Cincinnati R3 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Dimitrov, Shapovalov vs. Raonic

Despite Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, the top quarter of the Cincinnati draw is still absolutely loaded. Third-round action on Thursday includes intriguing showdowns featuring Novak Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov, Denis Shapovalov, and Milos Raonic.

(10) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Grigor Dimitrov

Djokovic and Dimitrov will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Western & Southern Open quarterfinals on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at a commanding 7-1 in favor of Djokovic, who is 4-0 against Dimitrov on hard courts, 8-1 in total sets during those matches, and has won five in a row overall at the Bulgarian’s expense dating back to the 2013 French Open. They most recently faced each other this summer at Queen’s Club, where the Serb cruised 6-4, 6-1.

After finishing runner-up at Queen’s Club, Djokovic took his comeback to new heights in the form of his fourth Wimbledon title. The world No. 10 endured a minor and potentially only brief step back with an early Toronto loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas, but so far in Cincinnati he has defeated Steve Johnson and Adrian Mannarino. Dimitrov, who is the defending champion of this Masters 1000 event, followed up a first-round bye with a 7-6(5), 7-5 victory over Mischa Zverev on Wednesday night. Still, the fifth seed is a disappointing 22-14 in 2018 and his inconsistency will likely cost him against an opponent whose combination of defense and offense is just about as good as it gets.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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Milos Raonic vs. Denis Shapovalov

The other third-rounder in the top quarter of the bracket is an all-unseeded affair, but it is not an unexpected one based on Rafael Nadal’s absence. Raonic faced lucky loser Malek Jaziri instead of Nadal in the second round and got the job done 6-3, 7-5, setting up a all-Canadian contest against Shapovalov. The 27-year-old preceded that result by beating Dusan Lajovic 6-3, 6-3, helping him improve to an abbreviated 23-9 for what has been another injury-plagued season.

Shapovalov leads the head-to-head series 1-0, having won their only previous encounter 6-4, 6-4 earlier in 2018 on the red clay of Madrid. The 19-year-old has not done anything overly spectacular like he did at this time last season, but consistent results are allowing him to defend plenty of his points and should have him seeded for the upcoming U.S. Open. Shapovalov reached the third round in Washington, D.C. and Toronto and he has done the same in Cincinnati with defeats of Frances Tiafoe and Kyle Edmund. The pressure is once again on Raonic in this matchup against his much younger compatriot, and Shapovalov also has a slight edge in current form.

Pick: Shapovalov in 3

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30 Comments on Cincinnati R3 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Dimitrov, Shapovalov vs. Raonic

  1. Welp, so far the Djokovic-Dimitrov script is going EXACTLY as I thought it probably would… Grigor destroyed Novak in the first set and is now up a break in the second. But I will be SHOCKED, if Dimitrov manages to NOT choke it away… This is just what guys like Dimitrov and Cilic do these days against the Big 3. Obviously part of it is just the greatness and competitive drive of the Big 3, but a huge part of it is that guys like Dimitrov and Cilic are mental midgets. Instead of staying tough, they usually overthink the fact that they are on the verge of beating an all-time great, and they start spraying balls. Right on cue, 99.9999 percent of the time.

    Dimitrov has a a huge opportunity to make a statement here. He is the defending champion, and Novak is the most recent major champ. These are precisely the types of moments that Dimitrov and Co. have to seize. But I just can’t believe that he will seize when he never, ever, ever does. He can really make a big statement here by staying tough and closing this match…

  2. I was shocked when I saw the score. Novak hasn’t looked that great her so far. But I still thought he would have an easy time of it.

    It will be a big surprise if Dimi can mangecyo get the win. Defending 1000 points from last year’s win puts some real pressure on Dimi.

  3. Dimi throwing away a break in the second set, I’m afraid this may become a three sets match with Djoko winning again. Dimi just doesn’t know how to win matches these days; he has become more one dimensional, not much varieties in his game. Perhaps too much relaxation in the sun and at the sea that he has forgotten how to play tennis!

  4. The choke is nearly complete! I’m telling you- it’s not physically possible these days for Grigor to not choke. It’s really quite sad. And it always comes on so quickly. As soon as he got tight and Novak broke back, it’s like he just shut down. Pathetic.

