. Don’t see why Roger or Rafa can’t win that one either. Would be epic if this year’s slams all went to Fedal. I’m still bullish on Stan winning a slam per year though ? So maybe he defends the US Open crown?
Also I expect some big runs from Americans and I think Thiem will have a similar situation to last season where he had an amazing clay season but was subpar on hard and grass courts. Zverev I think will have some solid results but probably no masters titles again. I could see Kyrgios taking a hard court masters sometime this season. Perhaps Paris indoors. Seems like a surface he would thrive on. Also Opelka is going to win at least a match at Wimbledon I’m calling it now. I have a feeling about him. I feel he is gonna be much better than Isner. He is probably the young American I am most excited about. Fritz has meanwhile gone 0-2 already this grass season, losing to Whittington round one at the Surbition challenger this week then losing first round of qualifying in Stuttgart (where he took Fed to three last year) with a loss to Chiudinelli. Why in the world did that guy get married and have a kid? Such a moron.
Big runs from Americans? You ARE a believer. (Does Ryan Harrison winning the RG doubles count?)
Could someone remind my why Rafa has been so awful at Wimby again, esp when he had made consecutive finals there for years! I just cannot understand it. And AO, dont know what kind of voodoo magic is it with Rafa and this tournament! He has made more finals there than at the US Open and has won less titles!! Its just incomprehensible!!! Choops!!
Monalisa…Rafa has been so awful at Wimby these last 4,5 years because of his knees…the ball will bounce so low on grass that he can’t bend his wobble knees to get it…especially in the 1st week when the grass is still thick and full..that’s why many pundits predict that if he can survive the 1st week,he maybe has a chance to go deep..maybe to SF or Final…
Also Rafa rarely can drive a car because he have to bend his knees and it makes his knees hurt so bad…
‘Also Rafa rarely can drive a car because he have to bend his knees and it makes his knees hurt so bad…’are you serious?!!
Anyway, thanks for responding. I just hope he continues with good health and that he gets to the finals at Wimby, at least this year!!
Ruthless and clinical Nadal, I feel for Stan but there’s nothing he could have done today.
Legendary is the word.
Congratulations to all Rafans
I’m so glad about Rafa! Greatest champion ever! 🙂
This year in tennis is just great. I want Nadal – Federer final in Wimbledon again!! That would be huge! 😀
That would be epic.
*drool*
Can we dream of another Wimbledon :-*
Actually I have been dreaming of Rafa repeating 2010 and surpassing it by winning WTF and then continuing the amazing run with a victory at AO 2018 to complete a non calendar year grand slam!
I’ll sign for that.
I think there’s more to come from Nadal. He’s proved all doubters wrong that said he’s playing style won’t hold up into his 30s, that be would burn out etc.
He’ll be around for as long as Fed is around.
Rafa becomes the first player to make the WTF cut 🙂
Whoaaaa!!! Congrats to our dear Rafa and all the Rafans. Condolences to those who bet big against him. As for the naysayers…:)
Congrats to Rafa for La Decima!
Commiserations to Stan.
Onto the grass season we move
To Nny and all my dear Rafans….http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/news/articles/2017-06-11/he_dies_for_every_point_legends_laud_nadal.html?mosaic=rafa
MA,
Thank you for that ink and all of the great comments from past tennis champions..
Rafa deserves all the praise that they have heaped on him.
??
Nny!!You’re welcome Milady!!…Btw…how do u feel atm?
MA,
I am over the moon! I feel like a weight has been lifted off me! I feel like I could fly!
I am singing to myself and can’t stop smiling!
It’s a great day!
?♂️?????
Nny!!…Hahahaha…yayyyyy!!!….yeah!i understand how u feel…i’m almost kiss a slobbering cow myself!..good thing i can stop myself just on time!!Hehehe…oh!btw…here’s a couple of good articles Nny!…and many many more to come!!Woohooo!!
https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/rafael-nadal-roland-garros-better-love-story-than-anything-really
http://sport360.com/article/tennis/french_open/237035/rafael-nadals-success-at-roland-garros-isnt-special-because-its-number-10-its-special-because-of-his-journey/
MA,
Great articles! There will be much more written about it for sure!
