Buenos Aires SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Competition for Rafael Nadal will heat up on Saturday in Buenos Aires in the form of Dominic Thiem, who will go up against the Spaniard during semifinal action. The winner may have an advantage in the title match, as No. 2 seed David Ferrer still has to complete his rain-delayed quarterfinal contest against Pablo Cuevas.

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Argentina Open on Saturday. Their only previous showdown came in round two of the 2014 French Open, with Nadal cruising 6-2, 6-2, 6-3.

Fast forward more than a full season and Thiem is now a three-time ATP tournament champion and has climbed to No. 19 in the world. All three of the 22-year-old Austrian’s titles have come at 250-point events on outdoor clay, such as this one in Buenos Aires. Thiem is two victories away from another winner’s trophy after taking out Pablo Carreno Busta, Gastao Elias (saved one match point), and Dusan Lajovic.

Thiem wins
Solid but unspectacular since getting a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed, Nadal ended Juan Monaco’s comeback tournament with a 6-4, 6-4 victory before scraping past Paolo Lorenzi 7-6(3), 6-2 on Friday. The fifth-ranked Spaniard is seeking a second consecutive title at the Argentina Open.

This is a huge opportunity for Thiem–even on clay–given Nadal’s relative lack of dominance at the moment. While the 14-time major champion is obviously right at home on the slow stuff, it is also the underdog’s favorite surface. It remains to be seen, though, how Thiem’s one-handed backhand will stand up to Nadal’s heavy topspin. His one-hander is flashy, but it is not as consistent as Richard Gasquet’s or as powerful as Stan Wawrinka’s. Count on this one being competitive, with Nadal ultimately wearing Thiem down in a physical baseline battle.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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64 Comments on Buenos Aires SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. I predicted three sets and a tough match, but watching this has still been tough. I did say that physical stamina would be a factor.

    • i thought it was more mental. that between the legs shot seemed to be the momentum changer. a bad decision on a critical point. thiem is prone to mental lapses. for chokers it can play on their minds leading to a poor sequence.

    • now Thiem becomes another player to score a win over rafa on clay.

      Inexplicable… he needed to play around 70-75% to beat this Thiem and could not even do that…

      Thiem’s strategy has been so poor but he is still about to win this match! 6-4 now…

      • no not inexplicable vr…he is just not at the races mentally speaking.
        he says he’s better but he obviously isn’t.
        one reason he could play well at the end of last year was because, as he said, he had no expectations of doing so.
        now the expectations and pressure are back he is just folding again.

        • amy, i know what are you are saying but some of the mistakes he made today… just inexplicable..even if it is mental, what exactly has harmed him SO MUCH that he cannot even put the ball in court on a clay court!

          He hits some vintage rafa forehands, makes me think he is getting there but then hits the worst possible shot he can hit to ruin everything.

          • vr..he has to act by changing the dynamic don’t you think??? he is just trapped in some weird cycle otherwise which is just self-sustaining….
            he needs new people!!!!

    • sorry but i honestly feel like shouting at him and toni to wake up and smell the coffee!! they are just clueless in not meeting the problem head on and making some damn changes….

  2. He could not even get a good length on that second serve return , it was blood MATCH POINT!

    How low will rafa go? He just keeps going lower and lower!

      • Age can only be said to be a factor if he loses some big match in a slam against a big player like Djokovic but what is going on here is something else.

        • vr..i am sorry to say it but his relationship with toni which apparently is somehow set in stone is now a huge liability for him and has been for a good while now.

          • also don’t you think that the chronic inability to change is itself a problem and saps the life out of you thus making the problems worse and worse…
            it’s virtually a neurosis in its own right…

      • am not surprised tbh hawks….
        writing on the wall as it will be until he finally does something
        in fact all this is just routine and foreseeable now

        • it would in fact be surprising if he wins a title, even if that title is a 250/500 event on clay…and we are talking about the clay GOAT here!

          • Please stop saying this as though most of us are not aware of what is going on.

            My other concern is that Rafa cannot afford to slug it out in these kinds of lower level matches because he is getting older and the injuries and miles on his body have taken a toll.

            I have agreed that the primary issue is this mental problem, the lack of confidence. So I would really appreciate it if you would not make this personal.

            Rafa apparently does not intend to do anything about it, which makes me question whether the will to win is gone.

  3. impressive. rafa did look a little under the weather but came alive in the third. thiem might be reliable now. breakthrough year?

    • No, I just think that Thiem ran into a Rafa who is clueless now.

      I do give Thiem credit for hanging in there when he was tired and coming up with some great shots when he needed it most.

      But I do not think this win portends a breakout year.

  4. Welp nailed my prediction on the head. Wasn’t convinced by Thiem before this match, and that hasn’t really changed afterwards. Rafa plays a B-B+ clay match for his standards and he wins this every time.

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