The China Open appeared to be in line for an all-seeded semifinal lineup, but Grigor Dimitrov upset Rafael Nadal on Friday. Thus Dimitrov joins Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer on Saturday’s schedule.
(1) Andy Murray vs. (5) David Ferrer
Murray and Ferrer will be squaring off for the 20th time in their careers when they meet in the semifinals of the China Open on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 13-6 in favor of Murray, who has won six in a row at Ferrer’s expense dating back to the Vienna tournament in the fall of 2014. The second-ranked Scot has taken 14 of their last 16 sets after most recently prevailing 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of this year’s Australian Open.
It would be an understatement to say that these two veterans have gone in opposite directions since their showdown Down Under. Among Murray’s titles in 2016 are Wimbledon and the Rio Olympics, and he boasts an awesome 58-9 record following straight-set wins in Tokyo over Andreas Seppi, Andrey Kuznetsov, and Kyle Edmund. The 34-year-old Ferrer is just 33-18 for the 2016 campaign and down at 13th in the rankings (23rd in the race to London prior to the start of this week). But he punched his ticket to the semis thanks to defeats of Pablo Cuevas, Fabio Fognini, and recent St. Petersburg champion Alexander Zverev. Murray is 11-2 lifetime against Ferrer on hard courts and even though the Spaniard is starting to play better, there is no reason to think anything will change this time around.
Pick: Murray in 2
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(3) Milos Raonic vs. Grigor Dimitrov
It is safe to say Dimitrov’s early-season slump is a thing of the past. The world No. 20 is 15-5 in his last 20 matches following wins in Beijing over Steve Johnson, Lucas Pouille, and Rafael Nadal. He outlasted Johnson 7-5, 6-7(9), 6-4, defeated Pouille 6-7(3), 7-6(0), 6-4 after the Frenchman served for a straight-set victory, and upset Nadal 6-2, 6-4 on Friday night. His 15-5 stretch also features semifinal finishes in Cincinnati and Chengdu in addition to a quarterfinal run in Toronto.
Next up for Dimitrov on Saturday is a fourth career meeting with Raonic, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1. They have not faced each other since the 2014 Australian Open, where Dimitrov got the job done 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(10). He also prevailed 6-3, 6-4 at the 2013 Brisbane event, while Raonic’s lone victory came via a 7-5, 6-4 decision on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm in 2011. The sixth-ranked Canadian booked his spot in this week’s semis by beating Florian Mayer, Malek Jaziri, and Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets. Raonic had to play two matches on Friday because of rain, but he spent less than two and a half hours on the court. Additionally, Dimitrov has played for almost seven hours already this week, so fatigue may actually be more of a factor for the Bulgarian.
Pick: Raonic in 3
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