French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ruud

Even though Rafael Nadal is 111-3 lifetime at the French Open and has captured the title 13 times, nothing about the 2022 tournament felt like a sure thing for him heading into the fortnight.

Because of a rib injury sustained in Indian Wells, Nadal had played only two clay-court tournaments prior to arriving in Paris. He won neither, succumbing to Carlos Alcaraz in Madrid before another injury–this time his chronic foot issue–plagued him in a Rome loss at the hands of Denis Shapovalov. The Roland Garros draw ceremony piled on the problems, putting Nadal in the top half along with Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev.

There are problems no more for the King of Clay. He has advanced to his 14th French Open final, taking out the top-ranked Djokovic in the process. That’s not to say it has been easy. In addition to getting past the top seed in a fourth-set tiebreaker, Nadal required five sets to outlast Felix Auger-Aliassime in the round of 16 and he did not even get through two sets with Zverev despite playing for three hours and 13 minutes on Friday (the German was forced to retire after rolling over on his right ankle with Nadal leading, 7-6(8), 6-6).

Finally there is an air of inevitability when it comes to title No. 14 on the terre battue.

That’s not a knock on Sunday’s opponent, Casper Ruud. It’s just the nature of Nadal. He is an amazing 21-8 lifetime in Grand Slam finals, including 13-0 at Roland Garros. Not once has he been extended to five sets in a French Open final and six of the 13 have resulted in straight-set beatdowns.

It’s also true that Ruud should be an extremely favorable matchup for Nadal. The type of player that generally gives the Spaniard trouble is tall, big hitter who can hit balls in his strike zone and serve huge–keeping points as short as possible. That’s why it wasn’t a surprise to see Zverev make their semifinal so competitive and it’s why Marin Cilic would arguably have been a bigger threat in the championship match (Cilic lost to Ruud in four sets in the semis).

Casper Ruud

Ruud is none of those things–although he is an outstanding clay-court player in his own right. In fact, the 23-year-old Norwegian plays a bit like Nadal (as you might expect given how much time he has spent at the Rafael Nadal Academy in Mallorca). His forehand is right up there with Nadal’s among the heaviest in the game and his movement and consistency make up for not having an overpowering serve. That’s all well and good, but trying to beat Nadal at his own game at Roland Garros probably isn’t a recipe for success.

For the most part Ruud has been taking down more powerful opponents, such as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Lorenzo Sonego, Hubert Hurkacz, Holger Rune, and Cilic. Only once en route to the final did the world No. 8 win in straight sets (round two against Emil Ruusuvuori) and he needed five sets to beat Sonego.

“Casper is a professional,” Nadal said. “He has I think a very good character to play tennis; he’s very relaxed, humble. He’s always in a positive mood about learning. I think in the academy we were able to help him a little bit during [that] period of time.

“But another thing is, as I always say, I like to see [a good person] achieving his dreams. I’m happy for him. I’m happy for his mom (and) dad; I know them very well. They are a super family and great people. I am super happy when I see these great people having success.

“So for me, (it) is not a big surprise. Casper is one of the candidates [to win] every clay-court event that he’s playing. He’s one of the clear favorites, no?”

Well, not in this particular match.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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WWW: Nadal vs. Ruud?

123 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ruud

  1. again which rafa shows up. if Rafa against wawrinka when he won 10th or level againest novak in QF, then in 3. if Level like FAA match then May be 5

    • Felix has more weapons including his big serve. He has been in the late stages of the last 3 slams with match point against Med at AO.
      Ruud has never been in the late stages of a slam before. All his tournament wins are at 250 level. He did make the final at Miami where he was soundly beaten by Alcaraz.

  2. Rafa in 3 or 4. I hope! Nothing has gone as expected in the mens’ draw! Unlike the women’s which for ONCE has gone as expected. Big grats to Iga!

  3. @Ricky,

    Well, yes, tall big serving/hitting players do tend to “trouble” Rafa. Otoh, there’s Diego Schwartzman who is none of those things but does trouble Rafa on occasion. Or for that matter, Novax, who isn’t particularly tall at 6’2″ but certainly does give Rafa fits!

