Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

The 31st meeting between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will come on Friday in Cincinnati. The former No. 1 players in the world will be battling for a spot alongside either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych in the semifinals.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 31st time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open on Friday night.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 20-10, but they have split their 12 previous hard-court encounters at six wins apiece. They have faced each other twice this season, with Nadal dominating both times–6-4, 6-2 in the Indian Wells quarterfinals and 6-1, 6-3 in the Rome title match. Federer last defeated the Spaniard one year ago in the Indian Wells semifinals with a 6-3, 6-4 victory.

Nadal presser
Current form, of course, gives a decided edge to Nadal. The world No. 3 is an amazing 50-3 for the season, including a perfect 12-0 on hard courts. He triumphed in Indian Wells, toppled Novak Djokovic en route to the Montreal title last week, and so far in Cincinnati he has dismissed Benjamin Becker and Grigor Dimitrov. Nadal showcased the same aggressiveness against Becker as he did in Montreal, but a far less polished performance on Thursday helped Dimitrov take a set in a 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 decision.

Federer’s Cincinnati campaign has been relatively similar. Going back to his old racket, the fifth-ranked Swiss took care of Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets before turning in a disastrous set and a half against Tommy Haas in the third round. Haas led by a set and a break only to see Federer storm back for a 1-6, 7-5, 6-3 win. The rest of Federer’s year, however, has been nothing like that of Nadal. The 17-time Grand Slam champion’s record stands at 32-10, with recent losses in the Wimbledon second round, Hamburg semifinals, and Gstaad second round.

Fed 1
“I want to make sure I start better and finish strong as well,” Federer noted. “It’s clearly going to be a difficult match because (Nadal) comes in with a lot of confidence. It’s a great season for him.”

While adorning Federer with his usual praise, Nadal also assured that facing his rival makes it different from just any other quarterfinal. “Always [to] play against Roger is a special feeling. We have a great history behind us in our confrontations.”

Speaking of history, Federer is a five-time champion of this event whereas Nadal has never won it–nor even been to the final. The hard-court surface helps Federer, as do the night conditions (by Nadal’s own admission). Still, this has clearly been a bad matchup for Federer and it has become even worse for him of late. Based on their respective levels of play this summer, it’s hard to imagine Federer turning the tide.

Pick: Nadal 6-2. 7-6(4)

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203 Comments on Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

    • So confident vamosrafa
      Rafa looks like didn’t play too well today as he dropped a close 2 nd set

      This is feds home too

      Vamosrafa how was Rafa game today wat worked n wat didnt

  1. —While adorning Federer with his usual praise, Nadal—

    Rafa knows what pro-Fed journalists/writers want to hear and he delights them. The journalists have kept asking and Rafa keeps answering the same. The journalists get every time very excited (billions of times!) about that. Isn’t it funny?

  2. @sanju, he was just not comfortable overall…he won set 1 6-2 but it was nothing special…he served well though…dimitrov sprayed too many errors… set 2, rafa was a up a break and he started missing sooo many easy forehands…he was dumping them into the net and forehand DTL was way off too…it was natural for him to lose confidence so the backhand started lacking aggressiveness even more…the ROS was just not there the entire match..not getting good enough strikes back… He was also standing much deeper in the court for ROS and not playing inside the baseline like his previous match.

    Set was better but nowhere near vintage rafa…I hope it was just an off day..he looked disgruntled and frustrated too…. However, I am confident he’l be back to playing some great ball tomorrow

    • And how was Fed vaamosrafa? was he also equally bad or was his match against Haas better?

      I wonder why Rafa suddenly stopped being aggressive today and did not play close to the baseline or inside the baseline . With confidence there should be no frustration or disgruntlement.

      How long was the Rafa match vamosrafa?

      • Thanks Ricky. So looks like both played BAD today. God knows how both will turn out tomorrow? Rafa has already said its a night match and night conditions will favour Fed.

      • Sanju,

        Fed was awful for a set and a half. I mean really dreadful stuff. I thought that Haas let him back into that match and then he started playing better. Also Haas didn’t really keep it together.

        I am now watching the tape delayed broadcase of Rafa/Dimitrov. They are starting the second set. I want to see what happened and how Rafa lost that second set. I was not happy about that. All the other guys, including Fed, are taking it easy and Rafa plays last and then has to go three sets.

        I don’t know what was going on with Rafa tonight but he let that second set get away and that’s something he hasn’t been doing except against Djoker.

        I am not that sure it will be a straight set win for Rafa against Fed. It depends on how he plays. I expect Fed to come out playing much better than he did against Haas. He is the one defending 1000 points and desperately needing a win to turn around a disastrous year. Rafa will have to find his aggressive game again.

  3. Sanju,

    I am sorry to cause you concern. Someone on vb said that a person who was at Rafa’s practice said he was limping. I could seriously strangle people who relate stuff like that. Then there was this hoax tweeted by a Fed fan who was at Rafa’s practice, to the effect that Rafa was ill with the flu or stomach poisoning. That proved to be totally false.

    I did not see Rafa do that little half squat thing for the rest of the match. I know that someone on vb said that he does this in practice. I think it might have been a little tightness or niggle, but wasn’t anything to be concerned about. Rafa moved well in the match. He had a brain cramp and made some mistakes in the last few games of the second set. I wanted him to get out of there in two sets.