Rafa has climbed back up from the depths of despair last year when he had to withdraw due to injury, to the very height of joy and triumph.
?
Hey Nny!…It’s good isn’t it?…oh!i already mentioned about this but maybe u missed…but Nny!U remember what the Astrologer’s said in the article?That Rafa would blown Stan away right?…And HE’S RIGHT ONCE AGAIN Nny!!!!Ohohohohoho!!…UNBELIEVABLE!!!!…Rafa not only won..but,he thumped Stan mercilessly!!..Oh My God!!…I can’t believe it!!Hehehe…
Oh!..this is another article Nny…
https://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/news/omens-good-for-nadal/76659
http://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/40242054
God damn, how crazy would it be if Fedal went to on win every slam for the next couple years between them and both ended up with 20+ majors haha? I know it’s like a one-in-a-million chance, but who knows?? 🙂
Another record for Rafa. He has won slams in his teens, 20’s and 30’s! Only the third ma to do it, along with Ken Rosewall and Pete Sampras!
I seriously believe that Rafa can end his career with 12+ RG titles… I really think that they should consider changing the name of the surface from “clay court” to “Nadal court”! Instead of saying, “So-and-so is really great on clay”, it should be, “So-and-so is really great on Nadal-dust”… 🙂
Yes I think having got La Decima, he should now aim for a dozen.
Guess I couldnt have been anymore wrong. Atleast it wouldnt have made any difference if I went big on Wawrinka to take minimum 1 set, which I would have done anyways if I didnt go for the jackpot. Congrats to Nadal.
Did you get your old job back?
Some joker was saying Wawrinka would win. When I and be were saying it would be a straight set. Wawrinka has power but only when he is allowed play.
Never in doubt
Personally IMO it would be preferable if Rafa were to skip the grass season. The change from clay to grass is tough for all players and even more so for Rafa after his herculean effort culminating in la Decima at RG. He should take some well earned R & R time and prepare for the American hard court swing.
I would be nice if he could win one more Wimby and DEFINITELY one more AO!! I will be soooo over the moon if Rafa finally gets the double career slam!! He absolutely deserves it, and he was so close, choops!!! I really dont care about RG anymore, leave it for the rest!! 10 of 15 GS to one tourney may dent his legacy if he cannot win any others!!!
I agree with you, Monalisa. I think Rafa could potentially make himself the undisputed GOAT if he can win some more non-RG majors. However, Personally, I think the whole debate is ridiculous because it is so subjective and there are so many factors and ways to judge how someone can individually be “greater” than the other top guys. I, personally, find it much more interesting to look at it as a five-man “Mt. Rushmore of Men’s Tennis”. For me, and I think most people, that Mt. Rushmore consists of Big 3, Sampras, and Laver. Then I consider there be a second-tier level of all-time greats that consists of Borg, Agassi, Lendl, Connors, and maybe Emerson (there are others who I believe are worthy of that second-tier such as McEnroe and Wilander, although I prefer the other guys).
Dont want to get ahead of myself, but i think if Rafa wins another GS away from clay it would be either the AO or USO, IMO Federer and Murray will be the favorites at SW19 ….
Alison,
I agree. I think it will either be the USO or the AO.
I also think you are correct that Fed and Murray are the favorites for Wimby. I believe that Murray did well to get to the semis at RF and fought hard in a five setter. That is his best result by far. He has set himself up well to make a run at Wimby. We know Fed took time off to be ready for Wimby.
Murray did well to get to the semis at RG! *
An incredible performance from Nadal, to cap an unbelievable clay court season. It’s a shame Stanimus couldn’t turn up to make it a match, but it was a joy to watch Rafa play today, and even as I was moaning that Stan couldn’t raise his game I was applauding Rafa’s shots that were making it so difficult for him.
Well done to all who called it correctly, and an extra congratulations to those who profited (and commiserations to those who didn’t).
See you on the grass!
See you next time, it was good fun.
2008, 2010: Nadal wins French Open without losing a set, wins #Wimbledon
2017: Nadal wins French Open without losing a set…?
…..it would be great!!