  4. Hoping it’s a better match than the women’s final, but yes, Rafa in 3. It’s all so new for Ruud and Rafa has such vast experience. Besides, does anyone play those clutch moments better than Rafa? Not Ruud anyway………yet!

  5. All I want is for Rafa to be efficient, serving well, deep ground strokes and good bp conversions when opportunity comes. Now that he is in the final he can continue to give his all knowing that there are no more matches left! Good luck with #22!! Vamos, Rafa!! 💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽🤗

  6. Ruud has about a 35% chance of winning and the variance in their performances is probably about 10%.

    If Nadal has a slightly off day and Ruud a good day, Ruud can win.

    I’m doubtful Nadal can win 3-0 on paper as a 36 yr old against a player entering his prime.

    Have a nice day.

  7. Ruud seams be peaking at the right time and Nadal might have peaked too early and the older you get, the shorter your peak periods are.

  8. Rafa just needs to be healthy, the foot, please Be fine and no acting up! Under the roof unfortunately the quality of tennis goes down! The humidity creates inhumane conditions, guess it’s the main reason for lousy tennis of both Zverev and Rafa! I blame the conditions for Zverev getting injured as well! It is just so plain wrong to play RG outside clay court GS under the stupid roof!
    Vamos Champ!

  9. Lot of radio stations and 3 publications spread fake news today that rafa has asked for additional press conference tomm to announce something important. His agent Benito denied it…why are people just spreading rumors this way. Sick..

  10. Seeing the whole Moya interview in thread above, somehow I got impression they are taking rudd very seriously and Moya keeps saying he knows rafa very well…it’s almost as if they sense there can be danger n it won’t be easy

    God please help rafa play his best and win this it’s way too close now …give him good health and give him all the strength

    • I have faith in his doctor and in Rafa’s powers of recovery and focus. He has had a really tough road in the last few matches!

    • Unbelievable! Comes out brilliant and then plays utter rubbish…
      Ruud doesn’t have a great ros so he just has to get it over the net!
      Ok he breaks again
      Now hold!

  11. I find Rafa”s balls landing too short but I suppose he knows what’s he’s doing out there!!

    I think most of the commies r not too excited u can almost hear the exasperation in their voices! Like, gosh, not this Rafa again!!! Possibly to win ANOTHER GS?!!!! Artrrggggh!! 😂🤣🤣🤣🤣

  12. First set Rafa!!

    Match a bit tame but I’ll take it. I’m not asking for any drama here as long as Rafa wins!

    Commie Ms suggesting that Rafa walk away if he wins here! I mean who r they to suggest Rafa to retire or not?! Sigh!

  13. Rafa squandered bps AGAIN!! Ruud beginning to play better, Rafa needs to be careful here!! He plays lousy when not pushed!!! Hope he is able hold here!!

  14. I was about to ask y am I the only one here? 😄

    No, Rafa looks bored out there! He’s not being pushed yet so he’s a bit flat right now. But he needs to step it up!!

  15. U c what I’m saying? Rafa needs to be pushed in order to play his best tennis! Now he’s broken, not surprised!!

  16. I am here. But I am very frustrated with the missed break chances and now Rafa double faulting away the break. He is letting this guy in the match.

    I think the match with Novak took a lot out of him. He said it was a brutal match.

  17. I think he looks fine it’s just that Rafa loves drama. I’m not saying he might be a bit low in energy after all he had a brutal draw and is 36, but he needs to try to focus a bit more so he can avoid prolonging march.

    Just watch, if he wins second set he’ll play a bit better! Rafa just loves drama 🤣😂🤣🤣

  18. Rafa has had the most brutal draw. Considering that he did not have much preparation because of the rib injury and now the draw from hell, I am not surprised that he has struggled. The conditions with the roof closed in the semifinal match were terrible.

    It’s been a war of attrition at RG this year.

