Doha R1 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Ferrer vs. Marchenko

January 4, 2016 Ricky Match previews 85

FerrerA whole host of Spaniards will be featured during first-round action in Doha on Tuesday. Rafael Nadal is going up against Pablo Carreno Busta, while David Ferrer is facing Ukrainian Illya Marchenko.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will officially kick off his 2016 singles campaign when he takes the court with Carreno Busta on Tuesday evening at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. The two friends, fellow Spaniards, and occasional doubles partners will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. They previously faced each other last season on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro, where Nadal prevailed 7-5, 6-3.

The No. 2 seed’s preparation for this debut match has been solid. Last week in a six-man Abu Dhabi exhibition event, Nadal captured the title with defeats of David Ferrer and Milos Raonic. He also got a match under his belt in Doha on Monday, losing in doubles with Fernando Verdasco 6-7(4), 6-4, 11-9 to Teymuraz Gabashvili and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Carreno Busta is coming off a solid but unspectacular 2015 campaign. He won 14 ATP-level matches, reached three Challenger finals (two titles), and finished at 67th in the world. Some entertaining baseline battles should be on display in this one, but for the most part Nadal will likely enjoy one-way traffic.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

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Illya Marchenko vs. (4) David Ferrer

Ferrer’s season will begin with a title defense, as the Spaniard triumphed last year in Doha by benefiting from a rare loss by Novak Djokovic to beat Ivo Karlovic in the semis and Tomas Berdych in the final. It was one of five titles for Ferrer during what was an impressive and underrated 2015 campaign. The world No. 7 booked a spot in the World Tour Finals despite missing two months–including Wimbledon and the entire American hard-court swing prior to the U.S. Open–because of an elbow injury. Ferrer played last week in Abu Dhabi, double-breadsticking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga before falling to Nadal in three sets.

Up first for Ferrer on Tuesday is Marchenko, whom the 33-year-old has never faced. This is a somewhat rare ATP-level, main-draw appearance for Marchenko, who registers at 94th in the rankings and spent most of his time on the Challenger circuit last season. A second-round performance at the U.S. Open as a qualifier followed by consistent success in Challengers helped the Ukrainian storm into the top 100. But this a steep step up in competition, and a well-prepared Ferrer should cruise.

Pick: Ferrer in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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85 Comments on Doha R1 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Ferrer vs. Marchenko

  2. I get so upset at Rafa immediately giving up his service games when up a break… that is huge issue. He needs to deal with it…it is really becoming an ugly pattern…

    Rafa in 2 is my prediction…Ferry in 2 as well

    Reply

        • Last week, Rafa said “mental problem” referring to his issues last year.

          When you chronically surrender a service break, that’s mental, not physical.

          “Mental problem” was the phrase used by RAFA.

          I believe him.

          As Rafa said, others are not as honest as him. For example, extreme so called fans have made up stories about “only joking” and not to believe him.

          Reply

          • He is not “only joking” as someone wants you to believe.

            “Mental problem” is his words, not mine as someone wants you to believe.

            I put in CAPS Rafa’s reference to his mental problem for your convenience.

            Rafa said:

            ‘At the end ,the only thing to do is to accept the problem and work in order to find a solution. It was not easy, I needed some months but you arrive at a point where you relax and say: well, I will play tennis, because it’s not that I forgot how to do it, no? It was a mental question, and in a situation like this it’s impossible to play tennis well. I hadn’t had fear. If I had had fear I would not have been ashamed to say it, because I am not a person who doesn’t admit these things, but it was not fear. It was a strange situation that you couldn’t control; like respiration and time. When you don’t succeed to control these two things, when you do not know where the ball will bounce, it’s because mentally you are worried; that’s caused by anxiety. But I am world no. 5 and it’s not that bad.

            ‘When I fail normally, I accept it. When you have a MENTAL PROBLEM; it’s not that you accept these situations less or in a worst way, but you can’t analyze these well, clearly. Every loss influenced me a lot; this year every failure was like three failures; and I had a lack of confidence.’

          • Rafa has always said it was MENTAL problem…nothing new in this regard…it’s just the way we chose to interpret the cause of it…

            I say it’s because Rafa still can’t trust his own game…his service is easily exploited by his rivals (read: his service is no force or no threat to anyone right now and even tends to desert him when needed the most…); his FHs are not there yet, mainly I would say due to his deteriorated movements…it becomes obvious that he has worked so hard to improve his BHs and they are no longer a big liability but rather his strong weapon…lastly, he is not as fast as he used to be…some adjustment simply must come…I think both Rafa and his team are aware of it but I tend to believe it is more difficult to implement significant changes in Rafa’s case than for any other player…and the surface does not help either…I believe Rafa will feel much more confident implementing those changes on clay…

