February is a marathon not a sprint, and yet another week with three tournaments on the schedule has arrived with the beginning of tournaments in Doha, Los Cabos, and Rio de Janeiro. Among the players in action are Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Carlos Alcaraz.
Let’s break down the upcoming busy week on the ATP Tour.
Qatar ExxonMobil Open
Where: Doha, Qatar
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $1,395,875
Top seed: Andrey Rublev
2023 champion: Daniil Medvedev (not playing)
Draw analysis: Rublev lost somewhat early in Rotterdam (in the quarterfinals to Alex de Minaur), but he has a good chance to make amends in Doha. The fifth-ranked Russian is the top seed at this ATP 250 tournament and clearly the best player in the field. That’s not to say he will be handed the trophy—or more specifically the falcon—on a silver platter. A red-hot Ugo Humbert is a potential semifinal opponent for Rublev, while veterans Andy Murray and Gael Monfils also find themselves in the top half of the draw.
Without Rublev and Humbert, the bottom half is less top heavy but much deeper. No. 2 seed Karen Khachanov could be challenged by the likes of Alexander Bublik, Tallon Griekspoor, Emil Ruusuvuori, Alexei Popyrin, Marton Fucsovics, and Roberto Bautista Agut. Griekspoor is coming off a semifinal run in Rotterdam, where he defeated Ruusuvuori in the quarters.
Quarterfinal predictions: Andrey Rublev over Jakub Mensik, Ugo Humbert over Zhizhen Zhang, Tallon Griekspoor over Marton Fucsovics, and Emil Ruusuvuori over Karen Khachanov
Semifinals: Rublev over Humbert and Griekspoor over Ruusuvuori
Final: Rublev over Griekspoor
Mifel Tennis Open
Where: Los Cabos, Mexico
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $915,245
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Draw analysis: Los Cabos has moved from its summer spot on the calendar to form a bit of a mini-Mexican swing with next week’s festivities in Acapulco. Whereas competitors previously would be getting ready for the U.S. Open, now they are preparing for the Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami. Unsurprisingly, Los Cabos has once again attracted a field loaded with star power. It features Zverev, Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur, and Casper Ruud, plus the depth is decent, too, thanks in part to unseeded players like Jack Draper, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Dan Evans, Alex Michelsen, Marcos Giron, and Matteo Arnaldi.
The top four seeds are without question the men to beat in Los Cabos and Tsitsipas has an ideal draw, but the other three could face early danger. Ruud likely awaits an in-form Giron in his opening match, De Minaur can expect to see Michelsen on the other side of the net in round two, and Zverev is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with Draper. Overall, given De Minaur’s impressive current form and Tsitsipas’ friendly draw, a rematch of last year’s final is possible if not even probable.
Quarterfinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Jack Draper, Alex de Minaur over Jordan Thompson, Matteo Arnaldi over Marcos Giron, and Stefanos Tsitsipas over Miomir Kecmanovic
Semifinals: De Minaur over Zverev and Tsitsipas over Arnaldi
Final: De Minaur over Tsitsipas
Rio Open
Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,100,230
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Cameron Norrie
Draw analysis: Rio de Janeiro is the lone 500-point event on the Golden Swing, but that doesn’t mean it will look much—if any—different from Buenos Aires. And it’s basically the same as Cordoba aside from the presence of Alcaraz, who kicked off his February campaign in Buenos Aires and lost to Nicolas Jarry in the semifinals. The Spaniard should not have any trouble reaching at least the Rio final; his only real competition en route could come in the last eight against either Sebastian Baez or Stan Wawrinka. Baez vs. Wawrinka is a potential second-round showdown, although the 38-year-old Swiss would first have to get past Buenos Aires finalist Facundo Diaz Acosta.
Defending champion Cameron Norrie is seeded second, so a rematch of last year’s title tilt is possible. However, the British left-hander is not in great form and will obviously have to contend with a whole host of more traditional clay-courters. That includes Hugo Dellien in round one and possibly Jaume Munar in the quarterfinals and either Jarry, Arthur Fils, or Federico Coria in the semis.
Quarterfinal predictions: Carlos Alcaraz over Sebastian Baez, Laslo Djere over Juan Pablo Varillas, Arthur Fils over Federico Coria, and Cameron Norrie over Jaume Munar
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Djere and Norrie over Fils
Final: Alcaraz over Norrie
who ya got?