Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are one round away from a final showdown in Doha. The top two seeds first have to get past Tomas Berdych and Illya Marchenko, respectively, in Friday’s semifinals.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Tomas Berdych
Djokovic and Berdych will be meeting for the 24th time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at an overwhelming 21-2 in favor of Djokovic, who has won eight in a row at Berdych’s expense dating back to the summer of 2013 (the Czech last prevailed three years ago on the clay courts of Rome). Berdych has never defeated the world No. 1 on a hard court. They faced each other four times last season, with Djokovic winning in Dubai, Monte-Carlo, Paris, and at the World Tour Finals.
Amazingly, this Doha event marked the only occasion on which Djokovic failed to reach a final in 2015. He lost to Ivo Karlovic in the quarterfinals, but he was not about to do the same against Leonardo Mayer this time around. Although Mayer led by a break in each set on Thursday, Djokovic got the job done 6-3, 7-5. The top-seeded Serb preceded that effort with consecutive 6-2, 6-2 beatdowns of Dustin Brown and Fernando Verdasco. Berdych has advanced with straight-set defeats of Sergiy Stakhovsky, Damir Dzumhur, and Kyle Edmund. The sixth-ranked Czech finished runner-up to David Ferrer at this tournament last year, so he has to be feeling comfortable in Doha. But he has no such feelings with Djokovic on other side of the net, and another relatively straightforward affair should be in the cards.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
[polldaddy poll=9261816]
Illya Marchenko vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
It has been a dream start to the season for Marchenko, who did not reach a single ATP semifinal in 2015. In fact, he has already equaled his ATP tournament match win total from all of last year (three, and one of those wins last season came via retirement). Marchenko’s week began with a 6-7(8), 6-3, 6-2 upset of defending champion David Ferrer and he has not looked back. The 94th-ranked Ukrainian ousted Teymuraz Gabashvili in the second round and Jeremy Chardy in the quarters, both in straight sets. But Marchenko took an injury timeout for a back problem late in his contest against Chardy and afterward he did not sound like he felt 100 percent.
This will be the underdog’s first career shot at Nadal, who has endured a few scares of his own in Doha. The fifth-ranked Spaniard recovered from a set deficit to beat countryman Pablo Carreno Busta, rolled Robin Haase 6-3, 6-2, and held off Andrey Kuznetsov 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 on Thursday. This would normally be a dangerous matchup for Nadal, as Marchenko–not unlike Kuznetsov–is taking huge cuts at the ball on every opportunity and playing with absolutely nothing to lose this week. But this is likely where the run ends, with or without a back injury.
Pick: Nadal in 2
[polldaddy poll=9261738]
who ya got?
Because of injury of the opponent, Rafole in two.
Yes, that’s the reason that I am picking Rafa to win in 2 sets. If Marchenko is dealing with a back problem, then this should be a straightforward match for Rafa. It should be straightforward period, but Rafa had some trouble with PCB and also Kuznetsov. However, I think he’s going to get it done in 2 sets this time.
Novak over Berdy in 2 sets.
Ok I had no clue about the injury. I said Rafa in 3 but now that I found out about the back problem with Marchenko I think Rafa will probably win in straights. Not gonna change my pick because I don’t like going back to change because usually it backfires lol. Anyways can’t wait for these semifinals. Surprised at how close it got between Nole and Leo.
This is why Ricky is paid the (virtual) big bucks.
Do you?
“With or without back injury”…true…
Rafa in 2 unless Marchenko is faking injury and starts playing like it’s his last which again would not mean a victory for him just a more difficult win for Rafa…
If Birdman was smart enough to notice that Novak does not feel like playing his A game he would be able to capitalize on it…but Birdy will just be himself: the King of Chokeland…Novak in 2, but failing to serve for the set at least once…?
hahaha…could see Marchenko try something like that!
Berdych will be keen for the fight; so, Nole in 2 tight sets or 3, serious.
Rafa in 2.
Ilya Marchenko back in the top 100 is good for him. Hope his injury isn’t serious.
Novak in 3 and Rafa in 3 unless Marchenko is injured.
Rafa should concentrate on holding his serve, the rest will follow. Marchenko has been pushing himself to the limits; if his back is sore, all the better for Rafa.
#taking cover already
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/rafael-nadal-ready-to-wreak-havoc-at-australian-open-with-new-stringing/news-story/1612f7ec23f846722662e1476b1acb46
AT 8:57 AM,
I wrote about changing the strings here:
https://tenngrand.com/2016/01/05/doha-r2-previews-and-picks-djokovic-nadal/comment-page-2/#comment-73384
https://tenngrand.com/2016/01/05/doha-r2-previews-and-picks-djokovic-nadal/comment-page-2/#comment-73405
Preach it, Rafa! Those of you who tend to diminish Rafa’s chances in the AO writting Rafa off already should read this article with focus on the second part and Rafa’s take on the Kuznetsov match…
Vamos Champ! ❤️
What did he say that we had not already known? He kept saying, just like you, that its good he won matches like this when in 2015 he was losing them.
