Doha final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Djokovic

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic will be facing each other for the 36th time in their careers when they battle for the Qatar ExxonMobil Open title on Saturday evening.

Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 24-11, including 13-3 in their last 16 meetings dating back to the start of 2014 and 5-2 in their last seven dating back to the fall of 2015. The Serb also won their two Grand Slam finals last season (Australian Open and French Open), but it was Murray who got the last laugh at the World Tour Finals. In the first-ever final match between No. 1 and No. 2 that would determine the year-end top spot, Murray defeated Djokovic 6-3, 6-4 to triumph in London.

The new world No. 1 has won eight of his last 10 tournaments, a stretch that includes the 2016 Rio Olympics and Masters 1000 events in Shanghai and Paris. He has extended his winning streak to 28 matches with straight-set victories in Doha over Jeremy Chardy, Gerald Melzer, Nicolas Almagro, and Tomas Berdych.

Djokovic slumped after beating Murray at Roland Garros, throwing away the top ranking just as much as Murray stole it from him. This week’s No. 2 seed has been trying to get back on track, but it has not been easy. Following routine defeats of Jan-Lennard Struff, Horacio Zeballos, and Radek Stepanek, Djokovic recovered from quadruple match point down and saved five match points in total to stun Fernando Verdasco 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-3 in Friday’s semifinals.

“Playing already in the finals of the first event definitely serves as a great confidence incentive,” the 12-time major champion said. “Obviously this is exactly what I hoped that I [could] achieve–to get to the finals. I’m hoping I can play on a high level and we can compete as we always did against each other. We always have very physical battles, long rallies, (and) entertaining matches. Between No. 1 and No. 2 in the world, it’s a perfect matchup for the final. Let’s see what happens.”

This is a rare instance in which Murray goes in as the favorite–which he is doing not simply based on his No. 1 ranking. The Scot has cruised in Doha, where Djokovic had to be let off the hook by Verdasco in order to survive. Roles were reversed last fall in London, where Murray needed three hours and 38 minutes (and saved one match point) to outlast Milos Raonic in the semis before Djokovic hammered Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1 in one hour and six minutes. None of that turned out to matter in the title match.

Now the challenger, Djokovic is no stranger to exacting revenge on his friendly foe. In fact, he has not lost back-to-back matches to Murray since the summer of 2012 (Olympic semifinals and U.S. Open final). Look for Djokovic, in typical fashion, to raise his level dramatically from what was on display against Verdasco.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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28 Comments on Doha final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Djokovic

  1. Great winning point from Djokovic. Pretty shocked by the three straight missed balls in the net in the end. I think he was just tired. I really thought he’d break back there. Kudos to Novak though. Quality performance from both.

    • Novak gets the win in the end. These two are the favorites going into the AO. We might just see them in the final there.

  2. Well done Novak. He’s back at the level where he could pull off the Australian. Other tournaments not so sure.

    And this was probably the best match quality wise between the two. In terms of drama, perhaps only AO 2012 was better.

  3. so much for my saying andy would win easily!! rubbish prediction on my part. i also said nole wouldn’t win ao…that’s looking like rubbish as well….

  4. Ah that’s ok Amy. Don’t be hard on yourself.

    Just ignore any nad predictions and focus on the right ones like Ricky and Me.

    Speaking of….

    I told you so Alison!

    Congrats to Meeeee!

  5. Just bought an annual subscription on tennistv to see this match and given the high quality it’s paid for itself already!

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