    Ricky,

    How do you know that the knee is not an issue. Did you ask Rafa? 🙂

    I am superstitious when it comes to matches with Fed. I know that Rafa had that big h2h advantage but I don’t like to get overconfident. As long as Rafa plays better than he did tonight, he should get the win. There is no way that Fed can come out and play as awful as he did against Haas in that first set and a half .Not against Rafa. He will know that.

    It’s just that Fed has a lot on the line here. He will drop a huge chunk of points and could go down further in the rankings. I just want Rafa to come out playing his aggressive game. I hope this was just one off night for him.

    • So NNY..looks like you think it can go either way? Me too I think it can go either way as the court is fast, night condtons and Fed will be very motivated for this as he knows he will go down to No 6 if he loses this as he will lose 820 points.

      • Sanju,

        I think this one will go three sets. I do think the fast court and night conditions will help Fed. I agree that he will be very motivated to get this win. However, he will be playing one of the most formidable competitors ever. We know Rafa’s mental strength and will to win. That’s why I think this one will go the distance.

        If Rafa plays his aggressive game and serves well, then I think he will get the win. But I am not taking anything for granted. Ricky seems so sure. I always get a little nervous.

  4. People viewing Rafa limping with microscopic detail now is actually getting irritating.And it just sends panic across like wild fire.

    Oh Rafa..your famous knes give your fans too much stress (:-

    • Rafas forehand topspin bounces higher during day and Fed is very uncomfy with that high topspin to his BH. At night the forehand topspin has lesser pop

  5. “Rafa since he’s come back has been the best player in the world, no question about it,” Djokovic told ESPN after his third round victory at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.

    The World No. 1 said he sees improvements in Nadal’s game since the Spaniard missed seven months last year with a knee injury. “I think he’s more aggressive,” said Djokovic, pointing to their semi-final match in Montreal last week, which was won by Nadal in three sets. “He was very aggressive, stepping in, variety in the game — but it was still a very close match,” the Serb added.

  6. I am not nervous to be honest…I am confident about rafa winning this one. Do I think rafa’s knees were a cause of concern yesterday? No. Am i scared about his knees being potentially damaged before USO? yeah to some extent :/ I am just worried about the prospect of rafa having to play 3 consecutive 3 setters against fed muzz nole…Plz keep this one to two sets rafa …He will be better today I am sure 🙂

  7. Rafa was asked about his knees after the match against B. Becker. He has pain sometimes, but he can move normally.
    —-Q. Rafa, you played a lot of matches this year, but not a lot of matches in a row on hard courts. So how much of a test is this tournament for your knees as well as your tennis, back‑to‑back hard court events?
    RAFAEL NADAL: No, I think it’s not a big test for me. My knee is healed, is working well for the moment. On the court, I felt more trouble was on grass because the movements are less stable and I need to play lower than in the rest of the surfaces.
    In the rest of the surfaces I will not say I am 100% perfect, but the way that my knee works today is not limiting my game in no way. So I’m very happy for that.
    I have pain sometimes, yes. That’s why I say I’m not 100% perfect. But I’m 100% perfect to compete at 100% today.—-

    The full interview with Rafa after his match against B. Becker. August 14, 2013.
    http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/08/16/an-interview-with-rafael-nadal-august-14-2013/

  8. Rafa after his yesterday’s match: —“I played a good level in the first set. Then his serve was working well in the beginning of the second. I was having trouble, so just wait for my moment,” said Nadal. “I started the third set trying to go another time inside the court and trying to have the control of the point from there, and I think I played a good third set in general.”—
    I think, Rafa will make adjustments during today’s match also, if necessary.

  9. I just hope it turns out to be a competitive match. It’s Rafa’s match to lose. Though Fed can surprise just like he did at IW last year.
    Fed needs to be aggresseve on his serve and return game and should try to convert every BP opportunity he gets. The most frustating part is when he simply nets the opponents serves on BP’s. Just hoping that he turns out in the mood. Win or lose is a different matter right now.

  10. Fed is going to get pummeled from the baseline today. That isn’t a question. There is nothing he can do about. His chance is to have an awesome day on serve (has to serve at 70 percent, at least) and to be extremely aggressive with returns. He is not going to break serve unless he hits outright winners with returns and/or takes control of rallies starting with the first shot.

  11. This is a bad version of Federer vs a Good version of Nadal. I think is going to be a quick match (maybe less than 80 minutes). I think there is a good chance that Federer will be number 7 in ranking at the end of the day. I dont see Federer winning
    more than 3 o 4 games
    Prediction: 6-2 6-2

  12. Ricky, I do acknowledge your statement but it’s not like that Fed doesnt know how to play from the baseline. The guy is probably in his worst form of his career but it takes just a spirited performance or a great day to turn things up. I acknowledge that the probablity of such a scenario taking place given the present situation is very little. But it is there.
    I will root for him no matter what, even knowing he fact that he will lose in almost all probability.

  13. After watching Rafa flounder in the 2nd set hitting short balls to BabyFed, I like Fed in three. He’s due for an upset eventually, no?

    #StatisticalEventuality
    #AntiJinxings
    #WheresWillmw?

      • Not sure!

        If Rafa plays his best, he will win.

        I just think Rafa is due for a stinker sometime soon and Roger will have the crowd and conditions in his favour tonight. If Fed can’t beat him tonight, I don’t think he ever will again.