Why the f did the rain come in 2012 and make him lose a set 😀 😀
I will not count Rafa out at Wimby! Personally, I think Roger took too much time out even if is his best surface and esp at his age, Andy is playing well but i think he is not as consistent as he was last year! We really cant call it at Wimby this year. Who would have thought that Novak would go down to Theim! I will just wait and see how Rafa performs in the opening rounds. There is nothing to suggest who will win and who wont! But I cant see Roger making it past wk 1, there are a lot of good and hungry players now wanting to claw to the top, plus many dark horses. It will be tough for all involved, no doubt!!
I am not conceding Wimbledon to anyone. I am not about to call Fed the winner even before the draw us out. I am not saying that Murray is all the way back. But he has definitely looked much better at RG.
Fed did what he felt was necessary to be ready for Wimby. It’s not for me to say he took too much time off. We will have to see how he looks when he starts playing.
I am not going to get carried away with the idea of Rafa winning Wimby. He just won his 10th RG. That is a great achievement. I am not counting on him winning Wimby. If it should happen, I will be thrilled for him. But I am not going to put expectations on Rafa.
Even Uncle Toni said that they have to see how Rafa’s knees are on the grass. The first week is difficult with the slippery grass. It will also depend on the draw. If Rafa can get through the first week, then who knows.
I actually don’t think Novak will be a contender. I don’t think he is in a place to contend for a slam right now. He has issues to sort out after that loss to Thiem.
I am just going to enjoy Rafa’s victory today and let the future take care of itself.
Can’t see Roger making it past week one?! He is a favorite to win it!! Maybe THE favorite!! You must be trolling lmao. That’s like saying I can’t see Rafa winning the French next year. Gee whiz?
Agree with Benny!…Oh!not about trolling!Nope!..but,about other things…in my mind..i’m already put Rog and Andy as the fav…with Roger maybe will end up with trophy in his hands once again…
I don’t think anyone could seriously think that Fed won’t get through week one. But I am not ready to pencil him in as the winner. Murray should be a contender. Then there are the dark horses. Kyrgios could do well. There is Raonic and Zverev. We could have some surprises.
Tremedous milestones!!!
A La Decima of a ATP 500,ATP 1000 and a grand slam. That is some consistency which means he has wiped the floor with players of different styles, big servers, grinders, experienced players, newcomers with nothing to lose, fellow hall of famers and has not been prone to upsets. He has been winning these tournaments when he had weak serve and also when the movement is not as great as it was in his initial years.
If it were not for other hall of famers like Novak and Roger, he may well have a la decima at Rome as well! :O
UPDATED career all-time prize money:
1. Djokovic, $108,721,251
2. Federer, $103,990,195
3. Nadal, $85,924,269
4. Serena, $84,463,131
How comes Novak’s #1!! Really surprising!! I dont understand it!! Is that caused by inflation?
and also the fact that the GS have raised the money at the GS events and Novak is almost always at the business end of the tournaments lately
It’s a combination of inflation and tournaments raising their prize money in general. Novak has won so many big titles in the past few years, and prize money has increased so much at those big tournaments in recent years. Since Rafa and Fed won all but one of their respective slams before Wimbledon 2014, they haven’t been able to cash in on the super high prize money in the last three years. In that three year time frame, Novak has won 6 slams and had 2 runner-ups, and won countless masters titles including 6 IW/Miami titles which has huge prize money.
Thanks Kevin & VR, I almost dropped to the floor!! Seems unfair, lol, but c’est lavi!!
They both have more GS than Novak and Rafa is tied on Masters! But it is so much more though, but I am almost forgetting that Rafa has taken almost two years off, so yes, it makes sense now!!
Nice to see you back monalisa. Wonder why RITB did not join us. At least just once to celebrate this happy day which has come our way after a loooong wait with umpteen heartbreaks.
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2017/06/rafael-nadals-10th-french-open-title-was-his-most-masterful-yet/66834/
Surprising analysis from Trigor! Lol!!
Tignor, like several commentators today,. cited Rafa winning his first RG at the age of 18. He beat Roger Federer in the 2005 SF on his 19th birthday and went on to clinch his first Slam title 2 days later. Incidentally it was also his maiden appearance at RG.