    • Rafa”s return is off the charts today!! Give him that!! He has the best return stats in the tournament I think!!

      Second set!! VAMOS!!

    • I think Rafa deserves an easy match in the final after all those tough marches and especially considering how easy the WTA match was and they get the same cheque!! As far as I’m concerned Rafa”s already played 2 finals before getting here!!

      • From your keyboard to …. whoever’s listening out there! 🙂 Just peeked in to see the score. Very good news at the beginning of set 3. Vamos Rafa!!

        I would have watched but I’m in the USA, NBC has the match rights and OLD JOHNNY MAC is on the call. I just can’t stand him any more. Last time I caught a bit of his so-called commentary he was going on about needing a time clock for the second serve. I mean, like on and on and on. I think he’s demented. With any luck Tennis Channel’s repeat will have Jim Courier and probably Jason Goodall, although I’d much prefer Martina Navratilova. She’s among the best commentators as well as best player.

      • Ummm, is Novax even favored to enter the USA? Wouldn’t he have to be vaccinated?

        I think Rafa will make a decision re Wimbly after he rests a bit and sees how he recovers.

  19. I’m hearing so much talk about Rafa”s retirement all of a sudden!! It seems like they want Rafa to just go away bcoz like he’s winning too much, lol!!

    Is he playing Wimby or is he? All of a sudden Rafa playing Wimby is a curious concern while in previous years he has never been the favorite!! So can’t understand what all the hooblahoo is about?!

  20. Yesss!
    #14
    #22
    💚💚💛💛💛💛💙💙💙💙💔💛💛💛💛💜💜💜💜💜💜💓💓💓💓💓💓

  21. I knew Rafa wouldn’t fall to the floor!! He is so awesome that way!! Taking away from his triumph out of respect for Ruud! 🤗 That’s my Rafa!! Vamos!!

    • Yeah, I like Casper too but the good thing he’s been to a final so that’s always a good thing. He’s now had the experience and going forward he will have a clearer idea on how he should improve his game. It’s a big plus for him and Coco especially given that they’re both still young!

      Vamos, Rafa!! 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆

  22. The result was never in doubt.

    It was just always the case of who Rafa would beat in the final. If Rafa is unseeded at RG, he will still take the trophy home so it doesn’t matter where he is seeded because he will beat everyone in his path in no particular order.

  23. So happy for Rafa!!! This RG was his toughest in forever! Sorry about the bagel, Casper. Hope he’s ok?

    I’m waiting for TC to replay the match and hopefully get Courier’s commentary. Cannot stand JMac any more. He’s gotten just awful.

    • They need to get rid of JMac. He is insufferable.

      This was by far the toughest RG.

      I will watch the replay on the tennis channel. Jim Courier I’d much better.

      Rafa is equivocating about whether he will be back. But this moment is very special.
      🏆🥇 💝

  24. Yes, Rafa wins the final and his 14th FO title! Vamos!

    Thank God, Rafa has won the final without any drama! Frankly, I’m more worried about this final than his other earlier matches vs the other three top ten players.

    After seeing how the humid conditions could affect him physically in the SF, I’m very worried that the final is played under the roof with the same humid conditions. I’m worried that his foot may have problem, or he may get injured, after seeing how badly Zverev got injured when he fell.

    I’m glad is over now and Rafa has won the trophy again! Congrats to Rafa, and commiseration to Ruud; Ruud is still young and will have plenty of chances to win here in the future.

  25. That was very weak from Ruud and not worthy of a top 10 ranking IMO. Where was the fight and desperation to turn it into a gruelling battle.

    • Maybe bcoz it was his first time and a bit overwhelming for him?! I mean how meant players have been at the end of Rafa”s topspin and didn’t fair any better? Roger, Ferrer, Stan?!! U think they didn’t fight?!!

        • Yes and we are allowed to disagree with your opinion!

          There is a reason no one has beaten Rafa in an RG final. If it was easy others would have done it. Why don’t you get out there and try? Maybe then you will have an appreciation for how tough it is.

