Beijing QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov will be going head-to-head for the eighth time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the China Open on Friday.

Nadal is a perfect 7-0 in the head-to-head series, including 4-0 on hard courts. They have not faced each other since last fall at the 500-point indoor event in Basel, where the Spaniard prevailed 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Their most memorable showdown to date came during quarterfinal action at the Australian Open in 2014, when Dimitrov started hot but ended up going down 3-6, 7-6(3), 7-6(7), 6-2.

This season has been a painful one for Nadal, literally and figuratively. The world No. 4 pulled out of the French Open after two matches and missed Wimbledon because of a wrist injury, which is a big reason why he has not yet wrapped up a spot in the World Tour Finals. Nadal is trying to bounce back from a fourth-round U.S. Open loss to Lucas Pouille and he is doing a good job of it so far in Beijing, where he is 20-4 lifetime. This week’s second seed destroyed Poalo Lorenzi 6-1, 6-1 before holding off Adrian Mannarino 6-1, 7-6(6) on Thursday.

A Nadal-Pouille rematch came extremely close to headlining Friday’s schedule, but the Frenchman failed to serve out what would have been a straight-set victory over Dimitrov. Pouille eventually succumbed 6-7(3), 7-6(0), 6-4 after twice coming within two points of finishing the job. Dimitrov preceded that comeback by outlasting Steve Johnson 7-5, 6-7(9), 6-4 in a first-round thriller. The 20th-ranked Bulgarian is 14-5 in his last 19 matches, a stretch that includes semifinal showings in Cincinnati and Chengdu plus a quarterfinal performance in Toronto.
Dimitrov 3

“He’s a great player [who] is playing well,” Nadal said of Dimitrov. “He’s one of the players on tour with high potential. I know I have to play my best tennis to win against him, so I’m trying to focus on that.”

Although that is Nadal’s pre-match analysis every time he takes the court, it is rarely true–and it should not be true this time around. Even if the favorite is less than than his best, which has only been the case in one of four sets this week (the second against Mannarino), he should not have too much trouble in a matchup he has absolutely dominated in the past. A motivated Nadal will likely cruise into the semis and continue his push to climb from seventh to sixth in the race to London.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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33 Comments on Beijing QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

  1. How many times nadal has to disappoint losing to people who he should beat until ya stop thinking so highly of nadal? Countless times the past 2 years he loses to big dogs. Pouille, coric, del Porto, cuervas, theim, verdasco, 2015 was much worse than this list.

    • looooooooooool you have to remember this site should be called Rafa tennis….they back him to win every match no matter what.

  2. Don’t tell me ya going to play the nadal is injured card again because it’s been used too many times already and he don’t look injured at all.

  3. Rafa could still turn this around but I doubt he will.

    Y’all don’t get it.

    I said before the tournament I doubted he’d make semis and I picked Dum Dum to win today because why not.

    Rafa hasn’t had the level of confidence for over two years to maintain the consistency needed to go deep in tournaments on a regular basis anymore.

    He has failed to FULLY address his admitted “mental problema” (Rafa’s own words) which causes him to lose more frequently to guys ranked well below him.

    #NothingAllThatNew
    #NotRocketScience

  4. Similarly, everyone but me had Raonic going deep. He’s injured again and about to lose before semis (like I said he would). He’d been playing shite leading up to China anyways.

  5. Well Rafa did win at Mc and Barcelona and reached semi at Madrid and the Olympics. It’s just that the fast courts of Beijing and Shanghai don’t suit his game. Worse still, he couldn’t buy a first serve most of the time and his second serve is horrible too.

    Look at his court position, playing well behind the baseline, and Dimi is controlling the court. How to win like this?

    • Court position is poor because Rafa has said it himself that he can only play on the line when he is feeling confident.

      I didn’t say Rafa never goes deep into tournaments anymore, just that it is much less often and shoudn’t be counted upon. Throw previous h2h out the window which Ricky based his pick on.

      How to win like this? Address the mental problema better. Period. Two different Rafas in the first and second sets vs Mannarino. Has LESS to do with the opponent IN MY OPINION.

      I saw an inconsistent Rafa this week and knew that Dum Dum has been on a nice little run lately so I picked Dum Dum.

      #BrokenRecord

  6. Raonic is not injured he is just tired because the rain delay made him play two matches in one day. Also I’m rooting for nadal right now but it doesn’t matter who roots for him it won’t change the out come. I want Rafa to win second set so that he won’t lose in under 1 hour and I get to watch more

    • Must have been a caffeine pill then…

      Carole Bouchard ‏@carole_bouchard 44m44 minutes ago
      Trainer out a second time for Raonic. Look like a foot issue but not sure. Took a pill.

      Carole Bouchard ‏@carole_bouchard 34m34 minutes ago
      Right foot issue for Raonic. Seems his physio went to talk to the trainer at the end of the set.

  7. A true champ makes adjustments all the time ftw. Look at konta today. I’m not saying she is a champ but she was down 0:4 against Zhang today and changed what she was doing(reduced drop shots) and took over the match from there on. Rafa is barely doing anything different

    • But for the majority of the last two year, he hasn’t played like the true champion that he was. He is frozen in his mind and is no longer capable of analyzing and adapting (what has DEFINED him in the past) in that state.

      • He can’t win on this court playing counter punching tennis. Dimi is hitting hard and aggressive and serving big. If Rafa continues to play his type of tennis, he can only win on clay! His serve is also his own undoing! I mean how can he serve so poorly all the time? He can’t even hold serve in the first set and has to face BP in practically every service game! Ridiculous! This is the worst match that I have seen him play.

    • THAT he is capable of doing at any time.

      You just never know with him anymore.

      But picking him to go deep in tournaments anymore is just being misinformed and hanging onto the past.

      Doesn’t mean he won’t go deep. But that goes for a lot of players.

  8. sigh. agree with everything hawks has been saying. rafa isn’t rafa any longer. and won’t be until he admits what is going on and deals with it by getting help.

  9. What u guys think about the last game shvedlova vs radwanska. I think shvedlova getting owned because she had to play early to make up for the rain delay and has to do a double shift plus radwanska had a rest day.

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