Resumption of the Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal rivalry will get an earliest possible start in 2016, as they are set to square off at their first tournament of the year. The Doha title will be at stake when Djokovic and Nadal meet again on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 47th time in their careers when they clash in the final of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open on Saturday.
The head-to-head series is all tied at 23-23 following Djokovic’s 6-3, 6-3 victory in the semis of the World Tour Finals. Nadal was once borderline dominant in this rivalry, but Djokovic has turned the tide in a major way to draw level. The Serb has won four in a row and eight of their last nine encounters. Nadal has not defeated the world No. 1 on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open title match, a span of five such matches.
While both players were considerable favorites to reach this final when the draw was revealed, neither did so with complete ease. Djokovic delivered consecutive 6-2, 6-2 destructions of Dustin Brown and Fernando Verdasco before things got trickier. The top seed recovered from a break down in three straight sets, beating Leonardo Mayer 6-3, 7-5 and staging a first-set comeback against Tomas Berdych to prevail 6-3, 7-6(3).
Nadal survived a pair of three-setters, outlasting fellow Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-1 and Andrey Kuznetsov 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. The fifth-ranked Spaniard also scored wins at the expense of Robin Haase (6-3, 6-2) and Illya Marchenko (6-3, 6-4).
“To be back in a final is always a great feeling, especially the first week of the season,” Nadal assured. “For sure (it) is important for me for my confidence, (to) confirm that the end of 2015 season had been something realistic and this beginning of 2016 I am still playing well, so [I’ve] already won four matches here and [am] in the final.”
“I guess it’s a pretty important match tomorrow; let’s see what happens,” Djokovic said following his semifinal victory over Berdych. “It’s been a long rivalry. It’s an exciting challenge for both of us.”
Although Nadal has not been a challenge for Djokovic of late, the 14-time major champion was a shadow of his real self throughout 2015. This one should be far more competitive than their four most recent showdowns, but Nadal is not quite ready to turn the rivalry back in his favor–at least not on this surface.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
[polldaddy poll=9263420]
So you think this result will take rafa several steps behind vs others too or will it be restricted to Novak only
Neither.
Elaborate please
I think he will continue to play at the same level or better against everyone else and certainly do no worse against Nole as he hasn’t taken a set from him in 19 months.
I really want to say this now, I blame Toni for not spotting what went wrong with Rafa during early 2015. It seemed to me that Rafa didnt communicate with Toni about his confidence issue, at least not in depth, where Toni would or could learn about the seriousness of the issue. Had Toni paid more attention to Rafa’s problem back then, he wouldnt and shouldnt want Rafa to try out the new racket for the clay season and assuming because its clay season, Rafa would have no problem getting used to the new racket.
As it turned out Rafa had a disastrous clay season losing his FO crown too further dampening his spirit and his confidence. Toni even said that after watching Rafa practiced, he felt Rafa would do well at Wimbledon, further proof of how little he knew of the seriousness of Rafa’s confidence problem! At that time I couldnt believe Toni even said that! After the sound beating at the hands of Brown, Toni finally woke up and realized the seriousness of the issue, and then said something like he’s also at a loss as to how Rafa could overcome the problem (something to that effect).
I’m frustrated with Toni for not being sensitive to Rafa’s problem and left it too late to find solutions when the harm was already done.
Rafa couldnt implement those improvements he had made since the end of 2015 in this match because he was tense and fearful from the get go, not calm and couldnt think clearly hence he’s reverting to his clay court tennis. He hardly hit his BH flatter shots CC or DTL but instead reverting to slicing them. His FH suddenly lacked depth and precision again when it was lethal in his previous few matches. He hardly ventured to the net until he was desparate to hold serve. IOWs, he had forgotten about implementing his new game once he saw Novak across the net. Rafa’s game really looked one dimensional today,always the same old pattern, nothing new. I do feel Rafa can still beat Novak by injecting in some unpredictability into his game – like net rushing at times, S&V at times, hitting DTL returns instead of going CC when Novak was at the net waiting, or even lob him there at the net; serves with more pace the way Murray does his first serves; serve down the T more often instead of going out wide all the time.
Well said lucky but Rafa has to share some of this blame for not recognizing the limitations of his team or, if he did, being unwilling to make changes to his close circle.
well said but lucky and hawks….
sorry not but meant both…!!
luckystar (AT 6:33 PM)
—I blame Toni for not spotting what went wrong with Rafa during early 2015. —
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Toni knew. Rafa has told about that a zillion times in his interviews.
U.Toni said in his recent interview with COP, a radio network in Spain : “Getting injured in the AO 2014 final was a big blow. When he recovered [therapies helped him temporarily], the wrist issue happened [July 2014] and then appendicitis [Oct-Nov. 2014] when he was trying to come back. All this caused him a huge stress and lack of confidence in his body [in the 2015 season]. He was going on court [in 2015] without knowing/trusting what his body would do.”
Toni was aware of the problem but didnt know the extent of the problem, hence his remark about Rafa doing well at Wimbledon.
luckystar (AT 6:33 PM)
—he [Toni] wouldnt and shouldnt want Rafa to try out the new racket for the clay season …—
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I don’t think that Toni asked Rafa to use a prototype of the new racket model. Rafa was supposed to test it before the 2015 season, but it was not ready in time. So, he tested the racket in April.
Unfortunately, he had ‘less control’ (according to his words) with the new model and he went back to his regular racket (AeroPro Drive).
Thats the problem, why test it during the most important part of the season for Rafa? Probably assuming Rafa would be fine because its the clay season! Again not sensitive to Rafa’s main problem at that time.
luckystar (AT 7:34 PM),
Because Rafa wanted to test.
You’re Rafa?
luckystar (AT 8:07 PM),
I have read Rafa’s interviews.
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I should ask: are you Toni ? 🙂
LOL
Rafa may have a mental problem but let’s not get carried away.
Someone (AT 8:38 PM) should help himself.
Please, whether its Rafa’s decision or not that’s not the problem; its Toni who as a coach who needs to advise Rafa for or against it. Rafa isnt that stubborn not to listen to anyone. Of course when asked Rafa would say that’s his decision, or should he said my coach requested me to test the racket so I do?
