Basel R2 preview and pick: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

Nadal 2 USOIt was the unseeded player who had a much easier time advancing to the Basel second round, but both Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov managed to set up a blockbuster encounter on Wednesday. A place in the quarterfinals is at stake.

Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers when they collide in round two of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Wednesday night.

Nadal is sweeping the head-to-head series 6-0, including 3-0 on hard courts. Only their first-ever meeting came indoors, with the Spaniard surviving 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 at the 2009 Rotterdam event. Dimitrov took a set in each of their first four encounters, but Nadal blitzed through the last two. The current world No. 7 cruised 6-2, 6-2 last year in the Rome semifinals and 6-3, 6-4 earlier this season in the Madrid quarters.

This showdown came perilously close to being denied by none other than Lukas Rosol. The big-hitting Czech stormed out of the gates against Nadal on Monday and served for a straight-set win. Leading 6-1, 5-4, 30-0, however, Rosol cracked at the finish line and Nadal eventually prevailed 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4) after two hours and 16 minutes.

“It was a very tough match emotionally,” Basel’s No. 3 said after scraping past Rosol in what was a predictably contentious battle. “At the same time, it’s a great victory. It’s important for me to have these kinds of comebacks. I’ve been in these situations more times than I would like this year, so I’m happy to win a match like this.”

Nadal may be in the midst of a disappointing year overall, but he is a solid 9-2 since the U.S. Open.

Not unlike his opponent, Dimitrov will take a win any way he can get it these days. The 28th-ranked Bulgarian pocketed a refreshingly routine one on Tuesday, easing past Sergiy Stakhovsky 6-3, 6-4 without facing a single break point. Dimitrov is 31-20 for what has been a rough 2015 campaign and he is a similarly mediocre 5-4 since the start of the U.S. Open.
Dimitrov
Although the former world No. 8 is far more dynamic and overall better player than Rosol, he cannot trouble Nadal in the same way. Rosol blasted Nadal off the court for a set–and almost two–on Monday, just as he had done for three out of five sets at Wimbledon in 2012. Dimitrov has never been able to do so and his current form suggests nothing will change in this one.

With a match under his belt, Nadal should raise his level considerably and defeat Dimitrov for a seventh straight time.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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46 Comments on Basel R2 preview and pick: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

    • Why do people always make allowances for Stan when he loses. Did he make zero effort in the 2nd set as well or did Dr Ivo win that fair and square?

      When Rafa beat Stan in straight sets which many couldn’t see before the match, the excuse was that Stan wasn’t trying. Had Rafa lost everyone would have gone to town on his form. I’m not saying you would, ed, but you get the drift.

  1. Regarding the match, I only watched the first set. Rafa seemed to serve poorly and looked a bit slow but he somehow came back from behind to win the first set.

    Dimi is one player who always caused Rafa problems and all their matches needed to go the distance except their Rome match last year. However, Rafa always came out the winner and thats good enough imo. A win is a win, even the no.1 player this year had to win ugly several times, and the no.2 or 3 player lost in his first match at a Masters event. Rafa survives, and thats most important.

    Another day another match, Rafa survives to fight another day or some more days. Vamos Rafa!

    • i wonder if any other H2H on tour has a greater percentage of final-set matches (with at least as many meetings as Nadal and Dimitrov have had)

    • Lucky,

      I assume that it’s you in the post @ 9:55 am because it sounds like you. If so, I am in complete agreement! Glad you see it that way, too! A win is a win is a win. So what if it wasn’t pretty. The other top players have had ugly wins many times. It’s just the way it is. As you said, Dimi has always given Rafa trouble in their matches. I don’t know why I didn’t think this one would go three sets, even with Dimi not being in his best form. He has the game to take it to Rafa, with his big serving and that powerful forehand. Rafa struggled in this match, getting broken in his first service games in all three sets. But the fact is that he came back to win the match!