    • Simply because he didnt put in the hard work these days! You can tell by his poor decision making, poor execution of shots esp the overhead smashes!

      The guy seems to lose interest in competing and playing tennis, I believe if he puts in the hard work like last year, he would have done better than what hes been doing right now.

  5. Sure enough, Dimi gets broken. Here we go again. Now Novak has won the second set. Any bets on who will win the third set? These mental letdowns are getting to be all too typical for Dimi.

  6. Yay, he finally got a set, did Nole! Gosh. He had trouble with Mannarino yesterday…I don’t know. Cincy is not his favorite place I think. Dimitrov may be more motivated. And the rains starts again. And I’d love a bit of rain! But East Coast has all the rain.

  7. I actually think that rain helps Dimitrov if anyone! There is zero doubt in my mind that Novak was on his way to victory. I’m sure he still is tomorrow, assuming they don’t get back out there tonight, but Dimitrov at least will have a shot if he gets to start fresh tomorrow. He started well today, all he can hope for is that he starts well tomorrow.

    Although given that Novak is such a smart player, I would think he will now know exactly what to do to win that set tomorrow.

  8. Nole! That was a sublime break of serve. Idemo Nole! Really liked his energy those first few games of the third set.

    Oh no. RAIN, and more Rain tomorrow too.

  9. Tsitsipas is ahead of Dimi in the race, and Tsitsipas is just an upstart!

    As least Goffin, who drops out of top ten, has his reasons for not doing well, being injured time and again. Dimi has no injury excuses.

  10. I feel bad for the players. At this rate, they might end up needing to either cancel the tournament or have like a Tuesday final. At least everyone is going to have to play multiple matches per day at some point, so it should be fair.

    Rafa is surely sitting at home thinking about how glad he is that he didn’t go to Cinci!

    I would assume that Cincinnati has “under the lights” night matches. Is this correct?

    • “Rafa is surely sitting at home thinking about how glad he is that he didn’t go to Cinci!”

      Hheehehehe….Oh yess Kevin!…I’m veryyyy glad finally mother nature show some understanding to Rafa this time!…He just going thru hell at Wimby!!Urgh!!…Thank u God!!…

      Nonetheless i feel sorry for other players…But,yeah…we can’t win against mother nature…

    • I’m sure Cincy has lights – I know it’s in the midwest but it’s not like it’s England! – but I don’t know on how many courts.

      Yes, I am VERY happy that Rafa pulled out.

  11. honestly, I hardly remember Fed on the wrong side of scheduling.

    He gets to play against noname players on cool nights. He gets the best courts. Not that he does not deserve this. But Djoker and Nadal equally deserve the best courts.

    It would be interesting to see how Fed copes up for two matches today, weather permitting. For sure, he is not winning the title with this sort of schedule.

    • Fedexal- You’re right that, if there is one aspect of the game where Fed’s age absolutely comes into question, it’s definitely playing two matches in a day. I don’t care who you are or how good your conditioning is- if you’re 37 years of age, having to play AT LEAST 4 matches in 3 days is just not a winning proposition… Especially if he has to play Mayer, then Stan, then Del Po/Kyrgios, and THEN Djokovic/Cilic!

      If he managed to progress through this draw, he might potentially have to play 3 major champions in 2 days in order to lift that trophy. Honestly, his could be Novak’s best chance to get the Golden Masters, given that Novak is one of the most athletic and well-conditioned players the game has ever seen, and Fed would be pretty worn down if he managed to make the Final.

      However, at this point in Fed’s career, I don’t think he cares nearly as much about winning a Masters title as he does about just getting as much match play in as possible before the US Open. I would imagine that as long as he gets at least two more quality matches in, he will be content with his US Open preparation. Obviously he would prefer to win another Cinci title, but knowing this is likely his second to last season of his career, he’s surely thinking about the majors, not Masters tournies…

      • Agreed, but Fed hates losing. He would still want to win even though if winning tires him a bit. He is looking for match play at the moment.

        I still think he will win both of today’s matches.

      • Fed will beat Stan. I think Stan is mentally incapable of beating his idol! Djokovic played a bit less than a set today, right? About the equivalent of a short training session. I don’t see a problem vs Raonic. They’re hardly likely to engage in long baseline rallies.

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