Beijing and Tokyo previews and predictions

In this same spot on last year’s calendar, Rafael Nadal was making his first appearance since Wimbledon. This time around Nadal has not been away from the tour as he heads to the China Open, but his performance in Beijing will draw similar interest as he hopes to end what has been an extremely disappointing season on a relative high note. Nadal is part of an incredible 500-point field that also features five-time champion Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer. The Japan Open, meanwhile, boasts Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori.

China Open

Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $2,700,510
Points: 500

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: Nadal could not have asked for a better draw as he begins fall swing. As the No. 3 seed in Beijing the Spaniard was vulnerable to landing in Djokovic’s half of the bracket, but that did not come to fruition. Instead, Nadal finds himself on the bottom side with Berdych, against whom he is 19-4 lifetime. Berdych may have a tough time just making it to the semis because he will be coming off a long week in Tokyo. Not only is the Czech in the title mach, but it also got postponed from Sunday until Monday because of rain. The beneficiary could be Ivo Karlovic. Amazingly enough, Karlovic opens with Berdych’s final opponent—Guillermo Garcia-Lopez—before possibly facing Berdych himself in round two.

After kicking off his campaign against Chinese wild card Di Wu, Nadal could face Vasek Pospisil in the last 16 and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semis. In addition to Berdych and Karlovic, possible semifinal opponents for the 14-time major champion include David Goffin and Fabio Fognini.

Djokovic should be able to sleepwalk through two matches before some big-hitting trouble looms later in the tournament. The world No. 1 could run into John Isner in the quarterfinals and Milos Raonic in the semis. Isner, though, has a tough opener on his hands with Dominic Thiem. In a relatively weak quarter, Raonic is unlikely to have much difficulty reaching the last eight—at which point he may face Ferrer.

First-round upset alert: Thomas Bellucci over (4) David Ferrer. Ferrer will be making a quick turnaround after capturing his fourth title of the year in Kuala Lumpur. The world No. 8 is 6-1 lifetime against Bellucci, but only one of their last four meetings has resulted in a straight-set win for Ferrer. A more rested Bellucci has advanced at least one round in each of his four most recent tournaments. Thiem also has a good opportunity against the sixth-seeded Isner, but that is just about an even matchup and could hardly be considered an upset.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, John Isner, David Goffin, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, John Millman, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Cold: Rafael Nadal, Lukas Rosol, Adrian Mannarino, Viktor Troicki, Pablo Cuevas

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over John Isner, Milos Raonic over David Ferrer, Jack Sock over Rafael Nadal, and David Goffin over Ivo Karlovic

Semifinals: Djokovic over Raonic and Goffin over Sock

Final: Djokovic over Goffin

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Rakuten Japan Open

Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,263,045
Points: 500

Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
Defending champion champion: Kei Nishikori

Draw analysis: By Beijing standards, the Tokyo draw is a borderline disappointment. By more realistic 500-point standards, it is undeniably intriguing. A remarkably deep field includes 10 of the top 22 players in the world, and that does not even account for Jeremy Chardy, Benoit Paire, Borna Coric, Nick Kyrgios, Fernando Verdasco, Alexander Dolgopolov, and Marcos Baghdatis.

A loaded but also up-for-grabs section of the bracket features first-rounders between Verdasco and Baghdatis, Richard Gasquet and Roberto Bautista Agut, plus Grigor Dimitrov and Paire in addition to Kyrgios. Familiar foes Gasquet and Kyrgios could collide in the last 16. Whoever reaches the semis is likely to encounter two-time champion Nishikori. The Japanese fan favorite, however, may meet Cilic for a quarterfinal rematch of the 2014 U.S. Open final. The Nishikori-Cilic quarter is also home to Coric, Dolgopolov, Bernard Tomic, Steve Johnson, and Donald Young.

Wawrinka leads the way as the No. 1 seed in a softer half of the draw. Count on the Swiss coasting into the quarterfinals before running into Kuala runner-up Feliciano Lopez. Gilles Simon should enjoy a similarly smooth road to the last eight in advance of a potential date with either Kevin Anderson or Jeremy Chardy. Anderson and Chardy—who are once again playing doubles with each other this week—are in a huge-serving 16^th of the bracket in which the winner of Anderson vs. Gilles Muller will battle the winner of Chardy vs. Sam Groth.

First-round upset alert: Benoit Paire over (8) Grigor Dimitrov. The good news for Paire fans is that he retired only due to a headache against Jerzy Janowicz last month in St. Petersburg. That bad news for Paire fans is…well…that he retired only due to a headache. You never know what this guy is going to bring to the table, but when motivated he can obviously be dangerous. Paire recently upset Nishikori at the U.S. Open during a run to the fourth round. Dimitrov is in the midst of a woeful year and his new partnership with coach Franco Davin began with a second-round loss to Benjamin Becker last week in Kuala Lumpur.

Hot: Stan Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic, Feliciano Lopez, Jeremy Chardy

Cold: Grigor Dimitrov, Radek Stepanek, Mikhail Youzhny, Fernando Verdasco

Quarterfinal predictions: Feliciano Lopez over Stan Wawrinka, Gilles Simon over Jeremy Chardy, Richard Gasquet over Marcos Baghdatis, and Kei Nishikori over Marin Cilic

Semifinals: Simon over Lopez and Nishikori over Gasquet

Final: Nishikori over Simon

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