French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ruud

Even though Rafael Nadal is 111-3 lifetime at the French Open and has captured the title 13 times, nothing about the 2022 tournament felt like a sure thing for him heading into the fortnight.

Because of a rib injury sustained in Indian Wells, Nadal had played only two clay-court tournaments prior to arriving in Paris. He won neither, succumbing to Carlos Alcaraz in Madrid before another injury–this time his chronic foot issue–plagued him in a Rome loss at the hands of Denis Shapovalov. The Roland Garros draw ceremony piled on the problems, putting Nadal in the top half along with Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev.

There are problems no more for the King of Clay. He has advanced to his 14th French Open final, taking out the top-ranked Djokovic in the process. That’s not to say it has been easy. In addition to getting past the top seed in a fourth-set tiebreaker, Nadal required five sets to outlast Felix Auger-Aliassime in the round of 16 and he did not even get through two sets with Zverev despite playing for three hours and 13 minutes on Friday (the German was forced to retire after rolling over on his right ankle with Nadal leading, 7-6(8), 6-6).

Finally there is an air of inevitability when it comes to title No. 14 on the terre battue.

That’s not a knock on Sunday’s opponent, Casper Ruud. It’s just the nature of Nadal. He is an amazing 21-8 lifetime in Grand Slam finals, including 13-0 at Roland Garros. Not once has he been extended to five sets in a French Open final and six of the 13 have resulted in straight-set beatdowns.

It’s also true that Ruud should be an extremely favorable matchup for Nadal. The type of player that generally gives the Spaniard trouble is tall, big hitter who can hit balls in his strike zone and serve huge–keeping points as short as possible. That’s why it wasn’t a surprise to see Zverev make their semifinal so competitive and it’s why Marin Cilic would arguably have been a bigger threat in the championship match (Cilic lost to Ruud in four sets in the semis).

Casper Ruud

Ruud is none of those things–although he is an outstanding clay-court player in his own right. In fact, the 23-year-old Norwegian plays a bit like Nadal (as you might expect given how much time he has spent at the Rafael Nadal Academy in Mallorca). His forehand is right up there with Nadal’s among the heaviest in the game and his movement and consistency make up for not having an overpowering serve. That’s all well and good, but trying to beat Nadal at his own game at Roland Garros probably isn’t a recipe for success.

For the most part Ruud has been taking down more powerful opponents, such as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Lorenzo Sonego, Hubert Hurkacz, Holger Rune, and Cilic. Only once en route to the final did the world No. 8 win in straight sets (round two against Emil Ruusuvuori) and he needed five sets to beat Sonego.

“Casper is a professional,” Nadal said. “He has I think a very good character to play tennis; he’s very relaxed, humble. He’s always in a positive mood about learning. I think in the academy we were able to help him a little bit during [that] period of time.

“But another thing is, as I always say, I like to see [a good person] achieving his dreams. I’m happy for him. I’m happy for his mom (and) dad; I know them very well. They are a super family and great people. I am super happy when I see these great people having success.

“So for me, (it) is not a big surprise. Casper is one of the candidates [to win] every clay-court event that he’s playing. He’s one of the clear favorites, no?”

Well, not in this particular match.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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32 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ruud

  1. Rafa has said he wants to play wimby and he will try a treatment this week ( said 2 injections on foot with radio-frequency- whatever that means now ) and if it works, he will play. He said no daily pain killers and numbing the nerve as in RG.

    BTW if the foot is numb, how can u feel sensation n play? I never understood this ever.. I think it’s more abt blocking the nerve pain and not numbing the whole foot.

    • My sister texted me and said that Rafa will try a new treatment and if it works he will play Wimbledon. But I didn’t know anything about it.

      • I don’t see how they can numb the whole foot. Then you can’t feel it when you step on it. I assume that they numbed the nerve. He also was taking pain pills. I don’t know how he got through it.

