Beijing R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Lorenzi, Tomic vs. Carreno Busta

Doubles partners and fellow Spaniards Rafael Nadal and Pablo Carreno Busta will contest their openers in Beijing on Tuesday. Nadal is kicking off his campaign against Paolo Lorenzi, while Carreno Busta is facing Bernard Tomic.

Paolo Lorenzi vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be playing for the first time since the U.S. Open when he takes the court for his 2016 debut at the China Open on Tuesday. The fourth-ranked Spaniard returned from more than two months off because of a wrist injury to capture the gold medal in doubles at the Rio Olympics in addition to a fourth-place performance in singles. But he fell in round three of the Cincinnati Masters to Borna Coric and lost a five-set thriller to Lucas Pouille in the last 16 at the season’s final Grand Slam. Nadal is 37-12 for the year and currently on tenuous ground in eighth place in the race to the World Tour Finals.

Up first for this week’s second seed is a third career meeting with Lorenzi, who has lost both of their previous encounters. Nadal got the job done 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-0 on the clay courts of Rome in 2011 and 7-6(3), 6-2 earlier this season in Buenos Aires. Lorenzi, however, is playing some of the best tennis of his life at 34 years old. The Italian reached a career-high ranking of No. 35 in the world and he currently registers at 39th. With 22 ATP-level match wins this season, Lorenzi captured his first career ATP title in Kitzbuhel and recently advanced to round three of the U.S. Open and the St. Petersburg quarterfinals. A well-rested and determined Nadal, however, should be able to make Lorenzi’s stay in Beijing a short one.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Bernard Tomic

Carreno Busta, who won with Nadal in doubles on Monday, will also kick off his singles campaign on Tuesday. The 38th-ranked Spaniard owns almost exactly half of his career ATP-level match victories this season (32 of 66) and he won his first TP title this summer in Winston-Salem. Carreno Busta advanced to the third round at Flushing Meadows (lost to Dominic Thiem)  and he is coming off a 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-6(5) setback against Marcos Baghdatis in last week’s Chengdu opening round.

Hoping to deal the 25-year-old a second consecutive first-round defeat on Tuesday, Tomic began his Asian swing with a quarterfinal performance in Shenzhen (beat Ryan Harrison, lost to Thomaz Bellucci). The 22nd-ranked Australian, who fell right away at the U.S. Open to Damir Dzumhur, has struggled since reaching the Cincinnati quarterfinals and his recent 6-2, 6-2 loss to Bellucci does not bode well for his chances in Beijing. A more confident Carreno Busta should be able to pull off a minor upset in this first-ever meeting between the two players.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 3

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