I noticed the inaccuracy too.
Congratulations to Nadal and his fans. Fully deserved it. He could still win at least 1 title at RG, but this was the most important right now – the 10th. Anything else is a bonus. The double digit is unique on this planet. I hope Roger wins Wimbledon, but I don’t think he’s the favourite. For me he has the same chances he had at Australian Open. This time a little more pressure, considering people have expectations after his excellent recover and dominating 1st quarter of the season. Who knows the way Raonic will play…
If Nole and Muzz were their dominating selves as they were last year at this time, I would predict the Wimbledon draw with Fed , Rafa and Wawa in bottom half ( I assume seeding would be 1 Muzz, 2 Rafa, 3 Wawa, 4 Nole but not sure how the special grass formula could impact the seeding) and Muzz and Nole in top half. Now we know Muzz is playing well but lacks stamina. Nole too is playing well but maybe due to domestic issues could tank a match at any time. Also while Rafa’s recent record at Wimbly is dismal, there is talk of him making a push for the title here. So not sure how these new wrinkles could affect the rigging team’s view of a favorable draw for Federer.
I’m not worried about Roger’s seeding at all. Right now I would favor him against all the top four players in the world on grass given the lackluster form of Nole, the good H2H with Andy and Stan, and his win streak this year against Rafa that would probably continue if they played on grass. I’m more worried about guys like Kyrgios Raonic who are big hitters and are good on the grass. Especially Kyrgios.
Benny, you forget there’s a Cilic who gave Fed nightmare at Wimbledon last year!
Yes I did which I’m pretty annoyed with myself because Cilic is one of my favorite players. ?
Mary, it’s at this point -or at least at some point *before* the draw is made- that you should have a hypothesis about what would count as a favourable or unfavourable draw for the top players, Fed in particular. Then, after the draw is made, we can test your hypothesis. It won’t show anything conclusive, of course, but at least we’ll know whether the draw is confirming or disconfirming evidence for your hypothesis.
I don’t make predictions like you based on Joe conjecture or Joe Main fallacy. Many things have changed so I am not sure they will stick to the old model of Rafa and Djok in the same half which they have followed since 2011 whenever these two were not 1 and 2. Once again there is a shift in the big 4 as there was in 2011. So we have to see what the rigging team’s view is. Unlike you, I don’t think my view of what is favorable is what everybody thinks is favorable. I do not have enough data to predict what the rigging team thinks is favorable in these changed circumstances. I gave my opinion for Wimbly. It is not a prediction.
So you can maintain your view that the draw is rigged, without having to produce any hypothesis about what would count as rigging that might be confirmed or disconfirmed.
How convenient.
I think if Fed gets through week 1, he will be the favorite for the title. At Wimbledon, the first week is like a crap shoot where somebody with a mindless big game can win over one of the big 4. So a favorable draw is very important. As Fed is likely to get a favorable draw, he is likely to win Wimbly unless Sir Andy recovers his stamina. Zverev, Khachanov,Chung and Thiem are still to prove their mettle but they could surprise us with a run to the trophy. Kyrgios is not consistent. But he too is a contender. Dimitrov or Raonic have a chance if they are in form. Stan is always a contender in a slam though he hasn’t particularly impressed on grass but clearly he wants to. Rafa and Nole are question marks because of knees and marital discord respectively. But other than these players, I don’t see anyone else in with a chance( famous last words?). The rest of the players could cause an upset or two but I highly doubt that any one of them could win 7 matches.
Chung and Khachanov can not make runs to the trophy. Zverev and Kyrgios can. Thiem doesn’t have a great grass court game but he could do some damage I guess.
There’s Cilic whom I think will do damage on grass. He’s doing well on clay this season and may carry that momentum to grass. I have him going deep on grass, maybe SF or even final at Wimbledon, if Murray or Fed fails to do so.
My wish is for Rafa to continue with his winning momentum into the grass season, has a kind draw at Wimbledon and who knows, may get to win Wimbledon again, and ties Borg for three channel slams. I hope my wish does come true, for Rafa.
But if the rigging team wishes to preserve Fed’s legacy, Rafa will get the likes of Zverev, Kyrgios, Isner, Anderson….