        Hope it’s antijinxing.

        #VamosRafa

  14. Technical difficulties. I created a wordpress account under Hawkeye63 but more often than not, I get a message something like “Your comment cannot be posted.”

    Sometimes even Conspirator doesn’t work and I can’t post at all.

    #Muzzled

    • I kind of feel the same as you. I can see it both ways. If Rafa wasn’t playing so well, many of us would be nervous about the prospects of him meeting Fed in Cincy. This is Rafa’s worst Masters event by far. He has never won here. Fed has won five times. So we can’t dismiss Fed totally here.

      As far as your problems posting here, I know that others have had the same problem. Did you try to use a different browser if you are using internet explorer? Maybe google chrome? I have both.

      I was wondering why you weren’t here. At least we can talk tennis in peace without the trolls.

      • nny, I’m also having some fun on tennis-x.

        Yes, I’ve tried everything. Sometimes I can post and sometimes not. I liked using wordpress because I could have a custom avatar. Maybe Ricky banned me lol!

        Was gonna drop the Conspirator moniker because those days might be gone at least for now. On second thought, perhaps I should wait until after the USO!

        Nice to see so many ex-TT posters back since the last time I checked.

        #Tinfoil

  15. Sanju, all Rafa needs to do is play his best. Like Rafa said himself in last night’s post match presser, “Tomorrow will be another match against a great player, probably the best in history, and if I am not 100 percent ready to fight every ball and to make the right decisions in the right moments, I will not have chances to win.”

    On another note, nice to see so many hashtaggers on Tennis-X, lol.

    #Humb1e
    #Vamos

    • Sanju,

      Please don’t say that I am tipping Fed for the win. That’s not what I said. In fact, I voted in the poll for Rafa in three sets. I just think that this match could be more competitive than the last few. I may very well be wrong. Rafa could come out and blast Fed right off the court. But this is Cincy at night and Fed does have a chance. That’s all I am saying.

      I try to be cautious in my predictions. I am very superstitious. I just don’t like to think it’s a done deal. I did also say that if Rafa plays the way he has before last night, then he will get the win. So please don’t think I am predicting a Fed win.

  16. irrelevant, but wanted to share this: Connors and sharapova split after ONE MATCH…lol :S may be connors was opposed to her grunting which sharapova could not tolerate?

    anyway, I am confident about rafa, not sure why but for the first time not nervous before a match against federer

  17. vamosrafa,

    I always set great store by your comments. I have to look to you in the absence of luckystar now. I can’t say that I nervous. But I am not assuming that Rafa will win this for sure and that Fed has no chance. As I said a few times, if Rafa comes out playing aggressive and serving well and returning well, then he will win.

    Interesting info about Connors and Sharapova splitting after one match. You don’t think she blamed him for her early loss? 🙂

  18. I watched that match. Djoker made some crucial double faults in his final service game. This is what I have noticed this year. Djoker would always come up with the serves to get him out of trouble or get the win. This is not like him. He is cracking under the pressure. That is a mental issue.

    Who knew? Isner kept it together and played well to get this win. I think this is a good thing for Delpo. He should take advantage of this to get to the final. But I thought that Delpo had a good shot at beating Djoker if they did meet.

    Now we have to see what happens with Murray/Berdy.

    • I said it yesterday: Djoker’s heaping unnecessary pressure on himself with all this talk of motivated to do history. I hope he carries the same cockiness into USOpen. I am sure there’s a record he is chasing there too, no?

      • ritb,

        I think ed was the one who first came up with this theory after Djoker lost to Rafa in the semis at RG. I wasn’t sure at that time, but after watching Djoker choke this one away, I really that both of you are on to something. I do think that Djoker is putting too much pressure on himself by saying publicly that he can make history with this win or that win.

        Rafa never does that. He always talks himself down. Some people who don’t like Rafa find that annoying or call it fake humility. But I think it’s Rafa’s way of taking the pressure off himself. Can you imagine if Rafa went around talking himself up for a possible 8th title at RG this year? He doesn’t even like to say it out loud. But that’s why he is smart.

        Djoker is doing himself no favors with all this talk. Less talk and better tennis!

  19. I do expect Rafa to win tonight. It cannot be a 100% sure thing but it is pretty sure, unless something fairly unexpected happens for either of them. (Personally I don’t go for jinxing, antijinxing, being careful about jinxing… I don’t think our thougths and writing have any influence with the outcomes of these pro matches. Where they make a difference is with having hopes up and dashed sometimes. I would be disappointed if Rafa does not go make it to the semis… he has a better chance than most years to get a Cinci title at last. And three hardcourt titles for three after 7 months off would be a good response to all those saying his tennis days off clay are over etc.

    • Yep, Murray lost in straight set to Berdy. Should I say out loud that now Rafa does have a chance to get the #2 ranking if he wins Cincy? I believe that Murray had to go out before the semis for Rafa to take #2 if he wins.

      More motivation for Rafa to win tonight. Three wins and he is #2 going into the USO! But you won’t hear Rafa talking about it.

