French Open final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

Wawa 2Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka will battle for the Roland Garros title on Sunday. Djokovic is going for the career Grand Slam, while Wawrinka aims for his second major trophy.

Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 21st time in their careers when they collide in the French Open final on Sunday afternoon.

Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 17-3, but that is not to say the matchup has been without drama. In fact, their last four Grand Slam meetings (and all of their completed slam showdowns that did not end in retirement) have resulted in five-setters. Djokovic won the most epic of all 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7(5), 12-10 in the 2013 Australian Open semifinals and he prevailed 2-6, 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 later that season in the U.S. Open semis. Wawrinka got some revenge with a 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 9-7 upset at the 2014 Aussie Open before Djokovic returned the favor 7-6(1), 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-0 earlier this year Down Under.

The world No. 1 is 5-1 lifetime against Wawrinka on clay and the only blemish came via first-set retirement at the 2006 Umag event. They have faced each other eight times since their last clash on the slow stuff, which came three years ago in Madrid (Djokovic got the job done 7-6(5), 6-4).

Although Wawrinka is a major champion who has always accounted himself well on red dirt, his appearance in the Roland Garros title match could not have been expected. The ninth-ranked Swiss had lost seven of his previous 15 matches leading up to this fortnight. Suddenly in swashbuckling form, Wawrinka has advanced with wins over Marsel Ilhan, Dusan Lajovic, Steve Johnson, Gilles Simon, Roger Federer, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga–almost all of them in convincing fashion.

Whereas Wawrinka (and Tsonga, among others) benefited from a weak bottom half of the bracket, Djokovic put in the hard yards during a daunting trek through the top half. After disposing of Jarkko Nieminen, Gilles Muller, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Richard Gasquet, the top-ranked Serb made quick 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 work of nine-time champion Rafael Nadal. Andy Murray then pushed Djokovic to five sets in a semifinal spread out over two days, but the favorite survived 6-3, 6-3, 5-7, 5-7, 6-1. He is now 41-2 for the season and has won 28 matches in a row.

As strong as Wawrinka is on clay, the underdog will struggle to hit through Djokovic’s borderline impenetrable defense on a relatively slow court. Djokovic did not have to spend too much energy in his continuation against Murray on Saturday–especially not physically–and the brief scare may actually serve as a wake-up call.

With Djokovic one step away from the career Grand Slam, there will be no stopping him now.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

[polldaddy poll=8915881]

95 Comments on French Open final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

  1. I love me this @senorita over on the Evil blog:

    @senorita Says:
    Dan Says:
    “I do feel bad for Djokovic, he has come so close so many times at Roland Garros,”

    —————
    Djokovic has only made the final 3 times including this one and he’s never taken the final to 5 sets so how has he come close ‘so many times’? When he took Rafa to 5 sets it was in a SF.

    You have to take your hat of to Nadal for winning 9 out of 9 finals.

    June 7th, 2015 at 3:43 pm

    @senorita Says:
    The 3 times Djoko has made it to the RG final he’s lost in 4 sets.

    So much for “deserving” to win RG. No cadeau in pro sports……..

  2. To everyone, who have recommended that Rafa should make changes to his team:

    please send e-mail to Benito Perez-Barbadillo, Rafa’s public relations manager:
    bpb@b1pr.com

    (I have e-mailed him several times about different things)
    🙂

  3. Karma truly is a biatch……..

    Novak used the Bernardes controversy to exact mind games on Nadal. Novak hurled cheap shots at Rafa’s position on the controversy, just like his fans have hurled cheap, ugly insults at Rafa all season long.

    I hope he and his fans are choking mightily on crow.

    • You are entitled to view it this way, of course, but consider:

      we and the whole world knew prior to RG and prior to the rafole quarter final that this is the usual Rafa this spring and that he was going to be vulnerable any particular day, especially against the best player, given his low confidence etc this year
      so no, not hate for Noel for beating rafa at rg

      annoyance with over-fawning of nole, and for vitriol from nole fans, yes, and that is something entirely different

      do you see, or not, abhirf, the enormous biases against rafa from almost all pundits, fans etc since 2005? and you do know that root cause, no?