Luckystar (AT 9:04 PM),
You are Rafa & U.Toni? 🙂
Luckystar (AT 9:04 PM),
.
Rafa talks about playing with a new prototype racket (in April 2015):
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=108399
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Babolat is Rafa’s sponsor and U.Toni isn’t a Babolat employee. 🙂
luckystar (AT 6:33 PM)
—Toni even said that after watching Rafa practiced, he felt Rafa would do well at Wimbledon—
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Toni always says he hopes Rafa is doing well.
Nah, he said he felt Rafa would do well, not only ‘hoping’.
I think that was part of the rhetoric to increase Rafa’s confidence and to help him in a way…I remember us discussing change in Toni’s public appearances thus being more supportive of Rafa and more optimistic…it was inevitable since Rafa was losing to nobodies…it would do him no good if Toni went public and said: I don’t think Rafa will do well in Wimbledon…
natashao ( AT 7:45 PM),
I agree, and Toni said recently: “You can’t win any good tournaments if you think you cannot and you don’t BELIEVE.”
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ESPN, Dec. 29, 2015: ¤¤ Toni Nadal believes we’ll see return of vintage Rafa.
QUESTION: “Will Rafael go back to winning Grand Slams in 2016?”
TONI: “Yes. I couldn’t do this work if I thought that he couldn’t win more Grand Slams. I think that he can win more Grand Slams. He can win the Australian Open in January. And he can win Wimbledon, too. The last few years, Rafael arrived at Wimbledon and he lost early, and very fast. And, in Roland Garros, for sure, Rafael can win. In tennis, you need confidence to do things. It’s impossible to do anything without confidence. You can’t win any good tournaments if you think you cannot and you don’t BELIEVE.” ¤¤
http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/14416489/tennis-toni-nadal-believes-see-return-vintage-rafa-nadal
This interview was done at end of Dec last year when Rafa had already shown signs of improvements.
He doesnt need to say anything. The worst thing was that he said he was also at a loss after Rafa suffered a beatdown by Brown.
luckystar (AT 8:10 PM),
—He doesnt need to say anything—
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How do YOU know what words Rafa needs to hear from Toni?!
Toni has already destroyed the confidence of a young man and now he’s trying to repair the damage but looking at it he hasnt had much success yet.
luckystar (AT 7:36 PM),
—Nah, he said he felt Rafa would do well, not only ‘hoping’—
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Yep, ‘hoping’ is my interpretation. I don’t know what other people ‘feel’.
To amy.
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During the trophy ceremony, Rafa said he found a new coach as he looked for the fan who yelled out at him during the second set.
“I found a new coach today, too. I think he is travelling with me to Australia tonight. I’m sure next time I’m gonna win against Novak with him.”
From the 2:03 minute mark in the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6AoFqX0pbQ
[Source: RNF]
He was joking!
This Rafa is worse than 2015 Rafa. I wonder how long a great former champion can take these beat-downs.
He is at a loss once he sees Novak across the net. Novak is in his head again. Novak has progressed but Rafa has regressed. Rafa doesnt have the belief now that he could beat Novak, saying Novak is of a different league.
Perhaps Rafa already knows, unlike us his fans, that he’s not going to beat Novak on the HCs. He may be hoping and working to beat Novak on clay.
I think if Rafa can’t win the French Open this year he will retire afterwards at the age of 30.
May or may not, depends on how he feels about his game. He may not lose to Novak on clay but someone else. Also I dont think Novak has become invincible on clay when he has to go five sets with Murray. Novak may lose early too at the FO.
Novak happens to be a bad match up for Rafa now as he’s able to predict the pattern of Rafa’s play. In the past its not so, as Rafa was stronger and quicker and could out think Novak. In their FO matches from 2012 to 2014, Rafa could outplay Novak by coming up with different strategy each time they met there.
Rafa has lost some speed and power and couldnt execute any new strategy at the moment and thus has become predictable.
Fed’s been doing it his whole career.
Rafa is still all smiles in defeat and can joke about a new coach. He’s gracious in defeat, a very nice individual. I hope that means he’s not that affected by this hammering and will continue to work to overcome the fear of Novak and his game.
That’s a big part of why in my books Rafa will always be the best despite career slam count.
Sadly Rafa is a shell of his former self perhaps finally burnt out somewhat like Sampras became before he turned 30 (albeit for different reasons obviously). I think Rafa lacks the ruthlessness to make changes necessary to return to the top of his game which, paradoxically, is part of his unique charm and what makes him so great in my mind.
Vamos Rafa no matter what.
I agree that Rafa is not ruthless enough, unlike Novak or Fed. I noticed that Rafa rarely bagel anyone even though I could see that he clearly was able to do so. He normally would lose a game or two once he sensed he already had the match in his pocket. Fed and Novak would not hesitate if they have the chance to bagel anyone, stamping their authority and also dampening their opponents’ spirits so that to prevent them becoming a resurging force.
Oh, Fed also managed to beat Rafa giving Rafa only three games, at WTF2011 beating Rafa 6-3, 6-0.
Rafa OTOH, had beaten Novak at MC2012 giving him only 4 games and trashed Fed at the FO2008 giving Fed only 4 games.
So it happens…First of all, congrats to Novak and his fans for his flawless performance! He really destroyed Rafa today.
I watched Novak’s animal face expression. He was so determined not only to win but to hand a beat down because he sensed Rafa was coming back. This match had much higher value for Novak to humiliate Rafa, to break his spirit and to shake his rediscovered confidence. This match was all about it.
Rafa was not ready for this. Even if the team Rafa developed some new approach it wouldn’t work.
The main problem is in Rafa’s speed. He was too slow for this Novak. I always talk about Rafa’s decline in speed therefore changes to the old style of play are mandatory.
However, at the end of the day Rafa played another final, he is not injured and he is work in progress. He can and will go up! Novak can’t do better than this, he can only go down…if he sustains this level the whole year he will fir sure break records…but again, to do so he will have to be more than human. We’ll see…
Rafa should not let this loss get to him. Judging by the logic of some here Fed should have never played another RG match after Rafa destroyed him in 2008…Fed even managed to win it a year later…
Nobody here knows what the future brings. I may be accessed of being overly optimistic but I am into sports myself and believe me things can change overnight…
Vamos Rafa!