  20. Rafa is also going for a record at cincy, but you won’t ever see him talk about it ..even if the topic springs up, he changes the topic quickly… Rafa is aiming to equal djokovic ‘s 2011 record of winning 5 masters 1000 in a single season… he is the favourite to do it here, … lets see if he can do it or not…

    Rafa winning cincy would make him world no.2 and give him a 2240 points lead over djoker in 2013…okay okay I know there are 3 very tough matches to be won before that happens, I was just putting things into perspective 😉 VAMOSSS

    • vamosrafa,

      I just pointed out in my comment above that Rafa will get the #2 ranking if he wins Cincy. But you also pointed out that Rafa can also make his own history here. Yes, notice that Rafa has not said one word about it! Wouldn’t that be wonderful! For all the times we have had to read comments to the effect that Rafa can’t win on hard courts! That would be sweet!

      I cautioned someone on vb not to get too carried away right now. This person said that they didn’t want Rafa to play Isner! Now that’s getting way ahead. As Rafa would say, that’s a good new because it would mean that he is in the final! 🙂

      I don’t see Isner getting there. I think Delpo will take him out. If Rafa beats Fed then he faces Berdy, who hates playing Rafa. I was kind of hoping that Rafa would get to play Murray here. They haven’t played since Rafa came back.

      Things have lined up very nicely. Now we just have to cross our fingers that Rafa can make it happen. Don’t think Rafa doesn’t know about the rankings points either! He knows!

  21. good post NNY 🙂 I agree…nd yes ‘As Rafa would say, that’s a good new because it would mean that he is in the final!’ SO TRUE 😀

  22. rafa needs to sort out his backhand…he was going for it earlier and shanking , he is now started placing it rather passively… forehand has not been bad.. serve has been good though..

  23. I always believe now that Rafa hates playing Federer bcos he just feel bad when he beats him. Rafa has been playing so aggressive but he really seems a bit passive tonite and does not look like he is enjoying himself, and Rafa is making too many silly errors!!!

  24. Like yesterday, rafa’s good serving is saving him… roger has been the slightly better player so far in that he has bossed more points..they have won 21 points each from the baseline though..

  25. I told everyone that this would be a tougher match. Fed is playing very aggressive. Rafa doesn’t look as good as he did at Montreal.

    They both know what is at stake here. Fed knows that Murry and Djoker are out. He knows that if he gets this win, he has a shot at the title and defending those 1000 points. The commentators said that if Fed loses this match he will drop to #7.

    Rafa knows what’s on the line for him.

    I said that this would be closer than we expected.

  26. Your serve cannot save you all the time , rafa…. this had to happen…federer clearly better now…rafa needs to hit the reset button… as RITB said yesterday, i am not liking rafa’s demeanor …i am not feeling the same energy that was there in montreal …

    Anyway, he can still turn this around, just needs to find some improvement ..

  27. Well now Fed broke Rafa and is serving for the set. Rafa is not playing well enough tonight. Fed seems to have come in with a game plan. I wonder if there is something going on with Rafa. He is just getting outplayed.

    Overconfidence is not a good thing. I just wonder why Rafa’s level isn’t as good now.

  28. re: Rafa’s demeanour. Making three wrong challenges is a right giveaway. He is usually so sharp and mostly right in his judgement.

  29. This is strange, I was disappointed with his level yesterday but I thought it was just an off day.. no part of rafa’s game except the serve is clicking…

  30. Rafa has to losen up he is way to edgy………..Fed realises this and is bossing Rafa around!!!!! Dont understand whts up with Rafa, he probably wants to do like Murray and Novak and go rest for the US Open……….lol!!!!

  31. Yes, that was unusual from Rafa. Then he had not challenges left. I was concerned after seeing the match with Dimitrov last night. Rafa just didn’t look that good. He should have closed it out in two sets, but got sloppy and had to go to a third set.

    I think Fed got a lot of confidence from his win over Haas. That’s why I don’t take anything for granted! Rafa was having more trouble holding his serves and Fed was holding easily.

  32. Ricky said the knee is okay, so what’s the problem? Rafa just doesn’t like this Cincy hard court? Now we know why he’s never won here.

  33. Am I seeing things? Did Fed just won the 1st set? I cant believe what I’m seeing. 🙂
    Though I expect the usual drop of level from Fed as he always does against Rafa.

  34. But why? Rafa has been playing outstanding tennis. This is not the time for a letdown. Fed came prepared tonight.

    I guess we will see what Rafa’s got now in this second set.

  35. Rafa has to make a dent in Fed’s serve.

    They posted stats for the first set. Rafa’s serving stats are not as good as Fed’s. Not enough winners. Fed has a lot of winner and ue’s because he’s going for more.

  36. RITB, he is being outplayed because:

    1. fed is executing his aggressive game very very well
    2. rafa is NOT hitting his backhand and forehand well

    Fed is growing in confidence..look at all the hit and charge, serve & volley points etc

  37. Maybe Rafa has had enough and wants to rest before the USO. Something just seems off about his energy tonight. That takes nothing away from how well Fed has played. This was a great opportunity for him to go deep here, but maybe the #2 ranking wasn’t meant to be.

    A win against Rafa here now would be a big feather in Fed’s cap.

  38. Rafa is having such problems dealing with Fed’s early takes on the ball, which is strange because I thought he was doing that very well in Montreal, reading those early returns I mean…………

  39. Can you believe it? Fed’s forehand is breaking down Rafa’s backhand! Shouldn’t it be the other way round? Who would have thunk it?