      • There’s always the 2 sides of a coin.
        Yes, Rafa has been a victim but others also can’t stand the so called ‘overfawning’ for him too.

      • And guess what? All those pathetic Nole fans have suddenly gone quiet all of a sudden on the blogosphere!

        Excuse me while I go look for Bodo………….

      • fans maybe abhirf, but certainly not media, and the ATP/ITF itself.

        The fawning over Federer and, by extension, Nole (in hope that he could be the GOAT saviour) has been beyond nauseating for over a decade now.

      • @Hawkeye,
        being Fans of a particular player robs us from that part.
        It takes someone else not wearing those tainted glasses to see the things more objectively.
        Thats why you can analyse Fed’s or Nole’s reception as being too much which might be true for Roger but definitely not Nole.
        Novak hardly gets the accolades and recognition that he deserves from the media or fans!

    • ^^To be specific, Novak predictably beat Rafa at RG in the quarters. I say predictably because everyone knows Rafa was not yet in form. And oh, that’s all Novak wanted isn’t it, to beat Rafa at RG? No wonder he lost today then, he had already achieved his objective!

      • What novak really would like since 2006 and Roger too since 2005 is to defeat rafa ONCE at RG when Rafa is in good form. Has not happened yet for either, nor for anyone else in 11 tournaments.

        Of course this time it was not Novak’s fault that Rafa was entirely sub-par, nor was it Soderling’s fault that in ’09 Rafa was much too injured.

      • It was so pathetic reading some Nole fans’ comments, insisting Rafa was in form when he lost to Novak in the quarters and today crying that Novak was below par!

  4. I was on the verge of posting that it would be so funny if Djoker passed Rafa to get to the RG final and still didn’t win the title but I didn’t not to jinx the loss. I feel so much better now. I didn’t listen to any of the sickly stuff about Djerk’s prowess prior to the match and listened to the early part of the match on mute.

    #very happy, no?

      • It’s wasn’t that I thought Stan would beat him or even Muzz, just that it would be the ultimate anti climax to beat Rafa and still not win the title.

    • Rafa cautioned everybody before the quarterfinal match against Novak, he said everybody needed to pipe down, the winner of that match was not automatically the winner of the tournament. All the pro-Novak pundits ignored him and anointed Novak the inevitable winner of RG after he beat Rafa.

      It was sickening listening to the commentators after Novak won the first set today, basically treating the match as an annoyance Novak had to endure before his coronation.

      Miew!

  5. I don’t think anyone here gave Stan a chance to win!
    So how exactly can the so called experts and commentators be criticised for the same.

      • Ok.
        So Experts need to be rational. And the rational pick was Nole.
        Everyone mentioned what Stan needed to do and how he can make life difficult for Novak.
        So, all the analysis and commentators were pretty balanced.
        If describing one’s current achievements is not part of professionalism, I don’t know what is.

  6. Djokovic showed really good spirit out there! I don’t like Djokovic to be honest but I respect his abilities , his records and of course the way he shows respects for opponents . He was very gracious in defeat today and we know he usually is.

    • @vamosrafa,
      could you analyse and tell what probably Nole could have done to win it.

      What I can think are just these 2 points :
      1. Hitting more of his inside out FH’s in the 2nd and 3rd set.
      2. Pulled the trigger more on his shots rather than waiting for Wawa to make a mistake.

      • That is a good question abhirf!

        I think when Stan is playing this well, he is a difficult match up for Novak. As I said earlier, one relative weakness in Nole’s game is that he does not have firepower of the highest level and that was exploited by stan today. If he had rafa’s or roger’s forehand, (just saying) he would have ended a lot of points quicker and could have pushed stan back more.

        As you said, Nole should have pulled the trigger more often! definitely. The first set was misleading for him ! He came out with a strategy to let stan be the aggressor and decided to counterpunch (from very deep in the court) with three quarter returns with clever variation in bounce and pace. Stan made more errors in set 1 so that worked, In set 2, stan cleaned up the act and adapted ! He started creating some angles too and went closer to the baseline so Nole had to draw closer to the baseline!

        Novak should have flattened out his groundstrokes a lot more! He was hesitant on his inside out forehands and he should have taken more initiatives.