His speed is hurt, not by age, but by lack of confidence IMO.
#HeavyLegSyndrome
It may be both…however, he should not try to outhit Novak because the Serb is quick and can rally for ages…I wonder if this style of play, similar to what Rafa used to do, will be the reason for Novak’s fall…he simply cannot go for long standing at the baseline and running like hell…his current physical condition is just unbelievable…I wonder for how much longer…
Novak has done well to conserve his energy. How many times have people said that he doesn’t look that great in the earlier rounds of tournaments? But that’s because he seems to be able to do enough to get the win, even if the score doesn’t look as nice. Then he is able to bring his best in the semis and finals. So Novak seems to be pacing himself so that he will not burnout.
I think Rafa’s loss of speed is a combination of age and lack of confidence. The simple immutable truth is that players do lose some things as they age. It happens to all of them. Then they have to try to adapt if possible.
Novak was standing on the baseline dictating the rallies. He would hit an angled forehand, then go to the other side with an angled backhand, corner to corner. He was running Rafa all over the place. Novak is not going to get tired playing those kinds of matches.
Novak was running like crazy and hitting from all over the place…he was just too good and too fast for this Rafa…
Not nearly as much as Rafa!
The problem is that Novak always seems to play his best against Rafa these days. That’s because he knows exactly how to play him and has incredible confidence now.
If you are hoping for Novak’s level to drop against Rafa, then I fear you are going to be disappointed. It’s Rafa who will have to find the solutions and answers now.
I don’t see anyone here implying that Fed should never have played another RG after the beatdown from Rafa in 2008. But Fed has made changes to continue to be competitive as he ages. He is now using a racket with a bigger head, he has made some coaching changes, he came up with an even more aggressive style of play, the SABR, rushing the net at every opportunity.
Rafa has to do the same. He has a new racket. Now he has to work on his serve, change up his shot making patterns and see if he can shake things up against Novak.
If you or anybody else are wondering how Rafa can or will he overcome this loss I gave an example of Fed…that was my point! Fed hardly made any of those changes for RG 2009…they came letter…
Yes, but Rafa was not there in the final in 2009 to stop Fed! There is no way Fed would have won unless Rafa was somehow taken out of the equation. Fed’s never been able to beat Rafa at RG.
So I don’t agree with your example. Unless you are saying that if Novak somehow loses at a tournament, then Rafa would have a chance to win.
Exactly, my point was that you never now what could happen…you did not get it…
Well, I obviously did get it! Since that is what you were saying, then we can agree. 🙂
Yes Rafa has to do that. There’s no shortcut way, just has to work on every aspect of his game, esp serve and return, BH CC and DTL, playing more inside the court etc.and then work out a gameplan. Most importantly, add in some elements of surprise.
Frankly I’m rather disappointed with the way Rafa played this match, he had reverted back to clay court style tennis and had not tested Novak using some of his improvements.
That is true…it seemed as Rafa went two steps back…
But the thing is that Rafa was serving well, returning well and hitting his DTL backhand with depth and penetration in his previous matches. He was being aggressive, staying on the baseline and hitting his shots early. He did all of those things this week, yet when he sees Novak on the other side of the court, it all goes away!
That’s because quality of shots coming back to Rafa are different.
this
yep..
Chicken and egg situation.
He wouldn’t have that quality of shots against 2016 federer or 2013 Rafa.
I’m not saying he’d win but it would be a more competitive match.
When Nole rolled in second serves, Rafa barely returned them much beyond the service line and that has nothing to do with the quality of Nole’s shots.
Not so much of that, Rafa wasnt even attempting his BHDTL shots that he hit all week, reverting to slicing his BH instead. So, its not the quality of shots coming back at him, its the lack of confidence in executing those shots.
He was playing from a more defensive position too and reverted to old ways of playing. He made the mistake of staying back and rallying with Novak instead of hitting more aggressive shots and then moving forward. Once he moved forward during the match he won the point.
He played too predictably sticking to old ways which Novak was all too familiar with. He has to come to terms with the fact that no one can out rally Novak, perhaps only Stan on a good day. If he wants to beat Novak he must think of adding new elements into his game making it unpredictable at least to Novak.
Nativenewyorker (AT 7:45 PM),
—He has a new racket.—
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Rafa uses new strings. (There is no confirmation that he has changed the frame).
I realize that the quality of the shots that were coming back were different! Obviously! But the point that I was trying to make, is that Rafa has been able to handle that quality of shots from Novak. How else would Rafa have been able to get the better of Novak from mid 2012 to 2014? It’s not like he’s never seen this kind of tennis from Novak. He’s been able to be competitive. But now it’s different. That is my point.
Aa far as Rafa overcoming this loss, he’s a professional tennis player. He will move on. One loss is not going to destroy him. But I do think it’s going to sting. Rafa does have his pride. As he should.
I am not writing Rafa’s epitaph here. I am merely discussing what can be done or how he can find a way to beat Novak. Otherwise, it’s going to be hard to win more slams.
One final is not the be-all and end-all. But it’s human nature to feel disappointed. I don’t know about you, but for myself I do not enjoy seeing Novak blow Rafa off the court and relish the experience of doing so. Not one bit.
Well dear, losses are part of the sport. It took me a while to breathe in this loss but I have sport spirit and I always look further than this…people fall and get up…if Rafa let the loss at the 250 tourney disappoints him so much that he gets discouraged for the AO then he wouldn’t be a true sportsman…Rafa is way better than that! He has the whole year ahead! He will have more to say I am sure!
If I couldn’t take losses, then I would have stopped watching tennis a long time ago! I have been there with Rafa through it all, the good and the bad. And I am sticking! Not going anywhere! I am in this to the end. No matter what.
As I said previously, Rafa will move on because one loss does not define his career nor will it break him. I agree that there is a lot more tennis to be played and we will have to watch and see how it all plays out.
