In 2012, Spain was missing Rafael Nadal and lost the Davis Cup final to the Czech Republic. Fast forward 365 days and the Czechs are again contesting the title tie against an undermanned opponent.
Serbia may not be dealing with an absence of Nadal’s magnitude, but it is without both Viktor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic. Troicki is serving a drug-related suspension and Tipsarevic, who is 1-5 in his last six matches, is sidelined with a heel injury.
Czech Republic vs. Serbia
Where: Belgrade, Serbia
Surface: Indoor hard
Czech Republic: Tomas Berdych, Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol, Jan Hajek
Serbia: Novak Djokovic, Dusan Lajovic, Nenad Zimonjic, Ilija Bozoljac
Draw
Radek Stepanek vs. Novak Djokovic
Tomas Berdych vs. Dusan Lajovic
Jan Hajek and Lukas Rosol vs. Ilija Bozoljac and Nenad Zimonjic
Tomas Berdych vs. Novak Djokovic
Radek Stepanek vs. Dusan Lajovic
How they got here
Czech Republic
d. Switzerland 3-1 in Geneva, Switzerland
d. Kazakhstan 3-1 in Astana, Kazakhstan
d. Argentina 3-0 in Prague, Czech Republic
Serbia
d. Belgium 3-0 in Charleroi, Belgium
d. United States 3-1 in Boise, United States
d. Canada 3-2 in Belgrade, Serbia
Analysis
With each team’s top player facing the other country’s second man (as always), this Davis Cup final should be knotted at 1-1 after the first day of singles action. Serbia will like the fact that Djokovic is up first and can snag the early momentum for the host side. The world No. 2 is 8-1 lifetime against Stepanek and has won seven in a row in the head-to-head series. Stepanek won two hard-court Challenger events this fall, but he is in a relative slump at the ATP level. Berdych should have no trouble evening the score in the second rubber. Lajovic actually registers at a decent 117th in the rankings, but he lacks pressure-packed Davis Cup experience. The 23-year-old is just 1-0 lifetime in the competition, with a victory in a dead singles rubber (6-4, 6-4 over Sweden’s Filip Prpic in 2012).
Doubles is often critical in Davis Cup, and this final should be no exception. Rarely does one tie feature such obvious favorites in all four singles matches; Serbia will almost certainly win Djokovic’s two rubbers and it will be a considerable underdog in the other two. As such, the winner of Saturday’s doubles showdown (assuming it is 1-1 heading into it) is in the catbird seat to hoist the trophy one day later. Djokovic will be an option for Serbia given the importance of the match, but Bozoljac has proven his worth with Zimonjic. Bozoljac turned in an incredible performance as the pair stunned Bob and Mike Bryan 7-6(5), 7-6(1), 5-7, 4-6, 15-13 during Davis Cup quarterfinal action back in April. In the semis two months ago, Bozoljac and Zimonjic lost a heartbreaker to Canada’s Daniel Nestor and Vasek Pospisil 6-7(6), 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5), 10-8. Those experiences, combined with home-court advantage in the form of a raucous Serbian crown, may help them overcome a formidable doubles duo in Berdych and Stepanek. Hajek and Rosol are currently nominated, but that is not happening unless Stepanek somehow upsets Djokovic on Day 1 and the Czechs hold a 2-0 lead heading into doubles.
If the tie goes five, the visitors will have an edge with Stepanek going up against Lajovic. Stepanek has contested six decisive fifth singles rubbers, including four since the start of 2007. The 34-year-old most recently won the clinching match of the entire 2012 competition, beating Nicolas Almagro of Spain in four sets. But it may not get to Stepanek. If Serbia takes the doubles point and leads 2-1, Djokovic can wrap up the title against Berdych. Djokovic is dominating their head-to-head series 14-2, including 12-0 on hard courts.
Predictions
Djokovic over Stepanek in 3
Berdych over Lajovic in 3
Bozoljac/Zimonjic over Berdych/Stepanek in 5
Djokovic over Berdych in 3
Serbia 3, Czech Republic 1
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
[Penultimate paragraph, last line] “Berdych somehow upsets Djokovic on Day 1” ?
You mean ‘Stepanek’.
Also, upsets notwithstanding, I’d rather Tomas/Radek play on Saturday – they stand a better chance of winning that tie as opposed to Rosol/Hajek.
good call, thanks
right, they are playing unless they are ahead 2-0
The Serbian team is wearing kit with prominent Tacchini logos, including Djokovic. I have never seen Rafa wearing anything but Nike logoed kit, in Spanish colours of course, when playing DC. Does this mean different sponsors react differently to this sort of thing?
Česko DO TOHO!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZaj2HVMPR0
The doubles match is the most crucial one…
Nice preview and analysis!
I think the doubles really will be fun, but I like Serbia winning both that match and the tie, 3-1.
Doubles hold the key to winning this tie. I think Nole will play the doubles as well and berd/step from the Czech
NID
Even though it is not his forte and he and Zimo lost to Step and Berdy the last time they played DC doubles. It will be a close call. Stepanek is less potent in doubles these days and was the weak link in the partnership with Leander at the WTF.
I’m having second thoughts. If the Bozoljac/Zimo pairing were able to beat the Bryan Brothers on their home ground on a hard court in the QFs it is possible the Serbs might conserve Djokovic for the confrontation with Berdych. Although unlikely, short of an injury, that a tired Berdy would be capable of causing an upset, they might play save by keeping Djokovic fresh for the encounter.
#AlternativeScenario
only reason they would bench Djoker is for inferiority in doubles. not to rest.
Well he could’t have done worse than poor Bozo
Contrary to expectation, they are not using Djokovic for the doubles. So I came to the right conclusion albeit possibly for the wrong reasons 🙂
We shall see, no?
Whatever the Serb rationale, Djokovic will be that much fresher against Berdych which reduces the chances of Berdych springing a nasty surprise.
ed251137 @November 16, 2013 at 3:11 pm
Berdych’s victory would be a marvelous surprise!
🙂
Depends who you want to win!
Quite against the expectations!
I think this is the best hand the Serbs could have played. Steps and Berdy are a formidable dubs team. Nole-Zimonic could have beaten them but that would have been a battle which could have depleted Novak too much, making him fair game for a Berdy singles upset.
Berdy-Steps will win the dubs, Novak will beat Berdy and the decider will be the 5th rubber. I am not sure Steps will pull it off. The young Serb he will play has got game, he will be fresher and all he has to do is make Steps run……………..
1st set goes to Step and Berdy with room to spare!!
Steps is on faya!!!
Czech mate……….the Czechs break to begin the 2nd set…………
So it will fall to Steps. I know he is 34 but he is a wily old bugger and Davis Cup brings out the best in him. It will be a fight to the death. My money is going on Steps to be the hero of the day.
Mind you, the speed with which the Czechs are going so far, Steps may be quite fresh himself tomorrow!
The young Serb is having a shocker of a game……………
I think the Davis Cup format would be even more exciting if teams were allowed substitutions, a la soccer, mid-match…………….
Serbia might already be regretting their strategy.
The above suggestion would change the dynamics a lot 🙂
would Djoker have made a difference?
Think the Serb team will regret their decision of benching Nole.
SNAP!!!!
Steps’s a monster!!
The commentator has just voiced what I said earlier. Stepanek was not at his doubles best last week but he’s playing his little socks off today.