        The drop shots were often employed but the success rate was just okay. He won some points but on many occasions, when stan chased them, Nole was unable to come up with lobs! His lobs floated long in windy conditions and then he stopped playing drop shots.

        Remember, stan has a one-handed backhand and pushing him wide elicits sliced backhand responses! Those have to be taken care of ! Otherwise, he can end the rally with one backhand.

        I think Novak got the balance wrong a little today. He could have done some things better but Stan is a tough match up for him even though the head to head tells a different story.

      • This match seemed quite stark in contrast to the ones Nole had against Muzz or Rafa. In those matches Nole was always looking to close the points early. The same can’t be said about today.

        The I/O FH looked his key to victory today. He didn’t employ it enough.
        Nole always had trouble handling those sliced BH’s. He has improved upon that considerably, but, it’s definitely not his Forte!

    • ^ Really discredited Stan here.
      Yes his power aided him, but his shot selection especially under pressure was quite immaculate.

      • I have not read the article but I can tell that stan is not being given enough credit! It’s ridiculous that people are just saying stan has power and that helped him get the win. Shot selection from stan was INCREDIBLY good at big moments! When you have a brick wall standing on the other side of the net, shot selection is so important. His backhand DTL appeared just at the right moments and caught novak off guard! Stan is not a mindless hitting machine. He is tactically smart too!

      • Also his serving today.
        I remember, him serving those 1st serves at ~50% for the tournament but amped it up to 67% today when he needed it the most.
        Many would have gone soul searching after losing that 1st set or being 3-0 down in that 4th set. But he didn’t gave in mentally.

      • absolutely! his serving was brilliant . His serving patterns were so versatile too! The display of mental toughness was spectacular.

      • If Bodo really wanted to just point out the power aspect, he could have chosen Cilic’s last years US open win.
        Cilic was smoking almost every shot of his racquet like a bullet. Serves, returns, BH, FH and everything was landing in. It was like he was in a tranced state.

      • Poor Bodo! What’s he do to do after saying not too long ago that Rafa was just keeping the seat warm for Novak as the new King of Clay! LOL!

        He was stupid to say something like that! Now he has to write something to cover his colossal blunder! Too funny! Made my day! 🙂

      • I did read that blog. Bodo is full of it! What gall to say that Stan just won by bludgeoning the ball! Stan did out hit Novak in this match, something you don’t normally see. But it was not just brute power that ruled the day. Stan played smart tennis.

        Vamosrafa has given a great analysis of the dynamics of what went on in the match. I do agree that many times Novak was trying to be defensive and waiting for Stan to just hit a bad shot. They had some really long rallies and Stan went toe-to-toe with Novak, shot for shot. Novak was the one who ended up losing the point. I also thought that the drop shots were not that effective today. Stan seemed to handle them well. It was not just Stan’s power, it was the precision and accuracy of those groundstrokes. His serving was also a big part of this win. To see him fighting off all those break points, well that was something.

        Bodo wouldn’t know anything about guts and heart. When Stan was down 0-40 at one point late in the match, he could have easily folded against the guy who has the best ROS in the game. But he stayed tough and battled hard to hold his serve.

        Sorry Bodo, but that’s really sour grapes!

      • Novak himself said that Stan played a tactically smart match. Who is the fatso Bodo and what does he know? God it must be a pain for his family to have that scumbag around.

    • Bla bla artistry of Federer bla bla Nole’ superiority … The only adjective Rafa gets is grit. Nothing to see here. Moving along.

    • You should have seen the insulting one he wrote about Rafa last week.

      Bodo just another sour federazzi of the type I’m talkin’ ’bout.

      Not sure who (besides JMac) abhirf is thinking of.

  7. Bodo should be taught that Novak has never had the same power-defense combo as that possessed by rafa! Rafa can defend as good as anyone and because of his forehand, the element of power is much bigger! Nole just did not do enough to push Stan back and his weapons to do so are limited, unlike rafa’s. Fed has his monster forehand but his backhand is a liability.

    Soderling had massive power off both wings and rafa destroyed him in the 2010 final because rafa was able to defend really well AND push soderling back with his own forehand!