But, how many times already he had said the same thing? Since what? Shanghai or Basel or WTF? How many tournaments and matches gone by already and how many matches he had to fight hard to win in three sets already? It seems that he’s just happy and contented that he came through in the end.
Perhaps he was thinking a win is a win it doesnt matter how he gets there. Or perhaps he’s being realistic and realized his own limitations unlike some of us.
Maybe we are too harsh on him, setting unrealistic expectations about him reaching his previous good level so soon; or maybe he knows deep down he’s not going to be the same and so is just happy that he still can get a win if he fights hard.
His serve pattern is too predictable, making his opponent yesterday seemed so great when returning. I remember Rafa facing similar problems vs other players too, so imo its not Kuznetsov returning well but rather its Rafa serving too predictably.
It does no favor to speak or think in different way, you will always argue… I guess both Grosjean and I see something non existant in Rafa’s game…so be it…
We will just have to agree to disagree…I think Rafa is improving and I like him being in the semis instead of losing in the first round…I love his high first serve %, I appreciate his return on second serve being 1.5 metres closer than last year…I am impressed with his never give up attitude being back and I particularly like his return winners…
I could go on with his BH DTL winners and FHs being deeper and more accurate than whole last year…but that’s just silly me…and the Grosjean…??
Nope, nobody denies about those improvements. Read my earlier comments in that PCB thread, I’d already noted all those improvements. It seems you dont get the gist of what we are ‘lamenting’ about.
He can have all the improvements but if with those improvements he’s still making life difficult for himself even when in a winning position, then thats worrying if his ambition is to win slams.
Dont compare to last year at Doha, that’s one year ago. Compare to end of last season and see whether he has any improvement. He struggled to beat Dimi, Cilic, Anderson,Ferrer but they’re quality opponents. Kuznetsov, PCB are not in that same class, and he’s still struggling to beat them. We are just one and a half weeks away from the AO, he struggles(d) to win BO3 matches, can he do better in BO5? So, thats the worry.
Lucky gets it.
Improved from a year ago nobody would argue.
Ready to deal with Nole, win a slam competing at his best level, no not yet.
The confidence and consistency is not where it needs to be.
Today and tomorrow will be a truer barometer.
Confidence comes with winning. It cannot be built up just by willing oneself to be confident. Imagine if Rafa had insisted last year that his confidence is sky high, he is playing better than ever? Even at the outset he cautioned us not to expect a return like in 2013. He said he is 2 years older and will take longer to get into winning ways. Rafa is a realist and he is honest and open.He hasn’t said he will win. He has only promised us that he will work hard, really hard to keep on improving.
No kidding. You think?
Again, I disagree…Rafa has always had trouble dealing with young guns…nothing new there…most of the posters here claimed he was losing matches last year mostly on the mental part…he IS NOT losing them in the same fashion any more…what makes you think he will not be ready to play well at the AO? You base it on him playing three sets with those who played well…I agree that Rafa is not at the top of his game yet…but that is the price he pays for implementing changes in his game.,,well, you don’t see it, obviously…you think what you want but don’t try to change my mind and please let me enjoy the fact that Rafa is in the semis…?
Mary W (AT 2:16 PM) gets it.
lucky,
I am with you and understand that your concern comes from caring about Rafa and wanting the best for him.
Keep calm, stay focused, remain confident, be strong and fight bravely, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYMM8NjUQAAoDev.png
The doubles team of Feliciano Lopez & Marc Lopez won the Doha title.
Vamos Feli! Vamos Marc!
Rafa’s match will start soon.
Nats, you’re the one trying to convince others, not me trying to convince you.
If I’ve not seen him implemented some changes I wont have posted what I thought in that PCB thread. You said he’s not playing at the top of his game yet, so what make you think all of a sudden he would do so come the AO? I foresee him struggling in five sets even in the early rounds at the AO, just like his 2015 match vs Smyczek, if he continues to lose set(s) after being in winning positions.
Rafa was struggling against Isner and played five sets in FO and ended up winning it…your point is ???
I am not trying to convince anyone anything! I am just expressing my opinion and being pleased with Rafa winning Abhu Dabi and playing semis here! What is wrong with that?!You are the one jumping on everything I said..,I simply disagree with you and live with it…
Nope I dont jump on you, you’re the one jumping to my comment first. We can agree to disagree, thats it!
PS You’re comparing Rafa at FO to Rafa at the AO??
Yes! Why not? You are the one who thinks Rafa can only play on clay and the rest is fluke! I don’t…i have always thought Rafa would win more AOs if there were no injury interruptions.,,
Please dont accuse me of anything. I certainly didnt think Rafa winning anything other than clay, including the AO, were flukes.
If you’re not part of the Rafa Politburo, you get a lot of… attention.
Won’t be long before Lucky remembers why she stopped posting here. That would be a real shame and a loss to this site IMO.
You are not fair! I have always appreciated lucky’s comments and analysis and I think she is great at it! We can always agree to disagree, that’s what forums are about!
But you seem to take sides and insert comments that lead to some sort of a fight! Why do you enjoy doing so is beyond me…I so much enjoyed your posts and comments before you turned up to be nothing but sarcastic…I am sure you can do better than that…
Just saw this now.
