Rafael Nadal isn’t going to lose to an average Juan Martin Del Potro in the French Open semifinals. Nadal isn’t going to lose to an average Dominic Thiem in the final, either.
It’s going to take an opponent’s best–and probably an off day from the Spaniard, too–in order for an upset to occur.
Will Del Potro and/or Thiem (if he gets past Marco Cecchinato on Friday) be able to bring their best to the table on championship weekend at Roland Garros? Maybe not. Del Potro has no days off after playing three full sets against Marin Cilic on Thursday, while Thiem has never experienced the occasion of a Grand Slam final. But for the sake of debate, let’s assume the hypothetical that both the Argentine and the Austrian produce their peak tennis on Friday and Sunday, respectively.
Who has a better chance of taking down Nadal?
Well, let’s ask a different question first. What’s the only way to beat the King of Clay on his favorite surface–other than, of course, benefiting from some kind of injury or other reason why the normal Nadal is not on display? The answer is to take the racket completely out of his hands. The answer is to hit him off the court with huge serves and groundstrokes. The answer is to go for broke.
Del Potro can do all of that, primarily with his forehand. It is the third biggest shot in tennis right now, behind only the John Isner and Ivo Karlovic serves. In terms of effectiveness, it is Weapon No. 1 on the ATP Tour. After all, both Isner and Karlovic have made less than 70 percent of their first serves during their careers. Del Potro makes a lot more than 70 percent of his forehands. Isner has won less than 70 percent of the points even when he puts a first serve in play and less than 57 percent of his second-serve points. Del Potro wins a far greater percentage of points in which he unleashes a “Thortro” forehand.
Nadal is already all-too-familiar with the current world No. 6’s best shot. Although the 10-time french Open champion leads the head-to-head series 9-5, Del Potro has won two of their last three meetings to go along with a convincing 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 blowout in the 2009 U.S. Open semifinals.
Reducing Nadal to that kind of innocent bystander status is simply not going to happen on clay. Still, that hard-court result at Flushing Meadows suggests just how unplayable Del Potro can be when he is peaking.
Thiem is a similarly formidable but also totally different beast. Whereas Del Potro and Nadal could not be any more different in terms of playing style, Thiem is basically a poor man’s Nadal (and by “poor” I mean “16 fewer Grand Slams” kind of poor). Like the world No. 1, Thiem is content to camp out 10 meters behind the baseline and blast heavy topspin forehands (albeit with fewer RPMs than Nadal) and flat backhands (albeit with one less hand and far less reliability than Nadal).
The 10-time ATP title winner is prone to errors because he hits basically every ball as had as he can. Again, though, for the sake of this discussion let’s assume Thiem is connecting on those massive cuts. How good is he when he’s at his peak? Well, he is so good that he can beat Nadal at his own game–yes, even in a classic clay-court contest complete with a steady diet of grueling rallies. His serve is superior, his backhand is flashier (certainly not better), and his forehand is at least in the same ballpark.
But Thiem’s mental game is nothing like Nadal’s (see his 2017 U.S. Open meltdown against none other than Del Potro for the most obvious example) and his five-set stamina remains a question mark (in nine career five-setters, the 24-year-old owns a 4-5 record). Those factors do not bode well for his chances of winning a long, competitive, pressure-packed match against Nadal. And given that Thiem does not own that one lethal club in his bag like the Del Potro forehand, he is unlikely to beat Nadal in a kind of fashion that prevents a long, competitive, pressure-packed match.
At the other end of the spectrum, a subpar Del Potro would get blown out because his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Anything less than non-stop offense on his part would allow Nadal to run him ragged. However, even a subpar Thiem would at least make Nadal work.
So, really, it’s a bit of a compromise–which is just as two of tennis’ true gentlemen and fine sportsmen would have it. Del Potro has a better chance of winning because of his serve, forehand, and ability to keep Nadal off balance and on defense. Thiem has a better chance of simply being competitive.
Still, the bottom line is this: neither has a good chance of winning. Not in best-of-five. Not on clay. Not at Roland Garros.
[polldaddy poll=10025593]
[polldaddy poll=10025190]
[polldaddy poll=10023709]
thoughts?
Thiem no doubt. Nadal lost nine games in the first two sets against Schwartzman. Thiem lost eight in his whole quarterfinal against ZVEREV.
Benny, you can’t compare Diego and Sasha, when Sasha had already played three five setters to get to meet Thiem. Diego finished all but one of his matches in straight sets.