    Another thing, novak is not as good as big match player as rafa is. Novak is great in that regard but rafa is the best. When rafa is playing at his top level on the biggest stages, he is the hardest to beat.

    Remember how novak almost lost to federer in last year’s wimby? Same reason,

    • Nole played his best on grass in that match.
      But yes, he hasn’t been the one dominating Slam finals around like Federer or Rafa.

      • he played at a very high level and fed’s comeback in the fourth set was awesome too. However, he almost let the match slip away. He needs to improve his mentality a little in slam finals. His loss to Andy in the USO 2012 finals , after winning sets 3 and 4 , was also a bad one. Wimby 2013 is another example. There are exceptions for everyone but nole is a little far behind fedal, esp rafa, when it comes to handling the biggest of stages.

      • Abhirf, USO 2013..umm…well, it was more about rafa than about novak actually. USO ’13 final was not a very high quality affair but there were good patches. Once again, the deciding factor was rafa’s forehand. I remember his forehand’s average speed in that final was 75 mph (as compared to 69 mph in their USO 2010 final!!) so you can imagine 🙂 Rafa’s forehand DTL once again wreaked havoc with novak’s baseline game. He did not have enough firepower to counter it when rafa was going full throttle. The only way he could have averted it was by using his stupenous backhand DTL and THAT shot was actually not firing well in the final (actually it was not firing too well in his 5-set SF win over stan either).

        Plus, novak won set 2 and was up a break in the second and I remember almost everyone saying this is over. Novak will now finish rafa off in four as he is on control just like he usually is in their hard court matches,. But what followed was a display of unbreakable spirit from rafa! He was just not willing to lose…watch the highlights and see how strongly he came back. He lost a 54-stroke rally to novak but it was still rafa came out like a lion in the next game.

        Once novak lost that third set, THEN his response in the fourth was not too good. Rafa just kept firing and novak was just not doing good enough.

      • Rafa played mind boggling in set 1 & 4. He was just excellent. Not sure why people cannot see it. He broke the spirit of Novak and he admitted it as much (or was it Vajda who admitted)

        Set 2 Novak was better..Set 3 both were good till 4 all, it was up and down..but last 2 games Rafa just turned it up a notch. He celebrated set 3 win as if he won the match itself. I think he knew it then and there he is winning this.

      • Rafa played better tennis in that 2nd and 3rd set.
        In the 1st set, was a very lazy start by Djokovic and after losing that 3rd set, he just gave up.
        So yeah, Half-good Rafa and Half-bad Nole.

        I remember that match well enough. Nothing great to warrant a re-watch. Would rather watch their 2010 final which was a way better match.

      • abhirf, remember that it was after this match that nole decided to hire becker and becker later revealed novak felt he was lagging behind nadal! So it was not about having a bad day or something. His best was just not able to match rafa’s best at that time

      • vamosrafa, I asked you yesterday who you thought rafa could add to his coaching team? just wondering what you thought on this one? I thought Cahill would do a great job…..
        was just interested in your opinion…
        would also like him to see a sports psychologist to help sort out the heebie jeebies….!

    • I think Nole is getting there with his FH.
      It’s not as weak as it used to be.
      With the improvements that Novak has made over the past 1.5 years, he may not have the most sought after clicks in his game, but definitely has the least amount of troughs.
      That’s why he has become so consistent.

      • vamosrafa,

        I just got on the site and know that this comment may embarrass you, but I have to say that your response @ 9:04 am was absolutely brilliant and on point! You broke down that 2013 USO final in fine fashion!

        I wish there was something more to add, but you pretty much summed up how it went. Suffice to say that I agree with your analysis and not with abhirf’s on this one. 🙂

    • vamosrafa says: June 7, 2015 at 10:12 pm

      +1

      This is why I have never understood all the nonsense about Novak being the complete player blah, blah, blah. Of course Novak has a great game and in his pomp (2011) was a marvel to watch. The only reason he has appeared indestructible this year was because Rafa, the only guy who can truly and consistently take it to Novak, is still making his way back to form post injury.

  8. abhirf says: June 7, 2015 at 10:12 pm
    Not quite sure about Bodo.
    He has turned pro-Rafa lately.