I will be there for Rafa always, but I would much prefer to see him get a win against Novak and maybe wipe that smirk off his face!
Don’t understand why so much criticism towards Rafa… Novak was close to 100% form today, not much anybody can do when he’s hitting the ball like that.
I thought Rafa was pretty decent today… played well enough to compete with any of the other top 5.
Doha should be a positive experience for Nadal.
Well, it should have been…. But it wasn’t!
You don’t think that Rafa can beat Novak when he’s close to 100%? Because he’s done it in the past, when Novak was at 100%!
There’s always a chance…
Just think there’s nothing to be shamed of when your opponent is hitting lines and corners all over the place.
exactly…I expected Rafa to be able to implement some of his improvements/new stuff but this Novak would not let him…he was just unbelievable today…the way he was running and hitting angles from all over the place is just amazing feature…
Can he keep this high level for the second consecutive year without getting injured or exhausted…well, we shall see…Novak will have to defend the points and he has reached all the finals…it’s a lot to work on…
He might be able to keep this level for another year – I think that’s the goal; and further, however long he can. He talks about living the life at this level – in time we’ll see where it takes him. He does have the advantage of following Fedal’s leads, learning from them, planning and managing to subdue them on their best turf and continue improving on improvements. Nole isn’t a machine but his discipline is unwavering and has become a way of life. We’ll see how long he goes. He’s also human and not perfect. But I doubt he succumbs to a gluten binge pre AO 😀
“gluten binge”…love it 🙂
yeah, I agree, his discipline is really something…he is enjoying his run but there is always a threat of overdoing it…then again, he may as well be able to make another great year thus making history…we sure will be around to follow the scores… 🙂
My guess is Novak can. You see, his one major obstacle (Rafa) has now been removed by him ruthlessly.
Novak had the fortune that his main rival was struck with injuries and while the rival was away, he wrestled the no.1 ranking back, played with no worry as his major rival was down and out. When his rival was still finding his way back, Novak quickly and ruthlessly swept up everything in sight. He is NOT going to make the same mistake as in 2013, when Rafa stormed back from injury to sweep up almost everything except Wimbledon, right up to the USO and including the no.1 ranking.
I dont think anyone is going to stop Novak, at least not snatching the no.1 ranking from him, or preventing him from winning the slams, at least not some of the slams. Unless the young guns rise to challenge him, I doubt the current top 10 could do the job of stopping Novak.
Rafa is important to the tour for providing serious challenges to Novak and sustains interest in the sports when Fed is too old to provide the real challenge. Novak and his team know that Rafa is still the main threat to Novak and so he’s out to destroy Rafa ruthlessly to prevent his (Rafa’s) resurgence.
ratcliff,
It would appear that some are waiting for Novak to fall apart. I don’t see that happening right now. Novak seems to have found a way to pace himself in tournaments. That’s what I have noticed about him in the last year. He does just enough to get the wins and then saves his best for the latter stages of tournaments.
Now of course there are times when he will have some tough early round matches. But when he can, I see him conserving his energy. He did not look anywhere near as good during this tournament as he did in the final.
Oh, and about Novak painting the lines, well there was a player named Rafa Nadal who was able to do exactly the same thing as I recall! 🙂
He’s got an 8000 point lead. He can drop 4000 easy and still win multiple slams and finish no. 1.
He certainly doesn’t have to defend all of his points.
This is no different than how good Federer looked in the weak era with no challengers.
Age does not account for the massive drop in form. It was injuries, uncontrolled habits, anxiety and loss in confidence.
It can be fixed but not with his team as is and he’s not willing to make the necessary changes.
he doesn’t but he wants to…that is my point…do you think Novak will give up Master 1000 to have some rest? It simply does not go with his current logic…he wants it all…
and you see how it goes: Novak decides not to play Monte Carlo / Rafa goes on and wins it easily and builds his confidence for the rest of the clay season…or Novak decides to rest during the IW and Rafa beats Fed in the finals…see…it’s not as simple as you may think… 🙂
That’s the point with Novak! When you have an 8000 point lead, you have the luxury of maybe losing some points here and there. He’s got a huge cushion right now.
Regarding Rafa’s drop in form, we’ve all discussed this at length and given our various thoughts. I do believe that age is a part of it. Maybe not even a major part, but still a component. I think the injuries were what did Rafa in and caused him not to trust his body and lose confidence. That would be only natural. Rafa is human after all. The other issues are all part of it.
I haven’t watched Rafa play in this tournament.
Lucky and hawky, judging by the last five or so tournaments, how would you describe Rafa’s dealing with his anxiety? I don’t mean confidence per se, but the anxiety. (Putting today’s final aside more or less, other than today it wasn’t anxiety or extreme lack of confidence that was a factor.) Does rafa seem to be on the mend anxiety-wise more than we might have hoped for five months ago?
This question relates to what was said about Toni of course… but is also about Rafa besides that.
AT 9:03 PM
—how would you describe Rafa’s dealing with his anxiety?—
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OMG! Yet another Dr.Armchair arrived on the scene! LOL
The anxiety has definitely lessened compared to 2015 according to Rafa and I believe that it shows.
But his confidence is absolutely shot against Djokovic.
For the majority of the match he was just too defensive hoping that Nole would make errors.
No aggression.
I don’t see him winning slams or beating Nole anywhere without a change in his team and I don’t see any evidence that he is willing to do so.
I hope I’m wrong.
“But his confidence is absolutely shot against Djokovic.”
Fill in ‘Nadal’ where you have ‘Djokovic’ and you describe Federer. However, with Federer the damage to his confidence facing Rafa by now is fixed – apart from maybe Cincinnati, Basel, or ATP Final indoors. Rafa recovered from the 2011 blows he took from Nole. And Nole couldn’t sustain his dominance. 2016 this time Nole’s more experienced and settled – I give him a better chance of sustaining dominance than after 2011. Rafa has to figure it out on his end. There’s still time for Rafa. There’s time for others too, not Federer, but there’s Andy Murray and uhmm…let me think about it. Stan comes to mind.
Yes there’s time for Rafa but he’s not using his time wisely and that will in all likelihood be his downfall.
