Buenos Aires SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Monaco vs. Almagro

Monaco (vs. Stepanek in Cincinnati)Rafael Nadal is one win away from a Buenos Aires title match against either doubles partner Juan Monaco or fellow Spaniard Nicolas Almagro. Standing in Nadal’s way on Saturday is Carlos Berlocq.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Carlos Berlocq

Nadal is still trying to pick up steam in his comeback from a second half of 2014 that was doomed by a wrist injury and appendicitis. His first three events of this season did not go well, with losses to Michael Berrer in Doha, Tomas Berdych at the Australian Open, and Fabio Fognini last week in Rio de Janeiro. At the Argentina Open, however, Nadal eased past Facundo Arguello then destroyed Federico Delbonis 6-1, 6-1 in the quarters.

Up next for the fourth-ranked Spaniard is a fourth career meeting with Berlocq on semifinal Saturday. All three of their previous encounters–all in 2013–have gone Nadal’s way. He prevailed twice on clay and once on hard courts at the Shanghai Masters, winning six of seven total sets. Not unlike his opponent, Berlocq came into this week with no momentum. The 74th-ranked Argentine was just 1-4 for the year, but he booked his spot in the semis by defeating Diego Schwartzman, Fabio Fognini, and Blaz Rola all in straight sets. Berlocq is playing inspired tennis in front of his home crowd, but he does not have the necessary weapons to deal with such a steep climb in competition level.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8-10 games

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Juan Monaco vs. Nicolas Almagro

Monaco and Almagro will also be squaring off for the first time since 2013. Almagro leads the head-to-head series 7-3 (6-3 at the ATP level), including 6-2 on clay. The two veterans faced each other twice on the slow stuff in 2013, with Almagro getting the job done 6-3, 7-5 in Barcelona and 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 in Hamburg.

Both men are seeking some resurgent form. Almagro missed much of last season due to a foot injury, but he reached the Sao Paulo quarterfinals and so far in Buenos Aires he has ousted Pablo Andujar, Albert Ramos, and Tommy Robredo. Monaco plunged out of the top 100 last August and September, but he is back up to No. 60 and climbing. Coming off a quarterfinal in Rio de Janeiro, the 30-year-old Argentine boasts wins this week over Maximo Gonzalez, Leonardo Mayer, and Pablo Cuevas. Monaco’s two-hour and 38-minute battle against Cuevas will not help as he attempts to withstand Almagro’s superior firepower.

Pick: Almagro in 2

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18 Comments on Buenos Aires SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Monaco vs. Almagro

  1. This guy came out and just decided to go for it in front of his home crowd. Rafa is not yet himself, so he made it interesting. But Rafa has taken command and will be serving for the match.

    I am trying to not even think about IW right now. Rafa still has to win the final and get a title. That will be something. He needs it.

  2. hawkeye,

    I agree with you. In that first set Rafa was standing so far behind the baseline and ceding court position to Berlocq. Delbonis tried to do it in the previous match, but Berlocq was able to actually hit those aggressive shots with Rafa deep behind the baseline. It was maddening to watch. Rafa had his shot to break in the first set when he was up 0-40 against Berlocq. But he couldn’t get it done. He had another opportunity at 6-5 when he had him down 0-30.

    The good thing is that Rafa was able to fight back down 6-2 in the tb to get that first set. He played better in the second set to take control.

    Winners to UE’s ratio definitely needs improvement. At this point, I will take it. A win is a win is a win. This guy at least came to play and pushed Rafa. I was betting that there might be someone who would come out and take it to Rafa a bit. I voted for Rafa winning in straight sets, losing 8-10 games. I noticed that many voted for 3-4 or 5-7. But I had a feeling that this one might be closer.

    Now Rafa needs to go out there and get that title tomorrow!

    I am going to watch the Acapulco final later at 10:00 pm my time. I don’t want to miss Nishi and Ferrer!

    • Thanks for reminding me nny. Should be a cracker. Perhaps not Dubai but still.

      Rafa back to No. 3 if he wins or Special-K loses.

      With a win, Special-K can reach a career high No. 3 if Rafa finds a way to somehow lose to pico.

  3. So Rafa again played ugly and won

    Maybe a title will help allay issues

    Rem in 2013 it was the same, he was poor most matches till he won the sao paulo title and then he rocked Acapulcon n maintained all the way till Roland garros

    • sanju,

      I will take winning ugly. I will just take wins. Each win is a step forward for Rafa. He’s won ugly in the past. He’s won when he wasn’t playing anywhere near his best. That’s what the great champions do. The truth is that he didn’t have to play his best to beat the likes of Berlocq, although I do give the guy credit for coming out and playing some good tennis.

      I am not expecting this to be like 2013. I know that Rafa lost in the final at Vina del Mar and it was hard to see. Then he did come back and win Sao Paulo in some really bad conditions and then Acapulco. Then he played IW and we all know what happened. But I am just not sure what will happen at IW this time. I am trying not to think about it and just keep cheering Rafa on for the win here in Buenos Aires. Getting that title will at least get him some much needed confidence and wins under his belt. IW is a big step up in competition. But I will worry about it when it starts.

  4. I am going to take some positives out of this tournament so far. I think that’s what Rafa does.

    First, I have noticed in Rafa’s last few matches that his dtl and cc backhand seem to be have reappeared. He’s hitting those shots with more authority and confidence and accuracy. Even before that mind blowing dtl backhand winner against Delbonis yesterday. He’s going for that shot now. In this match he was hitting his backhands so much better. That’s a good sign.

    Second, Rafa did fight back from 2-6 down in the tb. Now, one can say that he should not have been in that position in the first place, but he was still mentally present enough to raise his level of play and erase four set points. That’s a good thing! Then he played some great pressure shots to get the tb and the first set.

    Third, Rafa played better in the second set than he did in the first set. That was also the case against Delbonis. At least in this match he faced an opponent who came to play and didn’t quit after losing the first set. He went for his shots and forced Rafa to raise his level of play. Rafa’s court positioning in the second set was much better, not standing so far back. He was more aggressive. getting better court positioning. I think he wore down Berlocq in the second set.

    Now Rafa has to win the final. That’s it. He needs this title. This is a work in progress. Just watching Novak and Fed in the final, made me realize how much work Rafa still has to do. But he will get there.

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