I agree about Cilic. He could be a contender. I forgot about him and Nishikori probably because they have disappointed so often after 2014 that my mind refuses to take them seriously.
They can’t rig the draw that way, it depends on their respective rankings. Also, Rafa has his improved serve to help him this time on grass. He’s no longer that nervy when it comes to serving his second serve.
Rafa’s ROS will always be there, his big FH too, he has to hit it flatter though on grass (he hits as high as 4000 or 4200 rpm in the FO final if I remember correctly!). Rafa’s BH has improved tremendously too, esp that BHDTL. As long as Rafa has the desire and determination, he’s good enough to go far at Wimbledon with the sharpened tools he now has, imo.
haha, I did not mean he will get all of them. He would get players like that in his quarter.
And if he doesn’t? Does a lower ranked big hitter like Rosol (not necessarily Rosol himself) count as evidence that Rafa’s draw is deliberately being made tougher?
Also, what’s the ultimately goal of the riggers in your view?
1. To maximize Roger’s chances of winning?
2. To minimize Rafa’s chances of catching his slam tally? (so make Rafa’s draw maximally difficult)
3. To maximize revenue? (surely leaving open the possibility of a Fedal final is a no-brainer, meaning relatively easy draws for both).
I’m not sure you can get a definite answer here, it all comes down to ‘the draw riggers know what they want’ so that virtually any resulting draw leads to a conclusion of ‘rigging’. A good illustration of circular reasoning in action.
Seeing as there are a ton of big hitters at Wimbledon, it’s almost inevitable that one or more will be in Rafa’s quarter, this will be considered ‘evidence’ of rigging. In the unlikely event there isn’t one in there, it may be presumed that the fixers did not consider it to be worth rigging Wimby against Rafa, or something.
If Fed gets big hitters in his half of the quarter i.e, one eighth , I would say riggers aren’t favoring him. Generally dear Fed gets an old player ranked 100 or worse in the first two rounds.
“”Any way you want to look at these, there is significant evidence here that these did not come from a random draw,”
— Dr. Andrew Swift, past chairman of the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics in Sports and an assistant mathematics professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha
http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely
#CovefeIsEverywhere
#ScovilleJenkins
Nishikori is not good on grass, and I’ll count him out on grass as he’s just so inconsistent.
Yeah I’m an idiot for forgetting Cilic lol. Cilic will definitely be a contender.
Cilic said he wished to be in top five this season, judging by how he plays so far, building up momentum for the quicker surfaces, and with Djoko still finding his way around, I think Cilic may get his wish this season.
I could see Andy Rafa and Roger in top three but maybe in another order perhaps then Stan at 4 and Cilic at 5
Memory in sports is so short. No one is even talking of Nole whereas last year at this time he was holding all four slam titles and looked a lock for year end # 1. Everyone had taken it for granted that he would surpass Rafa’s gs haul and discussions were about whether he could surpass Fed. He looked invincible and now he is being written off. If he does manage to sort out his domestic issues, I am sure he will win the titles some posters here require to prove he is back. But his game is already back so anyone who counts him out does so at his peril. His loss to Thiem was clearly a tank job. Why did he do it. Only he and his confidantes have the answers.
Lots of people are talking about Nole…..just not in a good way
Djoko didn’t tank the job, he simply lost hope after losing the second set. Djoko is clearly not back yet, and it’s not titles we are talking about, it’s the way he plays; he should be beating players he should beat, esp when he has a 5-0 lead over. Even if he were to lose, at least fight to lose with a more respectable score line; a Djoko without his fighting spirit is certainly not back yet; i.e. not back to his previous good level.
Monalisa says on JUNE 11, 2017 AT 5:33 PM: “I was hoping they would have given Rafa an honourary trophy…”
.
They did. Rafa was given a full-size replica of the French Open trophy, with all 10 of his Roland Garros titles engraved. Uncle Toni presented him with it (Winners are normally given a miniature replica to take home):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCKmIRLXYAEMo9K.jpg
Toni holds the original Coupe des Mousquetaires while Rafa poses with its copy:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCKmKsrXkAEEVO-.jpg