Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a potential blockbuster title match in Cincinnati, but they have tough semifinal tests on their hands. Federer is facing David Goffin, while Djokovic is going up against Marin Cilic.
(11) David Goffin vs. (2) Roger Federer
Federer and Goffin will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Western & Southern Open final on Saturday. Goffin stunned Federer 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the semis of the 2017 Nitto ATP Finals, finally getting on the scoreboard against his idol after losing their first six encounters. The 37-year-old Swiss is 4-1 lifetime against Goffin on hard courts, including 1-0 outdoors following a 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 beatdown at the 2016 Australian Open.
This marks Federer’s lone tuneup for the U.S. Open, as he skipped Toronto thinking that he would probably get plenty of match practice under his belt in Cincinnati. After all, he was 42-8 lifetime at this event heading into this week and he is searching for his eighth title. It’s so far, so good for Federer, who has advanced with wins over Peter Gojowyczk, Leonardo Mayer, and Stan Wawrinka. Goffin has emerged from a relative slump by taking out Stefanos Tsitsipas, Benoit Paire, Kevin Anderson, and Juan Martin Del Potro. The 11th-ranked Belgian enjoyed an incredible Friday with straight-set upsets of both Anderson and Del Potro, but duplicating that effort against Federer will be tough to do–especially in Cincinnati.
Pick: Federer in 2
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(10) Novak Djokovic vs. (7) Marin Cilic
Djokovic and Cilic will be squaring off for the 17th time in their careers on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at a dominant 14-2 in favor of Djokovic, but he had been a perfect 14-0 before Cilic suddenly reeled off a current two-match winning streak. The Croat prevailed 6-4, 7-6(2) at the 2016 Paris Masters and 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-3 after saving a championship point in this summer’s Queen’s Club final.
Djokovic made a nice escape of his own on Friday night in Cincinnati, recovering from a break down in the third set to beat Milos Raonic 7-5, 4-6, 6-3. The 10th-ranked Serb preceded that victory with defeats of Steve Johnson, Adrian Mannarino, and Grigor Dimitrov–winning the latter two of those matches in three sets. Cilic punched his ticket to the semifinals with victories over Marius Copil, Karen Khachanov, and Pablo Carreno Busta, earning his first two wins in three-setters. The seventh-ranked Croat has bounced back nicely from a disappointing Wimbledon with a 5-1 record so far on hard courts. Still, Djokovic looks inspired for a first-ever Cincinnati title and the sample size of his success against Cilic is large despite having lost their last two contests.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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I’ll go with the underdogs – Cilic in three; Goffin in three.
I wish to see Goffin winning the title here (was hoping for Anderson to win here but too bad he was knocked out by Goffin).
Cilic in three, Federer in two…Djokovic’s win over Dimitrov and Raonic seemed a bit laboured. Come to think about it, so did the win against Mannarino.
If it’s Djoko and Fed coming through, then I’ll expect another hammering Djoko would receive from Fed. Stan played very well yet he couldn’t beat Fed going the distance, I doubt Djoko is playing better tennis than Stan.
I feel Raonic was playing the wrong way vs Djoko; had he been able to come to the net more and rushed Djoko, he could’ve won the match. On the quick HC, it’s best to take away time from Djoko so that he won’t have much time doing all the retrieving. His opponents so far – Mannarino, Dimi and Raonic – all playing baseline rallying with Djoko, playing right into his hands.
If Cilic is also engaging in baseline rallies with Djoko then he’s doomed to fail, unless he plays in the zone tennis throughout the match!
Milos had shoulder injury and it’s the main reason why his serve suffers! Without his first serve bombs he couldn’t beat Novak! Yet he was ahead a break in each set and if he had been able to serve better Novak would have been gone bu now! Novak was lucky to win!
Cilic is obvious mental midget and he stands mo chance against Nole!
Fed is tired! He may end up losing to Goffin even though I favor him on this fast surface.,,
Djoko just grind and grind to scrape through his matches, that’s why I’m frustrated with the ATP field right now! To me Djoko is not playing well, but these players just couldn’t take advantage of it. I mean Dimi is a top ten player, yet he choked when he was having the edge. Raonic might have his shoulder issues, but he’s having the upper hand during the match, the more attacking of the two but he just stayed back to rally with Djoko.