          • Is ND anonymous by any chance?😉😉
            Anon was talking his normal bilge before the match saying Ruud was a better clay court player than Zverev which must be why Zverev has won clay court masters and Ruud has never got close.

    • That’s what I suspected all along during this FO, I guess that’s the only way to prevent the nasty foot issue from flaring up during his matches.

      Rafa was asked several times during his pressers about his foot issue, and he said he would only talk about it after the tournament ended. So, here he is, giving details on what was done to keep his foot fit for his matches.

  26. Wow, I remember studying for my GCSE O level exams when Rafa won his first RG title. Zidane was there to hand him the trophy and I remember telling my family ‘look, it’s Zidane giving the Trophy to him, it’s Zindane!’ So much has changed but this man is still winning RG. I don’t have the words. I anticipated an easy match today and it was but honestly I didn’t expect him to be here in this final given what has happened over the last 2 months. I think this was Rafa’s best RG victory!

    So, it looks like Wimbledon is going to be zero points? If so, We will have Medvedev as World no.1, Zverev as world no.2 and Rafa as world no.3? Rafa will just need to have decent showings at USO and other masters to get no.1. If Wimby is zero points, he is surely getting it.

    No idea how he’s going to manage but he’ll perhaps take a break. Scary to read stuff like this:

    “My worst moment in this tournament was after my 2R match against Moutet. I couldn’t walk anymore. I had to have my foot anesthetized to be able to keep going. A special thanks to my doctor.”

  27. How many injections did you get in your foot during the tournament?

    Rafa Nadal: “You better don’t want to know!”

  28. I hope all those injections don’t have some longer term effect on his overall health?! If Rafa doesn’t play Wimby I won’t be mad, though Wimby would be better to play that’s USO

  29. Congratulations Rafa! Absolutely over the moon! I just he returns to Wimbledon and continues playing for as long as possible!

  30. I think Rafa will play at Wimbledon, because if he skips it, that means he stops playing matches for at least six weeks or even longer before playing at Canada. I’m afraid his foot may act up again once he starts playing after stopping for so long.

    Perhaps, Rafa could just be a bit relaxed at Wimbledon, not stressing his foot, but just hits freely, and see how far he can go, and how his foot reacts during the matches on grass.

    • It must be very difficult to play with a numb foot!
      It makes his achievements here all the more astonishing.
      This is one of his greatest victories.

  31. Yeah, honestly I think from here on now Rafa is in a good place. He seriously has nothing left to prove and can play his tennis on his own terms, no pressure. He is aware of the limitations of his body and know how far he can push himself given the circumstances. If he plays Wimby, win or lose, it’s still a victory especially at this stage of his career. With that being said, Right now, I can honestly relax when he plays. Everyone knows he’s on the last leg of his career while at the same time still being a phenomenal player!! You have made us proud Rafa, VAMOS!!

  32. Apparently Rafa has played multiple times in the past with anaesthetic in the foot.
    Most notably in the 2008 wimby final!!!!

  33. Rafa has said he wants to play wimby and he will try a treatment this week ( said 2 injections on foot with radio-frequency- whatever that means now ) and if it works, he will play. He said no daily pain killers and numbing the nerve as in RG.

    BTW if the foot is numb, how can u feel sensation n play? I never understood this ever.. I think it’s more abt blocking the nerve pain and not numbing the whole foot.

    • My sister texted me and said that Rafa will try a new treatment and if it works he will play Wimbledon. But I didn’t know anything about it.

      • I don’t see how they can numb the whole foot. Then you can’t feel it when you step on it. I assume that they numbed the nerve. He also was taking pain pills. I don’t know how he got through it.

        I think the reason why there was so much more attention for the AO title was because it also meant the double career slam. It was also the first time anyone broke the tie and got to 21. The way in which he won, coming back after six months with hardly any match play and coming from behind from two sets down which has never been done there and also that Rafa had not been able to win again there after 2009. think all that created the hoopla. It made for a lot of drama and history. I think the win here was also extraordinary because of all the problems leading up to it. The rib injury, which played havoc with the preparation for the clay season, missing the first two tournaments, the foot flaring up in Rome, the draw from hell. Having to play a night match starting at 9:00 pm and going until after 1:00 am. Then the match with Zverev where they closed the roof and it was like a sauna in there.