  40. This is not looking good. Rafa has reverted back to his defensive self. That’s not going to get it done. Something is just not right with him. He needed that break to get some momentum and get back in this match.

    This is not the Rafa we have seen in Montreal. It’s disappointing to see him go backwards. I don’t know the reason why. I guess that’s what he does when he feels uncomfortable.

  41. No, rafa’s backhand has been broken by fed in the past but I did not forsee that happening here because rafa was hitting his backhand so well in montreal

  42. If Fed wants to win this, he must break Rafa in 2nd set as early as possible. The longer Rafa stays in the match, the harder it wil be for Fed to win it.

  43. This is hard court and a Masters that Rafa has never won. He just does not seem comfortable on this court. He needed to make one of those two break points to change the momentum and get something going. He needed the early break. The longer the set goes without a break, the more pressure.

  44. But Rafa’s also competing well, given this is his worst surface, as Ricky’s so fond of telling us…….I hate Cincy!

  45. WOW..rafa has turned this match around SO well… told ya, once rafa starts hitting his backhand and forehand cleanly, he’l have his chances… this was a sudden lift in voltage as far as rafa is concerned at 4-4 15-30, he saved that point and from then on, it has been a dominant rafa

  46. Ed, I’m happy that Fed atleast turned up today to do something. But, still I can’t understand his routine faltering against Rafa. It’s all in the head I think.
    I will see the match whenever the broadcasting fellows decide to show the delayed telecast.

  47. This is not good for my heart!

    At least Rafa woke up and got that break to win the second set! Then it’s like a switch flipped in his head! This is more like it! But one break isn’t enough for me.

    Come on Rafa!

  48. I do not think it was about federer wilting. it was more about rafa suddenly taking the initiative and surprising federer… rafa stole that 2nd set via superb aggressive play… but I agree federer’ s enthusian has not been the same in set 3…once again though, rafa’s level has been MUCH better in set 3 …he is NOT giving short/attack-able balls and serving very well..

    5-2 rafa, seal it… this has been good entertainment..all the lobs, backhand overhead smashes, this is unique to fedal… Federer played much better than his current form so that is positive for him

  49. Ok rafa, now please now mental hiccups…close this on eout smoothly …the crowd is behind roger and he’l go for broke

  50. So another vintage Fedal match with another vintage Fed choke.

    Those things aside, I still wonder what tennis would be without #Fedal

  51. After that first set you could knock me down with a feather. How the heck did he pull that off? Really thought he had blown it till he got the break in the 2nd set.

    This happy bunny is now off to bed.

  52. RT @AmyFetherolf: ”

    Yikes. RT @Ataraxis00: Rafa’s last ball was actually out by a tiny margin, but Federer didn’t challenge.”

    Sorry Fedfans, but if this is true, Fed should have challenged. Even the Gods are smiling on Rafa for a change, considering the tough year he’s had….

    • Hi all – I am up since 440 AM but didn’t dare to put on the TV to watch the match. I was so nervous. Good to know he won but it seemed to be super tight and a vintage Fedal match

      The earlier comments here were so negative,did Rafa play that bad. Rafa lost the 1st 7 5 it can’t be that bad

      So vamosrafa n nny – Was rafa up n down as usual like yesterday. What clicked and what didn’t

      I told you all this ones gonna be a cracker and tuff as Fed is 5 time champion here and its 1 of his fav courts. He bagelled Djoko last year here.

      BTW both Djoko and Murray lost today,crazy. Djoko
      is now losing too many of these close ones.

  53. Boy o boy, Rafa, ypu did not do my heart good…………………..but I still love you! I must say, Fed player very well, Rafa always brings out the best in Fed. I felt he played quite well and for a long while there I thought Fed would pull it out!!!

    Congrats Rafa!! But you will have to play much better with Berdych tomorrow, the Bird is on fire!!!!!

      • Are we trying to say had Fed challenged Fed would have won the match..please..it would have only been back to deuce..1 point makes no difference in the match..Rafa deserved this win as he beat Fed on Feds strongest surface

  54. Abhirf,
    take heart: we got more than the few good points you hoped for. And Federer came determined and did execute the best possible tactics against Rafa and he did that for the first two sets. He played better than in most of his matches in a while now.

    He did have the advantage of a night match and one of Rafa’s ‘worst’ hardcourt surfaces. At the same time Rafa did reach a better level of play in the middle of the second set and then was just too hard to defeat. I kept thinking that this is how Roger should have approached all his matches against Rafa all these years. (And he did on occasion). Today he executed that very well until Rafa reached his better level.

    I loved that improvised scoop up lob Rafa found and turned into a winner.

    After all this having to play at this level I hope Rafa can close our the tournament, no matter who he needs to play now.

  55. My nerves are shot. I guess Fed should have challenged that call. Three match points and still didn’t close it out. I thought that I would faint!

    Then my Mom calls me long distance from Florida and I’m screaming Rafa has match point, now it’s deuce. She thought I was out of my mind. She doesn’t understand or watch tennis at all. So I am trying to talk to her and watch the end of the match. Then I am screaming- the ball was out. So she is asking me, does that mean Rafa doesn’t win? So then I was trying to explain how the score works in tennis and the challenge system.

    She saw a little of the match and said that Rafa looks so mad! I told her that’s how he is when he plays.

    Oh I am just a wreck now!