    ^^You’re joking, right?

    • Not really.
      apart from his recent Nadal’s clay court blues post, he has been quite appreciative of Rafa.
      Or, I could better put it this way, he has toned down his criticism for Rafa.

      Just like Tignor has turned from pro-Rafa to just a Rafa fan.

  9. I am watching the tennis channel replay of the match and it’s interesting to hear the commentary there as opposed to the network, where we had Ted Robinson, JMac and Mary Carillo. What I appreciate on the tennis channel is hearing Paul Annacone’s commentary. He doesn’t get into too much of the hyperbole. He just makes his technical observations that are usually quite accurate.

    They didn’t seem nearly as shell shocked as the crew on the network when the match was live. But I did notice a few things seeing it again. For one thing, Novak seemed to abandon the drop shot. It wasn’t effective against Stan. I also thought that Stan took Novak out of his game plan. He seemed to be dictating the points in many of the rallies. I think it was great to see him trading blows with Novak and then finally Novak would be the one to blink.

    But the thing that really stands out watching it again, it how mentally strong Stan was throughout the match. He never gave up when he lost the first set and didn’t fold when he was down 0-3. To see him come back in that fourth set was really something.

    I have an even better appreciation of Stan’s performance seeing it for a second time. That SHBH did a lot of damage! But the truth was that Stan was on fire with this groundstrokes throughout the match. Winning the third set put more pressure on Novak
    to come from behind.

    It’s just as satisfying seeing it again! 🙂

  10. The icing was Feds comment that I posted before.

    Llodra texted him why is he not at the stadium to support his friend? Rogers reply : I was sure he would win, hence I am watching FC Basel

    Roger ; such disrespect to Novak, how can you not call the world No 1 the fav ? He also said post Rome that this seemed like 2011 all over again and reminded what happened in FO that year 🙂
    And mind you, he said this to Llodra before Stan won 😉

    • lol…that tweet you posted his hilarious! fed actually had so much faith in stan?! haha…

      I saw a picture in which fed was sitting in the football stadium but he had was live streaming the RG final on his mobile! lol

  11. “He has probably the best one-handed backhand on the tour. No question, one of the best one-handed backhands that I have seen in tennis,” Djokovic said. “It’s very powerful and can create a lot of spin, a lot of rotation on the ball. He can hit it flat down the line. He can block the ball very well. He has a short slice, long slice. He has a lot of variety from that part of his baseline game.”

  12. I am still shaking my head at yesterday’s result. Djokovic is supposed to be at his imperious best, at least that is what the fawning pundits and fans told us. He is even better than 2011 they said. He is better than Rafa ever was on clay they opined. He is the new King of Clay, after he “destroyed” Rafa in the quarters the RG title was his, the calendar Slam was inevitable. As for vegas, the less said the better.

    He then goes to someone who lost in the 1st round at RG last year, someone nobody gave any hope to him beating Novak.

    The same pundits and Novak fans have been consistently saying Rafa is a former shadow of himself in the build-up to RG. So that was Rafa’s excuse: his level was nowhere near his imperious best. This is the truth. What was Novak’s excuse? Oh yes, he was simply outplayed by Stan. Novak, at his imperious best, was outplayed by Stan. This is the truth. No excuses.

    Makes you wonder what all the hallabaloo was about in Rafa’s quarterfinal loss to Novak. That was to be expected, no? Novak simply beat an out of form Rafa. The loss said more about Rafa’s form than about Novak’s but you would not have thunk it listening to the fawning pundits and desperate Novak fans. This is what makes Novak’s loss all the more satisfying. His touted imperious form was a lie. Novak looked good because Rafa was bad.

    People need to listen to Rafa more. During one of his pressers he said something to the effect that in sport, you cannot lie about your form. The truth about the real state of your game is always exposed on court: Not pundits and fans’ desires, not betting odds’ picks, not sentimental hogwash. The truth will out.

    The truth came out yesterday.

