Cincinnati previews and picks

There will be a new champion in Cincinnati. That much is guaranteed. Rafael Nadal is sidelined by an injured wrist, leaving the headlines to stars like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and/or perhaps a surprise or two like what we have seen at the Rogers Cup. Federer and Andy Murray could square off as early as the quarterfinals, while Djokovic is in the same section as Toronto finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Western & Southern Open

Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,079,555
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
2013 champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: With Nadal out of the tournament, this year’s draw was never going to be as nightmarish for Federer as the 2013 installment (his No. 5 ranking led him into a quarterfinal clash against Nadal, which the Spaniard won in three sets). It is, however, no walk in the park by any stretch of the imagination. Joining the world No. 3 in a tough bottom quarter of the bracket are Murray, Gael Monfils, Washington, D.C. runner-up Vasek Pospisil, Toronto quarterfinalist Kevin Anderson, and 2013 Cincinnati finalist John Isner. Federer’s road to the semis could feature Pospisil, Monfils, and either Murray or Isner. It is also an unkind draw for a struggling Isner, who has runner-up points to defend and would likely have to beat Anderson (in round one) and Murray just to reach the last eight.

The third section of the bracket is unquestionably weaker. It is loaded with talent, but also riddled with question marks. Milos Raonic is in great form but may be fatigued and struggled mightily with his return game in Toronto. Tomas Berdych has not won more than two matches at a tournament since Roland Garros. Ernests Gulbis has not won more than one match at a tournament since Roland Garros. Fabio Fognini has been losing consistently on all three surfaces. Dominic Thiem, a potential opening opponent for Raonic, has slowed down since a red-hot streak during this spring’s clay-court swing. Berdych has a favorable draw with Fognini as his nearest seed. Raonic’s could be more difficult if good friends Thiem and Gulbis get things back in gear.

Nobody is sitting prettier than Djokovic, right at the top of the draw. The world No. 1’s biggest threat prior to the semis is Tsonga, but the Frenchman will undoubtedly be fatigued after reaching the Toronto title match. Ferrer could displace Tsonga as Djokovic’s quarterfinal opponent, but the Spaniard has not scored a victory over Djokovic since 2011 and has lost six in a row. Tsonga may have a tough opener on his hands against Mikhail Youzhny, while Ferrer possibly awaits Philipp Kohlschreiber for his first match. Djokovic should have no problems whatsoever in the early rounds.

The one-handed backhand part of the bracket includes Stan Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, and Richard Gasquet (Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Toronto semifinalist Feliciano Lopez are also in this section and wield one-handers). Don’t be surprised, though, if Marin Cilic crashes the party. The Croat, a Wimbledon quarterfinalist, nearly beat Federer in the Rogers Cup third round and he is an awesome 38-15 for the season. One of the most intriguing first-round matchups pits Cilic against Lopez. Wawrinka, dealt a taxing draw, is likely to begin against Ivo Karlovic and would meet either Cilic or Lopez immediately thereafter. Dimitrov, whose Toronto semifinal performance against Tsonga was “unacceptable” according to coach Roger Rasheed, will hope to get back in business with a potential opener versus an ice cold Jerzy Janowicz.

First-round upset alerts: Ivan Dodig over (9) Ernests Gulbis – These two also faced each other in the Cincinnati first round in 2011, when Dodig had no trouble dismissing Gulbis 6-3, 7-6(3). The Croat is 2-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series. Gulbis is having a consistent year, but he has cooled off—in part due to inactivity—since his run to the French Open semis.

Kevin Anderson over (11) John Isner – Former college players and occasional doubles partners, Isner and Anderson are no stranger to facing each other. The South African is 3-6 in the head-to-head series, but two of his last three losses have come in third-set tiebreakers. Anderson is coming off a Toronto quarterfinal, while Isner has lost two straight matches since winning the Atlanta title. The question is: can Anderson recover from his collapse vs. Dimitrov?

(WC) Jack Sock over (16) Tommy Robredo – Robredo is the favorite according to seed and ranking, but will the court surface and Sock’s peaking confidence be enough to sway things in the 21-year-old’s favor? The up-and-coming American reached the Atlanta semis and gave Raonic serious scares in both Washington, D.C. and Toronto. Robredo’s tactic of standing way, way, way behind the baseline against big hitters may not work on a fast hard court.

Hot: Roger Federer, Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Jack Sock, Vasek Pospisil, Ivo Karlovic, Feliciano Lopez, Steve Johnson

Cold: Fabio Fognini, John Isner, Gilles Simon, Jurgen Melzer, Jerzy Janowicz, Nicolas Mahut, Federico Delbonis

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer, Marin Cilic over Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic over Tomas Berdych, and Andy Murray over Roger Federer

Semifinals: Djokovic over Cilic and Murray over Raonic

Final: Djokovic over Murray

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!