For a hot minute–or 48 hours to exact–the Western & Southern Open draw included every member of the former Big 4: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray. Yes, even Andy Murray. But just as he did last year, Nadal won the Rogers Cup and then immediately pulled out of Cincinnati. Still, Djokovic and Federer and playing for the first time since their epic Wimbledon final and Murray is playing for the first time since the epic fail that was his Australian Open retirement video. Even without Nadal, the last big tournament before the last Grand Slam of the season should be fun.
Western & Southern Open
Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $6,056,280
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: The alarming lack of parity on the ATP Tour right now is such that when the Big 3 all participate in a tournament, exactly three total players have a realistic chance of winning the title. When two of the Big 3 turn up, two players have a chance. When only one plays, that one and that one only will be the last man standing. The latter was the case in Montreal, where Nadal mostly sleepwalked his way to a fifth Rogers Cup title while Djokovic and Federer rested in advance of Cincinnati and the U.S. Open. Now Nadal is out; Djokovic and Federer are in.
Under normal circumstances, an event featuring two of the Big 3 would pit them on opposite sides of the bracket. But Nadal was still entered when the Cincinnati draw ceremony was held this past Friday and the third-seeded Federer ended up landing in Djokovic’s half. Thus it is the two Wimbledon finalists on one side and with Nadal absent…well…pretty much no one on the other side. You may not find a more imbalanced draw all season long.
The big winners in what had been Nadal’s half are Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Kei Nishikori, and Roberto Bautista Agut. There many other draw winners, as well, because it’s not like Thiem, Zverev, Nishikori, or Bautista Agut is invincible. Guys like Marin Cilic, Borna Coric, and David Goffin could pick up some much-needed momentum in time for the U.S. Open. Also watch out for an unseeded contingent in the bottom half that is led by Murray, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Miomir Kecmanovic, Gael Monfils, Hubert Hurkacz, Diego Schwartzman, Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz, and Guido Pella.
Murray will begin his singles comeback against familiar foe Richard Gasquet, while rising stars Auger-Aliassime and Kecmanovic are set for a blockbuster battle on Monday.
The other side is loaded beyond just Djokovic and Federer, as it is also home to Stefanos Tsitsipas, Montreal runner-up Daniil Medvedev, Montreal semifinalist Karen Khachanov, Montreal quarterfinalist Fabio Fognini, John Isner, Stan Wawrinka, and Nick Kyrgios. Isner is always dangerous in Cincinnati and he is already through to round two following a Sunday night victory over Dusan Lajovic.
Can anyone prevent a Djokovic vs. Federer semifinal that would for all intents and purposes be the final? Kyrgios is certainly capable, and he would be salivating over a chance to meet the top-seeded Serb in the quarterfinals. Isner has upset Djokovic once before in Cincinnati and they could face each other again in round three. Federer and Wawrinka are also on a collision course for the last 32.
First-round upset alert: Denis Shapovalov over (10) Fabio Fognini. Shapovalov did not make a run last week like did in his previous trip to Montreal, but he at least managed to win a match (d. Pierre-Hugues Herbert) before taking a set off the second-seeded Thiem. The 20-year-old Canadian won his only previous matchup with Fognini 6-3, 7-5 at the 2018 Rogers Cup in Toronto. Fognini is coming off a Montreal quarterfinal setback against Nadal, during which the Italian struggled physically in the second and third sets.
[polldaddy poll=10383758]
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Reilly Opelka, Taylor Fritz, Guido Pella, Diego Schwartzman, Radu Albot, Jan-Lennard Struff, Juan Ignacio Londero
Cold: Alexander Zverev, John Isner, Marin Cilic, Grigor Dimitrov, Lucas Pouille, Frances Tiafoe, Kyle Edmund, Denis Shapovalov
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Nick Kyrgios, Roger Federer over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Diego Schwartzman over Hubert Hurkacz, and Alex de Minaur over Guido Pella
Semifinals: Djokovic over Federer and Schwartzman over de Minaur
Final: Djokovic over Schwartzman
[polldaddy poll=10382696]
who ya got?
Whoa, Djoko over Schwartzman in the final? I mean Schwartzman in a HC Masters final? I mean no other candidate from that half of the draw?
Luckystar, Anything is possible. Schwartzman is no slouch. I remember him giving Rafa a heck of a lot of trouble in the French. I don’t believe he’s just a clay court specialist. I believe he can even beat Djoko if Djoko is off his game though that is not going to happen.
He has a solid backhand and is a great mover. He has a decent serve. He plays like Batista Agut who has been a thorn in the flesh for Djoko relatively speaking. So it’s possible what Ricky predicts but not probable imho.
This year’s Cincy is very hard to predict, although the Djoker is of course the most likely winner. But since the top half is so loaded, I also wouldn’t be surprised if someone takes him out before the final – maybe even the Maestro himself who has already seven Cincy titles. Will be very interesting to see in what kind of shape Roger and Novak are after their epic Wimby clash. Both could be somewhat vulnerable.
The top half of the draw resembles a vicious shark tank, while after Rafa’s withdrawal the bottom half is full of sardines and a few slippery eels…
Yeah, really Roger and Novak have to be each in different halves.
I don’t blame anyone,but maybe the tournament organizers who should quickly readapt the draw, and instead of Rafa just add one of the top 2 seeds.
Simple and better for everyone (from a health perspective, but also better competitiveness).
who else would you pick? no one is likely.
and hard court is Schwartzman’s best surface, so…more likely than in MC, Madrid, or Rome!
Schwartzman played really well to win title recently but doubtful he produce that again.
Scwartzie played really well on grass this year too.
Really hope Djoker give NK a lesson on How to be a Champion! That’s a match I’d like to see but I wouldn’t be surprised if NK loses early. He’ll probably make an effort though since NK’s been “super salty ™” about Djoker recently. Or maybe he’ll be afraid to put his money where his mouth has been.
I’m picking Fed for the win in Cincy. He’s always played well there and Djoker doesn’t seem all that motivated for Masters’ titles these days. I’d give Fed a “hot” rating, too. Aside from winning Halle and coming as close as you can in Wimbledon he had a very good clay court season considering he hadn’t played on clay in years.
Wow, the 1st half is so strong. You even have Tsitsipas, Kyrgios, Isner among Fed and Djokovic.
Btw, Fed can win this, except that he can get tired of playing daily.
I feel Agut, Thiem, Nishi, Cilic, Coric and Goffin, anyone of those could make it to the final from the other half of the draw.
Djoko has possibly Kyrgios or Khachanov and Fed has potentially Medvedev or Tsitsipas to deal with before meeting each other. There’s no guarantee that they’ll meet imo.
QF:
Kyrgios d. Djokovic
Federer d. Medvedev
Thiem d. Zverev
Nishikori d. Goffin
SF:
Federer d. Kyrgios
Nishikori d. Thiem
F.
Federer d. Nishikori
Quart: djoko defeats Kyrgios
Semifinal Djoko defeats Federer
Final Djoko defeats Nishi
QF
Djokovic d. Kyrgios
Federer d. Tsitsipas (now think Medvedev May be tired)
Cilic d. FAA
Nishikori d. Fritz
SF
Djokovic d. Federer
Nishikori d. Cilic
F.
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Fog in a tight 3; and Fed Ex will deliver!!