    Rafa will not have much time to recuperate. The match will start at 2:30 pm tomorrow.

  56. 17 winners to 16 U.E for federer in set 1 as far as i remember… 9 winners to 5 U.E for rafa in set 2…dont know abt set 3…

    rafa is now 51-3 in 2013, 13-0 on courts…3-0 against fed, 2-1 against djokovic… 8 titles…9th one coming? beating berdych is a safe bet..delpo would be the toughest one..rafa stuck among giants !!

    get the world no.2 rafa !! If rafa wins cincy, he’l end 2013 as no.1 in my opinion

  57. oh okay, I did not remember them correctly then…

    Rafa started solving the roger puzzle at 4-4 15-30, arguably the most important rally of the match featuring big hitting from both

  58. thanks sana…. @rafaelo, yea rafa had many break points….

    on another note, i found djokovic’s press conference comments disgraceful…

    “I just played a very bad match overall,” Djokovic said. “Terrible match. From beginning to end, except the start of the second set. I was just a different player totally. Today I wasn’t able to capitalize on my opportunities and serves. You know, in some important moments some double faults, and that’s the way it is.”

    now that’s a perfect definition of taking credit away from your opponent… we know you were not playing great, novak…no need to magnify it so much in the presser..

    anyway, djokovic is in a poor state of mind right now..i have been saying this since montreal and it has some evidence too now…he is wilting under pressure and there is negativity and pessimism and a sense of vulnerability not only in his game but also his comments.

    #rafaClearFavouriteforUSO

  59. Guys hghlights of Rafa – Fed match already up in Youtube. good quality..20 minutes of highlights.

    Check id Rafapedia

    Good winners from both..great lobs.. Feds handshake at end was cold this time though..he did not even smile properly at Rafa..I mean gotta excuse him as he must be pissed off with himself that he lost here to Rafa on one of his fav courts n Rafas worst.

  60. And now enough of this drawing Fed n Rafa in same qtr..happened 3 times already this year..Why is Djokovic n Murray not drawing Fed at all in their qtrs or why did they not draw Rafa in thir qtrs yet when Rafa was No 5. I think the fact that Fed Rafa match means guaranteed crowds, viewershp means tourneys want them to play now whichever round it may be.

    BTW is Fed going to drop down to No 7 ..reading some comments around it.. not that it matters for a slam..5-8 all the same for a slam

  61. Nadal says he felt slow and didn’t have the right return position early b/c Roger played so aggressively

    RF: “I think Rafa’s confidence & the way he’s playing at the moment got him thru. For me, I think it was a good step in the right direction”

    Rafa says it was difficult to read Fed’s serve in the 1st set: “I have to play my best against him. He’s a great champion

    Tennis Facts ‏@TennisFacts 2h Nadal has improved his H2H against Federer on surfaces other than clay to 8-8 (7-6 on hard, 1-2 on grass).

    Tennis Facts ‏@TennisFacts 2h Nadal and Federer have met on non-clay surfaces more than on clay.

    Federer: “Wasn’t a bad performance, so I can definitely take more things away from this week than I could for the last 3 months.”

    #rafaelnadal says his intensity helped him win tonight

    @andyroddick Nothing in tennis like the matchup w Fed and Nadal …. This match is an insanely high level of tennis right now….

  62. I got the numbers for first and second set:

    Set 1: Winners Federer 17-7 Nadal unforced errors: Federer 16 – 12 Nadal
    Set 2: Winners Federer 14-9 Nadal unforced errors: Federer 12 – 5 Nadal

    btw, Nadal has improved his record in hard outdoor to 7-2

  63. Sanju,

    You asked about whether Rafa was up and down in this match like he was with Dimitrov. He did not play well in that first set and Fed played extremely well. Better than he has against Rafa in quite some time. You have posted some of Rafa’s comments to explain what was going on.

    We were concerned because Rafa seemed to revert to his defensive tennis in that first set. He was standing too far back behind the baseline. He also seemed kind of flat. We are not used to Fed winning the first set against Rafa anymore! 🙂

    But he picked it up in the second set and only got better as the match went on. He was really firing on all cylinders in that third set. Getting the break at the end of the second set to win it really seemed to get Rafa going. He found his aggressive game again.

    Remember I said that it would be a much more competitive match this time. I had a few reasons for saying it, plus this strong gut feeling that I get after watching a lifetime of tennis. I voted Rafa in three sets in the poll. I definitely thought it would go three sets. I think Fed had a lot on the line, had a come from behind win against Haas and came in with a game plan.

    But Rafa is the great problem solver out there on the court. He never gives up and is always thinking out there. No one is better at making adjustments in a match.

    My only concern about the semi with Berdy is the short turnaround time that Rafa has before the day match tomorrow afternoon. This will also be his first match played in the day. We will see what he has left. But I have to admit that it would be amazing to see him win this title and get the #2 ranking before the USO.

    • Yes Berdy i the real test not bcoz of who Berdy is but because Rafa has like only 15 hours recovery time and has played back to back 3 setters. I think day conditios suit him, nothing much to worry. Also lets not forget Berdy played only in Grandstand, not in show court, so he would not have felt this court too.

      I am watching the match on TV now and yes Fed is super aggressive in 1st set. I knew this one will not be straightforward and will be very competitive and hence was nervous. Fed is not a 5 time champion here for nothing.