Regarding Novak giving up Masters 1000 tournaments, there are mandatory tournaments that everyone must play. So it’s not like Novak can just drop out of some tournaments because he feels like it. Fed has done a good job of managing his schedule as he has gotten older. Of course, he gets perks for what he’s done and has the luxury of skipping some extra ones along the way.
It’s kind of surprising to read that the idea is for Novak to skip some tournaments, thus giving Rafa a chance to win. That’s not going to get it done. It may happen here and there and if it does, all well and good. But you have to beat the best in this game. You can’t run and you can’t hide. At some point, Rafa will have to face Novak.
Obviously Novak would not literally “give up” tournaments??? It was rhetorical and meant that Novak must not win everything…there are ways to do it like citing exhaustion, losing early, etc. Of course he won’t just skip the tourney and risk being penalized for God’s sake!
And nobody said that’s the idea for Rafa’s success??? I said that Novak would not want Rafa to build his confidence winning tournaments…please don’t misinterpret what I said…how did you come up with such ideas??? Please read more carefully before you interfere…
Since when am I “interfering”? Is this an exclusive conversation you are having. That’s really quite insulting, I must say. You really took what I said in completely the wrong way but there’s no point in explain it because you have gotten emotional about it. Not necessary.
I thought on a forum all discussions are open.
It was a response to a Hawkeye post and I wrote it in a humorous way
email is your friend if you have a personal problem with someone. Thanks.
calm down
I’m never involved with this anxiety argument.
My take about Rafa is that he’ll continue to work on the things that he wishes to implement, trying to win as many matches as possible with the implementation of the changes, so that by the time he has to faceoff with Novak again, he will be able to play his new game with confidence.
As I mentioned before, as long as Rafa is not so predictable, he can still beat Novak. He has to play smart and not trying to outslug Novak. Rafa needs to add in varieties to his game; Novak doesnt feel comfortable dealing with varieties players the likes of Fed, Dolgo, Tomic. Rafa has the varieties but he’s using them sparingly not wanting to take more risk.
There’s no argument about his anxiety (unless you disagree with Rafa whose talked exhaustively about it).
There’s no depth on his shots against Nole, 2nd serve ROS being a prime example.
I prefer to go along with lucky’s stance and just not get involved with the anxiety argument. I have made my feelings known about this in the past and see no reason to revisit it.
I do not think it’s the end of the world with Rafa trying to beat Novak. But it’s going to be a tough battle for Rafa.
I also do not see people here criticizing Rafa. I am reading thoughtful analysis of his game and the issues related to competing against Novak. I have enjoyed reading everyone’s thoughts, whether I agree or disagree.
When I say the damage to Federer’s confidence is “fixed” — I mean fixed and done – gone, zero confidence. It’s in the books to examine: look what losing multiple times on the biggest stage to the same player, when the stakes are highest, can do to the human psyche.
Federer’s confidence was damaged in 2013. It certainly isn’t now.
Fed’s still damaged facing Rafa, Ricky. His confidence problem is centered on Rafa and Fed’s just not good enough to beat Nole now. Fed is, or was in 2015, good enough to be #2 most of the year – so no, the confidence issue in general is fine.
nah Fed is fine. Has a way better chance than anyone else to beat Djokovic. Which isn’t saying a lot!
Dimitrov should have won, darn it. Did you see the perspiration? Fed never used to sweat like that. He was miserable. Raonic has a decent chance. I give Fed less chance than last year to beat Nole.
you are probably right…
maybe, nats. But there’s always a chance I may not be in possession of all the information 😉
Raonic has a 10% chance of beating Fed.
If Fed was damaged facing Rafa, he wouldn’t have won Basel.
Mitigating circumstance in Basel, Hawkstra – Rafa not yet up to par in fall 2015. Rafa would have beaten Fed, otherwise – that’s my opinion/speculation. hehehe
Federer is so psyched out by Rafa. If not consciously experienced, sub-consciously. Sure, if Rafa is injured or 2015-ish low on confidence, Fed may sneak a win through – but not in a GS. Otherwise it’s indoors WTF or (maybe) Cincinnati.
I think Fed can beat Novak in a best of three set match, not in best of five anymore.
@ lucky 10:20 pm,
I understand your point…but I have hopes that it’s not over just yet…I tend to think that this win should not mean Rafa is sidelined for good, i.e., that Rafa will not be able to beat Novak this year…I believe Rafa will beat Novak and it will come soon…
I read your evaluations of Rafa’s game and I see where you are coming from…I very much appreciate your opinion as you are more realistic than me…but you also agree that Rafa has made improvements and that he just failed to implement those today…I think this encounter came way to early for Rafa to fully implement his changes or tactics or game plan…I think he will do much better should he meet Novak in the AO…whether he will be able to beat him…well, that’s another issue, but he will certainly be able to do more than this…
Rafa is work in progress…Novak’s game is tailor made for Rafa…he is a bad match up for Rafa and on top of it he was really brilliant today…he gave his all and Rafa barely did anything… but Novak’s attitude shows that he certainly fears of Rafa being back especially in terms of his confidence…he will do anything to humiliate Rafa…this was a perfect time to do so being early in the year and with Rafa having fought all sorts of adversities which can not disappear just like that…
I simply do not think this match is an indication for the future…it does prove that Rafa is not ready yet to compete with Nole but it does not tell us more than that…I get the feeling that Rafa will have his mojo back right in time for the clay season…everything else he wins in the meantime is big plus…and I certainly hope he will win some…
I’m not saying Rafa is hopeless against Novak, certainly not!. He’s still a WIP so we have to wait for the end product.
As I said, once there’s varieties and less predictability, Novak wont be able to read Rafa’s game like a book. Novak will then be the one busy finding solutions.
Rafa’s own comment about the match and playing against Novak, is quite interesting, mentioning that Novak’s game was perfect and under the NIGHT conditions made it even more difficult for Rafa. I suppose the ball was quicker at night when there’s no wind. I think Rafa still couldnt deal with quicker conditions esp when his oppontent was taking the ball early and rushed him.