I’m sorry you feel this way nats as I always usually enjoy your posts so much as well.
However here you are misrepresenting what lucky is saying and you did the same with nny earlier using straawman arguments which I’ve not seen you do before unlike the rest of the Politburo.
I still love the passion you have for Rafa and you are a great fan and poster here.
Vamos!
AT 5:50 PM,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYN50wcWEAEbbU_.png
LOL
Rafa leads 3:0
Vamos Rafa!
I don’t have tennistv for this match, so will have to try and follow live scores. It sounds like Rafa has gotten off to a good start.
I just checked the score and it’s 5-2 Rafa!
It’s 5-3 now. I hope that Rafa can close this set out easily.
Rafa won the first set 6-3! Way to go!
holds for 1-1 in the second
Rafa won 100% of his 1st serve points.
Djoker finished his practice early today because he has a leg problem.
# mind games
Looks like it maybe a Rafa vs Berdy final!!!
no
Well let us see. Que sera sera.
No sign of back injury for Marchenko, as I thought…he is moving very well…
Like the way Rafa serving today, serving with more pace, foregoing first serve in % and concentrates on winning the first serve point. Had he done this yesterday, Kuznetsov might not return that many serves.
he saved BP to consolidate
So he learned from losing a set to Kutz yesterday.
Vamos!
lucky,
Thanks for your observations. It’s good to hear that Rafa served well. His stats bear that out. Also 6 aces!
What a milestone! 99th final! Great way to start off the new year.
GSM – Nadal!
Vaaaaaammmmoooossss!
He took Nadline’s advice and cut on his UEs! ?
Way to go, Champ! Your 99th final! ❤️❤️❤️
Vamos!!!
That was a sterling performance by the great man!
Vamos!
winner: R. Nadal (ESP)
With this win, Rafa has reached his 99th career final!
Vamos Rafa!
Rafa riched his 99th final! WOOHOO!
http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/happy/woohoo-smiley-emoticon.gif
Correction: reached
We all feel “rich” when Rafa reaches a final!!!
Mary W (AT 4:53 PM),
🙂
The match stats:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYNoK4CWkAA8o2m.png
Congratulations to Rafa on reaching the final! Well done! From what I read here, it sounds like he played much better in this match.
He didn’t listen to the doomsayers!
Ha, he listened and improved! Rafa prefers people telling him the truth even though the truth sometimes may hurt.
Berdych 3-2. It could have been (and probably needed to be for his sake) 4-1.
Luckystar (AT 5:20 PM),
In a recent interview, Rafa said:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX-ggybWAAAMIld.jpg
YOU should follow Rafa’s own advice.
AT 5:52 PM,
I have followed Rafa’s advice – I have been his fan.
lucky,
Right on! 🙂
Berdych is pretty disappointing; Novak is playing at 50/60% and yet Berdych couldnt even capitalize on that. Now back on serve.
He’s gone off the boil
A very boring match this one. Berdych has absolutely no belief. I wonder what he was doing during the off season. From a 3-1 lead he can lose it 4-6, against a subpar Novak.
Berdych has no hope of winning a slam, unlike Stan. Stan has the weapons and the belief, has no fear of the big four. Berdych OTOH, fears both Novak and Rafa.
If Berdych had made the final at the AO in 2014 he would have won it instead of Stan because Rafa was injured.
Djoker’s matches are so boring. I didn’t watch the whole match, I just checked the score every now and again.
The thing is he couldnt even get past Stan in the SF that year, so he couldnt have that advantage.
As I expected Novak isn’t in a mood for his A game yet Berdy serves it on a plate for him…poor Berdy…he will never learn..
Could not get a stream for this match. Is Nole going to make it?
Congrats Rafa and Nole!
Berdych toils the whole night and yet has nothing to show! There’s no way he can beat Novak in a TB, Novak and Fed are the two best players in TBs.
Berdych certainly earns his Birdbrain nickname, why does he keep hitting right back at Novak? Cant he move his legs and hit the other direction instead? His H2H with Novak is getting very embarrassing, even Ferrer fares better vs Novak.
Yes, certainly so, when The Berd faces Nole. Nole could play on one leg, left handed…
ratcliff,
LOL! I am trying to picture Novak playing on one leg, left handed!
Great descriptive analogy! Unfortunately for Berdy, quite true!
lucky,
See, you are an equal opportunity critic. You are taking Berdy to task for his effort against Novak.
Up until the 2015 AO when Berdy finally beat Rafa again, he was the same way whenever he played Rafa. He lost the match before he even walked out on the court. I think that his victory over Rafa at that time was a one-off. It was amazing that Rafa even got to the quarterfinals after being out for so long.
Berdy’s biggest weakness is between the ears, in my opinion. He’s got the game, but just doesn’t have that mental strength.
I checked the score online for Novak/Berdy. At least Berdy took it to a tb in that second set.
So we have Rafa and Novak in the final! I am looking forward to it.
Let’s see how it all shakes out!
Vamos Rafa all the way!