Can Andrey Rublev recover from his drop in form this year?

Twelve months ago, Andrey Rublev was on top of the world. The Russian had just lifted his first-ever Masters 1000 trophy, storming back from 4-1 down in the third set against Holger Rune to claim the title in Monte-Carlo.

He went on to make the final in Banja Luka the next week before winning an ATP 250 in Bastad and adding two more Grand Slam quarterfinals and a Masters 1000 final to his resume. By the end of the year, Rublev had returned to his career-high ranking of No.5 in the world and it looked as though the 26-year-old had well and truly raised the ceiling in his career.

There were cracks, though. Often Rublev would display extreme emotions on court–not the usual outbursts of frustration at a missed ball or umpire’s call, but real distress and anger that at times bordered on anguish. While he was winning, that was largely swept under the rug–particularly because of the Russian’s lovable personality off the court.

That is, until things began to turn pear-shaped.

Following a brilliant start to 2024 (title in Hong Kong, quarterfinal in Melbourne), Rublev hit a major stumbling block in the Middle East. A surprising exit to young gun Jakub Mensik came in Doha before the real shock occurred in Dubai. Competing in the semifinals against Alexander Bublik, Rublev’s on-court emotions overflowed when a call went against him in the 12th game of the third set.

His distress manifested itself in an outpouring of rage at the line judge. A complaint was made that Rublev had sworn at the staff member in another language, and the chair umpire ruled that as a result he would be defaulted. This sent the 26-year-old into a further spiral, with the prospect of zero prize money and ranking points pushing him over the edge.

The incident divided fans and commentators, with many believing it unfair that he was defaulted without certainty over whether he swore or not. His prize money and ranking points have since been reinstated and Rublev has apologized (somewhat) for the outburst. One thing became abundantly clear in Dubai, however: all is not well with Rublev, and his outbursts could no longer be swept under the rug.

Since then, Rublev has won just one match–against an embattled Andy Murray in Indian Wells. He is now riding a three-match losing streak, with a straight-set loss in Indian Wells at the hands of Jiri Lehecka followed by an opening loss in Miami. Most recently, Rublev crashed out of the Monte-Carlo Masters in a result that had extra sting to it.

Rublev had 1000 ranking points to defend in 2024, having won in Monte-Carlo the previous year. This was where the rubber hits the road: lose here and the Russian would face serious consequences for his ATP ranking. That’s exactly what he did, however, facing off against world No.46 Alexei Popyrin and losing to the big-serving Australian 6-4, 6-4.

Now, Rublev is staring down the barrel of a clay season, where he can’t buy a win and has a further 420 points to defend from now through Roland Garros. His ranking already fell to No. 8 in the world following his Monte-Carlo exit. If Rublev is unable to turn things around quickly on the European clay, his very presence in the top 10 will be under threat.

How likely is it that Rublev will be able to rectify this slip in form? While no such thing as a crystal ball exists in tennis, checking out what the betting markets say is generally a strong indication of how matters will play out over the coming months. There are a range of different odds that can be examined, but perhaps the best is whether or not Rublev will continue to break new ground in 2024.

The Russian has never reached a Grand Slam semifinal. If he was to do so this year, it would represent a significant breakthrough–and it can be assumed he’d need to resolve some of his existing mental issues in order to do so. If you are considering a wager, top tennis betting sites are currently offering odds of +275 for Rublev to make a Grand Slam semifinal from the three more opportunities to do so in 2024.

This puts Rublev as the fifth favorite to accomplish that feat, behind Holger Rune, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz. Bear in mind that this doesn’t include the four men who have already made Grand Slam semifinals in 2024, as well as those who are assumed to be strong chances of doing so– such as Carlos Alcaraz.

Based on these numbers, the year doesn’t bode well for Rublev. While it would be unlikely for the 26-year-old to never push on to higher honors, it would not be a surprise if it took Rublev some time to overcome his inner demons. He needs to get to a place where he’s playing healthier tennis, and that may not be this year.