It takes a 19yo Tsitsipas who has the guts to beat Djoko, that speaks volume of how poor the field is right now with the exception of only a few guys.
I’m glad that Stan is finding his way back, he belongs to the top tier; Delpo without his wrist issues belongs there too. I don’t know about Murray but Kei is starting to play well. Goffin should do well when he plays his more aggressive game (he’s back to top ten now that’s he’s in SF of Cincy).
I really dislike how Dimi is playing now, he should be the one dropping out of top ten soon, Isner is out now, maybe Thiem to follow; hope Kei reaches top ten this year and Stan next year.
Thiem won’t exit. He has very few points to defend while goffin and Dimitrov have a massive amount. Isner also has good amount of points to defend, like anderson. Thiem is safe now, and if he starts playing like he knows how to he will gain some points.
Djoko in 2, maybe 3. He just makes no unforced Errors and I think, he really wants this Title.
Have to say that I was SHOCKED when I woke up this morning and read that Fed had won….I turned off the tv last night at 10:15 and Wawrinka was in total control of the match…up a set and dominating rallies….how did Fed recover to win?!!…..Fed in 2; Cilic in 3.
Well, Fed was arguably in the driver’s set for the first set, despite spraying forehands worse than I’ve seen in a while, but he just played a horrible tiebreak and Stan really stepped in up in the tiebreak. As the 2nd set wore on, Fed was still spraying a lot of balls, but through everything he was absolutely UNTOUCHABLE on serve! I couldn’t believe he could be protecting his serve so well while being so off otherwise. In the entire 2nd set, including the tiebreak, Stan only won something like 5 or 6 total points on Fed’s serve. Fed, on the corner hand, had chances in all three sets to break, but squandered all of them. That’s where Fed was the worst last night- during the biggest points. However, through these last few months of inconsistency and mental fragility from Fed, there is no question that he has stayed tough and competed until the end. He’s still so good at just staying calm and not giving up. And this time it paid off- Stan ended up being the one to crack in the end.
Goffin showed us at the WTF last year that he is obviously capable of beating Fed. He was awesome in that match. Fed kinda dropped off after winning the first set, but Goffin was just awesome. Arguably the best match he’s played. We just have no idea how the two full matches in one day, and ending near 1am, will affect a 37 year old Fed… It could be nothing. It could mean a massive advantage for Goffin. Normally I would choose Fed to destroy Goffin on a fast court like Cinci. Fed absolutely wiped the floor with him in Basel, only a couple weeks before WTF actually.
As for Djokovic-Cilic, I personally think that Cilic should be favored to win. Novak has looked so shaky, and Cilic is a former Cinci champ. The conditions play right into Cilic’s hands. HOWEVER, I have just been disgusted this week so far by the Cilic/Dimitrov/Raonic class. So I will not be at all surprised if Cilic fails to put away Novak after being in a winning position, just like he did against Rafa the other day. Cilic has the game to blow all 3 of the Big 3 off the court in a place like Cinci, any day of the week. He’s just too mentally fragile, though, while Big 3 are mental giants comparatively.
He is currently on a 2 match win streak against Novak, though, so maybe he’s turned around his mental block against Novak? We shall see… Personally, I want to see a Fed-Novak final, but that’s just me.
I’m going with Federer and Cilic. I don’t think Federer is playing very well, but Goffin doesn’t have the kind of game that usually bothers Federer much.
And while I’m surprised by it, Djokovic just isn’t playing well even after the big win at Wimbledon. To be honest, I’m surprised he has gotten this far.
U c the thing is, Novak may not be playing well, but he plays the BIG points very well and that’s y he has got this far, and was able to beat Rafa at Wimby!! His serves bail him out loads!! I think NoVak will win this title and go on to win USO! Rafa’s serves are just not good enough to do this this year, im afraid!
Cheryl- what do you think about the fact that Goffin won their last meeting? Do you think it was a fluke, so to speak? I’m not sure what to think about it… Fed has destroyed him 1 and 2 just a few week prior at Basel, and then was completely in control of that match before falling apart. The reason I’m wondering if Fed might be vulnerable against Goffin again tonight is because Fed has seemed to have a lot of similar mid-match collapses ever since the one in Indian Wells Final. Goffin took advantage very well of that in WTF, so I wonder if he could do it again here?