  64. Federer took the battle to Nadal from the outset and his backhand was significantly more effective against the lefty than in their past three meetings, in which the Swiss won an average of just six games a match. His decision to come over his backhand return on Nadal’s serve rather than slice was a signature tactic of the match. And his dazzling crosscourt backhand winner (play Hot Shot above) to take the first set was one of the best he’s ever hit against Nadal.

    “I’m not totally unhappy about the match. I could have played a bit better, but I think I was playing well and tactics were working. Of course, I always have to adjust to faster courts, slower courts when I play Rafa. Plus it is him; it’s the type of game I don’t see very often…

    “I’m happy with my progress along the way. Could have won tonight. Should have won tonight, who knows? But at the end, I think Rafa’s confidence and the way he’s playing at the moment got him through. So for me, I think it was a good step in the right direction.”

    “My mind’s already totally geared into what I’m going to do tomorrow, next day, and the following day, and looking ahead at the US Open. So I’m excited about the next sort of 10 days.”

    So Fed came with a proper game plan and actually took Rafa offguard in 1st. Apart from being very aggressive , I think he using the ‘topping backhand’ or ‘coming over’ backhand rather than the slice one was key change of tactic. I am happy Rafa played him , he will be better prepared now for Fed. Rem after WTF 2011 when Rafa lost 6-3, 6-0, how he changed his game vs Rafa in 2012 AO, he basically said Roger had improved his BH a lot and hence he was attacking ogers both wings rather than just BH .

  65. Watching the delayed telecast on TV. The rally in which Fed broke Rafa reminded me of TMC’06 SF. Peppering FH’s by Roger. For the 1st time this season Fed’s movement around the court looks like what it should be.
    1st set Fed 7-5.
    If Fed can carry this to USO, then a probable Qf upset is definitely on cards. Rafa managed to escape. But probably Nole or Muzz wouldn’t.

    Look what Rogie’s done. Suddenly got me too excited for the Open. 😉

    • Agree..watcing it too on TenSports now..good match..but abhi..whether he can over 3 sets against Nole or Murray is the question..

      And Abhi..cmon you gotta be fair..Rafa played and won..he did not manage to escape..if you say he escaped, it almost implies he got lucky ..he made aadjustments..played the big points in 2nd n 3rd far better

  66. I have never joined in the chorus when many people predicted Fed had the skids under him. I’d always maintained it was too early to write him off so his performance last night did not come as a complete surprise. Nothing wrong with his game but his nerves have been frayed by the run of losses.

    It was a classic case of Rafa winning a match that looked like a lost cause.

    After winning Montreal I’d been fully prepared Rafa might not even play Cincy so every win from now on a bonus.

  67. Not able to decide which match was better- The Fedal QF at Cincy or the Rafa Nole semi in Montreal..both were high high quality

  68. Nah Sanju, I didnt implied that Rafa got lucky. I just meant that he withstood one tide. The confidence that Fed can gain from this match can help him overcome Nole or Muzz against whom Fed doesnt have that mental aspect as he has against Rafa. Always gets tight in crucial moments & as soon as Rafa senses that he suddenly escalates his level. This has been the story throughout their rivalry, not just yesterday’s case.

    I’m just happy that he finally decided to show up and fight. Now it’s time to relax for a day or two and put the thought and work in streamline again for the open.

    • I hope either Nole or Muzz draw him now in QFs. Rafa and Fed have drawn each other thrice now this yeat at IW, Wimby, Cincinnati. Time now for Nole or Muzz to face the brunt , esp Nole who has been getting far too many cupcake draws this year(except RG and Montreal where he drew Rafa in his half)

  69. well in a lot of fedal matches nadal has the control from the beginning but fed having control for almost half the match was not at that customary in their rivalry…dubai 06 final was a similar contest though…

    Rafa is actually unmatched in this regard. Federer has never been able to solve the nadal puzzle.really. rafa, on the other hand, has actually overcome every kind of obstacle , the biggest one of which has been nole’s grip on him….rafa has solved the nole puzzle despite being hampered with all the injuries and lay offs .. this makes rafa an unmatched champion

    • it’s not about the control of match from its onset. Their many battles have been more than almost equal till a crucial juncture in each set they have played in those matches. I dont know why Fed always dropped his guard or Rafa escalating his level or a combination of both just while closing on to end of the set in most of their matches. Wimby’08, FO’06, ’07, 2011, AO ‘ 12, Madrid’11.. etc etc. Fed doesnt do these things against other top opponents. Rafa faltered in similar battles against Nole. But when it comes to Fedal, it usually turns out to be the same.

  70. True sanju ! federer at USO can be quite dangerous so I want either nole or andy to draw him… I want either delpo or fed to be drawn in nole’s quarter… I wont bet against nole reaching the final if he has fed/delpo in the qtr followed by murray in the semis -now this requires murray to be ranked no.3 though

    • Well vamosrafa..dont you think the fast Cincy court had something to do with Fed controlling for 1st set and part of 2nd. It was always known Fed is gonna give Rafa a very tough time on fast outdoor corts and grass and beat him almost all times on indoor.. I never understood all people who maade claims that Fed is gonna get thrashed, he never was going to, he has won this tourney 5 times for a good reason and he was playing here for his pride to protect his ranking..he had all the motvation to go for it

  71. and honestly, I do not think federer went away mentally in the 3rd set…if he were absent in the 3rd set, he would not have saved that tough game at 1-4 …then holding again at 2-5 and expending every ounce of energy at 3-5 saving four match points, it was clear he did not fade.. rafa absorbed everything, he has been flawless on hard courts this year :O

    with fed its funny, he always saves matches points only to lose the match …poor guy, saved 5 match pnts against murray in shanghai 2008 and lost eventually…saved 2 match points in wimb 2008 but still lost..saved 4 match points here but lost…. there have been other instances too

    • No he did not fade away mentally..he just couldnt keep up with Rafas relentlessness..But the disgust on his fce when he dropped serve in 3rd at beg said it all..he knew it was a tough mountain for him.