Thiem did take advantage of Sasha’s fatigue in their QF match. A fitter Sasha might push the match to four or even five sets though might not win it.
Benny, not a good comparison. Zverev was seriously compromised during the match. While Thiem is a formidable player with the proven ability to beat Rafa on clay, the match against Zverev doesn’t tell us anything about Thiem’s current level. Zverev would’ve lost that days to most other players as well.
Hopefully Cecchinato will make it interesting today.
Thiem, but still not good enough yet to beat this Rafa.
Delpo at his peak could push Fed to five sets at the FO (2009, 2012) but Fed is no Rafa on clay at the FO. Delpo has never beaten Rafa on clay, he took a set off Rafa at DC final on clay in 2011; whilst Thiem has beaten Rafa thrice on clay though not at the FO.
Bit of a flaw in the logic which relies heavily on Delpo’s 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 win v Nadal in the 2009 USO. Nadal was injured, with a large ab tear which had been increasing throughout the USO run up and made his lefty serve out wide very painful -“it kill me”. He said himself a few years later when he got tired of hearing about it. “Del Potro was playing at a very high level. Probably he would beat me anyway. But not 2 and 2 and 2.”
But Rafa will have to bring his best and he’ll need some cooperation from the weather imo.
Thiem, if he gets there.
The main concern for Delpo has to be fatigue. Five sets of tennis against Nadal on clay would just be too much for him, especially not having the usual break. That means he basically has to win in four sets at worst. That’ll require an awful lot of red-lining the forehand, and some poor play from Rafa. Wet/overcast conditions would also help to maybe make things competitive. If it’s dry, pretty much forget it. Delpo will be defending too much, getting stretched out wide by Rafa’s FH. He will get worn down and bullied around the court like almost all other opponents, probably in a short matter of time.
Thiem is less consistent than Delpo, and he’s unlikely to be as clutch, so he has that going against him. But what he should have in his favour is a decent tank, and a stronger clay court record. In some ways he is a bit like Wawrinka – an all-round power game that works pretty well on clay, with a one-handed backhand that can counter from deep in the court. However, he doesn’t have Wawrinka’s experience. Plus, Wawa didn’t play too badly against Nadal last year, and yet he still got hosed in three sets. Thiem himself copped a lesson in the semi, a friendly Rafa reminder that clay Masters & Roland Garros are different things all together. Nadal may not be quite playing to his 2017 form, but he’s not that far off, so that gives some indication of how hard it’ll be for Thiem to win.
Rafa is beatable but is Delpo up to the task? And, can Dominic Thiem reach his first slam final? These questions answered here … http://www.138mph.com/french-open-tennis-semi-final-previews-between-del-potro-and-nadal-and-cecchinato-and-thiem/
There is no male player posing a threat to healthy Rafa in RG. The only one who could pose some challenge is a peak Nole.
The two defeats in RG were inflicted on injured unhealthy Rafa.
Rafa victory in RG is a certainty.
We,, the JDP question was emphatically answered a few hours ago, but I think Thiem has a chance to get at least one set….but that’s it!
Yep, have to agree. There’s too many factors in Nadal’s favour at this tournament. Beating nadal on ability is one thing but beating him in this climate and over best of 5 is the final nail in the coffin for any opponent.
if youre going to beat him it has to be cool or rainy weather and you have to hit a tonne of winners so its physically like a best of 3 match.
I’m not sure who at their best would be a bigger challenge, but I think if Thiem brings his best to the final he’ll definitely have a good chance to win. Ricky is right that the mental factor may be most important. He has to believe he can beat Nadal, in best of 5, in a RG final. Does he believe that? I’m not sure.
At least he’s aided in this task in knowing he’s beat Nadal twice in the last two years on clay. And if he wins, it will be easy to say, in retrospect, that of course his time had to come sooner or later. But more than anything, Thiem has to stay aggressive to win. That’s what sunk Wawa in the final last year, imo. He started playing properly, but lost his nerve after a few games when some of his rockets came back with interest. He then started hitting at 60-70% pace instead of 90-100%.
As soon as you do that against Rafa on clay, you’re sunk. You will probably lose anyway, but you’re sure to lose badly if you stop trying to hit winners on a consistent basis. Rafa is like anyone else in that he can get discouraged when he sees winners flying by him. It’s the only chance, and Thiem has to swing for the fences all day long.