I do feel with a more reliable serve, Rafa could at least earn some cheap points or sets up the point for him to move forwsrd and takes control. Rafa’s serve down the T went MIA, when in the past he could always serve sn ace down the T to get out of trouble.
In fact that Kuznetsov match let us forseen what was to come when Rafa met Novak. Kuz took the ball early moving forward and rushing Rafa into errors or simply hit a winner. Novak did the same but better. In that Kuz match Rafa could fight back and edged a win but Novak was of a different league.
It will be difficult for Rafa on the quicker surfaces vs his top rivals, all the more he needs his serve and needs to be aggressive from the start; if not his opponent would soon gain the upperhand by being more aggressive than him.
– I don’t think Novak’s game is tailor made for Rafa. Aside from the difference in topspin use, their styles are somewhat identical. As a result, it’s really just a battle of fundamentals, which Novak has improved year after year, while Rafa has regressed…
–
When you compare the 2 currently, there aren’t many areas where Nadal is better.
Groundstrokes: Novak’s hitting groundstrokes with more pop, depth, consistency
Quality of serves are pretty identical, expect Novak’s hitting at a higher percentage
Return of serve / physicality: I think we can all agree Novak’s the best out of anymore in these areas.
Mental strength: Djokovic’s been playing in hostile away crowds for the majority of his career.
Net play: One of the areas Novak has drastically improved and implemented more into his game.
Overhead smashes: Rafa gets the nod on this one.
Changing minor tactics like you guys referred might help, however it doesn’t do much when the opponent’s level is notches above. Another option is for Rafa to change his entire style of play. But then again, that’s not what got him 14 GS. This opinion probably isn’t welcomed here, but I don’t mind Rafa continuing what he’s doing, and keep working on the fundamentals, try to catch up to Novak… He is progressing nicely… On a great day, he has a solid chance at beating Novak.
It’s very unlikely this is an indication of for rest of the year. The Novak we saw today will probably shows up 10% (BS number, but you get the point) of the time.
why not? This Novak was on display 40 percent of the time in 2015 and he’s only getting better.
This Novak was in absolute tip-top form for the entire match. I believe it’s very rare for any athlete to perform at 100%.
Very rare indeed, just like Rafa at the FO2008 final; MC2010 final; or Fed’s Cincy 2012 final for eg.
I doubt Novak plays this way 40% of the times in 2015, perhaps in 2011. Its Rafa on the other side of the net that’s why Novak had to raise his level; moreover Rafa wasnt playing any differently from his usual game which Novak had known so well after playing against him so many times!
I also doubt that Novak can get any better.
Nole is very settled into the #1 role. He thrives on it – seems to be a happy place for him – barely imaginable for someone like me. I had never felt Rafa was as comfortable with #1 – please correct me if I’m wrong ( just an observation; I’m not a Rafa expert like most of you here).
There are many ways to “get better” and Nole’s on a mission to find every one of them. It’s astonishing how well he played today (finally had time to find parts of the match)
This!
Sorry, My last post @ 5:21 am was in response to Ricky’s post@ 3:09 am.
I agree with Ricky.
I know it was wrong outcome for you, NNY, but I’ve watched most of the match I think Rafa would have beat anyone other than Nole. Stats are great and helpful but don’t tell the whole story. Just posted a clip on the Nole page. Jedi Lords – both of them.
I could not watch the final as I was in a flight. Just reached my home here in London and saw this result. DAMN, Beyond shocking! He took 6 games off Novak on an indoor court and only managed to take 3 games here! Will have to watch this one…such a shame. Really disappointed.
and i just read that rafa said ‘“I played against a player who did everything perfect. I know nobody playing tennis like this ever. Since I know this sport, I never saw somebody playing at this level.
“When I say perfect, it’s not one thing in particular. It’s everything. If not, it’s not perfect.”
I talked about something similar in the off season. I was concerned that may be rafa is hoping novak’s level would drop and that is the only way he can take him down given he himself improves as well. He has tooo much respect for Novak now! Rating his level even above federer’s!
Funniest thing is that there are people on this site who think novak win by virtue of his opponents’ errors and does nothing special…yeah right…he is going to eat up every record out there unless the dynamics change.
“Funniest thing is that there are people on this site who think novak win by virtue of his opponents’ errors and does nothing special…yeah right…he is going to eat up every record out there unless the dynamics change.”
Thanks, vamosrafa – Nole’s incredibly special, imo, and I don’t mind him eating the records. As far as the dynamics changing, I couldn’t help thinking while watching Thiem and Dimitrov lose to Federer that it could change the tennis landscape if either of those two could have beat Federer, then gone on to win Brisbane, and taken away a boost of confidence going into AO. Dimitrov especially frustrates me!
Of course Novak was doing something special, reading Rafa’s game like a book, anticipated his every move (after hitting the ball he immediately rushed to the other corner of the court and true enough Rafa was hitting to that corner!) took the ball early, hitting the lines with precision, served snd returned well..
There’s not much Rafa could do except to serve better and forced his way forward which Rafa couldnt.
Rafa’s comment was eerily similar to Berdych’s when he was hamnered by Novak at the Beijing final in 2014, managed only two games (6-0,6-2). Novak fond of humiliating his opponent in a final!
Nole’s level simply IS better than Federer’s ever was.
His record points level even supports this in an era that while weakened is still not as weak as 2002-07.
vamosrafa,
I have been wondering where you were! You have been missed as we have been live blogging Rafa’s matches this week.
I am sorry but I do not think that Novak reinvented the wheel here or came out doing something unbelievable. He simply anticipated everything Rafa did and had an answer for it.
I appreciate you stsnding up for what Novak has done and not going along with this business of trying to diminish it. I am not buying any of that. When you see Novak beat Rafa again and in this manner, then you know that he’s got the game to continue to dominate.
Rafa did not have the answers at all. If people are waiting for Novak to falter, then I fear they are going to be disappointed.
I agree with lucky that Rafa needs to do something about his serve. Against Novak, there is so much pressure because of his great ROS. I don’t know if you read any of the comments, but Rafa won only 48% of first serve points! Tell me when we have seen a stat like that!