    • You wont stop RITB, will you ? :-). You are having a field day gloating about Noles loss and not missing any opportunity to shout about it from the rooftops :-). I can almost see you jumping around in happiness 🙂

      • You have good x-ray eyes @Sanju, I can’t stop jumping up and down! Your karma is beautiful indeed! The way Novak fans behaved, especially towards Rafa in the lead-up to RG and after his loss to Novak in the quarters was shameful. And the way Novak put the boot in Rafa in the Bernardes affair was equally shameful. It was mostly Novak fans who drove the whole Rafa/Bernades affair on the internet. Yes, I am happy the universe has paid Novak and his nasty fans in kind.

        Now they can start the whole RG obsession palaver all over! Priceless………….

      • and have you noticed how the pundits (and Fedfans) were going on and on about how this RG was critical for Rafa, how if he did not win this RG this would spell the end for Rafa? But lo and behold, they never went there with Novak because he was a shoo-in for the title. Now that he lost, AGAIN, they are saying ah well, shit happens, he will be back next year. Huh?

        I am heartily sick of the disrespect shown Rafa. I hope Rafa continues to improve and shoves their disrespect up where the sun don’t shine!

  13. @danica (over on the evil blog) Says:
    Senorita,

    No, indeed, it’s not easy winning RG. It’s not easy winning any GS. Rafa has 9 RGs and Nole has 5 AOs. Only shows how great both are on those surfaces ( I won’t even go into Roger’s Wimbledons). So, what was your point?

    As for Novak being close, I do think he was and I do think he was cheated of more finals. He was constantly put onto Rafa’s path so no wonder he didn’t play the finals in 2013 or 2008 where he played a tighter and better match than Roger in the finals. I do feel that from 2011 onwards, he had great chances to win. There were circumstances that prevented him from doing so and I will not go there now. I just hope that Nole will overcome all the adversity and despite everything and everyone win this elusive title to cement his legacy.

    ……………………………………………………………………

    First of all, @Senorita’s point is Rafa has one AO, Novak has zero RG’s, in spite of Rafa being labeled a one-dimensional clay specialist and Novak being called a complete all court player.

    You of course know this @danica and that is why you go straight to the “Novak has been cheated” rationalization to try and explain this contradiction.

    Now, let’s play along with this “cheated” rationalization. So, if we accept that Novak was cheated of more finals (therefore the shot at being a champion) by being constantly put into Rafa’s path as you put it, we should then accept that Rafa was cheated of a place in the final this year by being put in the path of the #1 player. Rafa was cheated of more AO trophies by being put in Novak’s path and so on and so on. Oh come on, cry me a river! This is nonsense. In any case, he overcame that challenge this year, and still lost.

    Also, if, as you say, Novak was robbed of RG titles by being put in Rafa’s path, you are acknowledging that Rafa is way and above better than Novak at RG, which is true, kudos to you for acknowledging the truth. Also, you appear to be acknowledging that draws are rigged. I agree with you on that but with your conclusion that this is why Novak has zero RGs to his name. The reason for that is he is simply not good enough at RG, not yet anyway. Rafa, on the other hand, has proved he is good enough at AO.

      • Maybe by circumstances she means, RG2012 rain and match postponed to next day..netgate in 2013..sick in 2014..yeah all those excuses :-). Sour grapes.

        If 1 netgate can make your famed rival come from 4 2 down and blast winners past you right, left, centre and snatch the match from right under your nose, you are living in a fools paradise.

        Sadly they always bring up RG2013 and how close it was, never bring up AO2012 and how close it was, that could have gone either way too, it was that tight and 7 5 in 3rd and last 2 games both went to deuce.

    • Yes her logic is twisted. She is trying to have it both ways, maybe her mind is not functioning well today after yesterdays loss 🙂 .

      Circumstances..haha..my foot. Atleast Novak did not get injured in a GS final like Rafa did in AO 2014, what can get worse than that if you cant compete your best in a GS final.

      If anyone had to battle worst circumstances, be it injury or bad draws or being victim of bad scheduling, it was Rafa who was at the worst of the receiving end.

      • @sanju! hi dude 😉 almost out of context with rafa’s performance! still looking for a miracle that brings another AO to his trophy room! 😀
        anyway, too happy about djoker’s loss! there is a fact! A JOKER NEVER DETHRONES HIS KING!!!!!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.