            Rafa has had so many comebacks and he had always emerged victorious…this was the first time he could not meet his OWN expectations! This is where this whole problem comes from…once he starts beating top three players he will start trusting his own game again…it’s a process…

            I disapprove when Rafa claims he “got lucky” when wining a match…in a way he diminishes his own accomplishments…

          • natashao2013 JANUARY 4, 2016 AT 4:47 PM
            —Rafa has always said it was MENTAL problem…nothing new in this regard…it’s just the way we chose to interpret the cause of it…—
            ===
            .
            The local armchair doctor, hawk, is constantly constructing his personal interpretations & delivering a diagnosis to Rafa. Nothing new in this regard. He has polluted more than one thread.

          • You need to get out more.

            The interview was in Spanish and Rafa’s own words were “un problema mental”.

            Not mine.

  4. Same old problem with Rafa, always couldnt sustain a good level, not helped by a partner who’s playing so poorly.

    Novak OTOH doesnt have such a problem, sent Dustin Brown packing in 51 mins at 6-2, 6-2 scoreline. Brown is only good on grass, no where else, wonder how he survives in the tour.

    Reply

  6. I can’t see the doubles match with Rafa, so I assume from this comment that he lost. Novak’s win was as I thought it would be with him losing less than 7 games. I guess he’s ready.

    It’s true about Brown. He really hasn’t done anything off the grass.

    Reply

  10. Ferrer match could go on forever. I hope Ferrer is in Djoko’s quarter in AO. My crystal ball says that will ensure Djoko doesn’t win AO. But it becomes opaque when I look for the champion. Rafa? Muzz? Stan? Fed? Or someone new?

    Reply

  11. Since 2008, Nole has won 28 of 29 sets vs Ferrer on hard court going 12-0 in the process.

    And you question Ricky’s logic.

    Reply

      • I watched the first game of set 1 and rafa was killing the ball. I had to go then. WHAT THE HECK happened after that? losing in a tie break!?

        He is playing well right now as well

        Reply

        • Just a few too many defensive points in the TB cost him the set.

          Both held their own serves well.

          Rafa yielded just nine points on his serve in the 1st set and that includes the 2-3 points he lost in the TB.

          Rafa just failed to consolidate his early break in the third set – mental problem.

          Reply

          • hawkeye,

            Thanks for the breakdown of what happened in the second set. Since I can’t see it, then at least I know what happened and why this match went to three sets.

  18. Rafa breaks back.

    Three breaks in a row.

    Ricky, I propose that the rest of this match discussion be moved to the newly created WTA page.

    Reply

  19. I think Ricky quite logically picked Nole to win Doha for lack of anyone else in the draw to pick. You don’t pick a player who could win. Any player CAN win. You pick the player you believe is most likely to win given current form, conditions, draws and recent meetings.

    LOL yet another BP for PCB when Rafa tries to consolidate again.

    How many times???

    #MentalProblemsAreEverywhere

    Reply

  20. Unbelievable, Rafa is so much better, he is playing well and yet being tentative and making uncharacteristic errors on key points…

    Reply

  21. unlike in 2015, rafa is able to find the answers thanks to a series of thunderous returns and backhands and forehands 🙂

    Reply

  22. He lost to Berrer in a frustrating performance last year and he finds the answers in a similar situation this year. That is what matters the most. Good job, rafa. There is work to do but each of these victories mean a lot.

    Reply

      • I can’t see the match, since the tennis channel isn’t even showing Doha at all. So I came here to read the thoughts on this match. I certainly never thought it would go 3 sets!

        Reply

  23. Pablo has been playing well lately so I didn’t expect it to be easy but Rafa needs matches where he has to find answers.

    I tried to get tickets but their website is impossible. I’m watching it on TV in Dubai which enables me to spend more time with my family.

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  24. Based on what I watched in set 3 and some statistics I saw , here are my observations:

    – At the moment, rafa is not consistent enough with his new game plan. He gets in terminator mode for a few games but then makes bad errors.

    -Rafa’s mental strength seems to be getting back. He faced adversity with ‘colm’ and found a way easily at the end.

    – Rafa is absolutely determined to execute his new game plan. He was not backing off in terms of return positioning even when he was not having the best of results.

    -Part of rafa’s new game plan is to return serve from closer to the baseline on a consistent basis. THAT comes with a price. The depth on returns, esp second serve returns matter more than ever now! IF he hits a short return or a mediocre return, his opponents are able to hit winners dictate more easily because rafa can’t defend that well from so close to the baseline.
    In set 1, they showed that his return placement was hardly beyond the service line. In set 2, it was much closer to the baseline and hence there was the difference. For his super aggressive baseline gameplan to work, he MUST get good length on second serve returns!