Novak did everything perfect just like Rafa said!
And Novak will drop in level eventually like Rafa did at some point, the only question being when…he may have another great year or not, there is no certainty…nothing lasts forever…
Perhaps Novak’s level will drop in 2017. Fed was consistently good from 2003 to 2012 (ie 10 years); Rafa was consistently good from 2005 to 2014, ie also 10 years.
Novak started his good years from 2008 as no.3 player, so by 2017 it will be 10 years of consistent good play from Novak. Perhaps he follows Fedal’s pattern.
ratcliff,
Thanks for your kind words. You are a great fan of Novak! So fair and reasonable!
I guess that I was really hoping for a more competitive match, but I don’t know. In the end, maybe there just wasn’t much Rafa could do. You are correct that stats don’t tell the whole story, just part of it.
Oh and I did see that clip you posted on the Novak forum. It’s nice to see that there is a Novak fan posting something about him!
You made me feel better. 🙂
🙂 Nny.
just wanted to echo nny’s words about how great it is to have ratcliff here. and i don’t say that just because i am one of the very few people here who likes both rafa and nole but because she adds so much by being so fair and appreciative of tennis played by many different players.
Not used to such praise, amy. In the real world I have to make a conscious effort to keep my mouth shut about tennis otherwise, I can empty a room very fast. Thanks!
Meant every word that I’ve posted about Rafa.
would just be amazing to see some more great rafole matches ratcliff…
i miss that rivalry like crazy..without it, and with delpo (one of my other faves) out, the tour has been very flat this last year…fed is still a force of nature but obviously ageing means he’s not the player he was…the tour really needs rafa playing well again and challenging nole..
amy,
Found a stream to watch the 2nd set of Stan v Borna. I think there is reason to believe the competition in the ATP is coming alive. Nole may well have his hands full in 2016. Going to post more about Stan v Coric on proper thread. 😉
amy,
I didn’t know that Delpo was also one of your faves. I can’t say that he was an actual favorite of mine, however I absolutely respected his talent and what he brought to the sport. My heart goes out to him for all that he has been through and the time he has lost in his career. Such a loss for him and for tennis fans.
All I can do is second what you said about this sport really needing Rafa. I also miss the Rafaole rivalry. Some memorable matches.
Novak’s level is higher than Fed’s on these courts but not on the quicker courts of Dubai, Cincy and Shanghai.
Fed during his heydays was able to hammer Rafa on the indoor courts at TMC Shanghai 2007 for example; did the same to Rafa at WTF2011 too.
Rafa/Novak BO3 matches are getting very lopsided in favor of Novak. Novak just knows how to win thess matcbes by coming out all guns blazing and not allowing Rafa into the match. Rafa has to play catch ups majority of the times.
I’m sorry for Rafa that he has to start his matches slow and feels his way around before upping his level by which time may be too late. When he was much younger he would not hesitate to come out all guns blazing, probably he’s the underdog and had nothing to lose. His matches in 2004 vs Fed’s gen guys were all competitive with him not holding back and attacking whenever possible. He had since adopted the clay court baseline game as his default game across all surfaces and so he’s now having problems switching back to a more offensive based game.
I doubt he would turn into an all attacking player (he never was one, just a bit more offensive minded than hes now when he was younger) so he has to at least add in some more offensive elements to his game now. He’s not going to win the baseline rallying wars these days so he has to make use of his good to great volleying and skills at the net. In other words shorten points whenever possible.
He’s adding in the BHDTL shots which he rarely hit in the past, if he improves his serves too then he’ll up his chances against Novak. Novak can spread the court so well using both the length and width of the court. Players have to hit hard and flat penetrating shots to force him back to have a chance to impose their game on him; if not, then rush the net and take time away from him the way Fed does.
Insightful and helpful post, luckystar. Agree about Rafa sussing his opponents out and working his way into the match – adopted that tactic since last fall, lucky?
Starting slow and sussing out the opponent is a pattern I noticed Kei Nishikori was doing in the past. I might be crazy but his deciding set winning percent was holding up the idea – not sure if it is now, and not sure if it was ever intentional. Doesn’t matter how Kei starts at this point, appears he’s physically healthy but still struggling to keep a top ten level.
well he did play aggressively on hard courts in 2013 lucky..standing on the baseline and serving well..moving forward as often as he could…
playing well behind the baseline and reverting to the clay court default mode is somethign he always does when he gets tense and he’s been doing it for the whole of the last year while plagued by nerves…once something has set in as a habit again it’s very hard to break the pattern of it…he can drag himself out of it against other players but against nole he just gets brain-freeze..
i still think he needs more help…
To amy (AT 12:02 PM:
Help is coming. See my post on JANUARY 9, 2016 AT 6:42 PM
Can you repost what help please
Difficult to skim posts on mobile
sanju (AT 4:03 PM),
.
https://tenngrand.com/2016/01/08/doha-final-preview-pick-djokovic-vs-nadal/comment-page-5/#comment-74473
.
🙂
Oh God that was a joke please towards a fan who was screaming in the match.
I for a moment got excited as to what help.
amy,
I agree with you about Rafa playing aggressive in 2013. It was a huge part of his success that year.
I also thought that Rafa’s serve was really strong in 2013. He was much more offensive minded and look how it paid off. He won the North American summer slam – Montreal/Toronto, Cincy and the USO. It doesn’t get any better than that. Something that neither Fed or Novak have done.
I hope people will now appreciate more Rafa’s tennis in 2016 and his improvements. He beats Milos in 2 and Milos has just beaten Fed in 2.
Way to go, Milos!
^ it doesn’t really work that way.
Fed beat Nole in 2 just a month back and Nole beat Rafa in 2.
Different days, different matches.
Yes it doesn’t but point natashao is trying to make is Nadal maybe able to deal with anyone not named Djokovic.
Against Djokovic he is in a hopeless situation and till he gets back to no 4 may keep drawing him in qtrs which won’t help him.
Exactly…thanks sanju ?
Frankly speaking Sanju, I don’t really think it’s just Nole for Rafa at the moment.