        For myself, I really could care less if there is a fuss on Twitter or not. Every time Rafa wins a slam now it’s history. He is rewriting the history books. Rafa has so much courage and determination. To go through all that so he could play, is something else.

        I would so love to see him play Wimbledon one more time. I hope this new treatment will work.

      • I much prefer that than the pain killers and numbing bcoz these could have side effects. I much rather the precision type treatment.

        And yet many out there want to say he faked injury to give himself chance to win here!! Since when Rafa needs gamesmanship to win at RG 😂😂🤣🤣😂

      • My sister said it was ablation. They do that with A-Fib. They cut off the electrical part of the heart that is not working properly. Maybe they can fund a way to go around the nerve. Rafa said they are doing it next week. If it works then he said he will keep going. Otherwise he said they would have to discuss surgery. We all know what that would mean😢

  34. BTW after AO Twitter erupted, there was outpouring of praises for what rafa achieved and did.

    Not even half now after RG.

    Maybe as the RG final was a damp squib and AO was comeback for the ages. Also as he was the first one to cross 20 there and break the deadlock and now it’s considered ‘ okay 1 more ‘

    I did not even see a huge romantic letter by Roger yet like he sent after AO and when rafa touched 20.

      • Ramara,you are right! Rafa winning another FO title is simply not newsworthy and hasn’t been for many years. It’s business as usual and the casual sports fan doesn’t know about Rafa’s precarious health.
        And the silly draw, which produced a final which was not so much a contest but just a formal part of the coronation ceremony, did not help.

  35. If rafa plays wimby, he and Novak will be seeded 1 and 2. This means only a final meet is possible . I want a rafa Novak wimby final.

    Novak is the fav but will have all the pressure. Rafa can play freely and the crowd will be on his side. We never know what will happen, he may well cause an upset.

    Please Rafa play wimby n give yourself a chance

  36. So proud of our Rafa! So proud to be a Rafan! He made as so happy today! I am so glad this was not a grueling final! He so deserves an easy final!

    Rafa is such an inspiration! Great athlete, beautiful human being! I wish he recovers from his foot issue and that the new treatment works! I think Wimby is desperate for Rafa! It would be great to see him on grass again! Well, grass is the least demanding on his body! He just needs to S&V more and we know how he can be good at it! 🙂

    Vamos Champ! We love you! ❤️❤️❤️

  37. Ljubicic, Roger’s coach, thinks they should rename Chatrier after Nadal. I’ve never been in favor of changing the name of something that’s already been named to honor someone. What do you guys think?

  38. No Roger, no Serena, no rafa , no points – wimby will be a squib.

    They need rafa at all costs.. I am sure special phone calls will happen to request him. He is the only big draw that can join and play.

    And under no circumstance ,I want Novak to get wimby without rafa in the draw. He needs to earn it the hard way. Except Felix and mateo ( who now is injured ) ,nobody can even play on grass

  39. Novak has never drawn kyrgios ever at a slam…rafa has drawn him atleast 4 times till date.

    BTW now I think the frosting between Novak and kyrgios has gone after ao episode where he supported him.

  40. Shapo can play on grass; Cilic too! The way Cilic played this FO, if he could continue to play that way, he will be a threat at Wimbledon!

  41. Cilic had reached the Wimbledon final in 2017 losing it to Fed (he had a foot blister and so lost badly in the final). He had also won the title at Queen’s. He lost narrowly (in five sets) to Djoko at Wimbledon one year.

    If he continues to serve like the way he did at the FO this year, he stand a chance, especially when Djoko isn’t playing really well this year by his own standard.

  42. He was in tears in that final just like Zverev- more at missing the once in a life opportunity than the pain I would say.

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