Doha SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Nadal vs. Marchenko

Rafa 2Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are one round away from a final showdown in Doha. The top two seeds first have to get past Tomas Berdych and Illya Marchenko, respectively, in Friday’s semifinals.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Tomas Berdych

Djokovic and Berdych will be meeting for the 24th time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at an overwhelming 21-2 in favor of Djokovic, who has won eight in a row at Berdych’s expense dating back to the summer of 2013 (the Czech last prevailed three years ago on the clay courts of Rome). Berdych has never defeated the world No. 1 on a hard court. They faced each other four times last season, with Djokovic winning in Dubai, Monte-Carlo, Paris, and at the World Tour Finals.

Amazingly, this Doha event marked the only occasion on which Djokovic failed to reach a final in 2015. He lost to Ivo Karlovic in the quarterfinals, but he was not about to do the same against Leonardo Mayer this time around. Although Mayer led by a break in each set on Thursday, Djokovic got the job done 6-3, 7-5. The top-seeded Serb preceded that effort with consecutive 6-2, 6-2 beatdowns of Dustin Brown and Fernando Verdasco. Berdych has advanced with straight-set defeats of Sergiy Stakhovsky, Damir Dzumhur, and Kyle Edmund. The sixth-ranked Czech finished runner-up to David Ferrer at this tournament last year, so he has to be feeling comfortable in Doha. But he has no such feelings with Djokovic on other side of the net, and another relatively straightforward affair should be in the cards.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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Illya Marchenko vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

It has been a dream start to the season for Marchenko, who did not reach a single ATP semifinal in 2015. In fact, he has already equaled his ATP tournament match win total from all of last year (three, and one of those wins last season came via retirement). Marchenko’s week began with a 6-7(8), 6-3, 6-2 upset of defending champion David Ferrer and he has not looked back. The 94th-ranked Ukrainian ousted Teymuraz Gabashvili in the second round and Jeremy Chardy in the quarters, both in straight sets. But Marchenko took an injury timeout for a back problem late in his contest against Chardy and afterward he did not sound like he felt 100 percent.

This will be the underdog’s first career shot at Nadal, who has endured a few scares of his own in Doha. The fifth-ranked Spaniard recovered from a set deficit to beat countryman Pablo Carreno Busta, rolled Robin Haase 6-3, 6-2, and held off Andrey Kuznetsov 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 on Thursday. This would normally be a dangerous matchup for Nadal, as Marchenko–not unlike Kuznetsov–is taking huge cuts at the ball on every opportunity and playing with absolutely nothing to lose this week. But this is likely where the run ends, with or without a back injury.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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36 Comments on Doha SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Nadal vs. Marchenko

  1. Like the way Rafa serving today, serving with more pace, foregoing first serve in % and concentrates on winning the first serve point. Had he done this yesterday, Kuznetsov might not return that many serves.

    • He took Nadline’s advice and cut on his UEs! ?

      Way to go, Champ! Your 99th final! ❤️❤️❤️

      Vamos!!!

  2. Congratulations to Rafa on reaching the final! Well done! From what I read here, it sounds like he played much better in this match.

  3. Berdych is pretty disappointing; Novak is playing at 50/60% and yet Berdych couldnt even capitalize on that. Now back on serve.

  4. A very boring match this one. Berdych has absolutely no belief. I wonder what he was doing during the off season. From a 3-1 lead he can lose it 4-6, against a subpar Novak.

    Berdych has no hope of winning a slam, unlike Stan. Stan has the weapons and the belief, has no fear of the big four. Berdych OTOH, fears both Novak and Rafa.

    • If Berdych had made the final at the AO in 2014 he would have won it instead of Stan because Rafa was injured.

      Djoker’s matches are so boring. I didn’t watch the whole match, I just checked the score every now and again.

  5. As I expected Novak isn’t in a mood for his A game yet Berdy serves it on a plate for him…poor Berdy…he will never learn..

  6. Berdych toils the whole night and yet has nothing to show! There’s no way he can beat Novak in a TB, Novak and Fed are the two best players in TBs.

    Berdych certainly earns his Birdbrain nickname, why does he keep hitting right back at Novak? Cant he move his legs and hit the other direction instead? His H2H with Novak is getting very embarrassing, even Ferrer fares better vs Novak.

      • ratcliff,

        LOL! I am trying to picture Novak playing on one leg, left handed!

        Great descriptive analogy! Unfortunately for Berdy, quite true!

    • lucky,

      See, you are an equal opportunity critic. You are taking Berdy to task for his effort against Novak.

      Up until the 2015 AO when Berdy finally beat Rafa again, he was the same way whenever he played Rafa. He lost the match before he even walked out on the court. I think that his victory over Rafa at that time was a one-off. It was amazing that Rafa even got to the quarterfinals after being out for so long.

      Berdy’s biggest weakness is between the ears, in my opinion. He’s got the game, but just doesn’t have that mental strength.

  7. I checked the score online for Novak/Berdy. At least Berdy took it to a tb in that second set.

    So we have Rafa and Novak in the final! I am looking forward to it.

    Let’s see how it all shakes out!

    Vamos Rafa all the way!

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