  2. Regarding the match, I only watched the first set. Rafa seemed to serve poorly and looked a bit slow but he somehow came back from behind to win the first set.

    Dimi is one player who always caused Rafa problems and all their matches needed to go the distance except their Rome match last year. However, Rafa always came out the winner and thats good enough imo. A win is a win, even the no.1 player this year had to win ugly several times, and the no.2 or 3 player lost in his first match at a Masters event. Rafa survives, and thats most important.

    Another day another match, Rafa survives to fight another day or some more days. Vamos Rafa!

    • Agree, luckystar. IMO, winning this kind of match is more productive for Rafa whilst he is trying to regain his mental fortitude. He is proving that whatever he is doing to help his mental strength is working.

  3. I only saw the last game when Rafa was serving for the set…unfortunately I have my own trainings to conduct and cannot watch Rafa at 8 pm…I’m gonna watch the recording now but I think get pretty good picture reading your comments here…the fact is that Rafa had to fight hard yet again…I thought Dimi would cause problems so nothing new there…it’s important that Rafa keeps wining these matches…this year he had lost so many matches that he should have won…hope the wining pattern continues even if the wins are ungly sometimes…I can live with it… 🙂

    I still hold my opinion that Rafa must change his game…it becomes obvious that he can no longer rely on the baseline shots and has to change midway through the match in order to beat his opponents who suddenly seem to read through his current game…he said in one of his interviews that he is working on the changes and I believe him…

    I also notice Annacone is taking so much interest in Rafa, commenting on him and tweeting…I think he would make good second coach to Rafa joining efforts with Uncle T….please Toni consider it! I think it would pay off…

    Vamos Rafa!

    • re: Annacone. Not on board but acting as a consultant from time to time. In the on court interview last night Rafa admitted changing his style of play is causing him problems but he is perservering in the hope it will pay off next year.

      Rafa has always tended to start slowly and build momentum during the match. As far back as I remember he has also been prone to playing a decent first set then letting his opponent back into the match in the next.

      The positive from last night was the way he charged out for the last set and tamed Dimitrov. He was more aggressive, he found his first serve and he piled on the pressure to outplaly Dimitrov on every count – including winning 59% of the total points.

      It may have been ugly to watch, and Rafa was visibly disappointed he didn’t play better, but he is making progress slowly but surely. A few weeks ago he would almost certainly have lost that match.

  4. Yep, Rafa is trying to change some parts of his game; hes trying to hit flatter, trying to be more aggressive in his ROS and trying to move closer to the baseline but I feel he should step inside the court and also moves to the net more often and not just occassionally. Its still a WIP and I hope his intention is to one day plays more inside the court, the way Novak does if not mostly inside, the way how Fed does it.

    I keep mentioning how aggressive Rafa was when young and not afraid to move inside the court to attack esp on HCs but since his successes on clay from 2005 he had not been that aggressive anymore. I do hope he can be as aggressive as during his 2013 at least, and also makes more ventures to the net. I think Annacone is a good choice, he did help Fed to play more up the court during his stint as Fed’s coach. The difference in the way Fed played after getting in Annacone was obvious, as Fed did play more inside the court mid 2009 and after.

  5. Many tennis matches are won and lost on a knife edge. When Rafa lost to Raonic after failing to close out the match many praised Raonic and put Rafa down. The other day Rafa won against Rosol who was poised to win the match and he still gets criticised. Damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

      • Haha. Me actually and a bunch more. We were right of course. Early 2015 prior to more injuries, Raonic’s level peaked. He’d made many improvements under Ljubicic but has since regressed dramatically with injuries and will drop to No. 18 after pulling out of Paris next week. At the same time Rafa’s game had pretty much bottomed out and Raonic played an amazing third set.

        hawkeye63 says:
        March 21, 2015 at 1:30 am
        No. He played a excellent third set. He never would have won that match 12 months ago. Rafa played too passively doubting himself on break points and match points as I predicted and Milos grew stronger as the match progressed.