    – Rafa’s backhand DTL has improved. So far, it seems to be that way. Would like to see more but it appears he is penetrating the court better and using it as a weapon more often.

    Reply

    • “For his super aggressive baseline gameplan to work, he MUST get good length on second serve returns!”

      He used to consistently get good length on his returns.

      This is not a new problem. It’s how he lost RG ’09 to Soderling.

      Reply

      • Hawkeye, yes you are right, but this is different. If his ROS positioning is well behind the baseline, he is more likely to get away with mediocre returns because he always has a chance to retrieve and pull out the magical shot from well behind the baseline. When he is returning from inside the baseline and hits a mediocre return, he does not even have a chance to defend too much and retrieve! So, it is crucial that he gets good-great length on returns so that he can start rallies either with an advantage or at least on level grounds.

        Reply

        • mmmm, yes to some degree but I don’t think it’s significantly better either way.

          Leave a ball short against any top player, and you’ll likely lose the point regardless of positioning.

          Reply

      • AT 7:17 PM,
        —It’s how he lost RG ’09 to Soderling—
        ===
        .
        Someone is yet again making attempts to rewrite Rafa’s (hi)story!

        Reply

        • No, you are wrong again.

          Rafa left many points short against Soderling in that match.

          More made up stories from you.

          All you know about tennis is who won or lost (and you can read the rule book).

          Reply

          • Very first video of “highlights” from this match is a horrible drop shot left hanging from Rafa.

            Very next point three consecutive short balls from Rafa.

            Most of the points in this video Rafa is guilty of hitting short balls near the service line when he usually wouldn’t.

            He was not himself and I remember watching the match wondering why so many points were hit short.

            Maybe he was “only joking” according to you.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpaeA_g5hx4

    • vamosrafa,

      Thanks for posting your observations. You know that I have confidence in what you have to say. It sounds like a mixed bag with Rafa at the moment.

      Reply

  26. Let’s not be mistaken to think Rafa did not play well! He served extremely well, he was returning well, his BHs were amazing most of the time, made some errors from the FH side but overall very steady and strong showing…the only flaws I see is his tentativeness on his own serve when up a break…at some point I noticed Rafa hit great winners out of anger! I think that’s what he needs…to prove to himself that he is so much better than his opponent! Rafa needs to believe in his own game…

    Reply

  27. backing of* (third point, line 1)

    Also, rafa may well have found renewed self-belief and faith but the confidence needed to win match after match will only come as a result of getting a good number of matches under his belt. There is no alternative. He needs to win some matches with good feelings and that is when the ‘package’ will reach completion. Every aspect of his game will get a boost as a result of that confidence catalyst.

    Reply

  28. RT Ricky Dimon: “Manuel Messina asks Nadal if he wants the instructions in English. Nadal says: no thanks”
    RT Genny SS: “In fact, Messina offered English and Italian…. and ended up talking in Italian.”
    __
    Rafa speaks Italian. Here he gives an interview in Italian (in May 2015):
    http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2uwfmx_rafael-nadal-s-interview-with-adriano-panatta-in-italian_sport
    (Adriano Panatta is a former tennis player from Italy, the winner of Roland Garros 1976)

    Reply

  29. Didnt watch the match.

    Regarding Rafa’s ROS, when he played against Raonic at Abu Dhabi, he was so smart with his ROS, varying his return positions, keeping Raonic guessing and hesitating where to place his serves. Raonic ended up having to serve more second serves and played into Rafa’s hands.Rafa can vary his return positions, not necessary must be right at the baseline even for returning second serves.

    I do feel that Rafa has been hitting some very solid BH DTL this start of season. It seems that he and his camp have finally realized that he does need a BHDTL now that he’s slower to run around his BH to hit his FH DTL.

    He’s serving well but it seems that he always has a lull mid way through his matches and messed up, still tense at crucial moments.

    I do realize that he’s hitting flatter FHs at Abu Dhabi, those that followed through across his body, not above his head and they were more penetrating.

    He’s willing to move forward more often but couldnt keep up for a whole match, reverting to old way of playing mid match, so I agree with VR that Rafa needs to press on with his new way of playing until it becomes a habit and his adopted style.

    Reply

  31. In fact, Rafa played better as the match progressed. His serving percentage increased to high 85% in Set 3. So I don’t think he was reverting to his old style of play mid match. His problem is failing to convert break points and still feeling tense on key points. He messed up but he was also able to hit extraordinary winners! when the match was over the commentator said ” This was Rafa of old that we saw today! If he continues playing like this he will go deep in the tourney”…

    Reply

  32. Rafa looked like he was hitting really well to be honest. I predict a top 3 spot for Rafa by the end of the season. And a win at RG.

    Reply

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