      BTW vamorafa..he saved the serve at 4 1 down more because of Rafas misjudgement of stopping play to challenge a call where the ball just clipped the line.

  72. it’s good to have abhirf, a devoted fed fan…. I hope other fed fans join ! danica, zare mriidula and other nole fans too…. I hope they are not scared by the excessive rafa population here haha, jk…

    • Haha there is no excess Rafa population here than what was on TT 🙂

      BTW you know wht abhi, Fed has almost nothing to defend from now till next years Cincy..he only won Halle..if he really wants to continue playing and has the motivation , he has zero pressure from now till next August and h can actually make a steep climb up the rankings.

      • Yeah. I know that part. I had a discussion about it with my brother too. Maybe this season’s failures will provide him enough motivation. I know he will make his point whenever people start doubting him. But, then, he has this race against time too. Let’s see where it takes him.

      • I think Fed has 360 (US) + 360 (Shanghai) + 300 (Basel) + 800 (WTF) = 1820 points to defend..which is not that much..compare that to Novak – 1200 (USO) + 1000(Shanghai ) + 1500 (WTF) = 3700 points or Andy ( also maybe upwards 3000-3500)

  73. Fed goes down to #7 on Monday so there is a lot of pressure on him to stay in the top 10. One saving grace is that Tsonga is out injured and I don’t see anyone else posing a threat to Fed in that direction.

  74. Just a stat

    Did u know that of Rafas 58 titles only 7 are 250’s. Of Feds 77, 25 are 250’s. All of Rafa’s titles r high calibre

  75. Federer played the best match I have ever seen him play against Rafa. And Rafa said it in his presser: Fed brought new tactics today and guess whose tactics Fed pillaged, Djokovic’s! Fed was peppering Rafa’s backhand in the first set with success, I think because Rafa was surprised and needed time to adjust, which he did mid second set. All through the first set, Rafa could not find Fed’s backhand because Fed was doing a good job of protecting it. Then, inexplicably, Fed reverted to serve and volley which was the turning point and suicidal for Fed because Rafa had found his range and was passing him at will.

    The take out for me from this match was that Fed changed his tactics against Rafa, something he had steadfastly refused to do all through his career. Fed had always arrogantly believed his best could do the job against Rafa, wrong. Begs the question: what if Fed had the humility to change tactics before, what would the H2H be? Instead, here he is, when it is almost too late, changing his tactics…………….

    • RIB..Key chnage in tactic was topping his backhand and hitting it rather than slicing it, notice he barely sliced hs BH all match and serve n volley was another tactic so that he does not get drawn into long baseline duels.

      I think Fed agtting Rafas BH, well he has been trying to do this since long, nothing new. On clay and slower HC, Rafa gets time to get into position or run around to hit his FH etc, on faster HC he doesnt .

  76. Just finished watching the highlights and I’m really disgusted. I mean why did Fed suddenly changed his gameplan to foray to the net when he was holding pretty well from the baseline. No reason he wanted to kick himself after losing that serve in the 3rd set. Never seen him so much disgusted after being broken. That even showed when the 2 met at the net after the match. This was not usual Fedal at the nets after completion of the match. The handshakes and their talks were conspicous by its absence.

    • Yes I commented on it before above too. The handshake at the net was cold and very uncustomary to Fedal. I think Fed was a bit disgusted (maybe more at himself)

  77. Sanju, I still think rafa played too passively in set 1.. his backhand was shaky even on neutral balls..the rafa of montreal SF would have taken this one in 1 sets…Federer was great though, rafa’s discomfort in set 1 also had a lot to do with how aggressive Fed was playing…

    And as far as USO speed is concerned in comparison to Montrea/ cincy…do no think we can make any deductions unless the players experience it in 2013 ! Everyone thought cincy plays quicker than montreal but rafa said montreal was quicker this year so court speeds may vary over time…I am not sure if the courts in Toronto are similar to those in montreal…. anyway, I have always heard that USO’s surface was closer to montreal/toronto as its slower than cincy but now montreal played quicker (according to rafa) :O I do not think it would make a difference… One think for sure is that USO court is medium-fast paced now… paris has the quickest conditions as far as masters 1000 are concerned ..

  78. watching the fedal match again..rafa’s biggest worry in set 1 was ROS…he started reading the fed serve much better in set 2 and finally was all over it in set 3

    • Rafas form has dropped a bit from Montreal to Cinci and he is not as aggressive in Cincy as he was in Montreal..hope he gets back to his super aggressive avtaar in USO

      Same happ in Rome and RG..he seemed to peak in Rome semis n finals and suddenly regressed several notches n RG initial rounds

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