        Chris Fowler ✔ @cbfowler
        Raonic >> nervous Nadal in crucial moments. 3MP saved, crashes Big4 party in tomorrow’s semis. Milos stepped up. FedFans smiling.
        10:05 PM – 20 Mar 2015

        Ben Rothenberg @BenRothenberg
        Milos Raonic has made quarterfinals or better at 8 of last 10 Masters 1000 events. #believeinthesleeve #lamancheneflanchepas

        Juan José Vallejo @jjvallejoa
        Kinda amazed how much of a copy of the Brisbane SF that was. Raonic’s confidence grew so slowly…but irrepressibly. Like a tide.
        9:49 PM – 20 Mar 2015

  6. hawkeye, don’t you know that Ricky picked Federer over Wawrinka for the title in the tournament predictions? You weren’t around at the time so you must have missed it.

    • Well I just hope that you not comparing “picked” with “taking for granted”.

      Don’t you?
      Or do you.
      No you did.
      You just said that Ricky picking Stan to get to the final was taking his pick over Karlovic for granted.

      Ok. Good.

      (Hint: it’s not, it’s just a pick.)

  7. hawkeye, I refer you to my comment below:

    nadline10 says:
    October 25, 2015 at 9:04 pm
    “Stan has a bridge to cross in his first round match strewed with aces served by Dr Ivo from the top of a tree. Let’s see him cross that bridge first before we put him in the final. Stan leads their h2h 5:1 but every match was close.”

    • nadline, I refer you to Ricky’s comment below:

      Ricky Dimon says:
      October 28, 2015 at 3:02 pm
      i mean there is always some concern with Rafa these days, but I would far more worried about Stan facing Ivo

      There is a difference between “pick” and “take for granted”.

      But what you are doing is called a strawman argument as it is not what Ricky or anyone did.

      Don’t you? Or do you.

  8. A short description of the match on the tournament website:
    http://www.swissindoorsbasel.ch/de-de/News/All-News/ArtMID/3158/ArticleID/22589/Nadal-Stays-Perfect-Against-Dimitrov

    Excerpts:
    ¤¤ Nadal Stays Perfect Against Dimitrov.
    Rafael Nadal remained perfect against Grigor Dimitrov on Wednesday, outplaying the Bulgarian for the seventh straight time at the Swiss Open Basel 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.
    The highly anticipated second-round match-up between the former Basel quarter-finalists saw the 24-year-old Dimitrov get out of the blocks in a hurry, breaking his No. 3-seeded opponent to open the match. But Nadal would equalise with a break in the eighth game, reeling off nine of 12 points to level the set at 4-all when a Dimitrov transition volley failed to clear the net. …
    Nadal, who improved to 54-17 on the year, has shown some steely resolve in back-to-back matches, having rallied from 1-6, 3-5 down on Monday to defeat Lukas Rosol 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4)…¤¤

  9. The issue is how Rafa lost to Raonic. That is a match that Rafa would have and should have won. There is a reason why Rafa has never lost to Raonic. But that was earlier this year, when Rafa was snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, when he was losing matches he would normally win. He had every chance to win that match, but this was to be a pattern that would be repeated in other losses, notably to Fog especially in Rio and then most painfully in the USO. We should keep in mind that up to that point, Rafa had never lost a slam match when he was up two sets. Then there was the loss to Verdasco, a guy who hasn’t beaten Rafa since Madrid when they had that blue ice skating rink surface.

    I always believed that Rafa being his normal self would have beaten Raonic, no question. It’s true that matches can turn on a knife edge and that’s the point. When it’s that close, Rafa is the one who ends up winning. He’s built his brilliant career on winning matches by a hair or winning when he should have lost. That’s part of his greatness.

    Now that Rafa is coming back. We are seeing him win matches that he would surely have lost a few months ago. That singular quality of refusing to lose, willing himself to win, has now reappeared. It’s a good thing! 🙂

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