February wraps up with one of the busiest weeks on the tennis calendar: three tournaments, two of which are 500s. And those 500-point fields in Acapulco and Dubai are not disappointing, with Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev, Roger Federer, and Kei Nishikori among those in action. As usual, Sao Paulo—the final 250-point event on the Golden Swing—will be extremely overshadowed.
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
Where: Acapulco, Mexico
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $1,780,060
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
2018 champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)
Draw analysis: On paper, the Acapulco final is expected to be Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev. But it is the other Zverev brother—Mischa—against whom the second-ranked Spaniard will kick off his campaign this week. That is a friendly opener for Nadal as he gets back in action for the first time since finishing runner-up to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, but things will likely get tougher thereafter. Nick Kyrgios is a potential second-round opponent and Stan Wawrinka is a possible quarterfinal foe. John Isner, who is not in great form but remains dangerous every time he takes the court, also finds himself in the top half of the draw. On the other side, Zverev should benefit from a favorable path to the final while other contenders such as Frances Tiafoe and Alex de Minaur will try to spoil the party.
First-round upset alert: Marius Copil over (4) Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman has played a ton of tennis this year—13 matches to be exact. The Argentine got blown out by Marco Cecchinato in the Buenos Aires final and then retired from his Rio opener due to a leg issue. Now he is making a surface change to hard courts, which won’t help matters. Both the surface and the altitude will help Copil’s big-hitting game.
Hot: Alex de Minaur, Andreas Seppi, Mackenzie McDonald, Alexei Popyrin
Cold: John Isner, Steve Johnson, Adrian Mannarino, Ryan Harrison, Nick Kyrgios, Mischa Zverev
Quarterfinal predictions: Stan Wawrinka over Rafael Nadal, John Millman over Sam Querrey, Frances Tiafoe over Marius Copil, and Alexander Zverev over Alex de Minaur
Semifinals: Wawrinka over Millman and Zverev over Tiafoe
Final: Wawrinka over Zverev
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Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Where: Dubai, U.A.E.
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,736,845
Top seed: Kei Nishikori
Defending champion: Roberto Bautista Agut
Draw analysis: You know a field is absolutely loaded when Gael Monfils, Tomas Berdych, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Nikoloz Basilashvili are part of the unseeded contingent. That makes for a smorgasbord of intriguing first-round matchups, and those include Monfils vs. Marin Cilic, Basilashvili vs. Karen Khachanov, Federer vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nishikori vs. Benoit Paire, and Borna Coric vs. Marseille runner-up Mikhail Kukushkin. Following a date with Kohlschreiber, Federer will probably see his draw get more difficult: potentially Fernando Verdasco in round two and Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals. Nishikori is on a collision course for the quarters with Stefanos Tsitsipas, who just beat Kukushkin for the Marseille title. Look for Berdych, Bautista Agut, and a red-hot Daniil Medvedev to be among those trying to capitalize on relatively favorable spots in a mostly jam-packed bracket.
First-round upset alert: Nikoloz Basilashvili over (4) Karen Khachanov. Khachanov leads the head-to-head series 2-0 at the ATP level, but Basilashvili’s lower-tour victories (2014 Futures, 2016 Challenger) should not be overlooked. Moreover, Khachanov has struggled to build on a breakout 2018 campaign in which he was an alternate at the World Tour Finals. The Russian is a dreadful 2-4 in four tournament appearances.
Hot: Kei Nishikori, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Gael Monfils, Marton Fucsovics, Thomas Fabbiano, Ergor Gerasimov
Cold: Karen Khachanov, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Benoit Paire
Quarterfinal predictions: Kei Nishikori over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev over Marin Cilic, Tomas Berdych over Roberto Bautista Agut, and Roger Federer over Milos Raonic
Semifinals: Medvedev over Nishikori and Federer over Berdych
Final: Federer over Medvedev
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Brasil Open
Where: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $550,145
Top seed: Joao Sousa
2018 champion: Fabio Fognini (not playing)
Draw analysis: Felix Auger-Aliassime made a surprising run to the Rio de Janeiro final, ousting Fabio Fognini and Pablo Cuevas en route. Fognini is not defending his Sao Paulo title, but Auger-Aliassime has a rematch with Cuevas right off the bat. Rio champion Laslo Djere is also getting right back in gear, and 23-year-old Serb’s draw is a kind one such that he may keep winning and face either Cuevas, Auger-Aliassime, or Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the quarterfinals. Look no further than the top four seeds with byes (Joao Sousa, Malek Jaziri, Guido Pella, and Leonardo Mayer) to know that that title is completely up for grabs. Just about everyone is in with chance.
First-round upset alert: Felix Auger-Aliassime over (5) Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas probably should get the job done; and actually the chances are he will. The revenge factor for last week’s Rio loss to Auger-Aliassime cannot be discounted, and benefiting from an extra day of rest (the 18-year-old Canadian had to play the final on Sunday) will only help the Uruguayan. Still, Auger-Aliassime is supremely confident right now and he is obviously capable of pulling off another minor upset.
Hot: Juan Ignacio Londero, Laslo Djere, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hugo Dellien
Cold: Federico Delbonis, Marco Trungelliti, Facundo Bagnis
Semifinal predictions: Jaume Munar over Joao Sousa and Guido Pella over Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Final: Pella over Munar
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