The Grand Slam season may be over, but the pace will pick up again with the onset of two 500-point tournaments. Nine of the top 11 players in the race to the World Tour Finals are in action this week, and all 11 would have been if not for injuries to U.S. Open finalists Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka.
Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal lead the way at the China Open, joined by Milos Raonic, Dominic Thiem, David Ferrer, and Lucas Pouille. At the Japan Open, meanwhile, Kei Nishikori is the No. 1 seed as he aims for his third title at that event. Nishikori could be challenged by Gael Monfils, Marin Cilic, and Shenzhen champion Tomas Berdych.
China Open
Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $2,916,550
Points: 500
Top seed: Andy Murray
2015 champion: Novak Djokovic (not playing)
Draw analysis: Nadal could be in line for a quarterfinal rematch with Pouille in what is an intriguing bottom quarter of the bracket. The second-seeded Spaniard should make quick work of Paolo Lorenzi before possibly running into countryman Albert Ramos-Vinolas, who finished runner-up this past week in Chengdu. Assuming Pouille takes care of Yen-Hsun Lu, his second-rounder would come against either Grigor Dimitrov or Steve Johnson. All four of the previous meetings between Dimitrov and Johnson have come since the start of last summer and they have faced each other twice in the last three months. Raonic and Shenzhen runner-up Richard Gasquet are also in the same half of the draw.
Murray’s draw could not be any better. The top-seeded Scot should coast through two rounds and his likely quarterfinal opponent, Roberto Bautista Agut, is a well-documented disaster against the top 10. At 100 percent, Thiem would be expected to reach the semis and face Murray—but the 23-year-old Austrian has struggled since overloading his schedule from January through the French Open. The other seed in Thiem’s quarter, David Ferrer, is on the way down—and relatively fast—at 34 years old.
Hot: Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, Lucas Pouille, Alexander Zverev, Pablo Carreno Busta, Yen-Hsun Lu, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Paolo Lorenzi
Cold: Dominic Thiem, David Ferrer, Fabio Fognini, Andreas Seppi, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Quarterfinal predictions: Andy Murray over Roberto Bautista Agut, Alexander Zverev over David Ferrer, Milos Raonic over Pablo Carreno Busta, and Rafael Nadal over Steve Johnson
Semifinals: Murray over Zverev and Nadal over Raonic
Final: Murray over Nadal
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Rakuten Japan Open
Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,368,605
Points: 500
Top seed: Kei Nishikori
2015 champion: Stan Wawrinka (not playing)
Draw analysis: Nishikori lost to Benoit Paire in the semifinals of this tournament in 2015, but he has to like his chances of regaining the trophy. Not only is the world No. 6 in excellent form, but his draw is also a favorable one—and it’s one that was vacated by Wawrinka (back injury). First-round opponent Nicolas Almagro beat Nishikori in the Tokyo quarters two years ago, but this no longer the same Almagro. Joao Sousa or Martin Klizan should be easy pickings for the top seed in round two and potential quarterfinal adversary David Goffin has cooled off dramatically since Wimbledon. Saturday’s semifinals are likely to feature another installment of the familiar Nishikori-Cilic rivalry.
Monfils may have a more difficult time of things at the bottom of the bracket. The second-seeded Frenchman finds himself in the same quarter as a confident Ivo Karlovic and in the same half as Berdych and Nick Kyrgios. Berdych and Kyrgios are on a collision course for the last eight, although they have tough respective openers on their hands against Gilles Muller and Ryan Harrison. If the ninth-ranked Czech gets past Muller, he could face Marcos Baghadatis in the second round.
Hot: Kei Nishikori, Gael Monfils, Tomas Berdych, Ivo Karlovic, Gilles Muller
Cold: David Goffin, Gilles Simon, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Benoit Paire, Martin Klizan
Quarterfinal predictions: Kei Nishikori over Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic over Feliciano Lopez, Nick Kyrgios over Marcos Baghdatis, and Ivo Karlovic over Gael Monfils
Semifinals: Nishikori over Cilic and Karlovic over Kyrgios
Final: Nishikori over Karlovic
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who ya got?
Ah, normal service has resumed. 🙂
What do I do without you, Ricky.
Tokyo:
QF
Nishikori d Anderson
Cilic d FLopez
Berdych d Kyrios
Monfils d Karlovic
SF
Nishikori d Cilic
Monfils d Berdych
F
Nishikori d Monfils
Beijing
QF
Murray d RBA
Thiem d Ferrer
Raonic d Gasquet
Nadal d Pouille
SF
Murray d Thiem
Nadal d Raonic
F
Murray d Nadal
Ive got almost the same picks as Ratcliff apart from :
Bejing :Zverev losing to Murray in SF
Tokyo: Goffin d. Anderson then loses to Nish
I think Raonic’s slump continues (mental problema) with Gasquet taking him out. I don’t see Rafa making semis unfortunately for the same reason.
Murray over Thiem or Pouille in the final is the call.
In Japan, Nishi over Cilic and Berdych over Monfils. Nishi over Berdych.
Sorry Murray over Gasquet (not Thiem) or Pouille in the final.
Beijing:
QF-
Murray over RBA
Sock over Troicki
Raonic over Gasquet
Rafa over Dimitrov
SF-
Murray over Sock
Rafa over Raonic
Final-
Rafa over Murray
Tokyo:
QF-
Nishikori over Vesely
Cilic over Lopez
Kyrgios over Baghdatis
Monfils over Karlovic
SF-
Cilic over Nishikori
Monfils over Kyrgios
Final-
Monfils over Cilic
I don’t think that Thiem will get to the quarterfinals. Rada could face Dimi or Johnson in the quarterfinals. I think Rafa can get to the semis. If Rafa meets Raonic inb the semis that will be tough. Murray has a great draw and is the favorite to win this. RBA won’t tyiubje him.
I think Nishi has a great shot at winning Japan this time. He’s in great form, healthy now.
My post above is filled with autocorrect gibberish. But I did mean to say that RBA will not trouble Murray.
Raonic, Carreno Busta, Lu and Lorenzi are not hot, they are all coming in off bad losses, Milos with BTB bad losses.
Thiem is not cold, he was in the Metz final recently and last week’s loss was because he was there for the money.
Agree with you about Thiem. That’s why I picked him to beat Sascha Z. and make the SF. We’ll see what happens. I’m a Thiem fan, so maybe I’m biased.
I have the same.
Raonic hot lately????
Well I just hope that Ricky not comparing hot and cold. Don’t you? Or do you.
Maybe some follow this forecast for Raonic?
http://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2016ATPBeijing.html
They have him making the final. But I’m not feeling it. Murray, sure. Raonic, no.
I agree, I have him winning 2 rounds at the most. I have Pouille in the final from that half.
Almost did the same with Pouille — to the final. He was absolutely fantastic in Metz. Then took time off. He should be ready to roll. I just Rafa to beat him!! 😀
…meant – just want Rafa to beat him and qualify sooner than later for WTF
Definitely consider Pouille dangerous.
I don’t know that Raonic will make the final. I think that Rafa does have a shot to beat him should they meet in the semis. Pouille has a good chance to get to the final.
How exactly is Muller hot?
Simon is no longer cold doing well in Metz.
Players have fun sometimes.
China Open : “…Off-Court vs. On-Court. Welcome to the player party!”
https://twitter.com/ChinaOpen/status/782956071396773888/photo/1
Completely at a loss for words, augusta 😀