Then again, Fed has always destroyed Goffin on quicker surfaces, and despite being indoor, the O2 court has traditionally been a relatively slower indoor court if I remember correctly. So who knows… But given that it’s Cincinnati, I guess the safe bet is to pick Fed.
Kevin, fed vs Goffin tonight is one of the easiest picks of all time. EITHER Dimon can get that one right.
#HintDefinitelyNotGoffin
#InTwo
#CaptObv
Did you not say the exact same thing for the WTF semis, Hawks? Was Fed not struggling with his game a little going into that match, like today? I’m not saying that your pick isn’t solid, but you sound you think Goffin has no shot!
Or are you trying for a little intentional jinxing, perhaps? Or maybe the ol’ “make it sound like there’s no excuse for Fed to lose, so it looks that much worse if he does lose” routine? 😉😘
ouch!
Ricky, Hawks going hard at you these days! 🙂
I think Djoko has had tough competition. Dimi and Raonic punched above their class. I also think Djoko has been playing during the day in high heat and humidity.
He’s not at his very best but he’s still playing at a very high level.
Similarly, a lot of Federer’s errors vs Wawa were forced errors. Fed playedcat an extremely high level to win.
Cilic doesn’t have the game usually because having the game INCLUDES mental strength.
Cilic will win the first set probably and Djoko will likely win either way.
Goffin doesn’t have the game to beat this Fed. Nor does this Nole. Nole has to be at his very best at which point he can beat any version of Fed. But he’s not.
Fed to win Cincy NID (as I said pre tournament). He’s amazing.
Nole in 3. Sure, I guess it is surprising that Nole has come this far but he can be a fighter. It’s easy to forget how tough he used to be, since he had that long….not sure what to call it – bad mental patch and loss of energy followed by an injury and adjustment. He destroyed a nice tennis racquet after he lost the first set to Milos. It wasn’t pretty but it worked and he had that refuse to lose look in his eyes. I think he beats Cilic again.
My heart is all for Goffin to get the win. I’m definitely surprised Goffin got this far and it’s great to see him in the SF here. But my pick is Fed in 2, lol.
tsame.
Fed in 2, Cilic in 3. Djoker just seems a grinder and has 3 tough 3 setters. But wont e surprised if he beats Cilic.
Well, it’s true, to many here, Novak is a “grinder”. But for me – not at all …I love watching him move and cover the court and anticipate shots/get balls back almost no one else can. I love Novak tennis. And I’m hoping he gets back to his best!
tsame.
hawksley, I’m afraid Nole is not going to make the final! Come on, Nole, get a break back!
Geez, Cilic is building oodles of confidence this set 🙁
I love watching Nole, even when he’s a bit off – but hate seeing him lose to Cilic. dang it. Nole might not want this title enough – he’s not being aggressive enough. When he gets too cynical, he goes flat, loses his fire and the refuse to lose look – like he had v Milos.
He mightn’t but most likely he will. Cilic looked like he might beat Rafa in Montreal for a while too.
Resilience usually overtakes inconsistency.
Fed’s longevity is due to his first shot, his serve.
Wins so many easy points on his serve. just untouchable
LOL, Nole takes it out hard on the towel after Cilic gets the first break in the 2nd set. These are still tough emotional times – he knows he can playing sharper.
Come on, Nole! down 0-3 to Cilic 2nd set. Not going well atm.
#EmptySeats
Well, imo, all y’all who made Novak in 3 predictions are looking in the best shape right now. It’s expected that Cilic will still lose here- that’s just the reality of it. However, if I’m not mistaken, Cilic won their last meeting after losing the first set, so maybe the Cilic in 3 picks will turn out to be good picks!
Hope Nole breaks here.
Cilic woul go down meekly to Federer.
YES!!! 3-1.
Needs to consolidate.
Djokovic.
#SMH
Sidenote- anyone here going to the Open?
yes
Haha, of course you are, Ricky! 🙂 Unlike me, you probably get to be there for the entire tournament! At least I assume all the tennis writers do?
#Jealous
Wow. Cilic is actually competing. Then Nole hands the break back with a double. See, Dimitrov? If you just stay competitive and earn break points, there at least always a chance that the other guy will break down on that one point. I’m not suggesting that Cilic isn’t also mentally weak like Dimitrov, but Cilic isn’t THAT bad… Cilic at least has some recent wins over the Big 3 to his name.
All that being said, I want Novak to win so we can get a Djokerer final!