        I think the reason why there was so much more attention for the AO title was because it also meant the double career slam. It was also the first time anyone broke the tie and got to 21. The way in which he won, coming back after six months with hardly any match play and coming from behind from two sets down which has never been done there and also that Rafa had not been able to win again there after 2009. think all that created the hoopla. It made for a lot of drama and history. I think the win here was also extraordinary because of all the problems leading up to it. The rib injury, which played havoc with the preparation for the clay season, missing the first two tournaments, the foot flaring up in Rome, the draw from hell. Having to play a night match starting at 9:00 pm and going until after 1:00 am. Then the match with Zverev where they closed the roof and it was like a sauna in there.

        For myself, I really could care less if there is a fuss on Twitter or not. Every time Rafa wins a slam now it’s history. He is rewriting the history books. Rafa has so much courage and determination. To go through all that so he could play, is something else.

        I would so love to see him play Wimbledon one more time. I hope this new treatment will work.

      • I much prefer that than the pain killers and numbing bcoz these could have side effects. I much rather the precision type treatment.

        And yet many out there want to say he faked injury to give himself chance to win here!! Since when Rafa needs gamesmanship to win at RG 😂😂🤣🤣😂

      • My sister said it was ablation. They do that with A-Fib. They cut off the electrical part of the heart that is not working properly. Maybe they can fund a way to go around the nerve. Rafa said they are doing it next week. If it works then he said he will keep going. Otherwise he said they would have to discuss surgery. We all know what that would mean😢

  2. BTW after AO Twitter erupted, there was outpouring of praises for what rafa achieved and did.

    Not even half now after RG.

    Maybe as the RG final was a damp squib and AO was comeback for the ages. Also as he was the first one to cross 20 there and break the deadlock and now it’s considered ‘ okay 1 more ‘

    I did not even see a huge romantic letter by Roger yet like he sent after AO and when rafa touched 20.

      • Ramara,you are right! Rafa winning another FO title is simply not newsworthy and hasn’t been for many years. It’s business as usual and the casual sports fan doesn’t know about Rafa’s precarious health.
        And the silly draw, which produced a final which was not so much a contest but just a formal part of the coronation ceremony, did not help.

  3. If rafa plays wimby, he and Novak will be seeded 1 and 2. This means only a final meet is possible . I want a rafa Novak wimby final.

    Novak is the fav but will have all the pressure. Rafa can play freely and the crowd will be on his side. We never know what will happen, he may well cause an upset.

    Please Rafa play wimby n give yourself a chance

  4. So proud of our Rafa! So proud to be a Rafan! He made as so happy today! I am so glad this was not a grueling final! He so deserves an easy final!

    Rafa is such an inspiration! Great athlete, beautiful human being! I wish he recovers from his foot issue and that the new treatment works! I think Wimby is desperate for Rafa! It would be great to see him on grass again! Well, grass is the least demanding on his body! He just needs to S&V more and we know how he can be good at it! 🙂

    Vamos Champ! We love you! ❤️❤️❤️

  5. Ljubicic, Roger’s coach, thinks they should rename Chatrier after Nadal. I’ve never been in favor of changing the name of something that’s already been named to honor someone. What do you guys think?

  6. No Roger, no Serena, no rafa , no points – wimby will be a squib.

    They need rafa at all costs.. I am sure special phone calls will happen to request him. He is the only big draw that can join and play.

    And under no circumstance ,I want Novak to get wimby without rafa in the draw. He needs to earn it the hard way. Except Felix and mateo ( who now is injured ) ,nobody can even play on grass

  7. Novak has never drawn kyrgios ever at a slam…rafa has drawn him atleast 4 times till date.

    BTW now I think the frosting between Novak and kyrgios has gone after ao episode where he supported him.

  8. Shapo can play on grass; Cilic too! The way Cilic played this FO, if he could continue to play that way, he will be a threat at Wimbledon!

  9. Cilic had reached the Wimbledon final in 2017 losing it to Fed (he had a foot blister and so lost badly in the final). He had also won the title at Queen’s. He lost narrowly (in five sets) to Djoko at Wimbledon one year.

    If he continues to serve like the way he did at the FO this year, he stand a chance, especially when Djoko isn’t playing really well this year by his own standard.

  10. He was in tears in that final just like Zverev- more at missing the once in a life opportunity than the pain I would say.

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