In terms of quantity, this is the busiest week on the clay-court calendar: one 500 event (Barcelona) and a pair of 250s (Munich and Bucharest). We are in between Masters 1000 events–Stefanos Tsitsipas triumphed in Monte-Carlo on Sunday and both Madrid and Rome are on the immediate horizon–but the fun doesn’t stop.
Barring a late withdrawal, this week’s festivities will be headlined by Rafael Nadal’s return in Barcelona. Other notable players in action are Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur, Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune, Taylor Fritz, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, and Stan Wawrinka.
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,782,960 Euros
Top seed: Andrey Rublev
2023 champion: Carlos Alcaraz (not playing)
Draw analysis: Nadal is back in action at an official ATP event for the first time since January (Brisbane). The 37-year-old Spaniard will kick off his campaign against up-and-coming Italian Flavio Cobolli, with the winner to face De Minaur. Tsitsipas also finds himself in the top half of the bracket along with Lorenzo Musetti, Ugo Humbert, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Arthur Fils. Carlos Alcaraz was initially the No. 1 seed in Barcelona but withdrew because of an arm injury.
Alcaraz’s exit means Rublev is the highest-ranked player in the tournament, but he has won a grand total of only one match in his last three starts (Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo). The Russian will be challenged in the bottom half of the draw by plenty of guys who are stellar on clay, such as Ruud, Karen Khachanov, Sebastian Baez, Nicolas Jarry, Cameron Norrie, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
Quarterfinal predictions: Lorenzo Musetti over Borna Coric, Alex de Minaur over Tomas Machac, Casper Ruud over Sebastian Baez, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry over Karen Khachanov
Semifinals: Musetti over De Minaur and Ruud over Etcheverry
Final: Musetti over Ruud
BMW Open
Where: Munich, Germany
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: 579,320 Euros
Top seed: Holger Rune
Defending champion: Holger Rune
Draw analysis: Rune will be looking for a third consecutive Munich title when he takes the court this week. The 20-year-old Dane has been inconsistent at best so far in 2024, but he advanced to the Monte-Carlo quarters and pushed Jannik Sinner to three sets—so some confidence should be restored. A nice draw in Munich should help, as Zverev, Fritz, Jack Draper, and Dominik Koepfer in the top half. However, Jan-Lennard Struff is a possible semifinal foe for Rune and cannot be discounted.
Zverev and Fritz are on a collision course for a semifinal showdown and should be able to make it happen. Draper is dangerous but clay is his worst surface, while Koepfer has been in awesome form this season but is 0-3 lifetime against Zverev. As for Dominic Thiem, given his current woes it would be hard to see him getting past Fritz in round two.
Quarterfinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Dominik Koepfer, Taylor Fritz over Francesco Passaro, Jan-Lennard Struff over Maximilian Marterer, and Holger Rune over Yannick Hanfmann
Semifinals: Zverev over Fritz and Struff over Rune
Final: Zverev over Struff
Tiriac Open
Where: Bucharest, Romania
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: N/A
Top seed: Francisco Cerundolo
Defending champion: None (inaugural event)
Draw analysis: The first installment of the Tiriac Open predictably has the weakest field of this week’s three events. That being said, even though there isn’t a whole lot of firepower at the top (Francisco Cerundolo and Tallon Griekspoor are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds) the depth is impressive. Shapovalov, Wawrinka, Miomir Kecmanovic, David Goffin, Martin Fucsovics, and Joao Fonseca make up a strong unseeded contingent.
Shapovalov and Wawrinka could go head-to-head in round two before the winner would likely meet Griekspoor in the quarterfinals. Fonseca and Lorenzo Sonego are going head-to-head in an intriguing first-rounder and they are part of a wide-open section where Alejandro Tabilo is the No. 4 seed. A tougher top half of the bracket features Cerundolo, Kecmanovic, Goffin, Richard Gasquet, Luca Nardi, and Luciano Darderi.
Quarterfinal predictions: Francisco Cerundolo over Luciano Darderi, Sebastian Korda over Pedro Martinez, Joao Fonseca over Alejandro Tabilo, and Tallon Griekspoor over Denis Shapovalov
Semifinals: Cerundolo over Korda and Griekspoor over Fonseca
Final: Cerundolo over Griekspoor
The weather to be very changeable this week. Even snow in Munich.