Beijing SF previews and predictions: Murray vs. Ferrer, Raonic vs. Dimitrov

The China Open appeared to be in line for an all-seeded semifinal lineup, but Grigor Dimitrov upset Rafael Nadal on Friday. Thus Dimitrov joins Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer on Saturday’s schedule.

(1) Andy Murray vs. (5) David Ferrer

Murray and Ferrer will be squaring off for the 20th time in their careers when they meet in the semifinals of the China Open on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 13-6 in favor of Murray, who has won six in a row at Ferrer’s expense dating back to the Vienna tournament in the fall of 2014. The second-ranked Scot has taken 14 of their last 16 sets after most recently prevailing 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of this year’s Australian Open.

It would be an understatement to say that these two veterans have gone in opposite directions since their showdown Down Under. Among Murray’s titles in 2016 are Wimbledon and the Rio Olympics, and he boasts an awesome 58-9 record following straight-set wins in Tokyo over Andreas Seppi, Andrey Kuznetsov, and Kyle Edmund. The 34-year-old Ferrer is just 33-18 for the 2016 campaign and down at 13th in the rankings (23rd in the race to London prior to the start of this week). But he punched his ticket to the semis thanks to defeats of Pablo Cuevas, Fabio Fognini, and recent St. Petersburg champion Alexander Zverev. Murray is 11-2 lifetime against Ferrer on hard courts and even though the Spaniard is starting to play better, there is no reason to think anything will change this time around.

Pick: Murray in 2

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(3) Milos Raonic vs. Grigor Dimitrov

It is safe to say Dimitrov’s early-season slump is a thing of the past. The world No. 20 is 15-5 in his last 20 matches following wins in Beijing over Steve Johnson, Lucas Pouille, and Rafael Nadal. He outlasted Johnson 7-5, 6-7(9), 6-4, defeated Pouille 6-7(3), 7-6(0), 6-4 after the Frenchman served for a straight-set victory, and upset Nadal 6-2, 6-4 on Friday night. His 15-5 stretch also features semifinal finishes in Cincinnati and Chengdu in addition to a quarterfinal run in Toronto.
Dimitrov 1
Next up for Dimitrov on Saturday is a fourth career meeting with Raonic, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1. They have not faced each other since the 2014 Australian Open, where Dimitrov got the job done 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(10). He also prevailed 6-3, 6-4 at the 2013 Brisbane event, while Raonic’s lone victory came via a 7-5, 6-4 decision on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm in 2011. The sixth-ranked Canadian booked his spot in this week’s semis by beating Florian Mayer, Malek Jaziri, and Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets. Raonic had to play two matches on Friday because of rain, but he spent less than two and a half hours on the court. Additionally, Dimitrov has played for almost seven hours already this week, so fatigue may actually be more of a factor for the Bulgarian.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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14 Comments on Beijing SF previews and predictions: Murray vs. Ferrer, Raonic vs. Dimitrov

  1. I got milos losing mainly because he had to pull a double shift from the rain delay and he has to play again so soon. As for murray he is winning this whole thing of course.

    • I did not see Milos’ match against Carreno Busta but the commies in another match said he rolled his ankle. Because Milos went on to win the match I hope it is not too serious.

      Yes, Milos had a lot of work for 1 day. His match against Jaziri was over in 1 hour but PCB made him work harder. At least he has the latest SF so he should have time for a proper rest.

      I am predicting Milos in 3, but that is as much hoping as anything.

  2. Stuart Fraser (a Journalist):
    “Andy Murray will play Grigor Dimitrov in the China Open final in Beijing tomorrow as Milos Raonic has withdrawn.”

    Carole Bouchard ‏(a Journalist):
    “Partial tear in a ligament on right ankle for Raonic. He still tried to practice but was unable to. Will go to Shanghai cause has a bye.”

        • Had Rafa played the first set like he did in R1 and R2(first set), he would’ve won the first set comfortably against Dimi given how badly Dimi played in his first two service games. Rafa might lose the second set but he would most probably regroup and won the final set.

          Was Rafa overcome by his nerves that he started the match so poorly? My guess is that he wanted so much to qualify for the WTF that he got nervous as he progressed through the draw, for there’s no reason that he had no problem with his serves for three of the four sets he played so far before the QF but come the QF, the disaster occurred.

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