Everyone now believes that they can stand up to Rafa and go on toe to toe with them. And Rafa doesn’t help himself by giving his opponents too many chances to strike first blood in a rally. As I had mentioned here sometime back too, the baseline game of the tour has improved and developed a lot now then it was say 4-5 yrs ago. Players are now not afraid to play 20-30 shots rally just hugging the baseline. Until and unless Rafa devotes himself to complete aggression on the court (like djokovic) , it will be tough for him to win the titles.
I was saying the same thing regarding Rafa vs “every other nobody & somebody” in tennis…they all have belief to beat Rafa especially that Rafa spoke publically about his confidence issues and was losing matches that he most certainly should have won…
However, Rafa has already proved that he is stronger than in 2015…if you take into account that he thrashed Murray and Stan at the WTF (indoor hardcourt his least favorite) and then went on to beat Ferry and Milos in Abu Dhabi, and we basically know his chances against Fed, I respectfully disagree that every other player has a shot at Rafa…Rafa may be forced to work harder than usual but he is most certain to get the victory in the end and that is all that counts…
It will take a while for Rafa to get his old mojo back but he is getting there (Novak being the toughest challenge)…I strongly believe by the start of the clay season Rafa (if injury free) will be the one to beat…
Wow! Fed lost to Milos in 2 sets? I haven’t checked any results yet today! Now that’s something!
Well done to Milos!
N atashao I just hope rafa keeps playing his newer changes with full commitment and yesterday’s loss does not regress him or damage his confidence.
Also I sincerely hope rafa is on other side of draw of Novak in AO. And yes he needs to avoid Nick kyrgios too in early rounds
I hope so, too! I fully agree with you. I hope Rafa is able to appreciate his own success in 2016 and does not get affected by this loss too much…
And we are on the same page concerning Rafa’s possible opponents in the AO. I sure hope Nick is nowhere near Rafa…for Nole, I wish a generous draw for my Hero to avoid Novak…I have a feeling Rafa can beat anyone but Novak in the latter stage of the AO…well, if they meet in the finals then let the best man win…
Just saw the highlights. God Djokovic was in full flight and literally seeing the ball like a football.
Rafa barely hit ant BH DTL..why?
He used FH DTL just 3-4 times and those times he had Djokovic on the ropes. Why did he not use it more?
Shh. (Don’t ask why.)
#RafaPolitburoAreEverywhere
https://tenngrand.com/2016/01/08/doha-final-preview-pick-djokovic-vs-nadal/comment-page-4/#comment-74460
If it smells like a rose…
Cahill gone
Moya gone
Nadal meanwhile refused to get external help or a voice in his team.
Rafa you are older now and need variations . Your game of old does not suffice as your rivals have studied you completely and you have lost speed.
sanju (AT 4:57 PM),
Carlos Moya is Rafa’s practice partner! Rafa has practiced with him since Rafa was 12 years old.
Pau Ferragut (on Jan.2, 2016): “On Monday, Nadal & Moyà practiced together in Manacor [Rafa’s hometown].”
https://twitter.com/PauFerragut/status/683276791511969792
He is raonics coach now
Not available for rafa anymore
Rafa and Carlos Moya are close friends.
“Carlos [Moya] is an amazing champion and a great ambassador of our sport,” said Nadal. “He has a lot of knowledge about this sport, so for sure he will help Milos in some aspects. Carlos is a close friend of mine, so I wish him and Milos all the best.” [Rafa’s post-match press conference in Abu Dhabi on January 2, 2016]
Rafa and Carlos Moya (who are close friends) have also spent free time together:
http://www.lecturas.com/medio/2015/06/08/rafa_nadal_y_carlos_moya_960x540.jpg
I was thinking of Paul Annacone…he showed significant interest in Rafa’s game and commented Rafa’s issues during 2015 in fair and rather objective way…I think he and Toni together could do wonders to Rafa’s game…too bad Rafa is not even considering the option..
LOL before Milos hired Mpya.
Practise partner no moya.
Rafa is improving already, its just that he’s still not there yet. He was still playing his ‘old’ game vs Novak maybe because he hadn’t the confidence to play his new ‘implementations’ against Novak yet. He hardly used his BHDTL(something he’s working on) for eg vs Novak.
After reading about what Rafa thought of Novak’s level in the match and after I started recalling how some other players played some matches, I do agree with Rafa on his take about Novak. Sometimes when your opponent played like that, there’s nothing much you could do even though you keep trying.
Novak was simply in the zone the whole match, not missing anything! I can think of a few of their matches prior to 2011 playing out like this – Cincy 2008, Paris 2009 for eg.
Rafa himself was playing in the zone tennis too at MC2010 esp in the final and giving Verdasco only one game! Rafa was also playing in the zone tennis for most of his FO2008 matches, hardly missing anything in his matches vs Almagro, Verdasco and of course Fed in the final!
Fed was playing in the zone tennis vs Murray in the SF and then Novak in the final at Cincy 2009. I remember back then how amazed I was with Fed’s footwork at Cincy 2009, literally dancing around the court, and both Murray and Novak had no answer. Fed was also in the zone at Cincy 2012 final, bageling Novak in the first set.
Murray himself was also amazing vs Fed at Shanghai Masters 2010 final, beating Fed 6-3, 6-2, playing very much in the zone, getting back everything Fed throw at him and with interest.
Even Cilic played in the zone tennis to beat Fed at USO2014 SF, there was nothing Fed could do to counter that Cilic. He was in the zone for one set against Novak in their IW 2014 encounter, beating Novak 6-1 in the set and Novak simply had no answer, until Cilic couldnt sustain that level and lost.
I think Rafa is right, that Novak simply couldnt play like that every match, if not he would be beating everyone in straight sets everywhere and at the slams. He wont be going five sets vs Murray or Stan or Anderson at the slams and be beaten by Stan at the FO.
Rafa is working to consistently play at a high level and I do believe if he can achieve that, he will have good chances vs Novak in BO5 matches.
Their H2H may be in Novak’s favor going forward but as long as Rafa can win their slam counters I think that’s more important. I do hope too that Rafa can and will beat Novak at the clay Masters if not he can’t at the HC Masters.